tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSE:TFPM)
:TFPM
Advertisement

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
60 Followers

Top Page

TSE:TFPM

Triple Flag Precious Metals

(TSX:TFPM)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$41.00
▲(9.95% Upside)
Triple Flag Precious Metals exhibits strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, reflected in a robust earnings call. However, technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, and the valuation appears high, which tempers the overall score.
Positive Factors
Commodity Prices
Gold and silver prices have continued to climb, benefiting Triple Flag's shares, which have gained significantly.
Financial Performance
The strength in gold and silver prices has led to positive revisions for estimates on revenue, earnings, and cash flow for Triple Flag.
Portfolio Quality
Triple Flag has a good quality, long-life portfolio with royalties and streams on assets that are generally seen as low-cost and in stable jurisdictions.
Negative Factors
Liquidity and Asset Challenges
Liquidity of shares remains somewhat of an overhang, and the ramp-up of select portfolio assets has been challenging.
Production Growth
Near-term production growth is seen as more limited for Triple Flag.
Stock Valuation
Shares of Triple Flag are trading at a premium on NAV relative to other mid-cap royalty peers, which may limit their attractiveness compared to competitors.

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTriple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure primarily to gold and silver. It has 78 assets, including 9 streams and 69 royalties. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP.
How the Company Makes MoneyTriple Flag Precious Metals makes money through streaming and royalty agreements. In a streaming agreement, TFPM provides mining companies with capital in return for the right to purchase a portion of their precious metals production at a fixed, lower-than-market price. This allows TFPM to benefit from the sale of these metals at market rates, capturing the difference as profit. In royalty agreements, TFPM earns a percentage of the revenue or profit generated from the production of a mine, which creates a passive income stream for the company. These agreements are often long-term, providing TFPM with sustained revenue over the life of the mine. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the performance of the mines in which it holds interests, as well as fluctuations in global precious metal prices.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted several positive developments including record-breaking financial performance, successful acquisitions, and strong financial health. However, challenges with Steppe Gold and potential production declines in future years were also noted. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Quarter
Triple Flag achieved a record quarter in Q2 2025 with sales nearly reaching 29,000 GEOs, resulting in record adjusted EBITDA of $76 million and record operating cash flow of USD 0.38 per share.
Successful Acquisitions
Maintained a solid pace of accretive acquisitions, including the Tres Quebradas lithium mine, Arcata and Azuca silver mines, and a 1.5% royalty on the Johnson Camp copper mine, all expected to deliver revenue in the second half of 2025.
Increase in Dividend
Announced a fourth consecutive annual increase of the dividend, up 5% to USD 0.23 on an annualized basis.
Strong Financial Position
Exited the quarter with zero debt and expected to be in a net cash position by the end of Q3 2025, with total liquidity available of nearly $1 billion.
Exploration Success at Beta Hunt
Westgold's Beta Hunt mine declared a maiden resource for the Fletcher zone of 2.3 million ounces, nearly doubling the total resource base with significant exploration potential.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Steppe Gold
Steppe Gold owes Triple Flag around USD 8 million and there is an ongoing legal dispute regarding the delivery halt of the stream.
Potential Production Decline in 2026
Expected decline in production mainly due to depletion of high-grade stockpiles at Northparkes and a step down in stream rate at Cerro Lindo.
Company Guidance
In the conference call, Triple Flag Precious Metals provided several key metrics and guidance highlights for the remainder of 2025. The company achieved record sales of nearly 29,000 Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) in Q2, contributing to an adjusted EBITDA of $76 million and a record operating cash flow of $0.38 per share. Triple Flag maintains strong margins exceeding 90%, and it remains on track to meet its 2025 sales guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 ounces. The company also announced a 5% increase in its annual dividend to $0.23 per share. Triple Flag ended the quarter with no debt and total liquidity of nearly $1 billion. The company's portfolio, predominantly located in Australia and the Americas, generated 100% of its revenue from precious metals, with about two-thirds from gold. Triple Flag's strategic acquisitions and organic growth efforts, including a 1% NSR royalty on the Arthur Gold project in Nevada and the exploration success at Beta Hunt in Australia, underpin its robust future growth outlook.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Triple Flag Precious Metals demonstrates a healthy financial position with impressive revenue growth and strong cash flow generation. The balance sheet is highly stable due to minimal leverage and a strong equity base. However, profitability metrics such as net profit margin and ROE are areas for improvement.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Triple Flag Precious Metals has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a notable increase from $151.9M in 2022 to $293.7M TTM. Gross profit margin remains robust at 58.5% TTM, although net profit margin is low at 1.7% due to modest net income. EBITDA margin is healthy at 54.7%, indicating effective cost management despite volatile EBIT performance.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company exhibits a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.001, reflecting minimal leverage. ROE is weak at 0.3% TTM, pointing to limited returns on equity investments. The equity ratio stands at a solid 98.2%, underscoring financial stability and low risk.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow is strong at $240.5M TTM, indicating robust cash generation. Free cash flow improved significantly from -$36.8M in 2023 to $117.3M TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 47.98, indicating efficient cash conversion, though free cash flow growth has been inconsistent over the years.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue293.71M268.99M204.02M151.88M150.42M112.59M
Gross Profit193.38M230.76M167.18M87.00M83.25M50.10M
EBITDA180.40M68.75M109.19M118.17M123.48M96.16M
Net Income5.01M-23.08M36.28M55.09M45.53M55.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.79B1.77B1.89B1.34B1.30B1.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments22.45M39.26M23.63M76.47M54.34M38.50M
Total Debt1.61M1.69M59.15M1.92M1.13M276.38M
Total Liabilities32.36M34.26M83.72M18.55M8.79M281.98M
Stockholders Equity1.76B1.74B1.81B1.32B1.29B1.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow120.92M156.01M-36.76M66.10M68.75M-645.30M
Operating Cash Flow240.48M213.50M154.14M118.38M120.02M84.38M
Investing Cash Flow-130.82M-81.96M-212.98M-48.92M-48.15M-651.65M
Financing Cash Flow-120.17M-112.60M5.12M-38.75M-51.84M577.13M

Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price37.29
Price Trends
50DMA
33.94
Positive
100DMA
32.24
Positive
200DMA
28.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.04
Negative
RSI
61.99
Neutral
STOCH
67.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.37, above the 50-day MA of 33.94, and above the 200-day MA of 28.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
C$7.70B31.4710.04%0.84%50.16%
62
Neutral
$10.27B6.370.76%2.91%3.10%-36.03%
$502.67M-1.87%
$174.34M-4.19%1.43%
$882.82M-9999.00%
$3.58B30.7316.17%
$78.40M19.0420.32%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals
37.29
16.71
81.20%
MTA
Metalla Royalty & Streaming
5.42
2.51
86.25%
VOXR
Vox Royalty
3.43
0.91
36.11%
SLSR
Solaris Resources
5.22
3.29
170.47%
GMINF
G Mining Ventures
15.75
9.93
170.62%
EMPYF
Empress Royalty
0.57
0.28
96.55%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events

Dividends
Triple Flag Precious Metals Boosts Quarterly Dividend by 5%
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to US$0.0575 per common share, to be paid on September 15, 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO in 2021, reflecting the company’s consistent financial growth and commitment to returning value to shareholders. The increase in dividends underscores Triple Flag’s robust performance in the precious metals market, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to investors and strengthening its position within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Triple Flag Precious Metals Raises Quarterly Dividend by 5%
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to US$0.0575 per common share, to be paid on September 15, 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO in May 2021, reflecting the company’s stable financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag Reports Record Cash Flow and Increases Dividend Amid Strategic Acquisitions
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported record operating cash flow per share for Q2 2025 and announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO. The company completed significant acquisitions, including a 1.0% NSR royalty on the Arthur gold project and a 1.5% GR royalty on the Johnson Camp Mine, enhancing its growth potential and strengthening its market position. These developments are expected to positively impact Triple Flag’s operations, with several projects anticipated to commence production in the latter half of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Triple Flag Completes Acquisition of Orogen Royalties
Positive
Jul 9, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals has completed the acquisition of Orogen Royalties, including a 1.0% net smelter returns royalty on the Arthur Gold Project in Nevada, enhancing its portfolio with a high-quality gold asset. The acquisition, valued at C$171.5 million in cash and 5,633,629 Triple Flag shares, positions Triple Flag for long-term growth and exploration potential, while its C$10 million investment in Orogen Spinco provides exposure to early-stage royalties and collaboration with a proven management team.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag Reports Record Q2 2025 Revenue and Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Jul 9, 2025

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported record revenue of $94.1 million for Q2 2025, driven by strong performance from Northparkes and sales of 28,682 gold equivalent ounces. The company is on track to meet its 2025 guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 GEOs and anticipates closing a transaction with Orogen Royalties, acquiring a 1.0% NSR royalty on AngloGold Ashanti’s Arthur gold project in Nevada, which is expected to enhance long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 12, 2025