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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)
NASDAQ:ADPT
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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
49Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
ADPT delivers solid Q4 results, sets what looks like a more achievable bar than in prior years, and raises the price target to $10.
Market Position
Analyst is upgrading ADPT to Buy from Neutral to reflect their solid position in the attractive MRD market with compelling initiatives to drive increasing penetration while limiting cash burn in their Immune Medicine business.
Negative Factors
Operational Concerns
Caution around speed of trial completion and delays due to political risk on FDA disruption of trial timing under new leadership.
Revenue Decline
Immune Medicine revenue decreased by 51% year over year, with a significant decline in Genentech amortization and lower pharma and academic services revenue.
Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.10B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.36
Revenue Growth5.10%
EPS Growth30.45%
CountryUS
Employees619
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength65
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.08
Shares Outstanding148,582,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,159,094
30 Day Avg. Volume2,019,958
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)7.04
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-11.50
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.57Price Target Upside27.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAdaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases. The company offers immunoSEQ, a platform and core immunosequencing product that is used to answer translational research questions, as well as to discover new prognostic and diagnostic signals; and T-Detect COVID for the confirmation of past COVID-19 infection. It also provides clonoSEQ, a clinical diagnostic product for the detection and monitoring of minimal residual disease in patients with multiple myeloma, B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, as well as available as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test for patients with other lymphoid cancers; and immunoSEQ T-MAP COVID for vaccine developers and researchers to measure the T-cell immune response to vaccines. In addition, the company offers a pipeline of clinical products and services that are used for the diagnosing, monitoring, and treatment of diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune conditions, and infectious diseases. It serves the life sciences research, clinical diagnostics, and drug discovery applications. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation has strategic collaborations with Genentech, Inc. for the development, manufacture, and commercialization of neoantigen directed T cell therapies for the treatment of a range of cancers; and Microsoft Corporation to develop diagnostic tests for the early detection of various diseases from a single blood test. The company was formerly known as Adaptive TCR Corporation and changed its name to Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation in December 2011. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdaptive Biotechnologies generates revenue through the sale of its diagnostic and research products. The primary revenue streams include the licensing of its immunoSEQ platform to research institutions and pharmaceutical companies for immune system analysis, as well as the sales of its clonoSEQ diagnostic test, which is used by healthcare providers to monitor minimal residual disease in patients with blood cancers. Additionally, Adaptive Biotechnologies earns revenue through partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies for the development of new immunotherapies and other immune-driven treatments. These collaborations often involve milestone payments and royalties, contributing to the company's earnings.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Adaptive Biotechnologies shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow, with negative EBIT, EBITDA margins, and free cash flow. High operating expenses and leverage are concerning, though the equity ratio indicates moderate financial stability.Income Statement
Adaptive Biotechnologies has experienced revenue growth but is still challenged by significant losses. The gross profit margin has remained relatively stable, but the net profit margin remains negative due to high operating expenses. There are signs of modest revenue growth, yet the company continues to struggle with profitability, as shown by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a declining equity base and increasing debt levels, leading to a higher debt-to-equity ratio. The return on equity is negative due to ongoing net losses. Despite these challenges, the equity ratio remains above average, indicating a moderate capital structure with some level of financial stability.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Adaptive Biotechnologies faces difficulties with cash flow, as indicated by negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, reflecting ongoing operational inefficiencies. The company needs to improve its cash generation capabilities to support long-term sustainability.30
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M | 98.38M | Gross Profit |
| 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M | 75.85M | EBIT |
| -162.55M | -227.03M | -200.19M | -208.97M | -152.82M | EBITDA |
| -128.76M | -189.27M | -167.98M | -193.34M | -144.34M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -159.49M | -225.25M | -142.46M | -205.61M | -139.64M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M | 688.27M | Total Assets |
| 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M | 1.12B | Total Debt |
| 89.39M | 229.43M | 108.00M | 111.74M | 107.86M | Net Debt |
| 41.47M | 164.37M | 17.97M | -27.32M | -15.57M | Total Liabilities |
| 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M | 373.15M | Stockholders Equity |
| 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M | 743.27M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M | -168.49M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M | -149.68M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M | -117.04M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M | 293.59M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Negative
7.52
Price Trends
7.89
Negative
6.98
Positive
5.68
Positive
Market Momentum
0.01
Positive
45.59
Neutral
24.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.71, below the 50-day MA of 7.89, and above the 200-day MA of 5.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
49 Neutral | $1.10B | ― | -62.41% | ― | 5.10% | 30.45% | |
49 Neutral | $12.57B | ― | -30.11% | ― | -2.93% | -4.69% | |
49 Neutral | $5.26B | ― | -4584.47% | ― | 31.04% | 16.91% | |
48 Neutral | $6.86B | 1.11 | -50.22% | 2.47% | 16.71% | 1.53% | |
48 Neutral | $1.07B | ― | -25.17% | ― | -1.28% | 30.29% | |
46 Neutral | $2.92B | ― | -19.20% | ― | -89.95% | -123.71% | |
46 Neutral | $1.95B | ― | -43.94% | ― | -83.18% | -144.95% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
7.52
4.54
152.35%
ILMN
Illumina
78.39
-46.51
-37.24%
CRSP
Crispr Therapeutics AG
33.14
-31.89
-49.04%
GH
Guardant Health
42.47
21.68
104.28%
TXG
10x Genomics
8.67
-27.44
-75.99%
BEAM
Beam Therapeutics
17.64
-12.91
-42.26%
Adaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -3.59% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive view of Adaptive Biotechnologies' performance for 2024, highlighting significant growth in MRD revenue, improvements in operational efficiency, and a strong cash position. These positive developments were slightly offset by challenges in the immune medicine segment and a conservative outlook for MRD Pharma Services.Highlights
MRD Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 42% versus 2023, driven by both clinical testing and pharma. This included a new gap fill rate for the clonoSEQ test and an ODAC vote supporting the use of MRD as a primary endpoint for multi myeloma therapies.
clonoSEQ Clinical Revenue and Test Volume Growth
Full year clonoSEQ clinical revenue grew 40% versus prior year, with a record high of 20,945 tests delivered in the fourth quarter, representing a 34% increase versus prior year.
Cash Position and Reduction in Cash Burn
Concluded the year with a cash position of $256 million and achieved a 40% reduction in cash burn from 2023.
Immune Medicine Progress
Significant progress in autoimmune programs with a nominated lead clinical indication and a focus on preclinical development of an antibody therapeutic candidate.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Management
Improved sequencing gross margin to 59% for the fourth quarter, total operating spend decreased by 11% year-over-year.
Lowlights
Decline in Immune Medicine Revenue
Immune medicine revenue was $7.3 million, down 51% from a year ago, driven by lower Genentech amortization and lower pharma and academic services.
Conservative Outlook for MRD Pharma Services
MRD Pharma Services growth is expected to be conservative due to new administration and broader impacts from the biopharma industry.
Company Guidance
During Adaptive Biotechnologies' Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings call, the company reported significant progress and financial metrics. MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) revenue increased by 42% compared to 2023, driven by a new gap fill rate for clonoSEQ tests set at $2,007, and the ODAC's favorable vote for MRD as a primary endpoint in multiple myeloma therapies. ClonoSEQ's clinical revenue grew 40% year-over-year, with a record 20,945 tests delivered in Q4, marking a 34% increase. Blood-based MRD testing rose by 55%, contributing to 41% of U.S. tests, while ordering healthcare providers grew by 30%. The company reported a robust cash position of $256 million at year-end and aims for an ASP of $1,300 per test in 2025, with MRD revenue projected to grow 24-30%. The guidance reflects a strategic focus on expanding blood-based testing, further integration with EPIC accounts, and leveraging commercial partnerships like the one with NeoGenomics.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.