Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.26B
• Dividend Yield: 5.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 678.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.61
• Revenue Growth: 4.18%
• EPS Growth: -13.89%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22,300
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 1.86
• Shares Outstanding: 34,305,473
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 738,133
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 678,807
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: -69.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -304.20
• 1Y Price Target: $77.86
• Price Target Upside: 18.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.09B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $65.00 ▼(-1.35% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is primarily weighed down by deteriorating financial performance (TTM loss, sharply weaker cash generation, and elevated/rising leverage). Technicals provide a partial offset with moderately positive momentum, while valuation is mixed (strong yield but negative P/E). Recent commentary remains cautious due to sales declines and reduced guidance, despite a clearer profitability-improvement plan for 2026.

Positive Factors

Recurring revenue from resort management

Marriott Vacations earns recurring fees from resort management, owner assessments and exchange services that provide predictable cash inflows versus one-time VOI sales. This durable revenue mix supports cash coverage of fixed costs and cushions performance during weaker sales periods over the next 2–6 months.

Modernization program targeting margin uplift

The company’s modernization program aims for $150–$200M of run-rate EBITDA improvement through reorganization and efficiency gains (including $20M in HR/finance savings). If delivered, this materially improves structural margins and cash generation, improving resilience and funding priorities over the medium term.

Leadership change with incentive alignment

New CEO and COO with extensive industry experience plus pay-for-performance equity awards align management to multi-year EBITDA and share-price targets. This structural governance change should improve sales execution, cost discipline and capital-allocation focus across a multi-quarter turnaround horizon.

Negative Factors

Elevated and rising leverage

Leverage is high and increasing, with $5.68B of debt and debt-to-equity near 2.85x. That capital structure reduces financial flexibility, raises interest and refinancing vulnerability, and makes the company more sensitive to cyclical revenue swings and weaker VOI sales over the next several quarters.

Material deterioration in cash generation

Operating cash flow and FCF plunged year-over-year, leaving only modest positive FCF despite a net loss. This constrains capacity to fund investment, reduce debt, or sustain shareholder returns without further asset sales or additional financing, making near-term balance-sheet repair more challenging.

Contract sales decline and market concentration risk

Contract sales fell and underperformance concentrated in major markets like Orlando and Maui. Persistent declines in key destinations reduce sales conversion and financing volumes, pressuring development profit and securitization economics and raising the risk that recovery will be uneven across the portfolio.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation, a vacation company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership and related products. It operates through two segments, Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. The company manages vacation ownership and related products under the Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Residence Club, and Marriott Vacation Club Pulse brands. It also develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership and related products under The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club brand; and holds right to develop, market, and sell ownership residential products under The Ritz-Carlton Residences brand. In addition, the company offers exchange networks and membership programs, as well as provision of management services to other resorts and lodging properties through various brands, including Interval International, Trading Places International, Vacation Resorts International, and Aqua-Aston. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated approximately 120 properties in the United States and thirteen other countries and territories. The company sells its upscale tier vacation ownership products primarily through a network of resort-based sales centers and off-site sales locations. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Marriott Vacations Worldwide generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of vacation ownership interests (VOIs) and related financing. The company sells timeshare properties, which involves upfront payments from customers for the right to use a property for a specified period. Additionally, it earns income from the ongoing management of these properties, including maintenance fees paid by owners. Another significant revenue stream comes from financing options offered to customers, where the company provides loans for purchasing VOIs. Moreover, Marriott Vacations benefits from partnerships with other hospitality brands and travel companies, enhancing its market reach and driving additional sales through collaborative marketing efforts. Overall, the company's diversified revenue model and strategic alliances contribute significantly to its financial performance.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are pressured: TTM revenue fell 8.7% and results swung to a $308M net loss (net margin -6.7%). Leverage is high and rising (debt-to-equity ~2.85x) with negative ROE (-13.1%), reducing flexibility. Cash flow also weakened sharply (TTM FCF $13M vs. $148M in 2024), though it remained slightly positive.

Income Statement

Performance weakened meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue declined 8.7% and profitability swung to a net loss of $308M (net margin -6.7%). While gross margin held up reasonably (~34%), operating profitability deteriorated sharply versus 2024 (EBIT fell slightly but margins turned negative in the provided data, and EBITDA was roughly breakeven-to-negative). Positively, the company had been consistently profitable from 2021–2024 with improving scale post-2020, but the latest TTM results show a clear break in that trend.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and rising: total debt increased to $5.68B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) while equity declined to $1.99B, pushing debt-to-equity to ~2.85x (up from ~2.14x in 2024 and ~1.51x in 2021). Total assets are relatively stable (~$9.8B), but the combination of higher leverage and the TTM loss drove a negative return on equity (-13.1%). The balance sheet is not distressed on assets, but the capital structure leaves less room for earnings volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow dropped to $58M and free cash flow fell to $13M (down ~79% versus 2024). A key support is that free cash flow remained positive despite the net loss (free cash flow was about half the size of the loss), but the sharp step-down from prior years (e.g., $148M free cash flow in 2024 and $457M in 2022) highlights increased volatility and reduced financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.03B	4.97B	4.73B	4.66B	3.89B
Gross Profit	760.00M	1.85B	1.82B	1.99B	1.45B
EBITDA	19.00M	614.00M	678.00M	832.00M	437.00M
Net Income	-308.00M	218.00M	254.00M	391.00M	49.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.76B	9.81B	9.68B	9.64B	9.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	733.00M	197.00M	248.00M	524.00M	342.00M
Total Debt	5.75B	5.22B	5.14B	5.03B	4.49B
Total Liabilities	7.76B	7.37B	7.30B	7.14B	6.63B
Stockholders Equity	1.99B	2.44B	2.38B	2.50B	2.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.00M	148.00M	114.00M	457.00M	296.00M
Operating Cash Flow	28.00M	205.00M	232.00M	522.00M	343.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.00M	-115.00M	-112.00M	16.00M	-213.00M
Financing Cash Flow	241.00M	-132.00M	-401.00M	-486.00M	-317.00M

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 65.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VAC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.79, above the 50-day MA of 59.90, and above the 200-day MA of 64.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VAC.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MCRI	78 Outperform	$1.76B	17.27	18.68%	1.22%	4.61%	22.90%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HGV	60 Neutral	$3.36B	49.67	8.08%	―	5.98%	-34.77%
GDEN	56 Neutral	$730.19M	-118.26	-1.37%	3.71%	-12.25%	-84.89%
MTN	54 Neutral	$4.72B	5.69	51.86%	6.27%	3.06%	12.82%
PENN	50 Neutral	$1.87B	-2.53	-34.58%	―	8.24%	-77.54%
VAC	49 Neutral	$2.26B	-6.54	-13.14%	5.35%	4.18%	-13.89%

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Corporate Events

Marriott Vacations Highlights Q4 Losses, Strategic Refocus Plans

Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported fourth-quarter 2025 consolidated contract sales of $458 million and a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $431 million, or $12.43 per diluted share, driven by restructuring costs, modernization expenses and $546 million in non-cash impairment charges, while adjusted net income reached $68 million and adjusted EBITDA was $186 million. For full-year 2025, the company posted $1.8 billion in consolidated contract sales, a net loss of $308 million largely due to $577 million of non-cash impairment and other charges, adjusted net income of $276 million, adjusted EBITDA of $751 million, and returned $171 million to shareholders as it sharpened its 2026 focus on profitability, cost discipline, capital allocation, inventory reduction and cash flow improvement amid elevated leverage and substantial inventory and securitized debt.

Vacation Ownership segment results showed slightly lower revenues and contract sales with modestly higher adjusted EBITDA margins, as fewer tours and a small decline in volume per guest were partly offset by higher resort management and financing profit. The Exchange & Third-Party Management business faced revenue and adjusted EBITDA declines on softer Interval International exchange and Getaway activity and fewer active members, while corporate general and administrative costs rose, liquidity stood at $1.4 billion at year-end 2025 before a January 2026 convertible debt repayment, and the company executed a $470 million securitization and recorded extensive non-cash impairments on certain future phases, Legacy-Welk inventory and other assets following a comprehensive business review.

The company also indicated it would post a new investor presentation on February 26, 2026 in the investor relations section of its website, which it uses as a primary channel for disseminating material information and complying with disclosure requirements. Management highlighted the recent appointment of Mike Flaskey as president and chief operating officer as part of efforts to accelerate operational improvements and reposition the business for a stronger long-term trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (VAC) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation stock, see the VAC Stock Forecast page.

Marriott Vacations Names New CEO and President, Resets Strategy

On February 16, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s board appointed Matthew E. Avril, previously interim president and CEO, as chief executive officer and named industry veteran Michael A. Flaskey as president and chief operating officer, both effective immediately. Avril, with more than three decades of leadership across Starwood, Vistana and Diamond Resorts, will drive a reset focused on marketing and sales execution, profitability, cost discipline and capital allocation, while Flaskey, who has led Diamond Resorts and Hornblower Group, will oversee brand, commercial and operating functions to enhance owner lifetime value through an experience-based model.

In tandem with the leadership changes, the company introduced new executive compensation structures that anchor most long-term equity awards to ambitious three-year targets for share price and Adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing a pay-for-performance philosophy and tighter alignment between management incentives and shareholder outcomes. The appointments, announced publicly on February 17, 2026, signal an operationally focused turnaround agenda aimed at restoring growth, improving margins and strengthening Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s competitive position within the vacation ownership and broader hospitality market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VAC) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation stock, see the VAC Stock Forecast page.