TMX Group Ltd (TSE:X)
TSX:X
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TMX Group
(TSX:X)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$52.00
▼(-2.99% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong profitability and improving returns, but tempered by revenue volatility and weaker operating cash flow vs. earnings) and a very attractive valuation (low P/E). These positives are partially offset by weak technicals, with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD despite oversold readings.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and ROE improvement
TMX’s trailing‑12‑month income statement shows durable margin strength and an improved return on equity, indicating efficient capital use and the ability to convert revenue into profits. Strong operating profitability supports long‑term cash generation and resilience across market cycles.
Negative Factors
Revenue volatility
TMX’s top‑line has shown material year‑to‑year swings, reducing predictability of transaction and listing income. For a primarily fee‑based business, volatile revenues complicate budgeting, capital allocation and forecasting of recurring revenue streams over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability and ROE improvement
TMX’s trailing‑12‑month income statement shows durable margin strength and an improved return on equity, indicating efficient capital use and the ability to convert revenue into profits. Strong operating profitability supports long‑term cash generation and resilience across market cycles.
Read all positive factors
TMX Group (X) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$14.27B
Dividend Yield1.61%
Average Volume (3M)708.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.9
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth1.13%
EPS Growth19.17%
CountryCA
Employees2,039
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding275,708,830
10 Day Avg. Volume648,819
30 Day Avg. Volume708,392
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.43
Price to Book (P/B)3.05
Price to Sales (P/S)4.97
P/FCF Ratio25.63
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$65.29Price Target Upside21.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.91B
TMX Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TMX Group Limited is a major global player operating a network of exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily dedicated to capital markets, both within Canada and internationally. The company organizes its business into four distinct segments...
How the Company Makes Money
TMX Group primarily earns revenue by charging fees for operating financial marketplaces and providing post-trade and information services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Listings and issuer services: fees paid by companies and other is...
TMX Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: broad-based revenue growth across segments, record quarterly and full-year performance, significant AUM and product expansion at VettaFi, Trayport recurring revenue growth, strong capital formation and a healthy balance sheet with a dividend increase. Notable negatives include a large noncash FX-driven hit to reported EPS, elevated operating expenses driven by regulatory passthroughs, acquisition and litigation costs, some weakness in fixed income trading revenue and modest market-share erosion. Management emphasized that adjusted performance and underlying organic trends remain robust and that many expense items were one-time or acquisition-related.Positive Updates
Record Annual and Quarterly Revenue Growth
Finished 2025 with 'best year ever' performance: overall revenue +18% year-over-year for the year; organic revenue +15% (ex-acquisitions). Record Q4 revenue of $457.8 million, up 16% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Reported EPS Decline (FX Impact)
Reported diluted EPS for Q4 was down 29% year-over-year to $0.41, driven primarily by a $0.19 per-share net noncash foreign-exchange accounting loss on U.S. dollar-denominated intercompany loans compared with noncash gains in the prior-year quarter.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual and Quarterly Revenue Growth
Finished 2025 with 'best year ever' performance: overall revenue +18% year-over-year for the year; organic revenue +15% (ex-acquisitions). Record Q4 revenue of $457.8 million, up 16% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call framed clear policy and growth guidance: management reiterated Trayport’s long‑term target of high‑single to low‑double‑digit growth and signaled continued disciplined M&A to scale Global Insights and VettaFi, while maintaining financial targets — a debt/adjusted‑EBITDA target range of 1.5–2.5x (2.2x at Dec‑31/1.9x net of excess cash), ~$513M in cash and marketable securities (≈$273M excess above the ~$240M regulatory cash target), and a dividend payout target of 40–50% (Board approved a 9% increase to $0.24 quarterly, LTM payout 42%, payable Mar 6). They emphasized delivering positive operating leverage (Q4 reported operating leverage was –2% but +7% excluding CAT, recent acquisitions and litigation), sustaining organic revenue momentum (FY organic revenue +15%; Q4 organic growth ~13%), and building on recent results (record Q4 revenue $457.8M, +16% YoY; FY revenue +18% YoY; Q4 adjusted diluted EPS +22% YoY; FY adjusted diluted EPS +25% YoY), while growing platform metrics such as VettaFi AUM +49% to >US$77B and Trayport ARR ~CAD276M/GBP150M (up ~17%/14% YoY).TMX Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.24B | 2.92B | 1.46B | 2.90B | 1.11B | 980.70M |
| Gross Profit | 1.32B | 1.23B | 958.80M | 2.81B | 749.30M | 662.60M |
| EBITDA | 4.93B | 2.12B | 2.46B | 2.38B | 1.57B | 658.00M |
| Net Income | 534.40M | 415.70M | 481.50M | 356.00M | 542.70M | 338.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 560.32B | 50.72B | 40.21B | 64.34B | 55.98B | 63.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.02B | 757.60M | 433.40M | 419.60M | 493.10M | 341.60M |
| Total Debt | 21.52B | 2.17B | 2.17B | 1.15B | 1.11B | 1.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 509.47B | 45.75B | 35.39B | 60.02B | 51.78B | 59.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 48.83B | 4.76B | 4.58B | 4.11B | 3.99B | 3.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.17B | 566.60M | 549.70M | 459.70M | 392.20M | 390.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.43B | 687.80M | 623.40M | 524.90M | 444.10M | 441.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 735.10M | -259.20M | -1.17B | -289.30M | -41.40M | -203.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.88B | -387.70M | 562.60M | -309.20M | -292.90M | -194.80M |
TMX Group Technical Analysis
Positive
53.60
Price Trends
52.54
Negative
50.06
Positive
50.63
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.54
Negative
52.22
Neutral
86.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:X, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.16, above the 50-day MA of 52.54, and above the 200-day MA of 50.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:X.
TMX Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$18.88B | 16.64 | 13.19% | 3.59% | 17.16% | 22.85% | |
76 Outperform | C$16.30B | 16.14 | 12.80% | 2.11% | -1.40% | 14.51% | |
74 Outperform | C$21.25B | 6.95 | 16.02% | ― | -25.81% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | C$14.27B | 26.91 | 16.24% | 1.61% | 1.13% | 19.17% | |
63 Neutral | C$1.51B | -11.27 | -25.39% | 2.96% | 26.51% | -384.81% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:X
TMX Group
51.74
-3.82
-6.88%
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14.91
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63.18%
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TSE:GLXY
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―
―
―
TSE:BNT
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22.45%
TMX Group Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
TMX Group Corrects Clerical Errors in English Management Circular Ahead of May Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
TMX Group Limited has issued an amended English version of its management information circular for the May 5, 2026 annual and special meeting of shareholders, correcting clerical cross-references in the appendix describing its Omnibus Equity Incen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.