Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSE:TFPM)
TSX:TFPM
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Triple Flag Precious Metals
(TSX:TFPM)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$52.00
▲(4.23% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
Overall score reflects strong financial quality led by an ultra-low-debt balance sheet and high 2025 profitability/cash generation, supported by constructive long-term messaging from the earnings call. The score is tempered by year-to-year earnings/FCF volatility, only modest current technical momentum, and a comparatively high P/E with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet and strong liquidity
TFPM's near-zero leverage and >$1B total liquidity provide durable financial flexibility. This allows the company to fund accretive streams/royalties, sustain dividends or buybacks, and absorb commodity or counterparty shocks without forcing distressed asset sales, supporting multi‑year strategy execution.
Negative Factors
Earnings and free cash flow volatility
TFPM's earnings and FCF have been uneven historically, with losses in 2024 and FCF coverage of just ~29% of 2025 net income. Such volatility reduces predictability of distributable cash, complicates multi‑year planning, and can limit sustainable shareholder returns or pace of capital deployment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet and strong liquidity
TFPM's near-zero leverage and >$1B total liquidity provide durable financial flexibility. This allows the company to fund accretive streams/royalties, sustain dividends or buybacks, and absorb commodity or counterparty shocks without forcing distressed asset sales, supporting multi‑year strategy execution.
Read all positive factors
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.52B
Dividend Yield0.66%
Average Volume (3M)223.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.7
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth47.17%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees13
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding206,603,910
10 Day Avg. Volume163,418
30 Day Avg. Volume223,382
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)3.31
Price to Sales (P/S)17.10
P/FCF Ratio72.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$64.41Price Target Upside29.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States....
How the Company Makes Money
TFPM makes money primarily through precious-metals streaming and royalty agreements tied to third-party mines.
1) Streaming revenue model
- Upfront investment: TFPM pays an upfront deposit or purchase price to a mine operator/developer in exchang...
Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
93
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 395.51M | 268.99M | 204.02M | 151.88M | 150.42M |
| Gross Profit | 267.19M | 230.76M | 167.18M | 87.00M | 83.25M |
| EBITDA | 315.59M | 68.75M | 109.19M | 118.17M | 123.48M |
| Net Income | 244.21M | -23.08M | 36.28M | 55.09M | 45.53M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.11B | 1.77B | 1.89B | 1.34B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 122.02M | 39.26M | 23.63M | 76.47M | 54.34M |
| Total Debt | 2.54M | 1.69M | 59.15M | 1.92M | 1.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 68.14M | 34.26M | 83.72M | 18.55M | 8.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.04B | 1.74B | 1.81B | 1.32B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 92.75M | 156.01M | -36.76M | 66.10M | 68.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 315.20M | 213.50M | 154.14M | 118.38M | 120.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.79M | -81.96M | -212.98M | -48.92M | -48.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -57.80M | -112.60M | 5.12M | -38.75M | -51.84M |
Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Positive
49.89
Price Trends
49.44
Positive
48.71
Positive
43.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
55.17
Neutral
33.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.44, above the 50-day MA of 49.44, and above the 200-day MA of 43.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$9.52B | 27.69 | 12.71% | 0.66% | 47.17% | ― | |
66 Neutral | C$121.46M | 12.43 | 33.85% | ― | 117.33% | 597.46% | |
65 Neutral | C$506.42M | 42.28 | 8.03% | 0.97% | 53.23% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | C$40.89M | -2.06 | -38.02% | ― | -41.27% | 62.12% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals
45.78
18.00
64.78%
TSE:MTA
Metalla Royalty & Streaming
9.33
5.14
122.67%
TSE:VOXR
Vox Royalty
7.42
2.98
67.00%
TSE:EMPR
Empress Royalty
0.95
0.48
104.30%
TSE:STRR
Star Royalties
0.52
0.32
153.66%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag posts record Q1 2026 revenue and metal sales, bolstering growth outlook
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a record start to 2026, posting first-quarter revenue of US$147.0 million on record metal sales of 30,166 gold equivalent ounces, mainly driven by gold and silver streams. Management said the performance keeps ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Triple Flag Posts Record 2025 Earnings and Cash Flow, Expands Growth Pipeline
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a strong 2025, with revenue climbing to $388.7 million from $269 million a year earlier and gold equivalent ounces essentially flat at 113,237, while net earnings swung to $240 million from a loss in 2024. Oper...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Triple Flag Announces Q1 2026 Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals’ board has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0575 per common share, payable on March 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026. The dividend underscores the company’s ongoing capital-return stra...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Triple Flag Funds E44 Gold Deposit to Expand Northparkes Streaming Growth
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
Triple Flag Precious Metals has agreed to provide US$84.3 million in development funding in late 2026 to Evolution Mining for the new gold-dominant E44 open pit deposit at the Northparkes operation in Australia. In return, Triple Flag will receive...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.