Lightspeed POS Inc (TSE:LSPD)
TSX:LSPD

Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) AI Stock Analysis

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Lightspeed POS Inc

(TSX:LSPD)

59Neutral
The overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and a positive strategic outlook, but profitability challenges and bearish technical indicators weigh heavily. The recent earnings call and corporate events suggest a confident outlook, though valuation concerns persist.
Positive Factors
Growth Strategy
The company's strategy to expand its European salesforce, which has already grown significantly and is expected to continue growing, should drive higher bookings.
Market Opportunity
The potential for Lightspeed (LSPD) to be a share gainer in its $21bn total addressable market after attending its Capital Markets Day.
Profitability
LSPD's profitability is expected to grow with higher penetration of LSPD Payments and better software growth.
Negative Factors
Macro Conditions
Several macro conditions have deteriorated, reducing discretionary spending and same-store-sales, leading to declining SMB optimism and dampening new business formation.
Market Share
Little evidence of market share gains today means these targets are aspirational at best and likely viewed by the market as unrealistic.
Transparency
Lack of transparency hurts the story – the promise of annual location disclosures is not enough for investors looking to track quarterly progress.

Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Lightspeed POS Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) is a leading provider of cloud-based point of sale (POS) and e-commerce solutions for small and medium-sized businesses. The company operates primarily in the retail, hospitality, and golf sectors, offering a suite of software tools that help businesses manage operations, customer interactions, and growth. Its core products enable businesses to optimize their sales processes, inventory management, and customer engagement, thereby enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience.
How the Company Makes MoneyLightspeed POS Inc generates revenue predominantly through a subscription-based model, where businesses pay recurring fees to access its cloud-based software solutions. This model includes various pricing tiers based on the features and scale required by the client. In addition to subscription fees, Lightspeed earns money through transaction-based revenue, where it takes a small percentage of sales processed through its payment solutions. The company also provides add-on services and hardware products, such as payment terminals and other POS devices, contributing additional revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with payment processors and other technology providers further bolster its revenue through collaborative offerings and integrations that enhance its service portfolio.

Lightspeed POS Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lightspeed POS Inc demonstrates strong revenue growth and a robust balance sheet with minimal leverage. However, the company faces persistent challenges with profitability and cash flow generation. Continued efforts to manage operating expenses and improve cash flow efficiency are critical for long-term financial health.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The company has shown significant revenue growth from 2020 to TTM, with a TTM revenue of approximately $1.05 billion, a substantial increase from $120 million in 2020. However, profitability remains a concern, as evidenced by negative net income and EBIT margins, indicating ongoing operational challenges. While gross profit margin is stable at around 41.6% in TTM, the net profit margin is negative due to high operating expenses.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Lightspeed POS Inc maintains a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.008 in TTM, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio stands at 93.6% in TTM, showcasing a solid capital structure. However, the company has consistently reported negative net income, impacting return on equity negatively and highlighting the need for improving profitability.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The company has improved its cash flow from operations over the years, though it remains negative at -$51.36 million in TTM. The free cash flow has also shown growth potential but remains negative, indicating ongoing challenges in generating positive cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting inefficiency in converting income into cash flows.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.05B909.27M730.51M548.37M221.73M120.64M
Gross Profit
438.06M385.25M331.96M271.17M127.30M77.44M
EBIT
-157.24M-203.02M-1.10B-318.34M-129.72M-58.41M
EBITDA
-12.83M-49.43M-956.91M-207.94M-90.69M-34.25M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-123.79M-163.96M-1.07B-288.43M-124.28M-53.53M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
661.57M722.10M800.15M953.65M807.15M210.97M
Total Assets
2.48B2.58B2.67B3.62B2.11B478.43M
Total Debt
19.16M23.21M25.19M60.51M55.45M46.53M
Net Debt
-642.41M-698.89M-774.96M-893.14M-751.70M-164.44M
Total Liabilities
159.28M162.75M171.28M220.69M171.04M134.29M
Stockholders Equity
2.32B2.41B2.50B3.40B1.93B344.14M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-73.76M-115.85M-138.41M-97.87M-94.86M-32.16M
Operating Cash Flow
-51.36M-97.67M-125.28M-87.22M-93.06M-28.55M
Investing Cash Flow
11.70M25.95M8.82M-563.93M-235.05M-120.29M
Financing Cash Flow
-46.84M-6.23M-35.41M798.06M922.32M153.53M

Lightspeed POS Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price11.18
Price Trends
50DMA
17.09
Negative
100DMA
20.20
Negative
200DMA
19.75
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.36
Positive
RSI
21.10
Positive
STOCH
7.35
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LSPD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.14, below the 50-day MA of 17.09, and below the 200-day MA of 19.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.10 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LSPD.

Lightspeed POS Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$141.68B50.6919.58%27.85%1400.97%
70
Outperform
C$1.19B32.3449.29%21.78%868.71%
TSKXS
68
Neutral
C$4.45B157.81-0.10%14.85%-105.25%
59
Neutral
C$1.71B-5.18%23.95%39.68%
57
Neutral
$18.57B9.42-13.42%2.72%5.01%-23.43%
TSBB
54
Neutral
$2.55B-7.59%-31.15%30.02%
TSHUT
49
Neutral
C$1.68B3.462.56%199.41%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LSPD
Lightspeed POS Inc
11.18
-7.99
-41.68%
TSE:BB
BlackBerry
4.28
0.37
9.46%
TSE:SHOP
Shopify
109.42
8.42
8.34%
TSE:DCBO
Docebo
39.35
-25.63
-39.44%
TSE:KXS
Kinaxis Inc
158.26
6.37
4.19%
TSE:HUT
Hut 8
16.18
3.98
32.62%

Lightspeed POS Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 6, 2025 | % Change Since: -46.02% | Next Earnings Date: May 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Lightspeed's strong revenue growth and increased payments penetration, supported by strategic market focus and positive EBITDA performance. However, challenges remain in same-store sales, foreign exchange headwinds, and the impact of recent restructuring. The company's proactive measures, such as the share repurchase program, suggest a confident outlook.
Highlights
Strong Revenue Growth
Lightspeed achieved a 17% year-over-year revenue growth to approximately $280 million, driven by a 9% growth in software revenue and a 23% increase in transaction-based revenue.
Increased Payments Penetration
Payments penetration increased from 29% to 38% year-over-year, with GPV up 34% to $8.8 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $16.6 million, surpassing the initial outlook of $14 million and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
Strategic Market Focus
The company is doubling down on growth in retail in North America and hospitality in Europe, aligning resources and investments accordingly.
Share Repurchase Program
Announced a share repurchase program to return up to $400 million to shareholders, indicating strong confidence in the company's valuation.
Lowlights
Same-Store Sales Challenges
Same-store sales in retail remain challenged across many verticals, although the rate of decline is easing.
Foreign Exchange Headwinds
Strengthening U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on non-U.S. dollar denominated revenue.
Seasonal Impact on Payments
Payments penetration growth slowed slightly due to seasonal factors affecting high-penetration verticals such as golf.
Impact of December Restructuring
Recent restructuring impacted go-to-market positions, with benefits from new hires expected to materialize in fiscal 2026.
Company Guidance
During the Lightspeed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. Lightspeed reported a 17% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching approximately $280 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $16.6 million, surpassing their previous outlook. The company emphasized its focus on two primary markets: North American retail and European hospitality. In these markets, they aim to expand locations and increase software and payments ARPU. The software revenue grew by 9% year-over-year, and payments penetration among merchants increased from 29% to 38%. For fiscal 2025, they raised their adjusted EBITDA outlook to over $53 million, a 30% increase from the initial forecast. Additionally, Lightspeed announced a share repurchase program to return up to $400 million to shareholders. The company plans to continue accelerating software growth and profitability through strategic investments and a focus on innovation in its core markets.

Lightspeed POS Inc Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lightspeed Revises Fiscal 2025 Financial Outlook Amid Economic Challenges
Negative
Mar 24, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. has revised its fiscal 2025 financial outlook due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including inflationary pressures and weakened consumer confidence, which have impacted consumer spending and small business optimism. The company now expects a year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 18%, down from the previously anticipated 20%, primarily due to pressure on transaction-based revenue. Despite these challenges, Lightspeed remains committed to profitable growth, cost management, and executing its core strengths. The company will present its three-year strategy at the upcoming Capital Markets Day.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lightspeed Commerce Secures Legal Victory with Dismissal of Class Action Lawsuit
Positive
Mar 4, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced a significant legal victory as the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York dismissed a securities class action lawsuit against the company and its executives, citing a lack of adequate legal basis for the allegations. The lawsuit was primarily based on a short-seller report by Spruce Point Capital Management, which was deemed inaccurate. This outcome allows Lightspeed to focus on its upcoming Capital Markets Day, where it will discuss its transformation plan and long-term financial outlook.

Business Operations and Strategy
Lightspeed to Present at Morgan Stanley Conference
Neutral
Feb 25, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, where Founder and CEO Dax Dasilva will speak. This participation underscores Lightspeed’s ongoing efforts to engage with investors and stakeholders, potentially enhancing its visibility and influence in the technology and commerce sectors.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lightspeed Announces Details for Capital Markets Day 2025
Neutral
Feb 13, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. has announced the details for its Capital Markets Day, scheduled for March 26, 2025, at the New York Stock Exchange. The event will provide insights into the company’s transformation plan, including operational and financial impacts, product updates, and long-term financial outlook, with opportunities for both in-person and virtual attendance.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lightspeed Initiates Strategic Transformation and Reports Strong Q3 Financials
Positive
Feb 6, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced the outcomes of its strategic review and third-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting a transformation plan aimed at maximizing value for shareholders as a public company. The company reported a 17% increase in total revenue to $280.1 million and a positive adjusted EBITDA of $16.6 million. The transformation plan focuses on enhancing its go-to-market strategy and product offerings, particularly in North American retail and European hospitality, while also implementing a $400 million share repurchase program to return capital to shareholders.

Lightspeed to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results on February 6
Jan 9, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced it will release its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 on February 6, 2025, before the market opens. The company will hold a conference call and webcast on the same day to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with insights into its financial performance. This announcement highlights Lightspeed’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its investors, which may impact its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.