Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$10.90B
• Dividend Yield: 0.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 223.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: 43.27%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 206,570,620
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 163,418
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 223,382
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 17.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 72.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$58.73
• Price Target Upside: 9.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.44
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$476.14M

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: C$57.00 ▲(6.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

Overall score reflects strong financial quality led by an ultra-low-debt balance sheet and high 2025 profitability/cash generation, supported by constructive long-term messaging from the earnings call. The score is tempered by year-to-year earnings/FCF volatility, only modest current technical momentum, and a comparatively high P/E with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and large available liquidity (> $70M cash plus ~ $1B credit) provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces solvency risk, supports opportunistic streaming/royalty investments, buybacks, and shields capital deployment plans from short-term commodity swings or project delays.

Proven production growth trajectory

A multi-year track record of rising GEOs indicates expanding royalty and stream volumes, underpinning longer-term revenue visibility. Consistent production growth across assets enhances predictability of receipts and supports scale economies in portfolio sourcing and reinvestment strategies.

High 2025 profitability and cash generation

Substantially higher margins and rising operating cash flow in 2025 (operating cash flow 315.2M vs. 213.5M in 2024) demonstrate the business model's ability to convert higher metal prices and volumes into cash. Strong cash generation funds reinvestment, deployments and shareholder returns long-term.

Negative Factors

Earnings and free cash flow volatility

Historic swings (negative net income in 2024; uneven FCF including negative years) indicate earnings are sensitive to metal prices, timing of deliveries and one-off items. Volatility complicates planning, reduces predictability of dividends/repurchases and raises execution risk for multi-year growth investments.

2026 production step-down / Cerro Lindo stream reduction

A contractual stream step-down materially reduces near-term delivered ounces and cash receipts, contributing to a guided GEO decline for 2026. This highlights structural exposure when streaming terms change and the need to replace lost volume with new transactions to sustain medium-term growth.

ATO litigation excluded from guidance

Ongoing tax/litigation uncertainty creates a durable downside risk to future cashflows and after-tax returns if outcomes are unfavorable. Management’s exclusion of ATO from guidance removes a potential upside but also leaves unresolved legal exposure that could materially affect long-term cash conversion and capital allocation.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure primarily to gold and silver. It has 78 assets, including 9 streams and 69 royalties. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP.

How the Company Makes Money

Triple Flag Precious Metals generates revenue primarily through its streaming and royalty agreements with mining companies. In a streaming agreement, TFPM provides upfront capital to a mining company in exchange for the right to purchase a percentage of the mine's future production at a predetermined price, typically below market value. The company earns revenue as the mines produce and deliver the precious metals. Additionally, through royalty agreements, TFPM receives a percentage of the revenue generated from the sale of metals produced by the mines, which creates a steady income stream with minimal operational risk. Key revenue streams for TFPM include payments from active mines in their portfolio, along with any potential new streams or royalties established through partnerships or acquisitions in the mining sector. Collaborations with established mining companies and strategic investments in high-potential mining projects further contribute to TFPM's earnings potential.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Very strong 2025 rebound with high profitability (gross ~67.6%, net ~61.7%) and rising operating cash flow. Balance sheet is exceptionally conservative with near-zero leverage. Main risk is volatility (losses in 2024) and uneven free cash flow history, with 2025 FCF covering only ~29% of net income.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly from 2020 to 2025, including a sharp step-up in 2025 (+14.97% YoY). Profitability is a major strength in 2025, with very high gross and net margins (gross margin ~67.6%, net margin ~61.7%) and a strong EBIT margin (~59.3%). However, results have been volatile: 2024 posted negative net income and negative EBIT margin, indicating meaningful earnings sensitivity year-to-year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is exceptionally conservative with minimal leverage in recent years (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.0013; 2024 ~0.0010), providing strong financial flexibility and low solvency risk. Equity and assets have also grown versus earlier years. The main weakness is variability in shareholder returns (ROE negative in 2024, improving to ~12.0% in 2025), reflecting earnings volatility more than balance-sheet strain.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is solid and rising into 2025 (operating cash flow 315.2M in 2025 vs. 213.5M in 2024), and free cash flow improved in 2025 (92.8M; +35.6% YoY). Cash generation generally supports the business, but free cash flow has been uneven over time (negative in 2023 and sharply negative in 2020). In 2025, free cash flow covers only about 29% of net income, suggesting profits are not fully translating into free cash after investments and other cash uses.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	395.51M	268.99M	204.02M	151.88M	150.42M
Gross Profit	267.19M	230.76M	167.18M	87.00M	83.25M
EBITDA	315.59M	68.75M	109.19M	118.17M	123.48M
Net Income	244.21M	-23.08M	36.28M	55.09M	45.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.11B	1.77B	1.89B	1.34B	1.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	122.02M	39.26M	23.63M	76.47M	54.34M
Total Debt	2.54M	1.69M	59.15M	1.92M	1.13M
Total Liabilities	68.14M	34.26M	83.72M	18.55M	8.79M
Stockholders Equity	2.04B	1.74B	1.81B	1.32B	1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	92.75M	156.01M	-36.76M	66.10M	68.75M
Operating Cash Flow	315.20M	213.50M	154.14M	118.38M	120.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-221.79M	-81.96M	-212.98M	-48.92M	-48.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-57.80M	-112.60M	5.12M	-38.75M	-51.84M

Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 53.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.87, above the 50-day MA of 49.90, and above the 200-day MA of 40.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TFPM	78 Outperform	C$10.90B	27.69	11.27%	0.66%	43.27%	―
EMPR	72 Outperform	C$142.97M	12.43	17.02%	―	112.93%	―
VOXR	67 Neutral	C$560.49M	338.18	-2.13%	0.97%	11.95%	-44.15%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
STRR	52 Neutral	C$33.42M	-689.00	-64.35%	―	-47.93%	-538.46%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events

Triple Flag Posts Record 2025 Earnings and Cash Flow, Expands Growth Pipeline

Triple Flag Precious Metals reported a strong 2025, with revenue climbing to $388.7 million from $269 million a year earlier and gold equivalent ounces essentially flat at 113,237, while net earnings swung to $240 million from a loss in 2024. Operating cash flow per share rose to $1.54 and net earnings per share reached $1.18, both record levels, underpinning a quarterly dividend of $0.0575 per share and highlighting robust cash generation.

The company underscored a debt-free balance sheet with more than $1 billion in available liquidity and industry-leading leverage to gold and silver prices, supporting over $350 million of capital deployed in 2025 into value-accretive deals. Strategic growth is being driven by the newly unlocked high-grade E44 gold deposit at Northparkes via an $84.3 million funding agreement with Evolution Mining, alongside a pipeline of advancing projects such as Arcata, Koné and Eskay Creek, as Triple Flag targets 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs by 2030 and further growth beyond.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Announces Q1 2026 Cash Dividend to Shareholders

Triple Flag Precious Metals’ board has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0575 per common share, payable on March 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 2, 2026. The dividend underscores the company’s ongoing capital-return strategy and provides income to investors, reflecting confidence in cash flow generation from its diversified portfolio of streaming and royalty interests.

This payout reinforces Triple Flag’s positioning as a yield-focused precious metals royalty and streaming business, leveraging long-life mining assets across the Americas and Australia. For shareholders, the announcement highlights the company’s emphasis on stable returns tied to gold and silver production rather than direct mine operation risk.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Funds E44 Gold Deposit to Expand Northparkes Streaming Growth

Triple Flag Precious Metals has agreed to provide US$84.3 million in development funding in late 2026 to Evolution Mining for the new gold-dominant E44 open pit deposit at the Northparkes operation in Australia. In return, Triple Flag will receive a new stream entitling it to purchase 20% of payable gold and 30% of payable silver from E44 at 10% of spot prices, alongside Evolution’s commitment to guaranteed minimum deliveries of 45,052 ounces of gold and 446,200 ounces of silver between 2030 and 2037.

The deal builds on Triple Flag’s existing gold and silver stream at Northparkes and is expected to unlock value from a high-grade deposit that was previously excluded from the life-of-mine plan. Coupled with Evolution’s approval of the E22 block cave and a study into expanding mill capacity from 7.5 Mtpa to potentially 10 Mtpa or more, the E44 transaction strengthens Northparkes’ role as a key long-term growth asset for Triple Flag and underscores closer strategic alignment between the two companies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Posts Ninth Straight Year of Record GEOs and Beats 2025 Guidance

Triple Flag Precious Metals reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$118.9 million from sales of 28,757 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) and full-year 2025 record revenue of US$388.7 million on 113,237 GEOs, marking its ninth consecutive year of record GEO volumes and achievement of the top half of its 2025 GEO guidance. Management highlighted strong performance from its portfolio of top-tier, operator-run assets, progress at key growth projects such as Arcata, Koné, Hope Bay, Goldfield and Arthur, and the benefit of a robust gold and silver price environment, which together with over US$1 billion in available liquidity and a solid external growth pipeline positions the company to continue enhancing shareholder value; Triple Flag will release detailed fourth-quarter results on February 18, 2026, followed by an investor webcast on February 19.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Hold with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.