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Adaptimmune Therapeutics (ADAP)
NASDAQ:ADAP

Adaptimmune Therapeutics (ADAP) AI Stock Analysis

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Adaptimmune Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:ADAP)

Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$0.50
▲(85.19%Upside)
The most significant factors impacting Adaptimmune's stock score are its challenging financial performance and valuation, reflecting ongoing losses and high financial risk. Technical analysis shows neutral momentum, while positive operational achievements in the earnings call provide some optimism for future growth. However, financial stability concerns remain a major risk.
Positive Factors
Launch Success
Management is executing the launch well with high apheresis numbers, opening accounts, fast turnaround time, 100% manufacturing success rate and 100% reimbursement.
Revenue Growth
Management anticipates full-year 2025 Tecelra revenue of $35-45M, surpassing the previous sellside consensus estimate of $25M.
Valuation
Adaptimmune is significantly undervalued, given its market cap of $66M.
Negative Factors
Financial Concerns
Capital overhang remains an ongoing concern and until further financial strategies and/or partnerships are implemented, the recommendation is to hold.
Market Challenges
Concerns around loan repayment and a depressed biotech market are impacting the company's outlook.
Operational Uncertainty
Management has expressed doubts about their ability to remain operational.

Adaptimmune Therapeutics (ADAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdaptimmune Therapeutics plc, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on providing novel cell therapies primarily to patients with solid tumors in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company's specific peptide enhanced affinity receptor (SPEAR) T-cell platform enables it to identify cancer targets. It is developing ADP-A2M4 that is in phase II clinical trials with SPEARHEAD-1 for synovial sarcoma and myxoid round cell liposarcoma indications (MRCLS); in phase II clinical trials with SPEARHEAD-2 for patients with head and neck cancer; and in phase I clinical trials for urothelial, melanoma, head and neck, ovarian, non-small cell lung, esophageal and gastric, synovial sarcoma, and MRCLS cancers. The company is also developing ADP-A2AFP, which is in phase I clinical trials for hepatocellular carcinoma; and ADP-A2M4CD8, which is in phase I clinical trial for SPEAR T-cells focusing on treating patients with lung, gastroesophageal, head and neck, ovarian, and bladder cancers. It has a collaboration and license agreement with GSK; third party collaborations with Noile-Immune Biotech Inc., Alpine Immune Sciences, Inc., and National Center for Cancer Immune Therapy in Denmark; strategic alliance agreement with the MD Anderson Cancer Center; and co-development and co-commercialization agreement with Universal Cells, Inc. Adaptimmune Therapeutics plc also has a strategic collaboration and license agreement with Genentech, Inc. and F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd to develop personalized allogeneic T-cell therapies utilizing aß T-cell receptors. Adaptimmune Therapeutics plc was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Abingdon, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdaptimmune Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through collaboration agreements, licensing deals, and milestone payments from pharmaceutical partners. These partnerships often involve upfront fees, research funding, and potential royalties on sales of successfully developed therapies. Additionally, the company may earn revenue from government grants or other funding initiatives aimed at supporting innovative cancer treatments. The success of its SPEAR T-cell therapies in clinical trials and regulatory approvals plays a crucial role in its ability to secure lucrative partnerships and revenue opportunities.

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -10.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong operational achievements with the successful launch of TECELRA, impressive manufacturing metrics, and expansion of treatment centers. However, ongoing financial concerns about cash runway tempered the positive aspects.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful TECELRA Launch and Revenue Guidance
Adaptimmune launched TECELRA and provided full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $35 million to $45 million, with 21 patients apheresed so far in 2025 and 14 treatments invoiced, generating $4 million in Q1 net sales.
Efficient Manufacturing Operations
Achieved 100% manufacturing success rate from the U.S. TECELRA manufacturing center, with no capacity issues and an average turnaround time from apheresis to lot release of 27 days, beating the target of 30 days.
Expansion of Authorized Treatment Centers (ATCs)
Adaptimmune has 28 centers accepting referrals for TECELRA and anticipates having the full network of approximately 30 ATCs operational by the end of 2025, a year earlier than expected.
Regulatory Engagement and Future Plans
Progressed regulatory plans for lete-cel, with rolling BLA initiation anticipated before the end of 2025. Lete-cel has the potential to double the addressable patient population in the sarcoma franchise.
Positive Market Reception
No patient denials for TECELRA have been reported, indicating effective patient access and positive reception from the medical community.
Negative Updates
Financial Concerns and Cash Runway
There is substantial doubt about Adaptimmune's going concern, with less than 12 months of cash runway affected by various factors including costs and strategic options.
Company Guidance
During Adaptimmune's first quarter 2025 business update call, CEO Adrian Rawcliffe provided guidance for TECELRA sales, projecting full-year revenue between $35 million and $45 million. This projection is supported by the 21 patients apheresed so far in 2025, including 13 in Q1 and 8 early in Q2. With 28 authorized treatment centers currently operating and plans to reach 30 by year-end, the company has invoiced for 14 TECELRA treatments, 6 in Q1 contributing to $4 million in net sales, and 8 more invoiced in early Q2. Notably, Adaptimmune achieved a 100% manufacturing success rate with an average turnaround time of 27 days, surpassing their 30-day target. The company anticipates peak sales of $400 million from its TECELRA and lete-cel sarcoma franchise, with lete-cel expected to launch in 2026, targeting broader patient populations without the need for antigen testing in myxoid liposarcoma cases.

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Adaptimmune Therapeutics shows significant revenue growth, but ongoing challenges with negative EBIT, net income, and weak cash flows highlight financial instability. The balance sheet reflects high financial risk with negative equity and declining cash reserves, impacting overall financial health.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Adaptimmune Therapeutics shows a significant improvement in revenue over the years, with a recent TTM revenue of $179.6M compared to $3.96M in 2020. However, the company consistently reports negative EBIT and net income, reflecting ongoing challenges in managing operational costs and achieving profitability. Gross profit margins have improved, but the net profit margin remains negative, indicating continued losses. Despite revenue growth, profitability concerns significantly impact the score.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The company's balance sheet reveals high financial risk, with negative stockholders' equity in the latest TTM, indicating liabilities exceed assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is unfavorable due to negative equity, and the return on equity is also negative, reflecting ongoing losses. Cash reserves have declined, adding to financial instability. The company's high liabilities and negative equity present substantial financial risks.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows, indicating the company's operations are not generating cash. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting increased cash consumption. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting inefficiencies in cash generation relative to reported losses. Despite some financing inflows, the cash flow position remains weak, impacting stability.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
179.64M178.03M60.28M27.15M6.15M3.96M
Gross Profit
176.16M177.96M50.42M-100.58M-104.94M-87.61M
EBIT
-65.23M-68.76M-138.04M-163.97M-162.25M-133.41M
EBITDA
-52.48M-52.66M-128.20M-155.59M-155.68M-125.81M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-69.89M-70.81M-113.87M-165.46M-158.09M-130.09M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
59.56M151.60M146.94M204.60M369.58M368.22M
Total Assets
158.07M245.96M282.62M328.92M469.55M451.14M
Total Debt
23.30M74.21M25.23M23.08M25.47M23.71M
Net Debt
-17.76M-16.93M-118.76M-84.96M-124.48M-33.17M
Total Liabilities
195.50M234.11M243.10M247.04M263.58M109.92M
Stockholders Equity
-37.43M11.85M39.51M81.88M205.96M341.23M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-110.22M-75.93M-145.76M-171.51M1.95M-56.50M
Operating Cash Flow
-107.86M-73.21M-140.88M-141.77M10.73M-53.59M
Investing Cash Flow
-17.44M-58.95M176.54M89.14M75.80M-278.92M
Financing Cash Flow
24.19M78.75M880.00K12.87M3.29M340.05M

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.27
Price Trends
50DMA
0.27
Negative
100DMA
0.38
Negative
200DMA
0.60
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
45.22
Neutral
STOCH
39.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADAP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.28, below the 50-day MA of 0.27, and below the 200-day MA of 0.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADAP.

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Adaptimmune Therapeutics disclosed 82 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptimmune Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
54
Neutral
$5.38B3.40-45.06%3.28%16.75%-0.02%
49
Neutral
$92.33M-55.14%-99.43%-69.40%
43
Neutral
$71.50M-273.36%883.05%62.93%
43
Neutral
$62.94M91.63%-55.47%24.92%
39
Underperform
$119.25M-73.85%-40.59%
37
Underperform
$59.97M-55.59%65.02%
35
Underperform
$86.68M-101.34%21.40%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ADAP
Adaptimmune Therapeutics
0.27
-0.77
-74.04%
CLSD
Clearside Biomedical
0.81
-0.42
-34.15%
CABA
Cabaletta Bio
1.75
-10.81
-86.07%
JSPR
Jasper Therapeutics
5.60
-18.74
-76.99%
ADAG
Adagene
1.98
-0.83
-29.54%
CNTX
Context Therapeutics
0.62
-1.35
-68.53%

Adaptimmune Therapeutics Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings
Adaptimmune’s Annual Meeting Focuses on Shareholder Engagement
Neutral
May 29, 2025

Adaptimmune Therapeutics held its annual general meeting on May 29, 2025, where shareholders voted on several resolutions, including the re-election of directors and the approval of the company’s 2025 Employee and Non-Employee Share Option Schemes. The meeting also determined that advisory votes on executive compensation will be held annually until 2031, reflecting the company’s commitment to shareholder engagement and governance practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADAP) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adaptimmune Therapeutics stock, see the ADAP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Adaptimmune Therapeutics CFO Departure Terms Revised
Neutral
Apr 14, 2025

Adaptimmune Therapeutics announced a variation to the previously agreed termination terms with their Chief Financial Officer, Gavin Wood. His employment will now end on August 31, 2025, due to redundancy, with severance terms including a 12-month salary, pro rata bonus eligibility, and healthcare benefits reimbursement.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Reports Q4 2024 Business Update
Positive
Mar 20, 2025

Adaptimmune Therapeutics provided a business update for Q4 and the full year 2024, highlighting the successful launch momentum of its sarcoma franchise product, Tecelra, with 10 patients apheresed in Q1 2025 and 3 in 2024. The company achieved all manufacturing and supply goals and is on track to expand its network of Authorized Treatment Centers by the end of 2025. Additionally, Adaptimmune completed a corporate restructure in February 2025, implementing cost reductions for its PRAME and CD70 programs, and is evaluating strategic options to maximize shareholder value. The company aims for profitability by 2027 while addressing concerns about its ability to continue as a going concern.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.