Western Alliance (WAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.96B
• Dividend Yield: 1.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 6.30%
• EPS Growth: 25.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,562
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 2.59
• Shares Outstanding: 109,879,135
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,807,715
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,343,327
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.73
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.21
• 1Y Price Target: $101.64
• Price Target Upside: 24.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.95B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $94.00 ▲(15.25% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is supported by constructive earnings-call outlook and guidance alongside an attractive P/E-based valuation. Offsetting these positives are weaker financial-quality signals driven by highly volatile cash flow and only middling technical momentum with the stock below key short-term moving averages.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Profitability Growth

The company delivered record NII and net revenue in FY2025 with an ~18% net margin and rising EPS, showing durable earnings power from core banking activities. Consistent revenue scaling and improved operating leverage support sustainable cash flow generation and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.

Strong Loan & Deposit Franchise

Robust organic loan and deposit growth broadens the funding base and supports interest income stability. Scale gains across commercial, specialty and mortgage channels enhance cross-sell opportunities and move the franchise toward its $100B asset target, reinforcing durable franchise momentum and funding resilience.

Improving Capital & Liquidity

Strengthened capital metrics and a Tier 2 subordinated issuance bolster regulatory buffers and financial flexibility. Higher total capital and a CET1 target around 11% reduce stress vulnerability, enabling opportunistic buybacks and strategic investments while supporting long-term growth without immediate capital constraints.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Generation

Multi-year inconsistency in operating and free cash flow creates uncertainty around sustainable internal funding for growth, capital returns, and loss absorption. This volatility limits predictability of shareholder distributions and makes the franchise more reliant on steady earnings and capital markets for strategic initiatives.

Elevated Credit Stress & Charge-offs

Material criticized assets and elevated charge-off guidance indicate ongoing credit remediation that can compress earnings and capital if resolutions are slower or losses larger than planned. Persistent credit work-throughs also introduce earnings lumpyness and heighten execution risk over the coming quarters.

Rate-Sensitivity & Lumpy Fee Mix

Reliance on assumed rate cuts to deliver deposit-cost relief creates macro sensitivity: absent easing, NII and margins may underperform. High ECR beta and lumpy settlement fees increase earnings volatility and hamper predictability of noninterest income, complicating medium-term planning and margin stability.

Western Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Western Alliance Bancorporation operates as the bank holding company for Western Alliance Bank that provides various banking products and related services primarily in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It operates in Commercial, Consumer Related, and Corporate & Other segments. The company offers deposit products, including checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as fixed-rate and fixed maturity certificates of deposit accounts; and treasury management and residential mortgage products and services. It also offers commercial and industrial loan products, such as working capital lines of credit, loans to technology companies, inventory and accounts receivable lines, mortgage warehouse lines, equipment loans and leases, and other commercial loans; commercial real estate loans, which are secured by multi-family residential properties, professional offices, industrial facilities, retail centers, hotels, and other commercial properties; construction and land development loans for single family and multi-family residential projects, industrial/warehouse properties, office buildings, retail centers, medical office facilities, and residential lot developments; and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides other financial services, such as internet banking, wire transfers, electronic bill payment and presentment, lock box services, courier, and cash management services. Further, it holds certain investment securities, municipal and non-profit loans, and leases; invests primarily in low-income housing tax credits and small business investment corporations; and holds certain real estate loans and related securities. The company operates 36 branch locations, as well as loan production offices. Western Alliance Bancorporation was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Western Alliance generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with banking services. The company offers commercial loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans, which collectively contribute significantly to its interest income. Additionally, Western Alliance earns non-interest income from service fees related to deposit accounts, treasury management services, and investment banking activities. Key revenue streams include loan origination fees, mortgage servicing fees, and transaction fees from cash management services. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with various industry players, which help expand its service offerings and customer base, further enhancing its earnings potential.

Western Alliance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (74) reflects solid 2025 profitability and continued revenue growth, and the balance sheet (63) shows improving capitalization and moderating leverage. However, the cash flow profile is a major drag (34) due to multi-year volatility and inconsistent cash conversion, making overall fundamentals improved but less reliable.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully from 2020 to 2025, with 2025 revenue up about 5% versus 2024. Profitability remains solid in 2025 (about an 18% net margin) and earnings improved versus 2024, indicating resilience after a weaker 2023–2024 margin profile. The key weakness is a clear step-down in margins from the exceptionally strong 2020–2022 period, suggesting profitability is less robust than earlier-cycle levels despite ongoing growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows improving capitalization with equity growing from 2023 to 2025, and leverage moderating versus the 2022–2023 peak (debt-to-equity down to ~0.87 in 2025 from ~1.37 in 2023). Returns on equity are steady-to-decent (~12–13% in 2024–2025) but remain below the 2022 high, implying less efficient profitability than prior years. Overall leverage is still meaningful for a regional bank and bears monitoring even with the recent improvement.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile: operating cash flow and free cash flow were strongly positive in 2022 and positive again in 2025, but deeply negative in 2021 and 2024 and negative in 2023. 2025 free cash flow declined sharply versus the prior year growth rate shown, highlighting instability in cash conversion year-to-year. While 2025 cash flow is a positive sign, the multi-year inconsistency is the main concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.28B	5.02B	4.26B	2.96B	2.00B
Gross Profit	3.22B	2.95B	2.50B	2.42B	1.92B
EBITDA	1.21B	1.11B	1.02B	1.39B	1.17B
Net Income	969.00M	787.70M	722.40M	1.06B	899.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	92.77B	80.93B	70.86B	67.73B	55.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.03B	8.53B	12.74B	8.13B	6.71B
Total Debt	6.64B	6.63B	8.30B	7.38B	2.54B
Total Liabilities	84.83B	74.23B	64.78B	62.38B	51.02B
Stockholders Equity	7.65B	6.71B	6.08B	5.36B	4.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.79B	-2.83B	-442.90M	2.10B	-2.72B
Operating Cash Flow	-2.68B	-2.74B	-328.60M	2.25B	-2.65B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.96B	-5.97B	-2.16B	-13.13B	-14.71B
Financing Cash Flow	12.13B	11.23B	3.02B	11.41B	15.21B

Western Alliance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 81.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.90, below the 50-day MA of 88.51, and below the 200-day MA of 82.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WAL.

Western Alliance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SSB	75 Outperform	$9.70B	9.50	10.68%	2.38%	33.87%	12.26%
WBS	74 Outperform	$11.30B	10.06	10.65%	2.49%	4.78%	21.68%
WTFC	74 Outperform	$9.77B	11.37	12.11%	1.40%	3.58%	13.93%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WAL	65 Neutral	$8.96B	9.44	13.50%	1.80%	6.30%	25.28%
UMBF	65 Neutral	$9.07B	10.14	12.59%	1.37%	38.81%	10.38%

Western Alliance Corporate Events

Western Alliance Announces 2026 Investor Day Strategy Event

Western Alliance Bancorporation, a top-performing U.S. banking company whose main unit Western Alliance Bank delivers tailored business banking and consumer products across more than 30 industries nationwide, operates with $90 billion in assets and has been repeatedly recognized by American Banker, Bank Director and Extel for its leadership and governance. These accolades underscore its positioning as a leading national bank for business customers seeking specialized financial expertise.

On Feb. 20, 2026, Western Alliance announced plans to hold its 2026 Investor Day on May 12, 2026, in New York City, where executive leaders will outline the bank’s strategy, operating priorities and financial outlook. The invitation-only event, which will feature a live webcast and archived replay for broader market access, is poised to give investors deeper insight into the company’s long-term direction and performance focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (WAL) stock is a Buy with a $106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Alliance stock, see the WAL Stock Forecast page.

Western Alliance declares quarterly dividends on common, preferred

At a Board of Directors meeting held on February 5, 2026, Western Alliance Bancorporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.42 per share on its common stock, payable on March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 20, 2026, underscoring the bank’s continued commitment to returning capital to common shareholders. The Board also approved a quarterly cash dividend of $106.25 per share, or $0.265625 per depositary share, on its 4.250% Fixed Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, payable on March 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 13, 2026, maintaining predictable income streams for preferred investors and signaling ongoing financial stability in its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (WAL) stock is a Buy with a $106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Alliance stock, see the WAL Stock Forecast page.

Western Alliance Adopts Executive Stock and Bonus Deferral Plan

On December 19, 2025, Western Alliance Bancorporation’s Compensation Committee approved the establishment of the Western Alliance Bancorporation Executive Stock and Bonus Deferral Plan, an unfunded, nonqualified deferred compensation arrangement for select members of its Executive Leadership Team. The plan allows designated executives to defer 0%, 25%, or 50% of eligible annual cash bonuses and certain stock awards into deferred stock units, which follow the original vesting schedule and can earn dividend equivalents, with no company contributions permitted. Upon separation from service, executives receive deferred amounts in two or three annual installments, while any vested balance is paid in a lump sum to beneficiaries upon death, and deferred annual cash bonuses remain subject to the company’s Dodd-Frank Clawback Policy, signaling a tighter alignment of executive compensation with long-term shareholder and regulatory expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (WAL) stock is a Buy with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Alliance stock, see the WAL Stock Forecast page.

Western Alliance Expands Board with Strategic Appointments

On December 10, 2025, Western Alliance Bancorporation appointed Dr. Michael Papay and Mr. Clarke Starnes III to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to fifteen members. Dr. Papay, a cybersecurity expert, and Mr. Starnes, a former Chief Risk Officer, bring significant expertise in cybersecurity and risk management as the company approaches the $100 billion asset threshold. This strategic move is part of Western Alliance’s preparation to become a Large Financial Institution, aligning with its National Commercial Bank Strategy to ensure strong performance and growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (WAL) stock is a Buy with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Alliance stock, see the WAL Stock Forecast page.

Western Alliance Issues $400M Subordinated Notes

On November 24, 2025, Western Alliance Bank issued $400 million in 6.537% Fixed Rate Reset Subordinated Notes due in 2035. The proceeds from this issuance, amounting to $397.2 million after discounts and commissions, will be used for general corporate purposes, including growth support and securities management. The Notes are designed to qualify as Tier 2 capital for regulatory purposes, with interest payable semi-annually and redemption options available under specific conditions. These Notes are subordinated obligations, ranking below the Bank’s senior indebtedness and are sold exclusively to institutional accredited investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (WAL) stock is a Hold with a $86.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Alliance stock, see the WAL Stock Forecast page.