Vista Gold Corp. (TSE:VGZ)
TSX:VGZ
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Vista Gold
(TSX:VGZ)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.50
▼(-15.82% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, recurring operating losses, and ongoing negative free cash flow) and bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by constructive earnings-call takeaways—strong Mt Todd feasibility economics and recent financing with no debt—but execution, dilution, and timeline risks keep the overall profile below average.
Positive Factors
Robust feasibility economics
The Mt Todd feasibility delivers durable cash-generation potential and attractive margins across price scenarios. High IRR/short payback and a large initial production profile support long-term project resilience and bankability, improving prospects for project finance and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
No operating revenue; persistent losses
Vista lacks operating cash generation and has recurrent operating losses, meaning the business cannot self-fund development. Reliance on external capital is structural until production, increasing financing dependency and raising the risk of dilution or interrupted project timelines.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust feasibility economics
The Mt Todd feasibility delivers durable cash-generation potential and attractive margins across price scenarios. High IRR/short payback and a large initial production profile support long-term project resilience and bankability, improving prospects for project finance and shareholder value.
Read all positive factors
Vista Gold (VGZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$393.54M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)97.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.69
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-166.59%
CountryCA
Employees13
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding144,947,530
10 Day Avg. Volume111,012
30 Day Avg. Volume97,227
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)16.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-33.08
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$6.23Price Target Upside109.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Vista Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vista Gold Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold exploration and development projects primarily in Australia. The company's flagship asset is the Mt Todd gold project lo...
How the Company Makes Money
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Vista Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized major positive milestones: completion of a robust feasibility study with strong project economics (high IRRs and short paybacks at multiple gold price scenarios), a significant share-price rally (≈252% in 2025), successful near-term financing ($44.85M offering, net $41.9M), a clean (debt-free) balance sheet and solid safety/ESG performance. Offsetting these positives are a 2025 net loss (driven largely by one-time 2024 items), higher site expenditures, the need for sizeable additional project financing (implying equity issuance/dilution), multi-year lead time to first production and exposure to input-cost and gold-price risk. On balance, the highlights—particularly the compelling feasibility results, financing progress and strong market reception—outweigh the lowlights, though execution and financing risks remain material.Positive Updates
Completion of Mt Todd 2025 Feasibility Study
Feasibility study completed July 2025 for a 15,000 tpd operation. Study economics: at $2,500/oz gold NPV5 $1.1B, IRR 27.8%, payback 2.7 years; at $3,300/oz NPV5 $2.2B, IRR 44.7%, payback 1.7 years; at $5,000/oz NPV5 $4.5B, IRR 74.5%, payback 1.3 years.
Negative Updates
Net Loss for 2025 vs Prior Year Income
Net loss of $7.5M in 2025 compared to net income of $11.2M in 2024, a year-over-year swing of ~$18.7M (approximately a 167% decline in net income). Management attributes the difference largely to one-time 2024 items (a $16.9M royalty-related gain, $1.9M capitalized development costs in 2024 and $0.8M proceeds from equipment sale).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Completion of Mt Todd 2025 Feasibility Study
Feasibility study completed July 2025 for a 15,000 tpd operation. Study economics: at $2,500/oz gold NPV5 $1.1B, IRR 27.8%, payback 2.7 years; at $3,300/oz NPV5 $2.2B, IRR 44.7%, payback 1.7 years; at $5,000/oz NPV5 $4.5B, IRR 74.5%, payback 1.3 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vista’s guidance centered on advancing the Mt Todd 15,000 tpd project toward detailed engineering while preserving financial flexibility: the company finished 2025 with $13.6M cash, closed a $44.85M public offering (net ~$41.9M), has no debt and a market cap ~ $300M; 2025 results included a $7.5M net loss (vs $11.2M net income in 2024), Mt Todd expenditures of $5.6M (vs $3.5M in 2024) and corporate G&A of $3.6M (vs $3.7M); the July 2025 feasibility study shows at $2,500/oz gold an NPV5 of $1.1B, IRR 27.8% and 2.7‑yr payback (at $3,300/oz NPV5 $2.2B, IRR 44.7%, 1.7‑yr payback; at $5,000/oz NPV5 $4.5B, IRR 74.5%, 1.3‑yr payback), an AISC of ~ $1,500/oz and estimated free cash flow of $300M/year at $3,300/oz, with a production profile of ~175,000 oz/yr for the first ~3 years and ~150,000 oz/yr thereafter (~15 years); management expects to be in a position to decide to start detailed engineering by mid‑2027 (followed by ~27 months to first gold), is targeting ~65–70% project leverage with the balance equity, and is advancing geotechnical drilling, permit modifications and metallurgical/water‑treatment test work while reporting 4+ years without a workplace incident and zero reportable environmental events.Vista Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -88.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 | -45.00K | -49.00K |
| EBITDA | -9.20M | -7.12M | -6.72M | -8.29M | -11.89M |
| Net Income | -7.50M | 11.25M | -6.58M | -4.41M | -18.59M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.27M | 18.97M | 8.93M | 10.99M | 16.34M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.62M | 16.95M | 6.07M | 8.11M | 13.14M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 1.17M | 1.07M | 3.98M | 957.00K | 2.05M |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.11M | 17.91M | 4.95M | 10.03M | 14.29M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -7.36M | -6.08M | -5.91M | -7.42M | -10.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -6.61M | -5.74M | -5.86M | -7.41M | -10.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -742.00K | 15.59M | 2.95M | 2.88M | 2.63M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.03M | 1.02M | 871.00K | -113.00K | 12.98M |
Vista Gold Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.97
Price Trends
3.30
Negative
3.04
Negative
2.52
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
48.23
Neutral
83.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VGZ, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.9699999999999998 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.78, below the 50-day MA of 3.30, and above the 200-day MA of 2.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:VGZ.
Vista Gold Risk Analysis
Vista Gold disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vista Gold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vista Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$337.45M | 3.75 | 31.06% | ― | 78.96% | 376.52% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | C$360.26M | 192.23 | -2.68% | ― | ― | -74.07% | |
48 Neutral | C$393.54M | -32.45 | -50.63% | ― | ― | -166.59% | |
| ― | C$811.55M | -33.01 | -7.77% | ― | ― | -111.93% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Vista Gold
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Vista Gold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Vista Gold Posts 2025 Loss but Fortifies Balance Sheet as Mt Todd Nears Design Phase
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Vista Gold reported audited 2025 results showing a net loss of $7.5 million, reversing a prior-year profit largely due to the absence of one-time gains booked in 2024, while year-end cash stood at $13.6 million with no debt. The company strengthen...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Vista Gold Raises US$44.85 Million to Advance Mt. Todd Gold Project
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Vista Gold Corp., a gold development company focused on the Mt. Todd project in Australia’s Northern Territory, is advancing what it describes as a leading development-stage gold deposit with strong economics and long-life potential. The com...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Vista Gold bolsters Australian leadership as Mt Todd project advances
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
Vista Gold Corp. has strengthened its Australian leadership team for the Mt Todd gold project with the appointment of three senior executives: Jeff Dang as Executive General Manager – Projects and Technical Services, Sharon Goddard as Execut...
Business Operations and Strategy
Vista Gold to Spotlight Mt Todd Project at 2026 Metals Investor Forum
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
Vista Gold Corp. will showcase its Mt Todd gold project at the Metals Investor Forum 2026 in Vancouver, where President and CEO Frederick H. Earnest is scheduled to appear alongside industry analyst John Kaiser and deliver a dedicated investor pre...
Business Operations and Strategy
Vista Gold Targets 2027 Start for Mt Todd Detailed Engineering
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
Vista Gold Corp. has set a target to commence detailed engineering and design for its Mt Todd gold project by early 2027, a step that would launch a 27‑month schedule for design, construction and commissioning of the mine. Building on a 2025...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.