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Txnm Energy, Inc. (TXNM)
NYSE:TXNM

TXNM Energy (TXNM) AI Stock Analysis

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TXNM

TXNM Energy

(NYSE:TXNM)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
â–²(0.15% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow quality (structurally negative free cash flow) and meaningful leverage, despite improved 2024 profitability. Technicals are mildly supportive with price above key moving averages and neutral momentum, but a high P/E and only moderate dividend yield weigh on valuation.
Positive Factors
Profitability rebound and strong 2024 operating margins
A clear profitability rebound in 2024 with a ~47% EBITDA margin and net income tripling versus 2023 indicates the business can generate material operating earnings. Sustained higher margins improve capacity to fund capex, service debt, and support regulated returns over multiple years.
Diversified renewable revenue streams and recurring contracts
Multiple revenue sources — installations, energy management services, and long‑term PPAs — create recurring and contracted cash inflows that are structurally more durable than one‑off project sales. This mix supports predictable demand and reduces single‑product concentration risk over 2–6 months and beyond.
Executive incentives tied to earnings growth and leverage metrics
Board adoption of pay‑for‑performance and multi‑year equity awards aligning pay with Incentive EPS and FFO/Debt incentivizes management to grow sustainable earnings while managing leverage. This alignment reduces agency risk and supports disciplined capital allocation and balance sheet improvement over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Structurally negative free cash flow history
Persistent negative free cash flow across 2020–2024 and a decline into negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 indicate the business requires ongoing external financing to fund growth and capex. That structural cash deficit constrains reinvestment and increases refinancing risk over time.
High leverage constrains financial flexibility
Debt-to-equity in the ~1.7–2.3x range for a regulated utility limits capacity to absorb shocks, raises interest and covenant sensitivity, and narrows strategic options. Elevated leverage increases the priority of deleveraging over growth and can raise the cost of capital for multi-year investments.
Reliance on subordinated and dilutive financing tools
Use of $350M junior subordinated convertible notes and an established $125M ATM program signal dependence on debt with subordination risk and potential equity dilution. Such financing raises long‑term funding complexity and may dilute shareholders or increase subordination risk for senior creditors.

TXNM Energy (TXNM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TXNM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. It operates through Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) segments. The PNM segment engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. The segment owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, and real estate. It generates electricity using coal, natural gas and oil, and nuclear fuel and waste, as well as solar, wind, geothermal, and battery storage energy sources. The TNMP segment provides regulated transmission and distribution services. The segment also owns and leases vehicles, service facilities, and office locations throughout its service territory. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers and end-users of electricity in New Mexico and Texas. The company was formerly known as PNM Resources, Inc and changed its name to TXNM Energy, Inc. in August 2024. TXNM Energy, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is based in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyTXNM Energy generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale and installation of renewable energy systems, such as solar panels and wind turbines. The company also earns money by providing energy management solutions that help clients optimize their energy usage, leading to cost savings. Additionally, TXNM may engage in power purchase agreements (PPAs) with commercial and industrial customers, where they supply energy at a fixed rate over a specified period, ensuring predictable cash flow. Significant partnerships with technology providers and governmental incentives for renewable energy projects further enhance TXNM's earnings potential, allowing them to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.

TXNM Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong growth metrics, successful regulatory approvals, and supportive legislative developments. However, challenges such as transmission pressures, insurance costs, and ongoing regulatory lag concerns were noted.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Ongoing Earnings and Growth Targets
Ongoing earnings for Q1 were $0.19, in line with expectations, affirming guidance for 2025 at $2.74 to $2.84 per share with a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%.
System Resiliency Plan Approval
Approval to invest and recover $546 million in capital improvements, enhancing system protection and response to extreme weather events.
TNMP System Peak and Load Growth
TNMP set a new system peak, 22% higher than last year's Q1, driven by a 9.7% increase in demand-based load, particularly in North and West Texas.
Legislative Support in New Mexico
Key bills passed to expedite infrastructure development, creating a wildfire task force, and allowing for site readiness to attract new businesses.
Regulatory Success at TNMP and PNM
Approval of $83 million transmission rate base investments and $176 million distribution rate-based investments, along with positive outcomes in rate reviews and resource filings.
Negative Updates
Transmission and Demand Charge Pressures
Lower transmission margins and higher demand charges from energy storage agreements impacted earnings, though mitigated by deferrals.
Insurance Premiums and Plant Outage Costs
Higher insurance premiums and timing of plant outage costs offset some earnings benefits.
Regulatory Lag Challenges
Discussions around regulatory lag and capital structure continue, with focus on rate design and addressing regulatory lag in Texas.
Potential Tariff Impacts
Tariffs are expected to have about a 2% impact, requiring ongoing adjustments in capital allocation.
Company Guidance
During the TXNM Energy Q1 2025 Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025 with an earnings per share (EPS) range of $2.74 to $2.84, alongside a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%. The company reported ongoing earnings of $0.19 per share for the first quarter, highlighting progress in regulatory approvals and capital investments. TXNM Energy's system resiliency plan, approved for $546 million, and the Permian Basin Reliability Study, involving a $750 million investment by 2030, were key highlights. The company noted a 22% increase in TNMP's system peak and a 9.7% growth in demand-based load, largely driven by commercial growth in North and West Texas. The legislative environment was favorable, with new bills passed to support infrastructure development and wildfire prevention. TXNM Energy plans to maintain its five-year capital plan, increasing from $600 million in 2025 to over $1 billion by 2028, to support a 17% rate base growth.

TXNM Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement trends are relatively steady with a clear profitability rebound in 2024, but financial flexibility is pressured by heavy leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.7–2.3x across 2020–2024) and persistently negative free cash flow (negative every year in 2020–2024, plus negative operating and free cash flow in 2025). Data inconsistencies in the latest year reduce confidence in near-term trajectory.
Income Statement
63
Positive
Revenue was broadly stable from 2020–2024 with modest growth in 2024, and profitability improved versus 2023 (net income rose from $88M to $243M) with solid operating profitability in 2024 (EBITDA margin ~47%). However, margins have been volatile over the cycle (notably weaker in 2023), and the 2025 annual revenue and margin fields appear missing/zeroed, limiting confidence in the latest-year trend despite positive EBIT and net income being reported.
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
The balance sheet shows heavy leverage for a regulated utility, with debt-to-equity around ~1.7–2.3x from 2020–2024, while returns on equity have been uneven (stronger in 2024, weaker in 2023). The 2025 annual snapshot is inconsistent (debt collapses to ~$3M while assets/equity remain large), suggesting data quality issues for the latest year; using the more consistent 2020–2024 history, leverage is a clear constraint even with stable utility assets.
Cash Flow
28
Negative
Operating cash flow was positive in 2020–2024 (~$486M–$567M), but free cash flow was negative every year (roughly -$193M to -$739M), indicating ongoing cash needs likely tied to capital investment. Cash generation also weakened sharply in 2025 with negative operating and free cash flow (about -$63M), and year-to-year free cash flow trends have been volatile, increasing reliance on external funding.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.17B1.97B1.94B2.25B1.78B
Gross Profit824.79M810.16M627.10M714.73M625.65M
EBITDA940.66M929.21M627.71M682.44M663.84M
Net Income151.36M242.68M88.35M170.06M196.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.35B11.55B10.59B9.63B9.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.62M4.50M2.21M4.08M1.10M
Total Debt2.60M5.83B4.99B4.39B3.87B
Total Liabilities953.99M8.95B8.18B7.37B6.78B
Stockholders Equity3.40B2.55B2.36B2.20B2.18B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-611.43M-738.88M-524.64M-345.27M-387.14M
Operating Cash Flow584.49M508.16M551.17M567.28M547.87M
Investing Cash Flow-1.22B-1.17B-1.09B-950.35M-952.26M
Financing Cash Flow642.52M684.35M537.10M386.04M357.56M

TXNM Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price58.91
Price Trends
50DMA
58.88
Negative
100DMA
58.10
Positive
200DMA
56.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
45.54
Neutral
STOCH
28.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXNM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 58.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.09, above the 50-day MA of 58.88, and above the 200-day MA of 56.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TXNM.

TXNM Energy Risk Analysis

TXNM Energy disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TXNM Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TXNM Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
$6.57B17.337.76%4.38%7.53%-17.59%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$12.21B17.228.91%4.15%5.70%-8.25%
64
Neutral
$9.82B31.159.89%3.82%18.03%29.46%
62
Neutral
$7.72B21.229.38%2.72%-1.58%8.49%
61
Neutral
$5.70B7.517.43%5.63%-25.78%-91.93%
50
Neutral
$6.41B-140.944.85%2.80%10.65%-10.67%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TXNM
TXNM Energy
58.82
9.10
18.30%
IDA
IdaCorp
140.58
29.01
26.00%
OGE
OGE Energy
47.59
4.91
11.51%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
100.96
13.27
15.13%
POR
Portland GE
52.00
10.45
25.16%
ENIC
Enel Chile SA
4.01
0.82
25.82%

TXNM Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
TXNM Energy Adopts 2026 Executive Incentive Compensation Plans
Positive
Mar 4, 2026

On February 25–26, 2026, TXNM Energy’s board and its Compensation and Human Capital Committee approved a 2026 Officer Annual Incentive Plan that ties named executive officers’ cash bonuses for the 2026 calendar year to achieving threshold levels of a non‑GAAP Incentive Earnings Per Share metric and specified corporate goals, with payout opportunities scaled as a percentage of base salary and subject to funding, pro rata rules and change‑in‑control protections. Over the same meetings, the board also adopted a 2026 Long‑Term Incentive Plan running from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2028, granting executives performance share opportunities linked to earnings growth and an FFO/Debt ratio and time‑vested restricted stock rights, reinforcing a pay‑for‑performance framework that emphasizes sustained earnings expansion, leverage management and retention of top leadership.

The annual plan’s structure, which withholds payouts unless TXNM exceeds a minimum Incentive EPS, is designed to ensure awards are supported by ongoing earnings rather than one‑off items. The long‑term plan’s mix of performance shares and staggered vesting of restricted stock rights through 2029 further aligns executives’ interests with long‑term shareholder value creation and balance sheet health, while the use of non‑GAAP metrics for internal measurement signals a focus on underlying operational performance separate from reported GAAP results.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXNM) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TXNM Energy stock, see the TXNM Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TXNM Energy Establishes $125 Million At-the-Market Program
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026

On March 3, 2026, TXNM Energy, Inc. entered into a distribution agreement with a syndicate of major banks that allows it to sell up to $125 million of common stock from time to time through at-the-market and other negotiated transactions. The shares may also be used in connection with forward stock purchase agreements, under which banks will borrow and sell stock to hedge, and TXNM Energy may later choose physical, cash, or net share settlement, giving the company flexible access to equity capital while introducing potential dilution and settlement obligations for existing shareholders.

The company will pay the sales agents a commission of up to 2% on any shares sold, and the arrangement is conducted under an existing automatic shelf registration that became effective on February 28, 2025. TXNM Energy is not obligated to sell any shares or enter into any forward agreements and may terminate the distribution agreement at any time, underscoring that the facility is a discretionary tool for future financing rather than a committed capital raise.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXNM) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TXNM Energy stock, see the TXNM Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TXNM Energy Opens Q1 2026 Convertible Notes Window
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

TXNM Energy has notified holders of its 5.75% Junior Subordinated Convertible Notes due 2054 that the notes will be convertible, at the holders’ option, during the first quarter 2026 conversion window from January 1 to March 31, 2026, at a rate equivalent to a conversion price of about $44.40 per share. Investors who elect to convert in that period will receive a mix of a new series of 5.75% non-convertible junior subordinated notes due 2054 equal to the principal amount converted, plus any excess conversion value in TXNM Energy common stock (and cash in lieu of fractional shares), meaning they will effectively exchange into less liquid 5.75% non-convertible notes that are expected to trade at a discount compared with more recently issued higher‑coupon junior subordinated debt. The company also reiterated that, under its previously announced May 18, 2025 merger agreement with an affiliate of Blackstone Infrastructure Partners, consummation of the merger would trigger a make‑whole fundamental change on the convertible notes, granting holders a separate right to convert into an all‑cash consideration based on the merger share price for a limited period after the effective date, although completion of the transaction remains contingent on regulatory and other customary approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXNM) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TXNM Energy stock, see the TXNM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
TXNM Energy Executes Major Financing and Pension Risk Actions
Neutral
Dec 19, 2025

On December 18–19, 2025, TXNM Energy and its subsidiaries undertook a series of financing and liability-management actions, including TNMP’s private placement of $70 million of 4.69% first mortgage bonds due 2031 secured by a first lien on substantially all of TNMP’s property, with proceeds earmarked for repaying short-term debt and funding general corporate purposes and capital spending. Over the same period, TXNM, PNM and TNMP amended and partially extended their revolving credit agreements, with TXNM and PNM removing SOFR adjustments and extending maturities to March 29, 2030, and TNMP both extending its revolver and upsizing its facility from $200 million to $300 million backed by newly issued Series 2025I first mortgage bonds, while ensuring that the planned merger with Blackstone’s Troy ParentCo will not trigger change-of-control defaults under these facilities or the new TNMP bond indentures. In a separate move to reduce pension risk, on December 18, 2025 TXNM directed the trustee of the PNM Resources Employees’ Retirement Plan to pay a single premium of about $91.9 million to Delaware Life Insurance Company in exchange for a group annuity contract that transfers a portion of PNM’s pension obligations related to its previously sold gas distribution business, a transaction expected to result in a non-cash charge of roughly $60 million to PNM’s net income while shifting future benefit payment responsibilities to the insurer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXNM) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TXNM Energy stock, see the TXNM Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
TXNM Energy Issues $350M Convertible Notes
Neutral
Dec 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, TXNM Energy, Inc. issued $350 million in 7.000% Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Junior Subordinated Convertible Notes due 2056. These notes are unsecured and rank junior to the company’s existing and future senior debt. The issuance allows TXNM Energy to manage its financial obligations with flexibility, as the company can defer interest payments for up to 20 consecutive semi-annual periods if needed. This financial maneuvering could impact the company’s liquidity and debt structure, potentially affecting stakeholders’ perceptions and the company’s market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TXNM) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TXNM Energy stock, see the TXNM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 04, 2026