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Vista Gold Corp. (TSE:VGZ)
TSX:VGZ
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Vista Gold (VGZ) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:VGZ

Vista Gold

(TSX:VGZ)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
Vista Gold's overall score reflects a strong balance sheet and positive technical momentum, but is constrained by a lack of revenue and ongoing losses. Valuation metrics suggest reasonable pricing, though the absence of dividends is a downside. Despite strategic advancements, profitability challenges persist.

Vista Gold (VGZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Vista Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVista Gold Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold exploration and development projects primarily in Australia. The company's flagship asset is the Mt Todd gold project located in Northern Territory. Vista Gold Corp. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Littleton, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Gold makes money through the exploration and potential development of gold mining projects. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the advancement of its Mt Todd gold project, which involves increasing the project's value through exploration, technical studies, and permitting activities. Additionally, Vista Gold may generate income through strategic partnerships, joint ventures, or by selling or leasing its interests in mining projects. The company may also benefit from fluctuations in gold prices, as higher gold prices can increase the potential profitability of its projects.

Vista Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a positive outlook with significant achievements in project development and financial management, despite a quarterly loss and decline in cash reserves. The strong increase in share price and completion of a new feasibility study contribute to an optimistic sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Completion of New Feasibility Study
Vista Gold completed a new feasibility study for the Mt Todd gold project, introducing a 15,000 tonne per day operation with significantly decreased initial capital costs from over $1 billion to $425 million.
Strong Financial Position
The company maintained a strong cash position with $13.7 million on hand and ended the quarter with no debt.
Safety Achievement
Vista Gold achieved four years without a lost-time accident at the Mt Todd site, demonstrating a strong commitment to safety.
Significant Share Price Increase
Vista shares increased approximately 210% year-to-date, driven by a rise in gold prices and strong market support for the new feasibility study.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Loss
For the 9-month period ended September 30, 2025, Vista reported a net loss of $5,787,000, compared to net income of $12,922,000 for the same period in 2024.
Decline in Cash Position
The cash position declined from $16.9 million at the end of 2024 to $13.7 million by September 2025, although the decline was mitigated by tax recoveries and ATM program usage.
Company Guidance
During the Vista Gold Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Corporate Update Conference Call, several key metrics and strategic insights were provided. The new feasibility study for the Mt Todd gold project, unveiled on July 29, 2025, reimagines the project as a 15,000 tonne per day operation, significantly reducing initial capital costs from over $1 billion to $425 million. This study projects a net present value (NPV) of USD 1.1 billion at a gold price of $2,500 per ounce, with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 27.8% and a payback period of 2.7 years. At a gold price of $3,300 per ounce, the NPV increases to $2.2 billion, with an IRR of 44.7% and a payback period of 1.7 years. The company's financial position remains robust with $13.7 million in cash and no debt as of September 30, 2025. They anticipate net recurring costs of approximately $7.4 million, plus an additional $2 million for ongoing work at Mt Todd over the next year. Additionally, Vista Gold has achieved four years without a lost-time accident, reflecting its commitment to safety. The call highlighted significant leverage to the price of gold and the potential for the project to generate approximately USD 300 million of free cash flow annually at a $3,500 per ounce gold price. Vista Gold's share performance has been strong, with a 210% year-to-date increase, supported by favorable market conditions and investor interest.

Vista Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vista Gold's financial health is marked by a strong balance sheet with zero debt and significant equity, but it struggles with no revenue and consistent losses impacting its income statement. Cash flow management has been prudent, yet negative free cash flow persists.
Income Statement
15
Very Negative
Vista Gold's income statement reveals persistent challenges with no recorded revenue and consistent operating losses. The company showed a notable increase in EBIT and net income for the TTM, but this is primarily due to cost management rather than revenue generation. The absence of revenue and a history of losses significantly constrain profitability metrics, leading to a low score.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with zero debt, indicating a conservative capital structure. The equity ratio is strong, and the company has a history of maintaining low liabilities relative to assets. Despite this stability, the lack of revenue generation remains a concern, limiting further improvements in the score.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows significant reliance on financing and investing activities to maintain operations, with negative free cash flow across periods. Operating cash flow remains negative, yet the management of cash and investments has bolstered liquidity. The negative free cash flow growth and reliance on external funding sources limit the score.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-82.00K0.000.00-45.00K-49.00K-48.00K
EBITDA-7.88M-7.12M-6.72M-8.29M-11.89M-8.32M
Net Income-7.46M11.25M-6.58M-4.41M-18.59M8.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.85M18.97M8.93M10.99M16.34M17.23M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.72M16.95M6.07M8.11M13.14M8.46M
Total Debt0.000.000.000.000.0013.00K
Total Liabilities1.20M1.07M3.98M957.00K2.05M1.38M
Stockholders Equity14.66M17.91M4.95M10.03M14.29M15.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-7.14M-6.08M-5.91M-7.42M-10.76M-7.02M
Operating Cash Flow-6.57M-5.74M-5.86M-7.41M-10.62M-6.96M
Investing Cash Flow-1.08M15.59M2.95M2.88M2.63M11.63M
Financing Cash Flow2.41M1.02M871.00K-113.00K12.98M1.68M

Vista Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.73
Price Trends
50DMA
2.63
Positive
100DMA
2.18
Positive
200DMA
1.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.05
Negative
RSI
60.49
Neutral
STOCH
85.88
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VGZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.46, above the 50-day MA of 2.63, and above the 200-day MA of 1.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VGZ.

Vista Gold Risk Analysis

Vista Gold disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vista Gold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vista Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$317.19M5.7931.06%96.85%493.28%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
C$345.38M-33.45-166.59%
55
Neutral
C$394.27M-96.84-1.82%-251.92%
51
Neutral
C$396.29M-29.81-11.85%50.54%
51
Neutral
C$540.50M-7.47%-26.52%
36
Underperform
C$265.11M-28.47-22.27%50.13%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:VGZ
Vista Gold
2.82
1.99
239.76%
TSE:ITH
International Tower Hill Mines
2.49
1.83
277.27%
TSE:TAU
Thesis Gold Inc
2.27
1.64
260.32%
TSE:FF
First Mining Gold
0.48
0.35
269.23%
TSE:MMY
Monument Mining
1.07
0.82
328.00%
TSE:MFG
Mayfair Gold
2.35
0.50
27.03%

Vista Gold Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vista Gold Reports Q1 2025 Financials and Advances Mt Todd Project
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Vista Gold Corp. announced its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a cash position of $15.0 million and a net loss of $2.7 million. The company is advancing its Mt Todd gold project with a feasibility study aimed at increasing reserve grade and optimizing mine scheduling, while reducing initial capital expenditure. This strategic focus is expected to unlock shareholder value and align with the current gold cycle, potentially accelerating value creation.

Spark’s Take on TSE:VGZ Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:VGZ is a Neutral.

Vista Gold’s overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with a solid balance sheet but lacking revenue generation. The positive technical indicators and reasonable valuation suggest potential for growth, supported by strategic initiatives and project advancements. The company’s ability to improve its revenue and operational efficiency will be crucial for future success.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:VGZ stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Vista Gold to Showcase Mt Todd Project at Mining Forum Europe 2025
Positive
Mar 28, 2025

Vista Gold Corp. announced that its President and CEO, Frederick H. Earnest, will present at the Mining Forum Europe 2025 conference in Zurich, Switzerland, highlighting the company’s strategic initiatives and development plans. The presentation, along with meetings with institutional investors, underscores Vista Gold’s commitment to advancing the Mt Todd project and enhancing its industry positioning, potentially impacting stakeholders by showcasing its growth opportunities and operational readiness.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vista Gold Corp. Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results and Advances Mt Todd Project
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

Vista Gold Corp. announced its 2024 financial results, highlighting a strong financial position with $16.9 million in cash and a net income of $11.2 million, a significant turnaround from the previous year’s loss. The company is advancing its Mt Todd project with a new feasibility study aimed at reducing initial capital expenditure and increasing gold production, positioning it for near-term development and long-term success.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vista Gold to Showcase Mt Todd Project at PDAC 2025
Positive
Feb 26, 2025

Vista Gold Corp. announced its participation in the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada 2025 Convention, aiming to showcase the Mt Todd project as a premier ready-to-build gold project. The company will engage with attendees to discuss the project’s potential and strategic advancements, highlighting its position within the gold sector and the value it offers to stakeholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
Vista Gold Targets Value Realization with 2025 Strategic Initiatives
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

Vista Gold Corp. has announced its 2025 strategic outlook, emphasizing the completion of the Mt Todd feasibility study as a cornerstone for delivering value to shareholders. The study is expected to position Mt Todd as a significant development opportunity in the gold sector by increasing the reserve grade and reducing initial capital expenditures. The company aims to attract a diverse range of investors and is committed to maintaining safety and operational efficiency, highlighting over three years without a lost time incident at Mt Todd.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 03, 2025