Trisura Group Ltd (TSE:TSU)
TSX:TSU
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Trisura Group Ltd
(TSX:TSU)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$50.00
▲(6.34% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability, strong free-cash-flow generation, and conservative leverage, reinforced by a positive earnings-call read-through (strong ROE, combined ratio, and book value growth). Offsetting factors are the sharp reported 2025 revenue decline and mixed technical momentum (negative MACD), while valuation appears reasonable on P/E but lacks dividend-yield support.
Positive Factors
Improved underwriting profitability
Underwriting results materially improved through 2025, with gross margin shifting positive and net margin at 16.4%. Coupled with reported combined ratios in the mid-80s and ROE in the high teens, this demonstrates durable underwriting discipline and margin recovery that supports long-term earnings power.
Negative Factors
Sharp reported revenue decline
A sudden 56% reported revenue drop raises questions about sustainable premium generation and business-mix shifts. Persistent revenue volatility undermines growth visibility, may pressure scale economics in specialty lines, and complicates long-term planning for distribution and reinsurance needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved underwriting profitability
Underwriting results materially improved through 2025, with gross margin shifting positive and net margin at 16.4%. Coupled with reported combined ratios in the mid-80s and ROE in the high teens, this demonstrates durable underwriting discipline and margin recovery that supports long-term earnings power.
Read all positive factors
Trisura Group Ltd (TSU) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)87.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth-0.25%
EPS Growth19.64%
CountryCA
Employees159
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.71
Shares Outstanding47,372,772
10 Day Avg. Volume56,915
30 Day Avg. Volume87,806
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.75
Price to Book (P/B)2.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.35
P/FCF Ratio5.41
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$56.20Price Target Upside19.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$3.51B
Trisura Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trisura Group Ltd., a specialty insurance company, operates in the surety, risk solutions, corporate insurance, and reinsurance businesses in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers contract surety bonds, such as perform...
How the Company Makes Money
Trisura makes money primarily through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income on its insurance float. Underwriting income is generated by charging premiums for specialty insurance policies—most notably surety (e.g., contract and commerci...
Trisura Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive outlook: strong profitability (17% operating ROE), solid premium and revenue growth across core segments, double‑digit book value expansion, notable successes in Surety (36% growth, U.S. top‑30 ranking), Warranty (17% growth) and a conservative, opportunity‑ready investment posture. Challenges were acknowledged—quarterly combined ratio was higher versus a strong 2024 comparator, underwriting income was down vs prior year quarter, Canadian fronting remains soft and Surety growth is expected to normalize—but these issues are presented as manageable within a well‑capitalized platform with disciplined underwriting and strategic focus. Overall, highlights outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Operating Returns
Operating return on equity of 17% (exceeding mid‑teens target); operating EPS of $0.75 for the quarter and $2.85 for the full year; operating net income of $36.5 million for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Increase in Combined Ratio vs Prior Year
The group's combined ratio of 85% in the quarter was higher than the prior year; loss ratio was slightly larger due to a higher loss ratio at Trisura Specialty compared to an unusually low 2024, and expense ratio rose due to higher contingent profit commissions and a more normalized expense ratio at U.S. programs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and Operating Returns
Operating return on equity of 17% (exceeding mid‑teens target); operating EPS of $0.75 for the quarter and $2.85 for the full year; operating net income of $36.5 million for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated guidance for continued profitable growth, targeting premium growth, operating return on equity and book value per share growth in excess of 15% and reaffirmed the $1.0 billion book‑value goal (BVPS $19.42 at Dec 31, 2025; FY book value +18%, five‑year average BV growth 26%, total book value >$920m), while remaining conservatively leveraged (debt‑to‑capital 12.7% vs a 25% target) and reporting operating ROE of 17% (operating EPS $2.85 FY, $0.75 Q4). At a business‑line level they expect Trisura Specialty to grow mid‑teens with a combined ratio ~86–87% next year (Q4 combined ratio 85%, FY 84.9%), U.S. programs to grow mid‑ to high‑single digits with a low‑80s combined ratio (Q4 GWP +17%, FY +4%, combined ratio ~81%), and highlighted momentum in Surety (+36% premium, pace to normalize), Warranty (+17%) and Primary lines (+15%); quarterly net insurance revenue was $200m (+11.8%), net investment income $21.5m (+25%) and FY interest/dividend income ~ $83m (+18%).Trisura Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 867.95M | 778.83M | 711.34M | 520.77M | 349.88M |
| Gross Profit | 235.35M | 197.19M | 118.13M | -112.58M | 159.79M |
| EBITDA | 198.19M | 163.19M | 94.49M | 46.01M | 86.01M |
| Net Income | 142.25M | 118.92M | 66.94M | 27.80M | 62.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.01B | 4.59B | 3.58B | 4.28B | 3.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.76B | 1.36B | 611.52M | 1.17B | 341.32M |
| Total Debt | 157.03M | 107.57M | 84.70M | 86.74M | 84.68M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.08B | 3.81B | 2.97B | 3.80B | 2.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 924.67M | 785.27M | 619.43M | 493.65M | 358.79M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 377.67M | 115.89M | 257.20M | 148.80M | 303.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 382.80M | 119.73M | 257.91M | 150.93M | 306.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -387.70M | -471.81M | -117.34M | -241.99M | -148.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 24.80M | 22.04M | 48.06M | 141.59M | 45.15M |
Trisura Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
47.02
Price Trends
44.86
Positive
43.64
Positive
42.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.66
Negative
63.72
Neutral
89.96
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TSU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.21, above the 50-day MA of 44.86, and above the 200-day MA of 42.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TSU.
Trisura Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$45.57B | 13.21 | 17.09% | 1.86% | 5.51% | 48.59% | |
72 Outperform | C$54.14B | 12.88 | 14.68% | 4.11% | 1.37% | 17.16% | |
72 Outperform | C$15.81B | 15.09 | 13.62% | 2.11% | 3.39% | 15.42% | |
71 Outperform | C$2.15B | 14.35 | 16.30% | ― | -0.25% | 19.64% | |
68 Neutral | C$8.29B | 21.30 | 11.01% | 0.98% | 16.49% | -5.26% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.32B | 13.75 | 6.62% | 4.03% | -10.65% | -30.19% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:TSU
Trisura Group Ltd
45.41
7.66
20.29%
TSE:SLF
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97.74
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25.62%
TSE:IAG
iA Financial Corporation Inc
175.41
46.66
36.24%
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Intact Financial Corporation
256.63
-35.88
-12.27%
TSE:SFC
Sagicor Financial
9.70
2.37
32.41%
TSE:DFY
Definity Financial Corp.
68.19
2.32
3.53%
Trisura Group Ltd Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Trisura Group Reshapes Board as Founder Retires and Veteran Executive Joins
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
Trisura Group Ltd., a Toronto-listed specialty insurer focused on surety, warranty, corporate insurance, program and fronting business lines in Canada and the U.S., continues to build out its leadership bench as it advances its growth strategy. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Trisura to Raise C$200 Million Through Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Trisura Group Ltd., a Toronto-listed specialty insurer focused on surety, warranty, corporate insurance and fronting solutions in Canada and the U.S., continues to build its presence in niche commercial and specialty risk markets through its netwo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trisura Posts Robust 2025 Results on Strong Underwriting and Investment Income
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Trisura Group reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, underscoring disciplined underwriting and growing investment income. The specialty insurer grew book value per share 18.1% to $19.42, delivered a full-year combined ratio of ...
Financial Disclosures
Trisura Sets February Dates for Q4 and 2025 Full-Year Results and Earnings Call
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
Trisura Group Ltd., a Toronto-listed specialty insurer focused on surety, warranty, corporate insurance, program and fronting business lines in Canada and the United States, conducts its operations through wholly owned subsidiaries and directs inv...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.