Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.16B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 87.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 0.67%
• EPS Growth: 11.59%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 159
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.71
• Shares Outstanding: 47,372,772
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 56,915
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 87,806
• PEG Ratio: 0.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$56.20
• Price Target Upside: 24.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$3.51B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$55.00 ▲(21.84% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improving profitability, solid cash generation, and conservative leverage, reinforced by a positive earnings-call read-through (strong ROE, combined ratio, and book value growth). The main offsets are the sharp reported 2025 revenue decline and technically stretched momentum signals that raise near-term pullback risk.

Positive Factors

Underwriting discipline and profitable margins

Consistent underwriting discipline (ROE in the high teens, combined ratio in the mid-80s) and meaningful margin expansion imply durable profitability. Improved gross and net margins through 2025 show the business can generate sustainable underwriting returns and compound capital over time.

Conservative leverage and strong equity growth

Low leverage and a growing equity base support underwriting capacity and loss absorption over economic cycles. A conservative balance sheet preserves flexibility for underwriting pull-through, reinsurance strategies and continued U.S. expansion without straining capital.

Reliable free cash flow and growing investment income

High cash conversion and rising investment income (assets ~$1.8B; investment income up) create steady internal funding for growth and capital returns. Durable cash generation reduces dependence on external financing and supports long-term underwriting capacity.

Negative Factors

Revenue volatility and sharp 2025 decline

A large, abrupt revenue contraction raises questions about business mix, premium retention and sustainable growth. Persistent top-line volatility can impair planning, increase operating leverage risk and make underwriting and investment returns harder to project over the medium term.

Rising expense ratio from mix shift

A structural shift into higher-expense specialty lines raises the company's fixed-cost burden and breakeven thresholds. If the mix persists, underwriting margins could be pressured, requiring sustained pricing discipline or higher premium growth to offset higher expense ratios.

Competitive pressure and premium declines in key lines

Ongoing competition in Canadian Fronting and measured growth in corporate insurance limit pricing power and premium expansion. Structural competitive pressures can compress underwriting income and slow durable top-line recovery unless offset by product differentiation or distribution gains.

Trisura Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trisura Group Ltd., a specialty insurance company, operates in the surety, risk solutions, corporate insurance, and reinsurance businesses in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers contract surety bonds, such as performance, and labor and material payment bonds primarily for the construction industry; commercial surety bonds, including license and permit, tax and excise, and fiduciary bonds to governments, regulatory bodies, or courts to guarantee compliance with legal or fiduciary obligations; and developer surety bonds comprising bonds to secure real estate developers' legislated deposit and warranty obligations on residential projects. It provides risk solutions, including warranty programs to program administrators, managing general agents, captive insurance companies, affinity groups, and reinsurers. The company also offers corporate insurance products that comprise directors' and officers' insurance for public, private, and non-profit enterprises; errors and omissions liability insurance for enterprises and professionals; business office package insurance for enterprises and professionals; and fidelity insurance for commercial and financial institutions. Trisura Group Ltd. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Trisura Group Ltd generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance premiums, which are collected from policyholders in exchange for coverage against specified risks. The company earns significant income from its surety bonds, which guarantee the performance of contractors and businesses in various industries. Additionally, Trisura receives investment income from the premium reserves it holds before claims are paid out. The company's revenue model is bolstered by strategic partnerships with brokers and agents, which facilitate access to a broader client base. Furthermore, Trisura benefits from diversification across different insurance sectors, allowing it to mitigate risks and stabilize earnings.

Trisura Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and margins improved meaningfully through 2025, the balance sheet remains conservatively levered (debt-to-equity ~0.17 in 2025), and free cash flow tracks net income closely. Key risks are the sharp reported 2025 revenue decline (-56%) and historically volatile operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Profitability improved meaningfully from 2022 to 2025, with gross margin moving from negative (-21.6% in 2022) to solid levels (27.1% in 2025) and net margin expanding to 16.4% in 2025 (vs. 15.3% in 2024 and 9.4% in 2023). Earnings have scaled alongside higher operating profitability (EBIT margin 22.4% in 2025). The key weakness is growth volatility: revenue expanded strongly from 2020–2024, but 2025 shows a sharp reported revenue decline (-56.0%), which raises questions around sustainability and/or business mix changes.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively levered, with debt-to-equity staying low across the period (roughly 0.13–0.24) and still modest at 0.17 in 2025. Equity has compounded strongly (from ~$290M in 2020 to ~$925M in 2025), supporting balance-sheet resilience. A watch item is that total debt increased in 2025 (~$157M vs. ~$108M in 2024), though leverage remains reasonable for the business.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: free cash flow closely tracks net income each year (about ~97%–100%), suggesting good earnings quality. 2025 free cash flow rose 26.1% and operating cash flow was strong (~$383M). The main weakness is volatility in cash conversion year-to-year, including unusually weak operating cash flow relative to earnings in 2024 (coverage ~0.09) and a negative figure in 2023, which implies working-capital or timing-driven swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	867.95M	778.83M	711.34M	520.77M	349.88M
Gross Profit	235.35M	197.19M	118.13M	-112.58M	159.79M
EBITDA	198.19M	163.19M	94.49M	46.01M	86.01M
Net Income	142.25M	118.92M	66.94M	27.80M	62.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.01B	4.59B	3.58B	4.28B	3.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.76B	1.36B	611.52M	1.17B	341.32M
Total Debt	157.03M	107.57M	84.70M	86.74M	84.68M
Total Liabilities	4.08B	3.81B	2.97B	3.80B	2.64B
Stockholders Equity	924.67M	785.27M	619.43M	493.65M	358.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	377.67M	115.89M	257.20M	148.80M	303.39M
Operating Cash Flow	382.80M	119.73M	257.91M	150.93M	306.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-387.70M	-471.81M	-117.34M	-241.99M	-148.65M
Financing Cash Flow	24.80M	22.04M	48.06M	141.59M	45.15M

Trisura Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 45.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TSU, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 45.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.82, above the 50-day MA of 44.56, and above the 200-day MA of 41.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TSU.

Trisura Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IFC	74 Outperform	C$45.38B	15.12	16.27%	1.86%	2.51%	44.44%
SLF	72 Outperform	C$49.59B	12.88	14.25%	4.11%	-19.88%	-13.92%
IAG	72 Outperform	C$13.74B	15.09	14.34%	2.11%	-25.13%	16.40%
TSU	71 Outperform	C$2.16B	14.35	15.79%	―	0.67%	11.59%
SFC	69 Neutral	C$1.29B	2.50	13.36%	4.03%	-10.94%	-73.26%
DFY	68 Neutral	C$8.24B	21.30	13.44%	0.98%	19.80%	-12.93%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Trisura Group Ltd Corporate Events

Trisura Posts Robust 2025 Results on Strong Underwriting and Investment Income

Trisura Group reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, underscoring disciplined underwriting and growing investment income. The specialty insurer grew book value per share 18.1% to $19.42, delivered a full-year combined ratio of 84.9%, and expanded net insurance revenue by 12.1%, driven by primary lines and surety, particularly in Canada and its scaling U.S. operations.

Fourth-quarter operating net income dipped 4.2% to $36.6 million on a higher combined ratio, but net income nearly doubled to $37.6 million on increased investment gains. With record capital of $925 million and a modest 12.7% debt-to-capital ratio, Trisura signaled ample financial flexibility to support its U.S. surety build-out and broader growth initiatives, maintaining strong operating ROE despite higher shareholders’ equity levels.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TSU) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trisura Group Ltd stock, see the TSE:TSU Stock Forecast page.

Trisura Sets February Dates for Q4 and 2025 Full-Year Results and Earnings Call

Trisura Group Ltd., a Toronto-listed specialty insurer focused on surety, warranty, corporate insurance, program and fronting business lines in Canada and the United States, conducts its operations through wholly owned subsidiaries and directs investors to its website and regulatory filings for detailed disclosures. The company announced it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after markets close on February 12, 2026, followed by an earnings conference call with President and CEO David Clare and CFO David Scotland on February 13, 2026, providing analysts and investors an opportunity to assess recent performance and outlook via a live webcast and replay.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TSU) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trisura Group Ltd stock, see the TSE:TSU Stock Forecast page.