Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$7.65B
• Dividend Yield: 0.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 168.52K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 50.16%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 206,495,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 137,735
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 168,523
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$39.06
• Price Target Upside: 5.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$41.00 ▲(10.60% Upside)

Triple Flag Precious Metals exhibits strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, reflected in a robust earnings call. However, technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, and the valuation appears high, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Commodity Prices

Gold and silver prices have continued to climb, benefiting Triple Flag's shares, which have gained significantly.

Financial Performance

The strength in gold and silver prices has led to positive revisions for estimates on revenue, earnings, and cash flow for Triple Flag.

Portfolio Quality

Triple Flag has a good quality, long-life portfolio with royalties and streams on assets that are generally seen as low-cost and in stable jurisdictions.

Negative Factors

Liquidity Concerns

Liquidity of shares remains somewhat of an overhang, and the ramp-up of select portfolio assets has been challenging.

Production Outlook

Near-term production estimates for Triple Flag showcase a decrease, affecting short-term growth expectations.

Stock Valuation

Shares of Triple Flag are trading at a premium on NAV relative to other mid-cap royalty peers, which may limit their attractiveness compared to competitors.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure primarily to gold and silver. It has 78 assets, including 9 streams and 69 royalties. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP.

How the Company Makes Money

Triple Flag Precious Metals makes money through streaming and royalty agreements. In a streaming agreement, TFPM provides mining companies with capital in return for the right to purchase a portion of their precious metals production at a fixed, lower-than-market price. This allows TFPM to benefit from the sale of these metals at market rates, capturing the difference as profit. In royalty agreements, TFPM earns a percentage of the revenue or profit generated from the production of a mine, which creates a passive income stream for the company. These agreements are often long-term, providing TFPM with sustained revenue over the life of the mine. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the performance of the mines in which it holds interests, as well as fluctuations in global precious metal prices.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Triple Flag Precious Metals shows strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, with a stable balance sheet due to minimal leverage. However, net profit margin and ROE are areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Triple Flag Precious Metals has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a notable increase from $151.9M in 2022 to $293.7M TTM. Gross profit margin remains robust at 58.5% TTM, although net profit margin is low at 1.7% due to modest net income. EBITDA margin is healthy at 54.7%, indicating effective cost management despite volatile EBIT performance.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.001, reflecting minimal leverage. ROE is weak at 0.3% TTM, pointing to limited returns on equity investments. The equity ratio stands at a solid 98.2%, underscoring financial stability and low risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong at $240.5M TTM, indicating robust cash generation. Free cash flow improved significantly from -$36.8M in 2023 to $117.3M TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 47.98, indicating efficient cash conversion, though free cash flow growth has been inconsistent over the years.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	268.99M	204.02M	151.88M	150.42M	112.59M
Gross Profit	230.76M	167.18M	87.00M	83.25M	50.10M
EBITDA	68.75M	109.19M	118.17M	123.48M	96.16M
Net Income	-23.08M	36.28M	55.09M	45.53M	55.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.77B	1.89B	1.34B	1.30B	1.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.26M	23.63M	76.47M	54.34M	38.50M
Total Debt	1.69M	59.15M	1.92M	1.13M	276.38M
Total Liabilities	34.26M	83.72M	18.55M	8.79M	281.98M
Stockholders Equity	1.74B	1.81B	1.32B	1.29B	1.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	156.01M	-36.76M	66.10M	68.75M	-645.30M
Operating Cash Flow	213.50M	154.14M	118.38M	120.02M	84.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-81.96M	-212.98M	-48.92M	-48.15M	-651.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-112.60M	5.12M	-38.75M	-51.84M	577.13M

Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 37.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.01, above the 50-day MA of 32.89, and above the 200-day MA of 27.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TFPM	71 Outperform	C$7.65B	30.98	10.04%	0.83%	50.16%	―
Sector *	56 Neutral	£2.50B	6.13	-0.23%	47.33%	9.88%	5.42%
MTA	―	$400.95M	―	-1.77%	―	―	―
VOXR	―	$175.00M	―	-4.04%	1.44%	―	―
SLSR	―	$878.14M	―	-9999.00%	―	―	―
GMINF	―	$2.96B	52.60	8.90%	―	―	―
EMPYF	―	$76.56M	36.77	11.71%	―	―	―

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events

Triple Flag Precious Metals Boosts Quarterly Dividend by 5%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to US$0.0575 per common share, to be paid on September 15, 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO in 2021, reflecting the company’s consistent financial growth and commitment to returning value to shareholders. The increase in dividends underscores Triple Flag’s robust performance in the precious metals market, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to investors and strengthening its position within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Raises Quarterly Dividend by 5%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to US$0.0575 per common share, to be paid on September 15, 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO in May 2021, reflecting the company’s stable financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Reports Record Cash Flow and Increases Dividend Amid Strategic Acquisitions

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported record operating cash flow per share for Q2 2025 and announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, marking the fourth consecutive annual increase since its IPO. The company completed significant acquisitions, including a 1.0% NSR royalty on the Arthur gold project and a 1.5% GR royalty on the Johnson Camp Mine, enhancing its growth potential and strengthening its market position. These developments are expected to positively impact Triple Flag’s operations, with several projects anticipated to commence production in the latter half of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Completes Acquisition of Orogen Royalties

Triple Flag Precious Metals has completed the acquisition of Orogen Royalties, including a 1.0% net smelter returns royalty on the Arthur Gold Project in Nevada, enhancing its portfolio with a high-quality gold asset. The acquisition, valued at C$171.5 million in cash and 5,633,629 Triple Flag shares, positions Triple Flag for long-term growth and exploration potential, while its C$10 million investment in Orogen Spinco provides exposure to early-stage royalties and collaboration with a proven management team.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Reports Record Q2 2025 Revenue and Strategic Acquisition

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported record revenue of $94.1 million for Q2 2025, driven by strong performance from Northparkes and sales of 28,682 gold equivalent ounces. The company is on track to meet its 2025 guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 GEOs and anticipates closing a transaction with Orogen Royalties, acquiring a 1.0% NSR royalty on AngloGold Ashanti’s Arthur gold project in Nevada, which is expected to enhance long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.