Vista Gold (VGZ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$413.00M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 97.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.70
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -166.59%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 144,947,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 111,012
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 97,227
• PEG Ratio: 0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 16.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -33.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$6.13
• Price Target Upside: 106.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: C$2.50 ▼(-15.82% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, recurring operating losses, and ongoing negative free cash flow) and bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by constructive earnings-call takeaways—strong Mt Todd feasibility economics and recent financing with no debt—but execution, dilution, and timeline risks keep the overall profile below average.

Positive Factors

Robust Mt Todd feasibility economics

The July 2025 feasibility shows high IRRs and short paybacks across realistic gold prices, supporting bankability and partner interest. Durable project economics increase the likelihood of successful project finance and long-term value creation if execution follows the study assumptions.

Strong projected free cash flow at design price

A multi-hundred-million annual free cash flow projection (at conservative study price) indicates substantial long-term cash generation potential once operational. This underpins debt service capacity, reinvestment, and attractive returns for partners or shareholders if realized over the mine life.

Low leverage / clean balance sheet

Near-zero debt gives Vista flexibility to stage development, negotiate project finance, and avoid early distress. Low leverage reduces short-term solvency risk during multi-year pre-production, preserving optionality for structured debt or strategic partner equity when needed.

Negative Factors

No operating revenue and persistent losses

Vista has no operating revenue and recurring negative EBIT, meaning the business cannot self-fund development. Persistent operating losses and negative free cash flow force reliance on periodic external capital, increasing dilution risk and making long-term progress contingent on financing availability.

Material future financing and dilution risk

Planned project funding that requires a substantial equity component implies significant future capital raises. That creates dilution risk for current shareholders and execution uncertainty because successful delivery depends on raising large sums under acceptable terms amid market and commodity cycles.

Multi-year timeline and execution/cost risk

A multi-year path to first production exposes the project to permitting delays, input-cost escalation, and gold-price volatility. Extended timelines amplify capital-scheduling and execution risks that can materially change project NPV, financing costs and partner appetite before cash generation begins.

Vista Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vista Gold Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold exploration and development projects primarily in Australia. The company's flagship asset is the Mt Todd gold project located in Northern Territory. Vista Gold Corp. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Littleton, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

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Vista Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Very weak operating fundamentals in the provided statements: no revenue, persistent negative EBIT, and consistently negative operating/free cash flow (ongoing cash burn). The main offset is a low-leverage balance sheet with near-zero debt, which supports flexibility but does not resolve the underlying lack of operating profitability and cash generation.

Income Statement

The company reports no revenue across the annual periods provided, while operating losses are persistent (EBIT negative every year). Net income is highly volatile—profitable in 2020 and 2024 but loss-making in 2021–2023 and 2025—suggesting results are driven by non-operating items rather than a stable operating business. Overall profitability quality is weak given ongoing operating losses and lack of revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very low with total debt at or near zero in all years, which reduces financial risk. However, equity has fluctuated materially (notably lower in 2023 versus surrounding years), and returns on equity swing sharply from strongly positive to deeply negative, reflecting earnings volatility. Asset base is relatively steady recently, but the balance sheet is ultimately dependent on funding capacity given ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently negative each year, indicating ongoing cash burn. Free cash flow generally tracks net income (free cash flow to net income ~1x), but this is largely because net income is also often negative or volatile, not because cash generation is strong. Free cash flow growth is uneven (large swing in 2025), and the business does not show a sustained path to self-funding based on the data provided.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-88.00K	0.00	0.00	-45.00K	-49.00K
EBITDA	-9.20M	-7.12M	-6.72M	-8.29M	-11.89M
Net Income	-7.50M	11.25M	-6.58M	-4.41M	-18.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.27M	18.97M	8.93M	10.99M	16.34M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.62M	16.95M	6.07M	8.11M	13.14M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	1.17M	1.07M	3.98M	957.00K	2.05M
Stockholders Equity	15.11M	17.91M	4.95M	10.03M	14.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-7.36M	-6.08M	-5.91M	-7.42M	-10.76M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.61M	-5.74M	-5.86M	-7.41M	-10.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-742.00K	15.59M	2.95M	2.88M	2.63M
Financing Cash Flow	4.03M	1.02M	871.00K	-113.00K	12.98M

Vista Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VGZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.9699999999999998 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.45, below the 50-day MA of 3.40, and above the 200-day MA of 2.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.10 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:VGZ.

Vista Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MMY	78 Outperform	C$342.64M	3.75	31.06%	―	78.96%	376.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
RDS	54 Neutral	C$311.89M	192.23	-2.68%	―	―	-74.07%
VGZ	48 Neutral	C$413.00M	-32.45	-50.63%	―	―	-166.59%
AUXX	45 Neutral	C$875.26M	-33.01	-7.77%	―	―	-111.93%

Vista Gold Corporate Events

Vista Gold Posts 2025 Loss but Fortifies Balance Sheet as Mt Todd Nears Design Phase

Vista Gold reported audited 2025 results showing a net loss of $7.5 million, reversing a prior-year profit largely due to the absence of one-time gains booked in 2024, while year-end cash stood at $13.6 million with no debt. The company strengthened its balance sheet in March 2026 via a $44.85 million equity raise to fund permitting, technical studies, and organizational build-out in Australia, underpinning its strategy to move Mt Todd toward detailed engineering in 2027 and eventual first gold production.

Operationally, 2025 was marked by completion of a new Mt Todd feasibility study that outlines a smaller, higher-grade initial operation with lower initial capital and reduced risk, along with continued progress in environmental performance and safety, including more than four years without a workplace incident. Vista is now advancing metallurgical and geotechnical work, permit modifications, and the establishment of a Perth-based executive team and expanded Northern Territory presence, steps that reinforce its positioning as Mt Todd moves closer to the execution and construction phase.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VGZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Gold stock, see the TSE:VGZ Stock Forecast page.

Vista Gold Raises US$44.85 Million to Advance Mt. Todd Gold Project

Vista Gold Corp., a gold development company focused on the Mt. Todd project in Australia’s Northern Territory, is advancing what it describes as a leading development-stage gold deposit with strong economics and long-life potential. The company positions Mt. Todd as a future globally significant gold operation, supported by advanced infrastructure, multiple development scenarios, and broad community support.

Vista raised US$44.85 million through an underwritten public offering of 17,940,000 common shares priced at US$2.50, including full exercise of the underwriters’ option. The company plans to use the net proceeds to fund exploration and development at Mt. Todd and for general corporate purposes, bolstering its financial capacity to advance the project and potentially strengthening its position in the gold development sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VGZ) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Gold stock, see the TSE:VGZ Stock Forecast page.

Vista Gold bolsters Australian leadership as Mt Todd project advances

Vista Gold Corp. has strengthened its Australian leadership team for the Mt Todd gold project with the appointment of three senior executives: Jeff Dang as Executive General Manager – Projects and Technical Services, Sharon Goddard as Executive General Manager – External Relations and Social Performance, and Francis Atta Kuranchie as Approvals Manager. The new hires, each bringing more than 18–20 years of mining-sector experience across operations, project development, ESG, stakeholder engagement and regulatory approvals, mark the transition of project leadership from Denver to Australia and are intended to position Mt Todd for the start of detailed engineering and design in early 2027, reinforcing Vista’s execution capability, social performance focus and regulatory interface in the Northern Territory.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VGZ) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Gold stock, see the TSE:VGZ Stock Forecast page.

Vista Gold to Spotlight Mt Todd Project at 2026 Metals Investor Forum

Vista Gold Corp. will showcase its Mt Todd gold project at the Metals Investor Forum 2026 in Vancouver, where President and CEO Frederick H. Earnest is scheduled to appear alongside industry analyst John Kaiser and deliver a dedicated investor presentation followed by a Q&A session at the company’s booth; the presentation will be live-streamed and later posted on Vista’s website to broaden investor access. The company is using the conference platform to highlight Mt Todd’s status as a large, development-stage gold asset in Australia with robust economics and growth potential, and to update investors on its roadmap toward commencing detailed engineering by early 2027, a step that would trigger a roughly 27‑month build-out phase and, if executed as planned, strengthen Vista’s position as a future producer in the global gold sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VGZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Gold stock, see the TSE:VGZ Stock Forecast page.

Vista Gold Targets 2027 Start for Mt Todd Detailed Engineering

Vista Gold Corp. has set a target to commence detailed engineering and design for its Mt Todd gold project by early 2027, a step that would launch a 27‑month schedule for design, construction and commissioning of the mine. Building on a 2025 feasibility study that reshaped Mt Todd as a smaller, higher‑grade, lower‑capex development using contractors to reduce risk, the company’s 2026 priorities include securing permit modifications aligned with the study, assembling an Australia‑based project development team, and completing technical recommendations such as metallurgical testing and potential geotechnical drilling to optimize pit design and ore reserves. Management frames this work program as positioning Mt Todd for near‑term development in a strong gold price environment, while keeping options open for joint ventures or other transactions that could enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VGZ) stock is a Hold with a C$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Gold stock, see the TSE:VGZ Stock Forecast page.