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Telesat Corp (TSE:TSAT)
TSX:TSAT

Telesat Corp (TSAT) AI Stock Analysis

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Telesat Corp

(TSX:TSAT)

47Neutral
Telesat Corp's overall stock score reflects substantial financial challenges, with declining revenue and negative profitability margins. Technical indicators suggest weak momentum, and valuation metrics are unfavorable. Despite some positive developments noted in the earnings call, such as financing and debt management, these are outweighed by anticipated revenue declines and significant net losses, leading to a cautious outlook.

Telesat Corp (TSAT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Telesat Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTelesat Corp (TSAT) is a leading global satellite operator, providing reliable and secure satellite-delivered communications solutions worldwide. The company operates in sectors such as telecommunications, broadcast, and government, offering core services that include satellite bandwidth, managed network services, and earth station services. Telesat's fleet of geostationary satellites supports a wide array of applications, ensuring connectivity for enterprise, government, and individual users.
How the Company Makes MoneyTelesat makes money primarily by leasing satellite capacity to various customers, including telecommunications companies, broadcasters, and government agencies. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts for satellite bandwidth, managed services that offer end-to-end network solutions, and consulting services related to satellite operations. Significant partnerships with global telecom operators and technology firms also contribute to Telesat's earnings, enhancing its capability to deliver comprehensive communication solutions across diverse markets.

Telesat Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Telesat Corp is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and negative profitability margins. High leverage and negative ROE on the balance sheet, combined with volatile cash flows, suggest potential liquidity risks. While there are strengths like a high gross profit margin, the overall financial trajectory is concerning.
Income Statement
Telesat Corp's income statement reveals a concerning trend with declining revenues, dropping from $910.9M in 2019 to $571.0M in 2024, indicating a significant revenue contraction. The gross profit margin remains relatively high at 93.4% in 2024, reflecting strong cost control over direct expenses. However, the net profit margin is a major concern as it turned negative in 2024 (-15.4%), driven by a negative EBIT margin (-7.1%). The EBITDA margin was also impacted, dropping to 11.7% in 2024 from healthier figures in prior years. Overall, the declining revenue and negative profitability margins indicate financial challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
The balance sheet indicates a moderately leveraged position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.41 in 2024, suggesting a high reliance on debt financing. This high leverage poses potential risks, especially given the declining revenue. The equity ratio stood at 10.2% in 2024, showing a slight improvement over previous years, suggesting some strengthening in equity. ROE was negative in 2024 (-12.4%), reflecting losses impacting shareholder returns. While the improvement in equity is a positive sign, the high leverage remains a concern.
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows volatility, with free cash flow fluctuating from $355.4M in 2020 to negative $2.4M in 2024, highlighting operational challenges. Operating cash flow remains positive at $62.5M in 2024, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to the net loss, indicating inefficiencies in cash conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also below 1, suggesting that operational cash generation is weak compared to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position reflects instability and potential liquidity concerns.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
571.04M704.16M759.17M758.21M820.47M
Gross Profit
533.07M665.65M705.16M728.00M787.10M
EBIT
-40.27M568.85M296.45M411.86M404.54M
EBITDA
67.02M1.14B394.71M626.05M634.74M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-87.72M157.12M-80.12M157.76M244.82M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
552.63M1.67B1.68B1.45B818.83M
Total Assets
6.95B6.27B6.48B6.37B5.58B
Total Debt
3.13B3.23B3.85B3.79B3.22B
Net Debt
2.58B1.56B2.17B2.34B2.40B
Total Liabilities
4.45B3.88B4.64B4.67B4.12B
Stockholders Equity
710.28M661.92M480.37M416.52M1.46B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-2.39M29.58M164.27M260.61M355.35M
Operating Cash Flow
62.46M169.09M228.85M296.39M371.68M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.09B211.93M74.00K-272.86M-92.23M
Financing Cash Flow
-170.20M-354.65M-104.86M605.24M-450.24M

Telesat Corp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price22.23
Price Trends
50DMA
25.95
Negative
100DMA
25.83
Negative
200DMA
20.73
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.23
Negative
RSI
42.39
Neutral
STOCH
50.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TSAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.02, below the 50-day MA of 25.95, and above the 200-day MA of 20.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TSAT.

Telesat Corp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$8.59B11.6238.85%3.49%3.76%14.27%
TSNPI
76
Outperform
$4.77B17.706.48%6.50%5.08%
TSCCA
74
Outperform
$2.81B8.5510.84%5.32%0.21%-6.81%
74
Outperform
$19.43B10.7216.65%5.64%1.50%193.09%
64
Neutral
C$590.30M-6.14%3.44%9.94%-147.16%
60
Neutral
$10.93B10.46-6.70%2.99%7.54%-12.22%
47
Neutral
$325.45M8.35-12.50%-18.90%-152.63%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TSAT
Telesat Corp
22.23
12.43
126.84%
TSE:NPI
Northland Power
18.35
-1.97
-9.69%
TSE:CCA
Cogeco Communications
66.11
12.67
23.70%
TSE:QBR.B
Quebecor
37.57
9.73
34.93%
TSE:RCI.B
Rogers Communication
35.10
-15.45
-30.57%
TSE:RAY.A
Stingray Digit SV
8.71
1.54
21.48%

Telesat Corp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -23.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Telesat's earnings call presented a balanced perspective with significant strategic advancements in the LEO segment, debt management, and strategic partnerships. However, these were offset by revenue declines, increased operating expenses, and ongoing net losses.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Progress in LEO Segment
Telesat made significant progress in its LEO segment, Telesat Lightspeed, with a nearly CAD1.1 billion backlog as of today and a new multiyear agreement with ViaSat.
Debt Repurchase and Interest Savings
Telesat achieved interest savings of approximately USD 54 million annually due to a cumulative principal amount of debt repurchases totaling USD 849 million at a cost of USD 459 million.
Strategic Agreements and Partnerships
Telesat signed a significant multiyear agreement with ViaSat and has strategic agreements with Orange, ADN, and a term sheet with Space Norway.
Cash Flow and Financing
Telesat generated cash from operations of $139 million in Q1 2025 and completed the first two draws on financing facilities with the government of Canada and Quebec, receiving CAD 340 million.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decrease
Telesat's revenues decreased by $25 million to $117 million in Q1 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024 due to the renewal of a long-term agreement with a North American direct-to-home customer at a lower rate.
Increase in Operating Expenses
Operating expenses increased by $6 million to $53 million, primarily due to increased headcount at Telesat Lightspeed and higher legal and professional fees.
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $43 million to $67 million in Q1 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 57.7%.
Net Loss
Telesat reported a net loss of $51 million for Q1 2025 compared to a net loss of $52 million for the same period in the prior year.
Company Guidance
During Telesat's conference call to discuss the first quarter 2025 financial results, the company reiterated its guidance for the year. Telesat expects full-year revenues to range from $405 million to $425 million, with total adjusted EBITDA projected between CAD 170 million to CAD 190 million. The company also anticipates operating expenses for Telesat Lightspeed to be between $110 million to $120 million, up from $72 million in 2024. Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between CAD 900 million to CAD 1.1 billion, primarily for Telesat Lightspeed. The guidance assumes a Canadian dollar to US dollar exchange rate of CAD 1.42. Additionally, Telesat ended the first quarter with $797 million in cash and expects to meet its cash requirements with $2.2 billion available under funding agreements with the Canadian and Quebec governments.

Telesat Corp Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Telesat Secures Multi-Year Contract with Viasat for Lightspeed Services
Positive
Apr 7, 2025

Telesat has secured a significant multi-year contract with Viasat Inc. to provide Telesat Lightspeed Low Earth Orbit services, which Viasat will integrate into its offerings for aviation, maritime, enterprise, and defense markets. This partnership will enhance Viasat’s broadband connectivity services, allowing thousands of airplanes equipped with Viasat’s technology to access the Telesat Lightspeed network by 2027, and supports Viasat’s network automation goals, positioning Telesat as a key player in the dynamic broadband connectivity market.

Spark’s Take on TSE:TSAT Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:TSAT is a Neutral.

Telesat Corp’s overall stock score reflects substantial financial challenges, with declining revenue and negative profitability margins. Technical indicators suggest weak momentum, and valuation metrics are unfavorable. Despite some positive developments noted in the earnings call, such as financing and debt management, these are outweighed by anticipated revenue declines and significant net losses, leading to a cautious outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:TSAT stock, click here.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.