Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSE:TFPM)
TSX:TFPM
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Triple Flag Precious Metals
(TSX:TFPM)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$51.00
▲(2.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high profitability and minimal leverage) and a very positive earnings call with reiterated guidance and visible growth catalysts. Offsetting factors are mixed technical momentum (negative MACD and below key short/mid-term moving averages) and only moderate valuation support with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Pristine balance sheet & liquidity
Very low leverage and >$1bn available liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year development investments, sustain the progressive dividend, and absorb operational delays. This preserves optionality to pursue accretive streams/royalties without balance-sheet strain.
Negative Factors
Counterparty & timing risk
TFPM’s cash flows rely on third-party operators for permitting, construction and production. Multi-year approvals and execution timelines create persistent delivery uncertainty, which can delay royalty/stream receipts and reduce predictability of medium-term growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Pristine balance sheet & liquidity
Very low leverage and >$1bn available liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year development investments, sustain the progressive dividend, and absorb operational delays. This preserves optionality to pursue accretive streams/royalties without balance-sheet strain.
Read all positive factors
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.01B
Dividend Yield0.66%
Average Volume (3M)223.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue Growth53.07%
EPS Growth3712.75%
CountryCA
Employees13
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.52
Shares Outstanding206,603,910
10 Day Avg. Volume163,418
30 Day Avg. Volume223,382
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)3.31
Price to Sales (P/S)17.10
P/FCF Ratio72.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$58.66Price Target Upside17.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$531.55M
Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States....
How the Company Makes Money
TFPM makes money primarily through precious-metals streaming and royalty agreements tied to third-party mines.
1) Streaming revenue model
- Upfront investment: TFPM pays an upfront deposit or purchase price to a mine operator/developer in exchang...
Triple Flag Precious Metals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record quarterly metrics (GEOs, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow per share), a pristine balance sheet with >$1 billion liquidity, and accretive transactions (including Gunnison and North Parks developments) that support both near-term cash generation and long-term growth. The main risks noted are timing and approval uncertainty for several development projects, some contractual complexity around the Gunnison stream option, and underutilization of the buyback program. Overall, the substantive positive results and clear growth pipeline materially outweigh these limited execution and timing risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Performance
Q1 2026 marked the strongest quarter in company history with over 30,000 GEOs, $129 million of adjusted EBITDA, and operating cash flow per share of $0.55. Adjusted EBITDA was up 82% year-over-year and operating cash flow per share grew 67% year-over-year — all quarterly records.
Negative Updates
Pending Approvals and Timing Uncertainty
Several key value drivers remain dependent on third-party decisions and multi-year execution: Hope Bay construction decision is expected but not yet final, North Parks mill expansion is under study (timeline ~1 year), and E44 deliveries do not begin until 2030 — creating timing risk for near-term production upside.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Performance
Q1 2026 marked the strongest quarter in company history with over 30,000 GEOs, $129 million of adjusted EBITDA, and operating cash flow per share of $0.55. Adjusted EBITDA was up 82% year-over-year and operating cash flow per share grew 67% year-over-year — all quarterly records.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Triple Flag said it remains on track to deliver 2026 guidance and its 2030 outlook of 140–150 thousand GEOs, citing a record Q1 that included over 30,000 GEOs, $129 million of adjusted EBITDA (adjusted EBITDA up 82% YoY), operating cash flow per share of $0.55 (cash flow per share up 67% YoY), and exiting the quarter with $144 million of cash, no debt and over $1 billion of available liquidity after deploying over $100 million in Q1 (including a $23 million purchase of a 3% gross revenue royalty on Gunnison); asset-level drivers cited in support of guidance include Hope Bay’s expected 400–425 koz/year (6,000 tpd) with a construction decision imminent, Gunnison’s updated PEA supporting ~125 million lb Cu/year (~3.2 billion lb over a 21‑year LOM), North Parks’ E44 guaranteed deliveries over seven years from 2030 and a potential mill expansion to ≥10 Mtpa unlocking 575 million tonnes of M&I resources, Beta Hunt mill expansion to 2.6 Mtpa (potential to 4 Mtpa), Fosterville’s planned 65% throughput increase, Kone oxide circuit on track for production later this year, Kemess PEA targeting production by 2031 (current mine plan covers 47% of resource tonnes), and Arthur progressing toward permitting in 2027—all supported by a pristine balance sheet, a progressively growing (~5% mid-year) dividend policy and opportunistic NCIB buybacks.Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
94
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 452.87M | 395.51M | 268.99M | 204.02M | 151.88M | 150.42M |
| Gross Profit | 336.96M | 267.19M | 230.76M | 167.18M | 87.00M | 83.25M |
| EBITDA | 364.06M | 315.59M | 68.75M | 109.19M | 118.17M | 123.48M |
| Net Income | 310.68M | 244.21M | -23.08M | 36.28M | 55.09M | 45.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.22B | 2.11B | 1.77B | 1.89B | 1.34B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 209.85M | 122.02M | 39.26M | 23.63M | 76.47M | 54.34M |
| Total Debt | 1.39M | 2.54M | 1.69M | 59.15M | 1.92M | 1.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 69.27M | 68.14M | 34.26M | 83.72M | 18.55M | 8.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.15B | 2.04B | 1.74B | 1.81B | 1.32B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 174.31M | 92.75M | 156.01M | -36.76M | 66.10M | 68.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 358.48M | 315.20M | 213.50M | 154.14M | 118.38M | 120.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -181.13M | -221.79M | -81.96M | -212.98M | -48.92M | -48.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.90M | -57.80M | -112.60M | 5.12M | -38.75M | -51.84M |
Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Negative
49.89
Price Trends
46.82
Negative
48.51
Negative
44.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.68
Positive
42.34
Neutral
14.31
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.04, above the 50-day MA of 46.82, and above the 200-day MA of 44.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TFPM.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$9.01B | 15.59 | 15.57% | 0.66% | 53.07% | 3712.75% | |
69 Neutral | C$573.43M | 3.68 | 32.00% | 0.97% | 173.91% | ― | |
66 Neutral | C$106.28M | 5.39 | 33.85% | ― | 117.33% | 597.46% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | C$39.26M | -0.59 | -38.02% | ― | -41.27% | 62.12% | |
49 Neutral | C$863.41M | 1,910.26 | -1.29% | ― | 104.09% | 24.26% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals
43.61
14.26
48.58%
TSE:MTA
Metalla Royalty & Streaming
9.24
5.18
127.59%
TSE:VOXR
Vox Royalty
8.34
3.70
79.74%
TSE:EMPR
Empress Royalty
0.84
0.31
58.49%
TSE:STRR
Star Royalties
0.52
0.34
181.08%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag posts record Q1 2026 revenue and metal sales, bolstering growth outlook
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a record start to 2026, posting first-quarter revenue of US$147.0 million on record metal sales of 30,166 gold equivalent ounces, mainly driven by gold and silver streams. Management said the performance keeps ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag Posts Record 2025 Earnings and Cash Flow, Expands Growth Pipeline
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a strong 2025, with revenue climbing to $388.7 million from $269 million a year earlier and gold equivalent ounces essentially flat at 113,237, while net earnings swung to $240 million from a loss in 2024. Oper...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Triple Flag Announces Q1 2026 Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals’ board has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0575 per common share, payable on March 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026. The dividend underscores the company’s ongoing capital-return stra...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Triple Flag Funds E44 Gold Deposit to Expand Northparkes Streaming Growth
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals has agreed to provide US$84.3 million in development funding in late 2026 to Evolution Mining for the new gold-dominant E44 open pit deposit at the Northparkes operation in Australia. In return, Triple Flag will receive...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.