AEON Biopharma (AEON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $31.38M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 273.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 0.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.39
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 5
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 25,303,059
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 605,674
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 273,237
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.63
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-9.09% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/23/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/23/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (limited/absent revenue, persistent cash burn, negative equity and leverage risk). Offsetting factors include improving technical momentum, a low reported P/E (though less reliable given earnings volatility), and a positive corporate update around regulatory progress and debt reduction/financing actions.

Positive Factors

Regulatory progress — FDA Type 2a meeting

Holding the FDA BPD Type 2a meeting is a durable procedural milestone that clarifies the analytical review path for ABP-450 under the 351(k) biosimilar pathway. Official meeting minutes will inform required studies and reduce regulatory uncertainty, which materially de-risks development planning over the next several months.

Scientific validation and manufacturing scale

Analytical data showing identical amino-acid sequencing plus a globally approved, scaled manufacturing platform (approvals in 69 countries) provide structural credibility to AEON’s biosimilar strategy. This reduces product development and supply-chain risk and supports longer-term competitiveness versus peers in the Botox biosimilar market.

Capital structure actions to reduce debt and fund program

Shareholder approval to exchange up to $15M of convertible notes and the PIPE first closing proceeds ($1.79M) materially improve funding flexibility and simplify capitalization. These actions reduce near-term refinancing risk and support uninterrupted execution of ABP-450 analytical work, strengthening the runway to key program milestones.

Negative Factors

Lack of meaningful revenue

Essentially no recent revenue signals AEON remains a pre-commercial, discovery/development-stage company dependent on external financing. Without product sales, the firm lacks internally generated cash to fund operations, making sustained R&D and advancement of ABP-450 contingent on successful capital raises over the coming months.

Negative shareholders' equity and elevated leverage

Negative equity and materially higher debt create a fragile solvency profile that limits financial flexibility. This structural weakness raises refinancing and covenant risk, can constrain strategic options, and increases sensitivity to additional dilution or creditor negotiations over the medium term as development spending continues.

Persistent cash burn and weak cash flow

Consistently negative operating and free cash flow point to structural cash consumption from R&D and operations. Even with modest improvement in 2024, ongoing cash burn necessitates recurrent financing, which can dilute shareholders and constrain the company's ability to scale development or commercial efforts without external capital in the coming months.

AEON Biopharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AEON Biopharma, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development botulinum toxins for the treatment of debilitating medical conditions. It also develops 900 kDabotulinum toxin complex, ABP-450, for migraine, cervical dystonia, and gastroparesis. The company was formerly known as ALPHAEON Corporation and changed its name to AEON Biopharma, Inc. in December 2019. AEON Biopharma, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

AEON Biopharma makes money primarily through the development and eventual commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company generates revenue by advancing its drug candidates through clinical trials, securing regulatory approvals, and subsequently marketing these drugs to healthcare providers and institutions. Key revenue streams include potential product sales, licensing agreements, and strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies that may provide milestone payments and royalties. AEON's financial success is significantly influenced by the outcomes of its clinical trials and its ability to navigate the regulatory landscape effectively.

AEON Biopharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials indicate a high-risk early-stage profile: essentially no recent revenue, negative EBIT/EBITDA in TTM, consistently negative operating and free cash flow (cash burn), and a balance sheet constrained by negative stockholders’ equity with meaningful debt. While 2024 and near-breakeven TTM net income are modest positives, fundamentals still point to ongoing reliance on external funding.

Income Statement

AEON’s income statement is weak, with essentially no revenue in the most recent periods (including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), which makes profitability metrics uninformative. Earnings have been highly volatile—large losses in 2021–2023, a one-off looking profit in 2024, and near breakeven net income in TTM—but operating profitability remains pressured, with negative EBIT and EBITDA in TTM. Overall, the trajectory suggests an early-stage profile with limited commercial scale and inconsistent earnings power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows elevated financial risk: stockholders’ equity is negative across all periods provided, which reduces flexibility and is a key weakness for solvency. Debt has risen materially from 2023 to 2024 and remains significant in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), while total assets are relatively small, indicating a thin capital base. While the debt-to-equity figure is distorted by negative equity, the underlying message is clear—leverage against a negative equity position increases refinancing and funding risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow quality is weak, with operating cash flow and free cash flow consistently negative across every period shown, including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). TTM free cash flow deterioration versus the prior period (negative free cash flow growth) points to increasing cash burn, which can pressure future dilution or financing needs. A modest positive is that cash flow trends improved from 2023 to 2024 (less negative), but the business remains structurally cash-consuming.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.52M
Gross Profit	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.52M
EBITDA	-16.39M	-27.73M	-52.74M	-48.36M	-36.88M	-15.51M
Net Income	-3.00K	42.01M	-384.63M	-52.56M	-55.64M	-32.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.73M	3.14M	6.84M	10.78M	6.44M	21.21M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.93M	13.00K	5.16M	9.75M	5.13M	20.17M
Total Debt	18.25M	12.96M	278.00K	131.53M	86.89M	72.16M
Total Liabilities	28.61M	31.71M	159.89M	281.19M	230.26M	224.45M
Stockholders Equity	-19.87M	-28.57M	-153.04M	-287.50M	-234.94M	-208.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.22M	-20.29M	-47.83M	-35.89M	-28.60M	-9.46M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.22M	-20.29M	-47.83M	-35.58M	-28.43M	-9.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.00K	0.00	0.00	-306.00K	-170.00K	-1.26M
Financing Cash Flow	18.61M	15.15M	14.00M	40.51M	13.56M	24.57M

AEON Biopharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEON, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.12, above the 50-day MA of 1.09, and above the 200-day MA of 0.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AEON.

AEON Biopharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GLTO	56 Neutral	$1.91B	-2.62	-114.81%	―	―	37.42%
AEON	54 Neutral	$31.38M	0.25	―	―	―	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
RNAZ	49 Neutral	$9.08M	-0.04	-1763.01%	―	―	96.75%
IMNN	48 Neutral	$10.68M	―	-233.50%	―	―	57.97%
APM	41 Neutral	$6.59M	-2.30	-9.02%	―	―	-1979.68%
XTLB	39 Underperform	$6.40M	-7.14	―	―	―	65.45%

AEON Biopharma Corporate Events

AEON Biopharma Advances Biosimilar Program and Debt Reduction

On January 21, 2026, AEON Biopharma reported that it had held its scheduled Biosimilar Product Development Type 2a meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regarding ABP-450, an important procedural step expected to guide the next phase of its biosimilar development program once official meeting minutes are received. That same day, shareholders approved a series of November 2025 financing and capital-structure proposals, enabling the exchange of up to $15 million of Daewoong-held senior secured convertible notes into equity and new securities, substantially reducing AEON’s outstanding debt, simplifying its capital structure, and paving the way for a second closing of its private placement financing expected in the week of January 26, 2026, leaving the company better positioned to fund operations and advance its biosimilar strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AEON) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AEON Biopharma stock, see the AEON Stock Forecast page.

AEON Biopharma Releases Updated Investor Presentation Under Reg FD

On January 12, 2026, AEON Biopharma, Inc. made a new corporate presentation available in the investor relations section of its website and indicated that management may use this material in future meetings about the company. The company emphasized that the information in this presentation, while informative for investors and other stakeholders, is being furnished rather than filed for securities law purposes, meaning it is not subject to certain Exchange Act liabilities and will only be incorporated into other regulatory filings if specifically referenced, a distinction that shapes the legal framework around how the disclosed information can be relied upon.

The most recent analyst rating on (AEON) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AEON Biopharma stock, see the AEON Stock Forecast page.

AEON Biopharma Announces Exchange Agreement with Daewoong

On December 15, 2025, AEON Biopharma Inc. announced an Exchange Agreement with Daewoong Pharmaceuticals, involving the exchange of previously issued convertible notes for common stock, a new convertible note, and warrants. This agreement, subject to stockholder approval, aims to strengthen AEON’s financial position and involves Daewoong nominating a director to AEON’s board, potentially impacting the company’s governance and market strategy.

AEON Biopharma Releases New Corporate Presentation

On December 4, 2025, AEON Biopharma, Inc. released a corporate presentation in the investor relations section of its website. This presentation, which is also part of a Current Report on Form 8-K, is intended for use by the company’s management in future meetings and is not considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

AEON Biopharma Announces New Securities Purchase Agreement

On November 12, 2025, AEON Biopharma entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with investors for a private placement involving the issuance of common stock and warrants, with the first closing expected the week of November 17, 2025. The agreement includes a second closing contingent on stockholder approval and other conditions, and involves a term sheet with Daewoong Pharmaceutical for exchanging existing notes, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and market positioning.