Airbnb (ABNB) AI Stock Analysis

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Airbnb

(NASDAQ:ABNB)

76Outperform

Airbnb's overall stock score of 76 reflects its strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and cash flow management, which are its main strengths. Technical analysis indicates some bearish trends, and the valuation suggests a premium price. While earnings call insights show strategic growth plans, they also highlight slower growth and regulatory hurdles. These factors combine to yield a score that suggests cautious optimism, with substantial potential if challenges are navigated successfully.

Positive Factors

Growth Opportunities

Growth investments in expansionary markets, relaunching of experiences and re-investment in core markets provide multiple paths to achieve top line growth.

Technological Advancements

Ongoing technology advancements at ABNB are leading to increased bookings and higher conversion rates.

Negative Factors

Leisure Travel Demand

February may have seen a softening in leisure travel demand.

Market Expectations

AirDNA's Q1:25 tracking shows slight-to-modest downside to Street numbers for Room Nights Booked and Bookings, but upside for Revenue.

Airbnb (ABNB) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$67.03B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)5.69M

Price to Earnings (P/E)25.6

Beta (1Y)1.35

Revenue Growth11.95%

EPS Growth-44.02%

CountryUS

Employees7,300

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength55

IndustryTravel Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.13

Shares Outstanding432,876,650

10 Day Avg. Volume6,114,337

30 Day Avg. Volume5,691,332

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)7.32

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)43.60

P/FCF Ratio43.60

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$157.52

Price Target Upside29.84% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering33

Airbnb Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAirbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform that enables hosts to offer stays and experiences to guests worldwide. The company's marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences. It primarily offers private rooms, primary homes, or vacation homes. The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc. and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc. in November 2010. Airbnb, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyAirbnb generates revenue primarily through service fees charged to both guests and hosts on each booking facilitated through its platform. Guests typically pay a service fee ranging from 0% to 20% of the booking subtotal, while hosts are charged a service fee of around 3% for each reservation. Additionally, Airbnb offers a 'Host-Only Fee' option for professional hosts, which ranges from 14% to 16%. The company also earns money through its 'Airbnb Experiences' service, which allows hosts to offer activities and tours, with Airbnb earning a commission on each experience booked. Significant partnerships with property management companies and tourism boards also contribute to its earnings, enhancing its market presence and expanding its service offerings.

Airbnb Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Airbnb's financial performance is robust, characterized by strong revenue growth, high profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with low leverage, contributing to its financial stability. While net income has decreased, the overall financial health remains strong, positioning Airbnb well for future growth.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Airbnb has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 12% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating robust demand. The gross profit margin stands at 83.06%, showcasing effective cost management. Net profit margin is at 23.85%, down from the previous year due to lower net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 22.98%, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.24, suggesting prudent leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 31.47%, indicating excellent shareholder returns. However, the equity ratio is moderate at 40.14%, suggesting a balanced asset financing mix. Overall, the balance sheet reflects strong financial health with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Airbnb's free cash flow has grown by 16.33%, highlighting efficient cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is at 1.71, showing solid cash conversion from earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio also stands at 1.71, indicating effective cash management and strong liquidity.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.10B	9.92B	8.40B	5.99B	3.38B
	Gross Profit
9.22B	8.21B	6.90B	4.84B	2.50B
	EBIT
2.55B	1.52B	1.80B	429.00M	-3.59B
	EBITDA
2.55B	2.23B	2.10B	-64.36M	-4.38B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.65B	4.79B	1.89B	-352.00M	-4.58B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
10.61B	10.07B	9.62B	8.32B	6.39B
	Total Assets
20.96B	20.64B	16.04B	13.71B	10.49B
	Total Debt
2.29B	2.30B	2.34B	2.42B	2.33B
	Net Debt
-4.57B	-4.57B	-5.04B	-3.65B	-3.15B
	Total Liabilities
12.55B	12.48B	10.48B	8.93B	7.59B
	Stockholders Equity
8.41B	8.16B	5.56B	4.78B	2.90B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
4.52B	3.88B	3.40B	2.16B	-667.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
4.52B	3.88B	3.43B	2.19B	-629.73M
	Investing Cash Flow
-616.00M	-1.04B	-28.00M	-1.35B	79.59M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.57B	-2.43B	-689.00M	1.43B	2.94B

Airbnb Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price121.32

Price Trends

50DMA

131.99

Negative

100DMA

132.87

Negative

200DMA

132.54

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-3.82

Positive

RSI

37.60

Neutral

STOCH

22.45

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABNB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 121.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 121.34, below the 50-day MA of 131.99, and below the 200-day MA of 132.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABNB.

Airbnb Risk Analysis

Airbnb disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Airbnb reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Airbnb Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABNB	76 Outperform	$67.03B	25.56	31.95%	―	11.95%	-44.02%
MMYT	75 Outperform	$10.76B	46.03	23.09%	―	28.51%	367.34%
EXPE	74 Outperform	$18.02B	15.63	79.84%	0.29%	6.64%	69.85%
BKNG	72 Outperform	$139.29B	24.58	-146.32%	0.86%	11.11%	47.03%
TCOM	67 Neutral	$34.37B	15.55	12.91%	0.54%	18.12%	69.44%
TRIP	61 Neutral	$1.57B	646.67	0.55%	―	2.63%	-58.77%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.74B	10.16	-1.06%	4.15%	1.27%	-16.61%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ABNB

Airbnb

121.32

-44.10

-26.66%

TCOM

Trip.com Group Ltd. Sponsored ADR

54.79

4.92

9.87%

EXPE

Expedia

161.68

28.74

21.62%

MMYT

Makemytrip

98.01

27.40

38.80%

BKNG

Booking Holdings

4,616.32

1,008.58

27.96%

TRIP

TripAdvisor

12.61

-14.40

-53.31%

Airbnb Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -13.98% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While Airbnb, Inc. showcased strong financial performance, free cash flow, and platform enhancements, they also face challenges such as slower growth expectations for Q1 2025 and regulatory hurdles in key urban markets.

Highlights

Strong Financial Performance

Airbnb, Inc. reported a 12% year-over-year revenue growth to $2.5 billion for Q4 2024. Net income was $461 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $765 million. The full-year adjusted EBITDA totaled $4 billion, with a margin of 36%.

Record Free Cash Flow

Airbnb, Inc. generated $458 million of free cash flow in Q4 and $4.5 billion for the full year, representing a free cash flow margin of 40%.

Cohost Network Expansion

The cohost network has grown to almost 100,000 listings in just four months, leading to listings managed by cohosts earning twice as much as those without.

Technology and Platform Enhancements

Airbnb, Inc. rebuilt its platform with a new technology stack, leading to a smoother guest and host experience. This includes new listing management tools and a unified messaging platform.

Successful Stock Repurchase Program

Airbnb, Inc. repurchased $838 million of Class A common stock during Q4 and $3.4 billion for the full year, with $3.3 billion remaining on the repurchase authorization.

Lowlights

Growth Rate Headwinds

For Q1 2025, Airbnb, Inc. expects to deliver revenue growth of only 4% to 6% year-over-year due to FX headwinds and calendar impacts.

Profitability Challenges

Airbnb, Inc. expects adjusted EBITDA margin to decline in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, driven by revenue impacts.

Regulatory and Market Challenges

Airbnb, Inc. continues to face challenges in urban markets, particularly in places like New York City where strict regulations have impacted business.

Company Guidance

The guidance provided in the Airbnb earnings call for Q4 2024 highlighted several key metrics and strategic directions for the company. Airbnb reported Q4 revenue of $2.5 billion, marking a 12% year-over-year growth, with net income of $461 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $765 million, resulting in a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $4 billion and a margin of 36%. The company generated $458 million in Q4 free cash flow, contributing to a full-year total of $4.5 billion, with a free cash flow margin of 40%. Looking ahead, Airbnb expects Q1 2025 revenue between $2.23 billion and $2.27 billion, representing 4% to 6% year-over-year growth, or 7% to 9% excluding FX headwinds. For 2025, Airbnb plans to invest $200 million to $250 million in launching new businesses, with an anticipated full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 34.5%. The company aims to continue expanding its global market presence and enhancing its core services, while also introducing new offerings to drive long-term growth.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.