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Trisura Group Ltd (TSE:TSU)
TSX:TSU

Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TSU

Trisura Group Ltd

(TSX:TSU)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$45.00
▲(12.67% Upside)
Trisura Group Ltd's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, highlighting growth in primary lines and investment income. Technical indicators are neutral, and the valuation is reasonable. The absence of a dividend yield is a minor drawback.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The 16% increase in net insurance revenue indicates strong demand for Trisura's products, supporting long-term growth and market expansion.
U.S. Market Expansion
Strategic expansion in the U.S. market enhances Trisura's growth potential and diversifies revenue streams, reducing reliance on Canadian operations.
Strong Cash Flow
Significant free cash flow growth underscores Trisura's ability to generate cash, supporting reinvestment and financial stability over the long term.
Negative Factors
Premium Decline in Canadian Fronting
Declining premiums in Canadian Fronting suggest competitive challenges, potentially impacting revenue and profitability in this segment.
Higher Expense Ratios
Rising expense ratios could pressure margins, affecting profitability unless offset by revenue growth or cost management improvements.
Competitive Pressure in Corporate Insurance
Intense competition in corporate insurance may limit growth and profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain market position.

Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Trisura Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrisura Group Ltd., a specialty insurance company, operates in the surety, risk solutions, corporate insurance, and reinsurance businesses in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers contract surety bonds, such as performance, and labor and material payment bonds primarily for the construction industry; commercial surety bonds, including license and permit, tax and excise, and fiduciary bonds to governments, regulatory bodies, or courts to guarantee compliance with legal or fiduciary obligations; and developer surety bonds comprising bonds to secure real estate developers' legislated deposit and warranty obligations on residential projects. It provides risk solutions, including warranty programs to program administrators, managing general agents, captive insurance companies, affinity groups, and reinsurers. The company also offers corporate insurance products that comprise directors' and officers' insurance for public, private, and non-profit enterprises; errors and omissions liability insurance for enterprises and professionals; business office package insurance for enterprises and professionals; and fidelity insurance for commercial and financial institutions. Trisura Group Ltd. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrisura Group Ltd generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance premiums, which are collected from policyholders in exchange for coverage against specified risks. The company earns significant income from its surety bonds, which guarantee the performance of contractors and businesses in various industries. Additionally, Trisura receives investment income from the premium reserves it holds before claims are paid out. The company's revenue model is bolstered by strategic partnerships with brokers and agents, which facilitate access to a broader client base. Furthermore, Trisura benefits from diversification across different insurance sectors, allowing it to mitigate risks and stabilize earnings.

Trisura Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant growth in primary lines and investment income, alongside strategic expansion in the U.S. However, challenges such as premium declines in Canadian Fronting and competitive pressures in corporate insurance were noted.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Metrics
Operating ROE in high teens and combined ratio in mid-80s, demonstrating continued underwriting discipline. Book value per share increased by over 20% year-over-year to $18.90.
Significant Growth in Primary Lines
Net insurance revenue increased 16% driven by surety, warranty, and corporate insurance lines. Surety net insurance revenue grew 25% year-over-year.
U.S. Programs and Investment Income Growth
U.S. programs saw 18% growth in gross written premiums with admitted business reaching a record $179 million. Investment income reached $20 million, up 24% year-over-year.
Expansion into U.S. Markets
Continued investment in U.S. expansion, particularly in surety and corporate insurance, with the U.S. surety platform now contributing over 40% of surety premiums.
Negative Updates
Premium Decline in Canadian Fronting
Canadian Fronting experienced a decline in premiums due to continued competition, although underwriting income improved.
Higher Expense Ratios
The expense ratio increased due to a shift towards Trisura Specialty, which has a higher expense ratio than the U.S. programs business.
Competitive Pressure in Corporate Insurance
Corporate Insurance growth was measured due to competitive pressure, impacting net underwriting income by nearly $2 million.
Company Guidance
During Trisura Group Limited's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a strong performance with several key metrics highlighted. The operating return on equity (ROE) was in the high teens, reflecting continued underwriting discipline, while the combined ratio remained in the mid-80s. Book value per share increased over 20% year-over-year to $18.90. Net insurance revenue rose by 16% this quarter, with surety revenue up 25% year-over-year, despite a slight decline in premiums relative to Q3 2024. The U.S. programs saw an 18% increase in gross written premiums, with admitted business reaching a record $179 million, marking a 22% rise. Investment income hit new highs, with $1.8 billion in assets and $20 million of income, an increase of 24% year-over-year. Trisura achieved an operating EPS of $0.71 per share, growing 4.4% over the prior year, and gross premiums written reached $853 million, an 11% increase year-over-year. The company remains well-capitalized, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 13% and a focus on disciplined underwriting and strategic growth in niche specialty lines.

Trisura Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trisura Group Ltd demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet reflects prudent leverage and strong returns on equity, though there is potential to enhance equity levels. While profitability margins have room for improvement, the company's financial trajectory remains positive, positioning it well for future growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Trisura Group Ltd shows a strong revenue growth rate of 8.69% in the TTM period, indicating positive momentum. The gross profit margin is robust at 63.20%, though it has decreased from the previous year's 100% due to changes in revenue recognition or cost structure. The net profit margin of 6.19% is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in cost management or pricing strategy. EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined compared to the previous year, reflecting potential operational inefficiencies or increased competition.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 15.20%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio of 18.15% suggests a stable capital structure, though there is room to increase equity to enhance financial stability.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Trisura Group Ltd exhibits impressive free cash flow growth of 24,618.18% in the TTM period, highlighting significant improvements in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, which could provide additional insights into cash flow efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.97B778.83M711.34M520.77M349.88M226.63M
Gross Profit151.85M197.19M118.13M-112.58M159.79M98.16M
EBITDA172.04M163.19M94.49M46.01M86.01M43.22M
Net Income123.93M118.92M66.94M27.80M62.56M32.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.88B4.59B3.58B4.28B3.00B1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.001.36B611.52M1.17B341.32M136.52M
Total Debt157.58M107.57M84.70M86.74M84.68M36.35M
Total Liabilities3.97B3.81B2.97B3.80B2.64B1.42B
Stockholders Equity903.57M785.27M619.43M493.65M358.79M289.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow376.68M115.89M257.20M148.80M303.39M82.05M
Operating Cash Flow380.06M119.73M257.91M150.93M306.85M83.34M
Investing Cash Flow-415.70M-471.81M-117.34M-241.99M-148.65M-94.40M
Financing Cash Flow33.95M22.04M48.06M141.59M45.15M63.63M

Trisura Group Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price39.94
Price Trends
50DMA
38.89
Positive
100DMA
39.84
Positive
200DMA
38.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.16
Positive
RSI
53.42
Neutral
STOCH
54.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TSU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.85, above the 50-day MA of 38.89, and above the 200-day MA of 38.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TSU.

Trisura Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$1.90B15.3715.79%0.67%11.59%
69
Neutral
$1.22B6.5613.36%4.20%-10.94%-73.26%
68
Neutral
$1.78B14.085.11%4.70%-11.26%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
63
Neutral
C$1.96B8.7118.88%4.54%13.69%-16.06%
61
Neutral
C$870.27M-11.02-6.98%333.02%-196.36%
60
Neutral
C$2.88B15.6727.73%6.40%24.34%13.13%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TSU
Trisura Group Ltd
39.94
-1.71
-4.11%
TSE:LB
Laurentian Bank
39.96
11.67
41.25%
TSE:FN
First National Financial
47.98
8.93
22.87%
TSE:WED
Westaim
26.07
-4.53
-14.80%
TSE:GSY
goeasy
122.28
-35.69
-22.59%
TSE:SFC
Sagicor Financial
8.98
2.99
50.08%

Trisura Group Ltd Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Trisura Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Trisura Group Ltd. reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showcasing consistent growth and profitability. The company achieved an operating return on equity of 18.0% and a net income of $38.6 million, driven by a 23.8% increase in net investment income and a 16.2% growth in primary lines. The combined ratio of 86.0% reflects solid underwriting performance, while the book value per share increased by 20.8% year-over-year. Trisura’s financial flexibility is reinforced by a conservative debt-to-capital ratio of 13.0%, supporting continued growth and capitalizing its US Surety balance sheet.

Financial Disclosures
Trisura Group Ltd. Schedules Q3 2025 Results Release and Conference Call
Neutral
Oct 30, 2025

Trisura Group Ltd., a leading specialty insurer, has announced the release schedule for its third quarter 2025 financial results, which will be available after market close on November 6, 2025. The company will also host an earnings conference call for analysts and investors on November 7, 2025, featuring key executives. This announcement is part of Trisura’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders and provide insights into its financial performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025