Telesat Corporation (TSE:TSAT)
NASDAQ:TSAT
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Telesat Corp
(NASDAQ:TSAT)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
C$78.00
▲(9.95% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—high leverage, persistent net losses, and materially negative operating and free cash flow—despite improving operating margins. This is partially offset by strong technical momentum with the stock well above key moving averages and a positive MACD. Valuation is only modestly supportive because the negative P/E reflects unprofitability and no dividend yield is provided.
Positive Factors
Strong gross and improving operating margins
Sustained ~64% gross margin and a positive ~15% operating margin indicate durable unit economics and operational leverage. This provides room to absorb investments and pricing pressure while protecting core profitability as revenue initiatives and Lightspeed progress over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Extremely elevated debt-to-equity (~7.0) materially reduces financial flexibility, increases interest burden, and raises vulnerability to revenue shocks. High leverage constrains capital allocation for Lightspeed and fleet upkeep, heightening long-term execution and refinancing risk.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong gross and improving operating margins
Sustained ~64% gross margin and a positive ~15% operating margin indicate durable unit economics and operational leverage. This provides room to absorb investments and pricing pressure while protecting core profitability as revenue initiatives and Lightspeed progress over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Telesat Corp (TSAT) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)50.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth-27.51%
EPS Growth-102.19%
CountryCA
Employees610
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-11.78
Shares Outstanding15,105,250
10 Day Avg. Volume55,009
30 Day Avg. Volume50,372
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)1.39
P/FCF Ratio-0.83
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$74.95Price Target Upside5.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-7.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$319.23M
Telesat Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telesat Corporation, a satellite operator, provides mission-critical communications services to broadcast, enterprise, and consulting customers worldwide. The company's satellite-based services allow direct-to-home (DTH) service providers to deliv...
How the Company Makes Money
Telesat primarily makes money by selling satellite capacity and connectivity services delivered over its satellite fleet. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Long-term service agreements/leases for dedicated bandwidth or transponder capacit...
Telesat Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed clear operational and strategic progress — notably a positive adjusted EBITDA beat, robust Lightspeed development, strategic defense-focused spectrum and partnership wins, and available project financing — but balanced by meaningful near-term financial and execution risks: a materially larger net loss, a sizable decline forecast for legacy GEO revenue, heavy Lightspeed cash burn ($1.0–$1.2B guidance for 2026), and the need to refinance $1.7B of Telesat Canada debt by December 2026. The company portrays confidence in addressing schedule and supply-chain risks (Mil Ka addition and chip supply) and expects to grow Lightspeed backlog, yet the combination of refinancing risk and elevated near-term spend tempers the overall picture.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Beat and Solid Cash Position
2025 adjusted EBITDA of $213 million exceeded guidance of $170–$190 million. Company ended 2025 with $510 million of cash on the consolidated balance sheet ($206 million in GEO, $337 million in LEO).
Negative Updates
Increased Net Loss and Impairments
Net loss widened to $530 million in 2025 versus $302 million in 2024 (negative variance cited as ~$220 million), driven by reduced revenue and EBITDA, impairment of GEO goodwill, and an increase in the derivative liability from higher Lightspeed valuation.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Beat and Solid Cash Position
2025 adjusted EBITDA of $213 million exceeded guidance of $170–$190 million. Company ended 2025 with $510 million of cash on the consolidated balance sheet ($206 million in GEO, $337 million in LEO).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Telesat’s 2026 guidance split legacy GEO and Lightspeed (LEO): GEO revenue is expected at $300–320M in 2026 (a YoY decline of $90–110M from 2025’s $418M) with GEO adjusted EBITDA of $210–220M (excluding refinancing costs), while Lightspeed total investment is guided to $1.0–1.2B in 2026 (including CapEx, capitalized labor, interest and OpEx), with Lightspeed OpEx of roughly $90–110M; management reported 2025 results of $418M revenue, $213M adjusted EBITDA (Q4: $94M revenue, $40M adj. EBITDA), $510M cash on the consolidated balance sheet, 2025 CapEx (accrued) of $708M (vs prior guidance $900–1.1B), interest expense $200M (down from $240M in 2024), $29M of non‑cash interest capitalized, net loss $530M, GEO EBITDA $284M ($317M excluding $33M of equity distribution/refinancing costs) and a 77% GEO margin; liquidity at year‑end included ~$206M cash in GEO and $337M in LEO plus $1.82B available under Lightspeed financing and $325M vendor financing, the company assumes CAD/USD 1.38, remains covenant‑compliant, faces $1.7B of Telesat Canada debt maturing Dec‑2026, added 500 MHz of Mil‑Ka (25% of Lightspeed spectrum) at an incremental cost of ~$25M (<0.5% of the first‑156 satellite program cost), and now expects to reach full global commercial service around Q1 2028 after a ~3‑month slip.Telesat Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 359.77M | 417.96M | 571.04M | 704.16M | 759.17M | 758.21M |
| Gross Profit | 182.96M | 153.71M | 533.07M | 665.65M | 705.16M | 728.00M |
| EBITDA | 215.06M | 206.18M | 67.02M | 1.14B | 394.71M | 626.05M |
| Net Income | -175.37M | -155.35M | -87.72M | 157.12M | -80.12M | 157.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.69B | 6.60B | 6.95B | 6.27B | 6.48B | 6.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 522.73M | 509.80M | 552.63M | 1.67B | 1.68B | 1.45B |
| Total Debt | 3.64B | 3.53B | 3.13B | 3.23B | 3.88B | 3.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.03B | 4.83B | 4.45B | 3.88B | 4.64B | 4.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 519.01M | 530.82M | 710.28M | 661.92M | 480.37M | 416.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -569.40M | -698.42M | -2.39M | 29.58M | 164.27M | 260.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -68.60M | 66.70M | 62.46M | 169.09M | 228.85M | 296.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -649.23M | -761.23M | -1.09B | 211.93M | 74.00K | -272.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 460.23M | 672.36M | -170.20M | -354.65M | -104.86M | 605.24M |
Telesat Corp Technical Analysis
Positive
70.94
Price Trends
60.88
Positive
51.22
Positive
43.94
Positive
Market Momentum
3.33
Positive
54.19
Neutral
63.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TSAT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.50, above the 50-day MA of 60.88, and above the 200-day MA of 43.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TSAT.
Telesat Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$1.25B | 14.79 | 24.86% | 5.97% | 3.11% | 3.49% | |
65 Neutral | C$324.36M | -323.95 | -6.16% | 2.14% | -8.60% | -455.10% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
58 Neutral | C$1.09B | -4.14 | -32.99% | ― | -27.51% | -102.19% | |
54 Neutral | C$5.67M | 2.85 | ― | ― | 37.04% | ― | |
47 Neutral | C$43.95M | 310.31 | -4.10% | 1.52% | -26.68% | -92.00% | |
45 Neutral | C$39.69M | -4.28 | ― | ― | -10.80% | 31.36% |
* Technology Sector Average
TSE:TSAT
Telesat Corp
69.28
47.53
218.53%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.