Valvoline (VVV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.25B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 5.64%
• EPS Growth: 0.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 127,315,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,772,381
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,989,240
• PEG Ratio: 17.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 120.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.84
• 1Y Price Target: $41.00
• Price Target Upside: 20.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.04B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(5.79% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is driven primarily by acceptable but risk-capped fundamentals: solid operating margins and improving cash flow are weighed down by very high balance-sheet leverage. Earnings-call commentary is supportive due to strong Q1 execution and reiterated guidance, but near-term integration/interest-cost headwinds and internal-controls remediation add risk. Technically, near-term momentum is weak (below the 20-day average with subdued RSI/Stoch), and valuation support is limited given the negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Sustained Profitability

Consistently healthy margins across gross, EBIT and net levels indicate durable unit economics for routine maintenance services. Strong core profitability supports reinvestment in store growth, funds franchise support, and provides a buffer versus volume swings inherent in vehicle service businesses.

Improving Cash Generation

Recent uplift in operating and free cash flow demonstrates the business generates recurring cash from steady service demand. Improved cash conversion increases flexibility to fund integrations, reduce leverage, or invest in customer-facing initiatives without relying solely on external financing.

Strategic Network Expansion

Acquiring and integrating Breeze accelerates scale in a fragmented quick‑lube market, expanding recurring service footprint and franchise royalties. A larger, branded network enhances purchasing scale, cross‑selling, and operational best‑practice transfer that can sustainably lift systemwide revenue per vehicle.

Negative Factors

Very High Leverage

An elevated debt base versus a small equity cushion materially increases solvency and refinancing risk. High leverage magnifies earnings volatility, constrains capital allocation, raises required free cash flow for interest and principal, and leaves less flexibility for organic investment or shareholder returns.

Rising Interest Burden from Acquisition

Higher projected pretax interest and elevated leverage after the Breeze deal will reduce free cash flow and depress reported profitability. Management’s need to prioritize deleveraging (target ~2.5x) delays discretionary actions like buybacks, limiting near‑term capital allocation flexibility and earnings retention.

Internal Controls Remediation

A material weakness in business‑process controls creates governance and reporting risk that can impair investor confidence, increase audit and remediation costs, and complicate financing or M&A activity. Until fully remediated, it may constrain management’s ability to execute complex integrations and issue timely, unquestioned financials.

Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and heavy duty; antifreeze/coolants for original equipment manufacturers; functional and maintenance chemicals, such as brake fluids and power steering fluids, as well as specialty coatings for automotive and industrial applications; and oil and air filters for light-duty vehicles. It also provides batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs. In addition, the company operates Valvoline instant oil change service centers. As of September 30, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 1,594 quick-lube locations under the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand in the United States and the Great Canadian Oil Change brand in Canada. The company also serves car dealers, general repair shops, and third-party quick lube locations, as well as through distributors and licensees. It has operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Valvoline generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive lubricants and related products in both the DIY and DIFM segments. The DIY segment earns income from retail sales of engine oils, maintenance products, and other automotive supplies through various channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and distribution networks. The DIFM segment contributes revenue through its chain of Valvoline Instant Oil Change centers, where customers pay for oil change services and maintenance. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with automotive retailers and service providers, enhancing its market presence and distribution capabilities. Valvoline's focus on brand loyalty and customer service further solidifies its revenue streams.

Valvoline Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is solid (TTM gross margin ~39%, EBIT margin ~17%, net margin ~9%) and cash generation has improved (TTM OCF ~$321M; FCF ~$58M). However, the balance sheet is a major constraint with very high leverage (TTM debt ~$2.04B vs equity ~$308M; debt-to-equity ~4.9x) and historically volatile earnings/cash flows, which elevates financial risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is $1.76B with modest growth (+2.8%), showing continued top-line expansion but a clear slowdown versus the stronger growth seen earlier in the period. Profitability is solid and fairly stable on a core basis (TTM gross margin ~39%, EBIT margin ~17%, net margin ~9%), but margins are below the prior annual peak (FY2025 net margin ~12%). Net income has also been volatile across years (notably an outsized FY2023 result), which reduces confidence in the earnings run-rate even though current operating profitability looks healthy.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key weakness: TTM total debt is ~$2.04B against equity of ~$308M, implying very high balance-sheet leverage (debt-to-equity ~4.9x in the latest periods and even higher historically). While reported returns on equity are high, they are amplified by the small equity base rather than purely by operational strength. Total assets are ~$3.40B, but the elevated leverage profile increases sensitivity to interest rates, refinancing conditions, and any earnings downturn.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in the latest period with TTM operating cash flow of ~$321M, and free cash flow improved to ~$58M (strong growth vs the prior period). However, free cash flow conversion remains relatively thin versus earnings (TTM free cash flow is only ~13% of net income), suggesting working-capital, capex, or other cash uses are absorbing a meaningful portion of profits. Cash flow performance has also shown meaningful swings historically (including a year with negative operating and free cash flow), which keeps the cash-flow profile from scoring higher despite the recent improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.76B	1.71B	1.62B	1.44B	1.24B	1.04B
Gross Profit	678.10M	658.50M	618.80M	544.50M	476.40M	432.30M
EBITDA	391.60M	510.70M	367.20M	368.80M	284.80M	430.40M
Net Income	86.30M	210.70M	211.50M	1.42B	424.30M	420.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.40B	2.67B	2.44B	2.89B	3.42B	3.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.90M	51.60M	68.30M	756.60M	23.40M	122.60M
Total Debt	2.42B	1.67B	1.63B	2.07B	2.14B	2.07B
Total Liabilities	3.09B	2.33B	2.25B	2.69B	3.11B	3.06B
Stockholders Equity	307.60M	338.50M	185.60M	203.20M	306.60M	134.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	57.80M	38.00M	40.70M	-221.30M	152.20M	300.80M
Operating Cash Flow	320.80M	297.20M	265.10M	-40.80M	284.20M	403.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-896.50M	-201.10M	136.80M	2.04B	-207.60M	-399.90M
Financing Cash Flow	584.50M	-112.90M	-746.30M	-1.67B	-218.90M	-535.50M

Valvoline Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 34.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.32, below the 50-day MA of 34.94, and below the 200-day MA of 35.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VVV.

Valvoline Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$69.22B	11.90	15.90%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
VLO	69 Neutral	$71.31B	21.42	9.88%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
MPC	68 Neutral	$69.63B	12.26	24.01%	2.24%	-6.37%	-25.83%
SUN	68 Neutral	$13.54B	13.57	7.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
DINO	62 Neutral	$10.80B	14.84	6.25%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
VVV	56 Neutral	$4.25B	-28.28	28.57%	―	5.64%	0.96%

Valvoline Corporate Events

Valvoline Promotes Jordan Denny to Chief Accounting Officer

Effective March 6, 2026, Valvoline Inc. appointed Jordan M. Denny as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, succeeding Dione R. Sturgeon, who transitioned to the role of Vice President, Treasurer and Tax. Denny brings more than a decade of progressive finance, treasury, FP&A and corporate development experience at Valvoline and its former parent, most recently serving as Vice President, Corporate Development, Investor Relations & Treasurer, and his compensation package aligns him with other senior executives while reinforcing continuity in the company’s financial leadership structure.

Under his new role, Denny will receive an annual base salary of $319,520, be eligible for incentive pay equal to 40% of base salary, and has already been granted a $125,000 equity award for fiscal 2026 split evenly between time-based restricted stock units and performance stock units. Valvoline noted that Denny’s participation in standard executive benefit and severance plans, along with the absence of related-party transactions or family ties with other leaders, underscores a routine but strategically important internal promotion aimed at maintaining stability and governance in its finance organization.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline posts strong quarter amid Breeze acquisition gains

Valvoline reported that for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, net sales rose 11% to $462 million and system-wide same-store sales climbed 5.8%, while acquisition-driven store growth offset an FTC-mandated divestiture that produced a $32 million loss from continuing operations; adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $117 million, and adjusted EPS grew 16% to $0.37, reflecting the benefits of the 200 net stores added, including 162 from the Breeze acquisition, alongside a $1.7 billion debt load tied to the deal.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Shareholders Approve 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan

At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on January 28, 2026, Valvoline Inc. obtained shareholder approval for a new 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan, replacing its 2016 incentive plan and updating the company’s long-term compensation framework for executives and employees. Shareholders also elected all director nominees to one-year terms, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026, and supported holding annual advisory votes on executive compensation, with 92.2% of eligible shares represented, underscoring broad investor engagement and backing for the company’s governance and compensation policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Announces Retirement of Longtime Chief Financial Officer

Valvoline Inc. announced that Senior Vice President Mary E. Meixelsperger, who also served as the company’s Chief Financial Officer from June 2016 through May 19, 2025, retired from the company effective December 29, 2025. The leadership change closes a nearly nine-year tenure in Valvoline’s top finance role for Meixelsperger, marking a notable transition in the company’s senior management ranks, though the company emphasized its appreciation for her service and contribution to its financial stewardship.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Hosts Investor Update on Growth Strategy

On December 11, 2025, Valvoline Inc. will host an Investor Update in New York to discuss its business strategy and outlook. The company aims to drive growth by integrating Breeze Autocare’s Oil Changers stores and executing a growth strategy focused on enhancing shareholder value, expanding its network, and innovating to meet customer needs. Valvoline’s leadership emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation policy and the pursuit of synergies through acquisitions, positioning itself as a leader in the automotive services market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.