TMX Group (X) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$15.17B
• Dividend Yield: 1.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 471.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.37
• Revenue Growth: -4.94%
• EPS Growth: 2.93%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,039
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 278,100,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 539,962
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 471,021
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$61.07
• Price Target Upside: 11.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$60.00 ▲(9.99% Upside)

TMX Group's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position and strong earnings call performance, with significant revenue growth across key segments. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate potential overvaluation. The company's ability to address declining profitability and leverage strategic initiatives will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Business Diversification

TMX remains the top pick with organic growth moving higher combined with business diversification that can help weather volatile markets.

Competitive Advantage

VettaFi's ability to create indices quickly and offer customization for ETF issuers provides a significant advantage over competitors.

Earnings Growth

TMX is well-positioned to deliver its best earnings growth of the past four years.

Organic Revenue Growth

TMX appears on track to achieve +13% organic topline growth, underpinned by continued momentum in Derivatives and improving Cash Equities.

Negative Factors

Capital Formation

Capital formation activity remains subdued, with the IPO market raising well below the long-term average.

Trade Uncertainty

Trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on capital formation, with the IPO market remaining subdued.

TMX Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TMX Group Limited (X) is a Canadian financial services company that operates cash and derivative markets and provides clearing facilities, technology solutions, and data services for the global financial community. The company primarily serves the financial and energy sectors through its various subsidiaries, including the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), TSX Venture Exchange, Montreal Exchange, and the Canadian Depository for Securities. TMX Group offers a comprehensive suite of services encompassing trading, clearing, settlement, and market data solutions, catering to a diverse clientele of financial institutions, corporations, and individual investors.

How the Company Makes Money

TMX Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily driven by trading, clearing, and listing fees associated with its various exchanges. The company earns listing fees from companies that seek to list their shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange. Trading fees are collected from market participants engaging in buying and selling securities on its platforms. TMX Group also earns clearing and settlement fees through its Canadian Depository for Securities and the Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation. In addition, the company leverages its extensive market data and analytics services to generate subscription-based revenue from clients seeking comprehensive financial market information. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and continuous innovation in market technology further bolster TMX Group's revenue model.

TMX Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TMX Group demonstrates a stable financial position with strong cash flow management and moderate leverage. However, declining revenue and profitability margins pose challenges. The company needs to address revenue growth and improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 64.95% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 26.58% TTM from 32.98% in the previous year, reflecting reduced profitability. Revenue growth is negative at -18.12% TTM, suggesting a decline in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are unusually high due to potential accounting adjustments, which may not reflect operational efficiency accurately.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity has decreased to 2.92% TTM from 10.52% in the previous year, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 12.10% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.02 TTM, which may suggest potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 87.58% TTM, highlighting effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.59B	1.46B	2.90B	1.12B	980.70M	865.10M
Gross Profit	1.03B	958.80M	2.81B	751.00M	662.60M	580.90M
EBITDA	2.22B	2.46B	2.35B	1.57B	578.30M	496.20M
Net Income	422.00M	481.50M	356.00M	542.70M	338.50M	279.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.81B	40.21B	64.34B	55.98B	63.20B	36.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	465.60M	433.40M	419.60M	493.10M	341.60M	277.90M
Total Debt	2.09B	2.17B	1.15B	1.11B	1.10B	1.01B
Total Liabilities	42.96B	35.39B	60.02B	51.78B	59.49B	32.49B
Stockholders Equity	4.64B	4.58B	4.11B	3.99B	3.71B	3.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	620.60M	549.70M	459.70M	392.20M	390.20M	343.80M
Operating Cash Flow	708.60M	623.40M	524.90M	444.10M	441.40M	410.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-188.40M	-1.17B	-289.30M	-41.40M	-203.90M	-34.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-590.10M	562.60M	-309.20M	-292.90M	-194.80M	-304.40M

TMX Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 54.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:X, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 54.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.88, below the 50-day MA of 55.95, and above the 200-day MA of 51.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:X.

TMX Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IAG	75 Outperform	C$13.83B	13.82	13.43%	2.40%	-4.55%	42.41%
POW	73 Outperform	C$36.74B	13.43	12.07%	5.15%	11.56%	1.15%
BAM	70 Neutral	C$131.47B	39.40	26.64%	2.90%	554.20%	37.48%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.05B	11.73	10.24%	3.73%	9.66%	1.70%
X	68 Neutral	C$15.17B	36.10	9.20%	1.48%	-4.94%	2.93%
BN	―	$109.27B	147.77	1.79%	0.51%	―	―
BNT	―	$18.82B	―	6.24%	0.51%	―	―

TMX Group Corporate Events

TMX Group Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Strategic Expansions

TMX Group Limited reported a 15% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, reaching $421.7 million, driven by strong performance across derivatives and equities markets, and growth in TMX Trayport and TMX VettaFi. Despite a decrease in diluted earnings per share due to foreign exchange losses, the company announced a 10% dividend increase, reflecting its commitment to shareholder value. The launch of the Post Trade Modernization project and the acquisition of ETF Stream are expected to enhance TMX’s operational capabilities and market presence in Europe.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:X) stock is a Hold with a C$41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMX Group stock, see the TSE:X Stock Forecast page.

TMX Group Increases Dividend by 10%, Reflecting Strong Growth Strategy

TMX Group Limited announced a 10% increase in its dividend to $0.22 per common share, reflecting the company’s strong business model and global growth strategy. This marks the fifth dividend increase in three years, underscoring TMX Group’s commitment to delivering value to shareholders and maintaining disciplined capital allocation. The dividend is payable on August 29, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 15, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:X) stock is a Hold with a C$41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TMX Group stock, see the TSE:X Stock Forecast page.

TMX Group Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Strategic Advancements

TMX Group Limited reported a strong first quarter in 2025, with revenue increasing by 21% to $419.1 million compared to the previous year. Despite a decrease in diluted earnings per share due to a prior gain from an acquisition, the adjusted diluted earnings per share rose by 26%. The company highlighted significant progress in enterprise initiatives, including upgrades to clearing technology and a successful Post Trade Modernization project. These developments, along with the acquisition of Credit Suisse’s Bond Indices, are expected to enhance TMX’s market position and offer new growth opportunities, while a stable credit rating trend reflects improved financial stability.

TMX Group Declares $0.20 Dividend Per Share

TMX Group Limited has announced a dividend of $0.20 per common share, payable on June 6, 2025, to shareholders on record as of May 23, 2025. This declaration reflects TMX Group’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively influence investor confidence and market positioning.