Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$10.62B
• Dividend Yield: 0.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 223.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: 43.27%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 206,561,510
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 163,418
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 223,382
• PEG Ratio: 0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$53.22
• Price Target Upside: 3.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: C$59.00 ▲(14.74% Upside)

Triple Flag Precious Metals shows strong financial performance and a positive outlook from the latest earnings call, which are the most significant factors driving the score. The technical analysis supports a positive trend, although the valuation suggests the stock might be overvalued. Legal proceedings and operational challenges are risks to monitor.

Positive Factors

High profitability and margins

Sustained high gross and net margins indicate the streaming/royalty model converts production into cash with low operating cost. Durable margin structure supports resilient earnings across cycles, enabling reinvestment into new royalties and shielding core profitability from operational swings.

Very low leverage and solid capital structure

Extremely low leverage gives the company material financial flexibility to fund acquisitions and weather mining operator variability without refinancing stress. A strong equity base and positive ROE support stable capital deployment and reduce default or covenant risk over the medium term.

Strong liquidity and net cash position

Near-zero net debt and nearly $1bn in available liquidity provide durable optionality to pursue accretive royalties, participate in competitive financing, and absorb operational shortfalls. Solid liquidity underpins growth strategy and dividend policy without immediate external funding needs.

Negative Factors

Legal exposure from Steppe Gold arbitration

Ongoing international arbitration creates collection uncertainty and potential legal costs. Even a modest claim can delay cash receipts, complicate recoveries from that counterparty, and introduce precedent risk for other counterparties, affecting predictable royalty cash flows over months.

Negative free cash flow growth

A steep drop in free cash flow growth despite strong operating coverage signals substantial capital deployment or timing mismatches. Persistently negative FCF growth can erode cash reserves, constrain future royalty investments, and pressure dividend sustainability absent improvement in conversion efficiency.

Operational risk at Minera Florida

Streaming revenues depend on operator execution; grade shortfalls and sequencing errors at a partner mine reduce delivered ounces and predictable cash flow. Such operational issues can persist through mine plans, creating multi-period revenue downside and complicating production guidance reliability.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a gold-focused streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals and other streams and royalties in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Mongolia, Peru, South Africa, and the United States. The company has a portfolio of streams and royalties providing exposure primarily to gold and silver. It has 78 assets, including 9 streams and 69 royalties. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a subsidiary of Triple Flag Mining Elliott and Management Co-Invest LP.

How the Company Makes Money

Triple Flag Precious Metals generates revenue primarily through its streaming and royalty agreements with mining companies. In a streaming agreement, TFPM provides upfront capital to a mining company in exchange for the right to purchase a percentage of the mine's future production at a predetermined price, typically below market value. The company earns revenue as the mines produce and deliver the precious metals. Additionally, through royalty agreements, TFPM receives a percentage of the revenue generated from the sale of metals produced by the mines, which creates a steady income stream with minimal operational risk. Key revenue streams for TFPM include payments from active mines in their portfolio, along with any potential new streams or royalties established through partnerships or acquisitions in the mining sector. Collaborations with established mining companies and strategic investments in high-potential mining projects further contribute to TFPM's earnings potential.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Triple Flag Precious Metals demonstrates strong financial health with impressive profitability and growth metrics. The company benefits from low leverage and efficient cash flow management. While there are minor concerns regarding gross profit margins and free cash flow volatility, the overall financial position is robust, positioning the company well for future growth.

Income Statement

Triple Flag Precious Metals shows strong revenue growth with a 10.39% increase in TTM, and a robust net profit margin of 53.09%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 56.86% and 108.88% respectively, indicating high operational efficiency. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from previous years, suggesting potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0009, reflecting minimal leverage and strong financial stability. The return on equity is healthy at 9.83%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong, indicating a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong with a high coverage ratio of 9.18, and free cash flow has grown by 20.66%. The free cash flow to net income ratio is solid at 0.55, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, fluctuations in free cash flow in previous years suggest potential volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	344.00M	268.99M	204.02M	151.88M	150.42M	112.59M
Gross Profit	241.34M	230.76M	167.18M	87.00M	83.25M	50.10M
EBITDA	408.97M	68.75M	109.19M	118.17M	123.48M	96.16M
Net Income	204.45M	-23.08M	36.28M	55.09M	45.53M	55.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.05B	1.77B	1.89B	1.34B	1.30B	1.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.42M	39.26M	23.63M	76.47M	54.34M	48.21M
Total Debt	14.50M	1.69M	59.15M	1.92M	1.13M	276.38M
Total Liabilities	65.05M	34.26M	83.72M	18.55M	8.79M	281.98M
Stockholders Equity	1.98B	1.74B	1.81B	1.32B	1.29B	1.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.39M	156.01M	-36.76M	66.10M	68.75M	-645.30M
Operating Cash Flow	286.81M	213.50M	154.14M	118.38M	120.02M	84.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-217.39M	-81.96M	-212.98M	-48.92M	-48.15M	-651.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-84.03M	-112.60M	5.12M	-38.75M	-51.84M	577.13M

Triple Flag Precious Metals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 51.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TFPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.90, above the 50-day MA of 45.72, and above the 200-day MA of 37.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.19 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TFPM.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TFPM	78 Outperform	C$10.62B	36.48	11.27%	0.66%	43.27%	―
GMIN	72 Outperform	C$9.31B	31.49	17.77%	―	1069.24%	4643.80%
EMPR	67 Neutral	C$151.70M	30.77	17.02%	―	112.93%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
VOXR	61 Neutral	C$477.20M	-162.18	-2.13%	0.97%	11.95%	-44.15%
SLS	54 Neutral	C$2.05B	-24.71	―	―	―	7.47%

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corporate Events

Triple Flag Posts Ninth Straight Year of Record GEOs and Beats 2025 Guidance

Triple Flag Precious Metals reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$118.9 million from sales of 28,757 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) and full-year 2025 record revenue of US$388.7 million on 113,237 GEOs, marking its ninth consecutive year of record GEO volumes and achievement of the top half of its 2025 GEO guidance. Management highlighted strong performance from its portfolio of top-tier, operator-run assets, progress at key growth projects such as Arcata, Koné, Hope Bay, Goldfield and Arthur, and the benefit of a robust gold and silver price environment, which together with over US$1 billion in available liquidity and a solid external growth pipeline positions the company to continue enhancing shareholder value; Triple Flag will release detailed fourth-quarter results on February 18, 2026, followed by an investor webcast on February 19.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Hold with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Announces Q4 2025 Dividend

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a cash dividend of US$0.0575 per common share for Q4 2025, payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders recorded by December 1, 2025. This dividend declaration reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and may enhance its attractiveness to investors by providing a steady income stream.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Announces Q4 2025 Dividend

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has announced a cash dividend of US$0.0575 per common share for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders on record as of December 1, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and could enhance its attractiveness to investors seeking stable returns in the precious metals market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.

Triple Flag Achieves Record Cash Flow Amid Strategic Acquisitions

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported record operating cash flow per share for Q3 2025, driven by strategic acquisitions and a strong performance across its portfolio. The company has deployed over $350 million in capital this year, acquiring royalties and streams in significant projects, which positions it well in the current high gold price environment. The announcement reflects Triple Flag’s robust financial health and its strategic focus on expanding its asset base, benefiting stakeholders through increased dividends and a strong balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TFPM) stock is a Buy with a C$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triple Flag Precious Metals stock, see the TSE:TFPM Stock Forecast page.