Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSE:TFPM)
TSX:TFPM
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Triple Flag Precious Metals
(TSX:TFPM)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$52.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
Overall score reflects strong financial quality led by an ultra-low-debt balance sheet and high 2025 profitability/cash generation, supported by constructive long-term messaging from the earnings call. The score is tempered by year-to-year earnings/FCF volatility, only modest current technical momentum, and a comparatively high P/E with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Asset-light Business Model
Triple Flag’s royalty/streaming model is structurally defensive: it captures upside from metal production/prices without bearing mine operating costs or most capex. That asset-light stance preserves margins, reduces operational execution risk, and allows scalable capital deployment that remains relevant over multi-year horizons.
Negative Factors
Earnings & FCF Volatility
TFPM’s profitability and free cash flow have shown material year-to-year swings driven by production mix and metal prices. Even after a strong 2025, FCF covered only ~29% of net income, indicating earnings do not consistently convert to free cash, which complicates durable dividend planning and capital allocation over cycles.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light Business Model
Triple Flag’s royalty/streaming model is structurally defensive: it captures upside from metal production/prices without bearing mine operating costs or most capex. That asset-light stance preserves margins, reduces operational execution risk, and allows scalable capital deployment that remains relevant over multi-year horizons.
Read all positive factors
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$10.31B
Dividend Yield0.66%
Average Volume (3M)223.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.7
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth43.27%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees13
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.46
Shares Outstanding206,570,620
10 Day Avg. Volume163,418
30 Day Avg. Volume223,382
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)3.31
Price to Sales (P/S)17.10
P/FCF Ratio72.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$61.46Price Target Upside23.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$501.58M
Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States....
How the Company Makes Money
TFPM makes money primarily through precious-metals royalties and streaming agreements tied to mining projects. Under a royalty agreement, TFPM typically receives a contractually defined share of revenue or metal produced from a mine (often calcula...
Triple Flag Precious Metals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a strong, record 2025 with material cash flow improvement (+45% cash flow per share), a pristine balance sheet (debt-free, ~$1B liquidity), active and strategic capital deployment (> $350M), and a clear multi-asset pathway to materially higher GEOs by 2030 (~45% growth from 2026 midpoint). Near-term headwinds include a 2026 production step-down (midpoint ~11.5% below 2025) driven largely by the Cerro Lindo stream adjustment, an outstanding litigation matter (ATO) that was excluded from guidance, and the fact that much of the upside is medium-to-long-term and reliant on operator execution and milestone timing.Positive Updates
Record Production in 2025
Triple Flag achieved record production of 113,000 GEOs in 2025, the ninth consecutive year-over-year increase, finishing Q4 in the upper half of guidance.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Guidance Step-Down Vs. 2025
2026 guidance of 95,000–105,000 GEOs implies a short-term decline versus 2025’s 113,000 GEOs; using the midpoints (100,000 vs. 113,000) implies an approximate ~11.5% reduction in annual GEOs versus 2025.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production in 2025
Triple Flag achieved record production of 113,000 GEOs in 2025, the ninth consecutive year-over-year increase, finishing Q4 in the upper half of guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Triple Flag's 2026 guidance calls for 95,000–105,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs), assumes a conservative gold:silver price ratio of $72 for the year (with a lower ratio in H1), and reflects Northparkes mine sequencing plus a planned Cerro Lindo stream‑rate step‑down expected in Q2; depletion is guided at $65–$75 million, G&A at $30–$32 million, and the Australian cash tax rate on royalties at ~25%. Management excluded any ATO contribution from both 2026 guidance and the 2030 outlook (so ATO would be upside), and reiterated a 2030 production target of 140,000–150,000 GEOs (≈45% midpoint‑to‑midpoint growth from 2026). For context, 2025 was a record year with 113,000 GEOs and operating cash flow per share of $1.54 (up 45% YoY), Q4 average gold of $4,135/oz (spot near $5,000/oz), and the company exited 2025 debt‑free with >$70 million cash and ~ $1 billion of available credit (total liquidity >$1B).Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
93
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 395.51M | 268.99M | 204.02M | 151.88M | 150.42M |
| Gross Profit | 267.19M | 230.76M | 167.18M | 87.00M | 83.25M |
| EBITDA | 315.59M | 68.75M | 109.19M | 118.17M | 123.48M |
| Net Income | 244.21M | -23.08M | 36.28M | 55.09M | 45.53M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.11B | 1.77B | 1.89B | 1.34B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 122.02M | 39.26M | 23.63M | 76.47M | 54.34M |
| Total Debt | 2.54M | 1.69M | 59.15M | 1.92M | 1.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 68.14M | 34.26M | 83.72M | 18.55M | 8.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.04B | 1.74B | 1.81B | 1.32B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 92.75M | 156.01M | -36.76M | 66.10M | 68.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 315.20M | 213.50M | 154.14M | 118.38M | 120.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.79M | -81.96M | -212.98M | -48.92M | -48.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -57.80M | -112.60M | 5.12M | -38.75M | -51.84M |
Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Positive
49.92
Price Trends
49.66
Positive
48.05
Positive
42.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.81
Negative
55.19
Neutral
94.04
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.89, above the 50-day MA of 49.66, and above the 200-day MA of 42.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$10.31B | 27.69 | 12.71% | 0.66% | 43.27% | ― | |
66 Neutral | C$119.57M | 12.43 | 33.85% | ― | 112.93% | ― | |
65 Neutral | C$503.66M | 42.28 | 8.03% | 0.97% | 11.95% | -44.15% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | C$40.11M | -689.00 | -88.61% | ― | -47.93% | -538.46% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals
49.92
24.02
92.76%
TSE:MTA
Metalla Royalty & Streaming
9.49
5.77
155.11%
TSE:VOXR
Vox Royalty
7.31
3.46
89.87%
TSE:EMPR
Empress Royalty
0.95
0.50
112.36%
TSE:STRR
Star Royalties
0.51
0.28
117.02%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag Posts Record 2025 Earnings and Cash Flow, Expands Growth Pipeline
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a strong 2025, with revenue climbing to $388.7 million from $269 million a year earlier and gold equivalent ounces essentially flat at 113,237, while net earnings swung to $240 million from a loss in 2024. Oper...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Triple Flag Announces Q1 2026 Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals’ board has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0575 per common share, payable on March 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026. The dividend underscores the company’s ongoing capital-return stra...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Triple Flag Funds E44 Gold Deposit to Expand Northparkes Streaming Growth
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals has agreed to provide US$84.3 million in development funding in late 2026 to Evolution Mining for the new gold-dominant E44 open pit deposit at the Northparkes operation in Australia. In return, Triple Flag will receive...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag Posts Ninth Straight Year of Record GEOs and Beats 2025 Guidance
Positive
Jan 14, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$118.9 million from sales of 28,757 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) and full-year 2025 record revenue of US$388.7 million on 113,237 GEOs, marking its ninth consecutive yea...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.