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Vista Gold Corp. (TSE:VGZ)
TSX:VGZ
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Vista Gold
(TSX:VGZ)
Select Model
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.50
▼(-6.72% Downside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, ongoing operating losses, and persistent negative free cash flow). Support comes from a low-debt balance sheet and a constructive earnings-call narrative around improved Mt Todd project economics and leverage to gold prices. Technicals are mixed and valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend support.
Vista Gold (VGZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$355.63M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)97.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.16
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-166.59%
CountryCA
Employees13
SectorN/A
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding126,209,110
10 Day Avg. Volume111,012
30 Day Avg. Volume97,227
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)3.73
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-11.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$4.13Price Target Upside54.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Vista Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVista Gold Corp. (VGZ) is a mining and exploration company focused on the gold sector. The company is primarily engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold projects in North America. Vista Gold's flagship asset is the Mt Todd gold project located in Northern Territory, Australia, which is one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the region. Vista Gold aims to advance this project towards development while also exploring other opportunities to expand its portfolio.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Gold makes money through the exploration and potential development of gold mining projects. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the advancement of its Mt Todd gold project, which involves increasing the project's value through exploration, technical studies, and permitting activities. Additionally, Vista Gold may generate income through strategic partnerships, joint ventures, or by selling or leasing its interests in mining projects. The company may also benefit from fluctuations in gold prices, as higher gold prices can increase the potential profitability of its projects.
Vista Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a positive outlook with significant achievements in project development and financial management, despite a quarterly loss and decline in cash reserves. The strong increase in share price and completion of a new feasibility study contribute to an optimistic sentiment.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Completion of New Feasibility Study
Vista Gold completed a new feasibility study for the Mt Todd gold project, introducing a 15,000 tonne per day operation with significantly decreased initial capital costs from over $1 billion to $425 million.
Strong Financial Position
The company maintained a strong cash position with $13.7 million on hand and ended the quarter with no debt.
Safety Achievement
Vista Gold achieved four years without a lost-time accident at the Mt Todd site, demonstrating a strong commitment to safety.
Significant Share Price Increase
Vista shares increased approximately 210% year-to-date, driven by a rise in gold prices and strong market support for the new feasibility study.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Loss
For the 9-month period ended September 30, 2025, Vista reported a net loss of $5,787,000, compared to net income of $12,922,000 for the same period in 2024.
Decline in Cash Position
The cash position declined from $16.9 million at the end of 2024 to $13.7 million by September 2025, although the decline was mitigated by tax recoveries and ATM program usage.
Company Guidance
During the Vista Gold Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Corporate Update Conference Call, several key metrics and strategic insights were provided. The new feasibility study for the Mt Todd gold project, unveiled on July 29, 2025, reimagines the project as a 15,000 tonne per day operation, significantly reducing initial capital costs from over $1 billion to $425 million. This study projects a net present value (NPV) of USD 1.1 billion at a gold price of $2,500 per ounce, with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 27.8% and a payback period of 2.7 years. At a gold price of $3,300 per ounce, the NPV increases to $2.2 billion, with an IRR of 44.7% and a payback period of 1.7 years. The company's financial position remains robust with $13.7 million in cash and no debt as of September 30, 2025. They anticipate net recurring costs of approximately $7.4 million, plus an additional $2 million for ongoing work at Mt Todd over the next year. Additionally, Vista Gold has achieved four years without a lost-time accident, reflecting its commitment to safety. The call highlighted significant leverage to the price of gold and the potential for the project to generate approximately USD 300 million of free cash flow annually at a $3,500 per ounce gold price. Vista Gold's share performance has been strong, with a 210% year-to-date increase, supported by favorable market conditions and investor interest.Vista Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
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Vista Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
2.68
Price Trends
2.65
Positive
2.56
Positive
1.96
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
55.06
Neutral
81.55
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VGZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.89, above the 50-day MA of 2.65, and above the 200-day MA of 1.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VGZ.
Vista Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
TSE:VGZ
Vista Gold
2.94
2.13
262.96%
TSE:TRX
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration
1.35
0.88
184.21%
TSE:MMY
Monument Mining
1.26
0.93
282.98%
TSE:RDS
Radisson Mining Resources
0.92
0.56
155.56%
TSE:GGA
Goldgroup Mining
1.70
1.51
771.79%
TSE:AUXX
Goldshore Resources
0.90
0.63
233.33%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.