United States Steel (X) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.22B
• Dividend Yield: 0.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -13.48%
• EPS Growth: -56.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22,053
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 226,405,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,570,156
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,913,745
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.59
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 11.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $42.60
• Price Target Upside: -5.63% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

United States Steel faces significant financial performance volatility, with its strong technical indicators offset by valuation concerns and strategic uncertainties due to the blocked merger with Nippon Steel. Investors should be cautious of the high P/E ratio and low dividend yield, while considering the potential impact of ongoing legal proceedings on the company's strategic direction.

Positive Factors

Partnership Opportunities

X can benefit from Nippon's cash infusion and technological aid.

Profitability and Cash Flow

US Steel's investments in mini-mill/EAF assets are expected to significantly boost profitability and cash flow, adding more than $800 million in run-rate EBITDA once fully operational.

Strategic Transformation

US Steel's transformation into a hybrid integrated/mini-mill producer positions the company better for the long term.

Negative Factors

Market Concerns

Nippon's involvement in X is considered a long-term negative for the broader U.S. steel market, assuming the combination keeps Mon Valley running.

Stock Valuation

The current share price is nearing fair fundamental value, leading to a downgrade in rating from Outperform to Market Perform.

Transaction Uncertainty

Significant uncertainty remains regarding the Nippon/US Steel transaction, as former President Trump's stance on foreign ownership is unpredictable.

United States Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United States Steel Corporation produces and sells flat-rolled and tubular steel products primarily in North America and Europe. It operates through four segments: North American Flat-Rolled (Flat-Rolled), Mini Mill, U. S. Steel Europe (USSE), and Tubular Products (Tubular). The Flat-Rolled segment offers slabs, strip mill plates, sheets, and tin mill products, as well as iron ore and coke. This segment serves customers in the service center, conversion, transportation, automotive, construction, container, appliance, and electrical markets. The Mini Mill segment provides hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated sheets and electrical products. This segment serves customers in the automotive, appliance, construction, container, transportation, and service center markets. The USSE segment provides slabs, strip mill plates, sheets, tin mill products, and spiral welded pipes. This segment serves customers in the construction, container, appliance and electrical, service center, conversion, oil, gas, and petrochemical markets. The Tubular segment offers seamless and electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing products, as well as standard and line pipe and mechanical tubing products primarily to customers in the oil, gas, and petrochemical markets. The company also engages in the real estate business. United States Steel Corporation was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

U.S. Steel generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products. The company's key revenue streams include flat-rolled steel, tubular products, and the sale of raw materials like coke and iron ore. U.S. Steel's integrated steelmaking process allows it to produce a range of high-quality steel products, which are sold to customers in the automotive, construction, appliance, and energy sectors. Additionally, strategic partnerships and joint ventures, such as those in the mining and steel processing sectors, contribute to its earnings by enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market reach. The company's financial performance is also influenced by factors such as global steel demand, raw material prices, and trade policies.

United States Steel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

United States Steel has experienced significant volatility in its financial performance, characteristic of the cyclical steel industry. While the company has maintained a strong equity position, profitability and cash flow metrics have been inconsistent. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and managing capital expenditures is crucial for stabilizing financial performance.

Income Statement

The company has shown a volatile revenue growth trajectory, with significant fluctuations over the years. While there was a substantial revenue and profit improvement from 2020 to 2021, recent years have shown a decline in revenue and profits. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have been inconsistent, reflecting the cyclical nature of the steel industry. The current EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest moderate profitability but with room for improvement compared to past years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio that has improved significantly over time. The return on equity has declined recently, indicating a reduction in profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a stable financial base, although total assets have not grown significantly.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow performance has been unstable, with free cash flow showing negative growth in recent periods. Operating cash flow relative to net income indicates some operational cash generation capability. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, highlighting cash flow challenges in capital expenditure management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
15.64B	18.05B	21.07B	20.27B	9.74B
	Gross Profit
1.58B	2.25B	4.29B	5.74B	183.00M
	EBIT
240.00M	1.90B	3.31B	4.44B	-823.00M
	EBITDA
1.38B	2.04B	4.21B	5.45B	-384.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
384.00M	895.00M	2.52B	4.17B	-1.17B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.37B	2.95B	3.50B	2.52B	1.99B
	Total Assets
20.23B	20.45B	19.46B	17.82B	12.06B
	Total Debt
174.00M	4.34B	4.08B	4.03B	5.05B
	Net Debt
-1.19B	1.39B	578.00M	1.50B	3.06B
	Total Liabilities
8.79B	9.31B	9.15B	8.71B	8.18B
	Stockholders Equity
11.35B	11.05B	10.22B	9.01B	3.79B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-1.37B	-476.00M	1.74B	3.23B	-587.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
919.00M	2.10B	3.50B	4.09B	138.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.28B	-2.57B	-1.68B	-840.00M	-563.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-199.00M	-98.00M	-868.00M	-2.75B	1.58B

United States Steel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 45.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For X, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.64, above the 50-day MA of 39.34, and above the 200-day MA of 37.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for X.

United States Steel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MT	73 Outperform	$20.00B	14.31	2.60%	1.81%	-8.56%	68.36%
STLD	73 Outperform	$16.64B	11.28	17.27%	1.70%	-6.68%	-32.96%
NUE	71 Outperform	$26.65B	13.65	9.79%	2.10%	-11.46%	-53.33%
TX	62 Neutral	$5.20B	73.52	-0.44%	12.59%	0.81%	-108.00%
X	57 Neutral	$10.22B	28.88	3.43%	0.45%	-13.48%	-56.94%
CLF	48 Neutral	$3.93B	―	-10.36%	―	-12.78%	-301.57%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.43B	-2.83	-21.77%	3.74%	4.16%	-28.83%

United States Steel Corporate Events

United States Steel Files Lawsuit Over Blocked Merger

On December 18, 2023, United States Steel Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement with Nippon Steel North America, Inc., and its subsidiaries. However, on January 3, 2025, President Biden issued an order prohibiting the merger, prompting the company and Nippon Steel Corporation to file a lawsuit challenging the order. Subsequently, President Trump directed a de novo review of the merger by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to assess national security risks, with a recommendation expected by May 21, 2025.

Spark’s Take on X Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, X is a Neutral.

United States Steel’s overall stock score reflects its financial volatility and strategic challenges. Despite strong technical indicators suggesting positive price momentum, the high P/E ratio and low dividend yield present valuation concerns. Moreover, the blocked merger with Nippon Steel adds uncertainty, impacting strategic growth opportunities. Investors should weigh these factors when considering the stock.

To see Spark’s full report on X stock, click here.

United States Steel Projects Q1 2025 Financial Guidance

On March 20, 2025, United States Steel Corporation announced its first quarter 2025 financial guidance, projecting adjusted net earnings per diluted share between ($0.53) and ($0.49), and an adjusted EBITDA of approximately $125 million. The company highlighted improvements in its Mini Mill segment due to increased volumes from Big River Steel and Big River 2, while the European segment showed better pricing but faced subdued demand. The Tubular segment is under pressure from weak pricing, yet future improvements are anticipated. The company also praised President Trump’s tariff policies and its partnership with Nippon Steel, indicating a positive outlook for its future operations.

U.S. Steel Merger with Nippon Blocked by Executive Order

United States Steel Corporation had previously entered into a merger agreement with Nippon Steel North America, which would result in U.S. Steel becoming a wholly owned subsidiary. However, the merger was prohibited by an executive order from the President of the United States, and a deadline was set for abandoning the merger, which has been extended to June 18, 2025.