Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$989.03M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 348.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.20
• Revenue Growth: 24.36%
• EPS Growth: -55.40%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 342
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 180,809,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 302,543
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 348,064
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$5.50
• Price Target Upside: 0.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$905.60M

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$6.00 ▲(9.69% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and improved cash generation despite cyclicality) and a very low P/E valuation. Earnings-call execution on production and costs supports the outlook, while extremely overbought technicals and meaningful leverage temper the rating.

Positive Factors

Strong recent profitability and margins

Sustained strong margins in 2025 indicate effective cost control and pricing realization versus peers. Durable margin performance supports internal funding for development, cushions cyclic revenue swings, and underpins the company’s ability to service debt and sustain operations over the next several quarters.

Improved cash generation

Improved operating and free cash flow provides a durable source to fund capital programs, acquisitions and shareholder returns. Reliable cash conversion strengthens liquidity and options management, enabling the company to prioritize high-return projects and opportunistic M&A in the medium term.

Capital-efficient tuck-in acquisitions boosted volumes

Targeted, low-cost acquisitions increased production scale and improved per‑share metrics without large greenfield capex. This acquisitive, capital-efficient strategy can sustainably grow production and cash flow while maintaining flexibility to pivot between drilling and M&A as markets evolve.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage / high net debt

Elevated net debt materially increases the company’s sensitivity to commodity price downturns and raises financing risk. High leverage can constrain capital allocation choices, limit the pace of buybacks or growth, and amplify losses if production or realized prices weaken over a multi‑quarter horizon.

Earnings cyclicality and historical volatility

Historically uneven earnings reflect the sector’s exposure to commodity cycles and operational variability. This structural volatility complicates forecasting, increases refinancing and operational risk during downturns, and reduces the predictability of returns for investors focused on stable cash generation.

Free cash flow below net income; ongoing reinvestment needs

FCF lagging net income signals sustained capital intensity and working capital demands, limiting the pace of debt reduction or excess returns. Over 2–6 months this structural gap requires consistent commodity realizations to translate reported earnings into durable, discretionary cash.

Saturn Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of petroleum and natural gas resource deposits in Canada. It is involved in the exploration and development of light oil assets in the Oxbow area of Southeast Saskatchewan; Viking light oil assets in West-Central Saskatchewan; Cardium light oil assets in Central Alberta; Montney and Swan Hills light oil in North Alberta. Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Saturn Oil & Gas primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—mainly crude oil and also natural gas—into market. Revenue is generated based on the volume of hydrocarbons produced from its wells and the realized prices received (which vary with commodity benchmarks, quality differentials, transportation arrangements, and applicable royalties). The company’s cash flow is influenced by operating costs (e.g., field operating expenses, processing/transportation, and maintenance), capital spending on drilling and development to sustain or grow production, and hedging activities if used to manage commodity price risk. Beyond ongoing production sales, Saturn may also generate or affect cash flows through asset acquisitions and divestitures, but specific partnership arrangements or contract counterparties are not publicly specified in the information available here and are therefore null.

Saturn Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent profitability and improved operating/free cash flow support the score, but 2025 revenue softness and historically volatile results (including prior losses) highlight cycle risk. The balance sheet is improving, though leverage remains meaningful for a commodity-sensitive business.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in the most recent year (2025) with solid gross and operating margins and a healthy net margin, showing good cost control and pricing realization. However, revenue declined in 2025 after a strong 2022–2024 run-up, and profit levels have been volatile over time (including losses in 2020–2021 and an unusually high margin year in 2023). Overall, earnings power looks good but is clearly cyclical and less consistent than top-tier peers.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful but improving: debt relative to equity declined from 2024 to 2025 and equity has strengthened materially versus earlier years (including negative equity in 2021). Returns on equity are solid in 2025, but the capital structure still carries above-average debt for a commodity-sensitive business, which can amplify downside risk if pricing or volumes weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear positive: operating cash flow and free cash flow both improved in 2025, and operating cash flow covers net income well. The main watch-out is conversion of earnings into free cash flow—free cash flow is positive but less than net income in recent years, implying ongoing reinvestment needs and/or working-capital and capital-spending demands typical of the sector.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	881.65M	920.79M	624.83M	337.19M	98.42M
Gross Profit	232.93M	577.69M	270.83M	247.64M	56.03M
EBITDA	517.85M	405.17M	567.87M	143.92M	-40.84M
Net Income	167.57M	54.11M	290.62M	74.81M	-65.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.19B	2.16B	1.34B	582.91M	221.11M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	48.42M	26.46M	18.74M	8.88M
Total Debt	827.17M	951.84M	458.01M	247.19M	95.89M
Total Liabilities	1.24B	1.36B	726.55M	444.39M	251.41M
Stockholders Equity	946.59M	803.97M	608.66M	138.52M	-30.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	216.16M	65.62M	153.41M	13.21M	-9.98M
Operating Cash Flow	457.40M	311.94M	283.99M	102.31M	-1.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-374.39M	-749.53M	-576.40M	-318.24M	-87.86M
Financing Cash Flow	-131.43M	459.55M	308.62M	223.76M	90.99M

Saturn Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SOIL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.92, above the 50-day MA of 3.38, and above the 200-day MA of 2.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 89.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SOIL.

Saturn Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SOIL	73 Outperform	C$989.03M	2.80	24.42%	―	24.36%	-55.40%
SGY	73 Outperform	$881.66M	17.02	5.47%	7.59%	-7.36%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
TAL	63 Neutral	C$450.32M	27.33	14.00%	21.85%	-2.90%	-31.97%
OBE	62 Neutral	C$806.34M	16.60	-14.96%	―	-11.85%	-307.86%
FEC	56 Neutral	C$913.62M	-0.30	-88.55%	4.07%	-2.65%	-591.26%
IPO	53 Neutral	C$506.55M	-38.65	-2.22%	12.70%	53.79%	-126.63%

Saturn Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Saturn Oil & Gas Posts Record 2025 Cash Flow as Production Beats Guidance and Debt Falls

Saturn Oil & Gas reported strong 2025 results, with fourth-quarter production averaging 43,657 boe/d, exceeding guidance and lifting full-year output to 41,728 boe/d, a 46% increase in production per debt-adjusted share versus 2024. The company generated record adjusted funds flow of $464 million and free funds flow of $223 million, supported by type curve outperformance, cost control and hedging.

Saturn repaid $110 million of Senior Notes in 2025, exiting the year with $761.5 million of net debt and a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.35x, while returning over $33 million to shareholders via share buybacks. The company reported its largest-ever positive proved developed producing technical revisions, expanded booked drilling locations by 8% and grew reserves per debt-adjusted share by over 30%, underscoring a sizable inventory that management believes can sustain 20 years of drilling and highlighting a perceived disconnect between its market valuation and underlying reserves value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Buy with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Saturn Oil & Gas Sets March Dates for Q4 and 2025 Results and Investor Call

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, together with its year-end 2025 independent reserves evaluation, after market close on March 11, 2026. The company will host a conference call and webcast with its leadership team on March 12, 2026, to review the results and answer questions, with a replay available for 12 months.

The scheduled disclosure underscores Saturn’s emphasis on transparency to investors as it advances its light oil development and acquisition strategy in Saskatchewan and Alberta. By highlighting free-cash-flowing, low-decline assets and a focus on increasing per-share reserves, production and cash flow, the update signals continued efforts to strengthen returns and reinforce the company’s positioning in the Canadian oil sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Buy with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Saturn Oil & Gas Streamlines Structure With Vertical Amalgamation

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. has completed a vertical short-form amalgamation with its wholly owned subsidiaries 1777241 Alberta Ltd. and Clearview Resources Ltd., effective January 1, 2026, consolidating its asset base and development activities under a single corporate entity. The move is intended to streamline the company’s structure, reduce corporate and operational expenses, and simplify administration without affecting existing shareholders or their share certificates, reinforcing Saturn’s focus on operational efficiency as it develops its light oil portfolio in Western Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Buy with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.