Humana's Stable MLR Projections Amid Margin Pressures and Regulatory Challenges Support Hold RatingWe ticked down 2025E EPS for the guide, maintained 2026E, and rolled out 2027E. We reiterate Neutral given the uncertainties. 100bps to MA margins is nearly $6 of EPS From 2019 to now, insurance segment pre-tax margins have steadily decreased from 3.6% to 1.1%. Our forecasts are below consensus on insurance pre-tax margins, as the Street expects offsets to the lost Stars to be more impactful in 2026, increasing afterwards. We estimate that if MA margins expand 100bps, it would be a close to $6/share tailwind to 2025E EPS. In PDP, an equivalent increase to margin would add 25c to 2025E EPS (Exhibit 5). Star ratings and the ongoing court case are catalysts which could boost margins, especially in the MA segment.