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Tmx Group Ltd. (TSE:X)
:X

TMX Group (X) AI Stock Analysis

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TMX Group

(OTC:X)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$63.00
▲(12.80%Upside)
TMX Group exhibits a strong overall performance driven by robust financial health, positive technical indicators, and successful strategic initiatives as highlighted in the earnings call. However, the high P/E ratio suggests some concern about overvaluation. The strategic growth initiatives and strong revenue performance underscore a solid outlook, albeit with a need for caution regarding valuation metrics.
Positive Factors
Business Diversification
TMX's business diversification supports its ability to weather volatile markets.
Earnings
Record derivative volumes demonstrate the resiliency of TMX's model in turbulent markets.
Negative Factors
Trade Uncertainty
Trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on capital formation, with the IPO market remaining subdued.

TMX Group (X) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

TMX Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Global Solutions, Insights & Analytics; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading and Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing. The Global Solutions, Insights & Analytics segment delivers equities and index data, as well as integrated data sets for the proprietary and third party analytics to help clients in making trading and investment decisions; and provides solutions to European and global wholesale energy markets for price discovery, trade execution, post-trade transparency, and straight through processing. The Capital Formation segment operates Toronto Stock Exchange, a national stock exchange for the senior equities market; TSX Venture Exchange, a national stock exchange for the public venture equity market; and TSX Trust that provides corporate trust, registrar, transfer agency, and foreign exchange services. The Derivatives Trading & Clearing segment operates Montreal Exchange, a national derivatives exchange; Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, a clearinghouse for options and futures contracts; and various over-the-counter products and fixed income repurchase agreements. The Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing segment engages in the trading operations of Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, and TSX Alpha Exchange; and clearing and settlement of equities and fixed income transactions, and custody of securities; and provision of fixed income inter-dealer brokerage services. The company was formerly known as Maple Group Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMX Group Limited in August 2012. TMX Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTMX Group generates revenue through a diversified set of streams primarily derived from its exchanges and related services. Key revenue sources include listing fees, which are charged to companies for the initial and ongoing privilege of being listed on its exchanges. Trading and clearing fees constitute a significant portion of revenue, as TMX charges fees for executing and clearing trades on its platforms. Additionally, TMX earns revenue from data products and services by selling real-time and historical market data to financial institutions, traders, and other stakeholders. TMX Group also benefits from its energy trading and clearing business through NGX and Shorcan Energy Brokers. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions enhance its capabilities and market reach, contributing to its earnings.

TMX Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.23%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted TMX Group's strong financial performance and strategic advancements, including record revenue growth, robust performance in derivatives and equity markets, and successful platform launches. However, challenges such as increased expenses and market volatility were noted. The positive aspects of the call, particularly the successful execution of strategic initiatives, outweigh the challenges mentioned.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
TMX Group reported a record revenue performance for Q1 2025, with overall revenue increasing by 21% compared to Q1 2024. Organic revenue, excluding recent acquisitions, increased by 19%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share rose by 26%.
Strong Performance in Derivatives and Equity Markets
Derivative trading and clearing revenue increased by 42% year-over-year, driven by record MX volumes. Equity and fixed income trading revenue increased by 24% due to an 18% increase in combined volumes on TSX, TSX Venture, and Alpha.
Launch of AlphaX US
TMX's new U.S. equity trading venue, AlphaX US, launched in January, has shown impressive performance with average daily volume growing each month since launch.
Global Insights Division Growth
Global Insights revenue increased by 14% in Q1 2025, driven by double-digit growth from TMX VettaFi and TMX Trayport. TMX Trayport's revenue grew by 20%, and TMX VettaFi's revenue increased by 21% year-over-year.
Successful Launch of Post Trade Modernization Platform
TMX successfully launched the Post Trade Modernization platform, marking a significant upgrade in CDS' foundational technology, setting a new global benchmark for capital markets infrastructure.
Negative Updates
Increased Expenses
Total expenses increased by 16% year-over-year, driven by operating expenses related to recent acquisitions, strategic realignment, and higher costs related to the employee performance incentive plan.
Market Volatility Impact
Prevailing economic and interest rate uncertainty, as well as tariff announcements from the U.S., contributed to increased trading activity but also added volatility to the markets.
Company Guidance
During the TMX Group Limited's Q1 2025 results conference call, the company reported a 21% increase in revenue compared to Q1 2024, reaching a record high, and a 26% rise in adjusted diluted earnings per share. Organic revenue growth was 19%, excluding recent acquisitions like Newsfile, iNDEX Research, and Bond Indices. The company also noted a 42% increase in derivatives trading and clearing revenue, driven by record MX volumes and strong equity and interest rate derivatives segments. Expenses rose by 16% year-over-year, influenced by recent acquisitions and strategic realignment. Trading on traditional derivatives and equity markets increased due to U.S. tariff announcements and economic uncertainties. The new U.S. equity trading venue, AlphaX US, showed promising growth, contributing to a 24% rise in equity and fixed income trading revenue. Additionally, Global Insights revenue grew by 14%, with TMX Trayport and TMX VettaFi as key contributors. The successful launch of the Post Trade Modernization platform was highlighted, expected to bring efficiency and enable new service offerings, reflecting TMX's strong commitment to strategic growth and innovation.

TMX Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TMX Group demonstrates a strong financial position with solid profitability, manageable leverage, and efficient cash flow generation. While there are areas for improvement, particularly in net income growth, the overall financial health is robust, indicative of a well-managed company in the financial data and stock exchange industry.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
The income statement reveals strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 54.5% and a net profit margin of 23.1% for TTM. Revenue growth is robust at 32.9% compared to the previous annual period, indicating a positive trajectory. However, a slight decline in net income from the previous year may warrant attention. Overall, profitability and growth trends are favorable.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy equity ratio of 8.7% and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 45.8%. Return on equity stands at 9.6%, reflecting moderate efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. While leverage is present, it remains under control, supporting a stable financial position.
Cash Flow
79
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates positive free cash flow growth at 0.7% and strong operating cash flow relative to net income at 1.4x. The company's ability to convert income into cash is solid, supporting operational and financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.94B1.46B2.90B1.12B980.70M865.10M
Gross Profit1.06B958.80M2.81B751.00M662.60M580.90M
EBITDA1.88B2.46B2.35B1.57B578.30M496.20M
Net Income447.90M481.50M356.00M542.70M338.50M279.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.66B40.21B64.34B55.98B63.20B36.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments361.40M433.40M419.60M493.10M341.60M277.90M
Total Debt2.14B2.17B1.15B1.11B1.10B1.01B
Total Liabilities48.78B35.39B60.02B51.78B59.49B32.49B
Stockholders Equity4.67B4.58B4.11B3.99B3.71B3.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow553.60M549.70M459.70M392.20M390.20M343.80M
Operating Cash Flow638.30M623.40M524.90M444.10M441.40M410.90M
Investing Cash Flow-90.90M-1.17B-289.30M-41.40M-203.90M-34.80M
Financing Cash Flow-624.10M562.60M-309.20M-292.90M-194.80M-304.40M

TMX Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price55.85
Price Trends
50DMA
55.39
Positive
100DMA
53.01
Positive
200DMA
48.35
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.45
Positive
RSI
49.00
Neutral
STOCH
54.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:X, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.18, above the 50-day MA of 55.39, and above the 200-day MA of 48.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:X.

TMX Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSX
80
Outperform
C$16.05B35.7910.06%1.39%-2.24%10.14%
67
Neutral
$16.86B11.649.71%3.83%11.61%-9.60%
BNBN
$102.26B209.601.36%0.58%
TSIAG
81
Outperform
C$13.88B15.7612.54%2.41%-7.31%28.65%
TSPOW
74
Outperform
C$33.98B12.6211.92%4.61%7.63%8.84%
BNBNT
$14.95B4.97%0.58%
TSBAM
69
Neutral
C$121.54B38.6718.95%3.20%27.17%16.13%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:X
TMX Group
55.85
17.80
46.79%
BN
Brookfield Corporation
62.63
19.85
46.40%
TSE:IAG
iA Financial Corporation Inc
145.81
62.27
74.54%
TSE:POW
Power Corp of Canada
52.28
15.23
41.11%
BNT
Brookfield Wealth Solutions
62.60
19.76
46.13%
TSE:BAM
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. Class A
75.43
23.32
44.75%

TMX Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
TMX Group Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Strategic Advancements
Positive
May 5, 2025

TMX Group Limited reported a strong first quarter in 2025, with revenue increasing by 21% to $419.1 million compared to the previous year. Despite a decrease in diluted earnings per share due to a prior gain from an acquisition, the adjusted diluted earnings per share rose by 26%. The company highlighted significant progress in enterprise initiatives, including upgrades to clearing technology and a successful Post Trade Modernization project. These developments, along with the acquisition of Credit Suisse’s Bond Indices, are expected to enhance TMX’s market position and offer new growth opportunities, while a stable credit rating trend reflects improved financial stability.

Dividends
TMX Group Declares $0.20 Dividend Per Share
Positive
May 5, 2025

TMX Group Limited has announced a dividend of $0.20 per common share, payable on June 6, 2025, to shareholders on record as of May 23, 2025. This declaration reflects TMX Group’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively influence investor confidence and market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 17, 2025