The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, safety achievements, and strategic growth in midstream and international markets. However, it also acknowledged challenges in refining margins, high turnaround costs, and regulatory uncertainties. Overall, the sentiment is cautiously optimistic with significant positive achievements overshadowing current challenges.

Company Guidance

During the Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided comprehensive guidance and insights into various metrics. MPC reported an adjusted earnings per share of $0.77 for the fourth quarter and $9.51 for the full year, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.1 billion for the quarter and $11.3 billion for the year. The refining and marketing segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA per barrel of $5.33, maintaining a refining utilization rate of 92% and a commercial capture rate of 99%. The midstream segment, including MPLX, recorded a 6% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, while MPLX's quarterly distribution rose by 12.5%, reaching an annualized cash distribution of $2.5 billion to MPC. The company also emphasized its capital allocation priorities, with a 2025 capital outlook of $1.25 billion for MPC, excluding MPLX, and a $2 billion capital outlook for MPLX. MPC highlighted a peer-leading capital return of $10.2 billion, representing a 23% capital return yield. Looking forward, MPC anticipates a record demand for refined products in 2025, expecting improved refining margins in the year's second half due to announced refinery closures. The company remains focused on safe and reliable operations, commercial performance, and structural advantages in the U.S. refining industry, positioning itself for competitive success amid evolving market conditions.

Strong Financial Performance

MPC reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.77 for the fourth quarter and $9.51 for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $11.3 billion, with a return of $10.2 billion in capital to shareholders.

Record Safety and Environmental Performance

Achieved the lowest OSHA recordable injury rate and strongest environmental performance in the last five years.

Midstream and MPLX Growth

MPLX increased its quarterly distribution by 12.5%, with a full-year adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% and a compound annual growth rate of 7% since 2021.

Strategic Investments and Future Projects

Announced significant projects like the Galveston Bay distillate hydrotreater, Los Angeles Refinery upgrades, and the Robinson Product Flexibility Project, all promising returns of over 20%.

Export and Commercial Execution

MPC's export strategy set records on volume and margin, enhancing capture rates to 119% in the fourth quarter.

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

The upcoming earnings date is based on a company’s previous reporting, and may be updated when the actual date is announced

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MPC Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
May 06, 2025	2025 (Q1)	0.51 / -	2.58	―	―	―
Feb 04, 2025	2024 (Q4)	0.02 / 0.77	3.98	-80.65% (-3.21)
Nov 05, 2024	2024 (Q3)	0.99 / 1.87	8.14	-77.03% (-6.27)
Aug 06, 2024	2024 (Q2)	3.09 / 4.12	5.32	-22.56% (-1.20)
Apr 30, 2024	2024 (Q1)	2.54 / 2.58	6.09	-57.64% (-3.51)
Jan 30, 2024	2023 (Q4)	2.19 / 3.98	6.65	-40.15% (-2.67)
Oct 31, 2023	2023 (Q3)	7.75 / 8.14	7.81	4.23% (+0.33)
Aug 01, 2023	2023 (Q2)	4.55 / 5.32	10.61	-49.86% (-5.29)
May 02, 2023	2023 (Q1)	5.55 / 6.09	1.49	308.72% (+4.60)
Jan 31, 2023	2022 (Q4)	5.67 / 6.65	1.3	411.54% (+5.35)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

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MPC Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
Feb 04, 2025	$146.16	$156.01	+6.74%
Nov 05, 2024	$143.28	$147.85	+3.19%
Aug 06, 2024	$159.43	$168.13	+5.46%
Apr 30, 2024	$196.33	$177.94	-9.37%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.

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