Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (TSE:LCFS)
TSX:LCFS
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Tidewater Renewables Ltd.
(TSX:LCFS)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
▲(45.52% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/12/26
The score reflects strong technical momentum and a supportive earnings call with raised EBITDA guidance, tempered by only mid-level financial statement strength due to leverage, historical earnings volatility, and mixed cash-flow quality; valuation is supportive via a low P/E but lacks dividend support.
Positive Factors
Operational reliability
Sustained ~95% utilization at HDRD and rising Prince George throughput indicate durable operational reliability. High utilization lowers unit operating cost, improves margin capture under indexed offtakes, and supports consistent cash generation across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Debt-to-equity near 1.2 constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. If margins or production slip, leverage amplifies downside to cash flow and limits the company's ability to invest or absorb shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational reliability
Sustained ~95% utilization at HDRD and rising Prince George throughput indicate durable operational reliability. High utilization lowers unit operating cost, improves margin capture under indexed offtakes, and supports consistent cash generation across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$425.20M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.4
Beta (1Y)-1.16
Revenue Growth-23.88%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees83
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding36,435,000
10 Day Avg. Volume12,968
30 Day Avg. Volume11,206
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio27.63
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$9.50Price Target Upside10.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$338.13M
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. engages in production of renewable fuel in North America. It intends to focus on the production of low carbon fuels, including renewable diesel, renewable hydrogen, and renewable natural gas, as well as carbon capture. Th...
How the Company Makes Money
Tidewater Renewables makes money primarily by producing and selling low-carbon fuels and related products into fuel markets, and by generating and monetizing environmental compliance credits tied to the carbon intensity of its products. Key revenu...
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial momentum: strong Q1 results across Renewables and Midstream (notably HDRD running at 95% utilization, Prince George throughput +9% YoY, robust crack spreads, and increased full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance). Favorable U.S. EPA decisions and higher D4 RIN prices materially improved realized renewables margins and helped secure multiyear offtakes. Management also strengthened near-term liquidity via a credit facility amendment and maintained disciplined capital allocation. Key risks include the curtailed Ram River plant, exposure to commodity and geopolitical volatility (only ~50% of refinery crack exposure hedged), pending execution of incentive agreements and asset sales, and a relatively short extension on credit facility maturities. On balance, the positive operational execution, upgraded guidance, and supportive regulatory tailwinds outweigh the outstanding execution and market risks.Positive Updates
Tidewater Renewables Strong Start and Incentive Funding
Tidewater Renewables reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $24.1 million and recognized $6.1 million of expected funding from the Canadian biofuel production incentive. Management received additional NRCan approval confirming incentive funding aligned with full annual HDRD production capacity; contribution agreement expected to be executed in Q2 2026 with quarterly cash payments thereafter.
Negative Updates
Ram River Gas Plant Temporarily Curtailed
Ram River gas plant remains temporarily curtailed while sulfur handling operations continue; restart depends on producer volumes and negotiations—management expects a higher probability of restart in the second half of 2026, but timing remains uncertain.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Tidewater Renewables Strong Start and Incentive Funding
Tidewater Renewables reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $24.1 million and recognized $6.1 million of expected funding from the Canadian biofuel production incentive. Management received additional NRCan approval confirming incentive funding aligned with full annual HDRD production capacity; contribution agreement expected to be executed in Q2 2026 with quarterly cash payments thereafter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to $190–$210 million and increased Tidewater Renewables’ adjusted EBITDA guidance to $100–$110 million, based on expected 2026 renewable diesel production of 150–170 million liters and an assumed biofuel production incentive (BPI) rate of $0.16/liter (with $6.1 million recognized in Q1 and cash payments to be received quarterly in arrears once the contribution agreement is executed, expected in Q2); supporting metrics include Q1 Renewables adjusted EBITDA of $24.1 million (HDRD throughput 2,837 bpd, 95% utilization), Q1 Midstream adjusted EBITDA of $49.7 million, Prince George refinery Q1 throughput of 10,784 bpd (up 9% YoY) and a Q1 crack spread averaging $102/boe (up $8 QoQ) with ~50% of the Prince George crack hedged for the balance of 2026, BRC gas plant throughput of 114 mmcf/d (up 12% QoQ) and fractionation at 90% utilization; capex guidance remains unchanged at $2–3 million for Renewables and $20–25 million consolidated (net of BC LCFS credits), free cash flow is to be directed primarily to debt reduction, and the $175 million senior credit facilities maturity was extended to August 2027 with both companies in compliance with covenants.Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 283.91M | 248.00M | 426.54M | 97.68M | 76.10M | 23.05M |
| Gross Profit | 40.86M | 18.10M | 118.15M | 44.05M | 46.13M | 8.93M |
| EBITDA | 57.13M | 30.00M | -404.94M | -17.12M | 62.30M | 12.11M |
| Net Income | 8.26M | 3.50M | -357.85M | -41.02M | 25.94M | 2.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 419.70M | 397.60M | 406.53M | 1.09B | 993.32M | 730.99M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 44.00K | 105.00K | 11.38M | 1.02M |
| Total Debt | 200.00M | 199.20M | 192.98M | 345.60M | 219.37M | 81.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 253.80M | 242.40M | 248.75M | 573.57M | 443.20M | 215.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 165.90M | 155.20M | 151.27M | 506.63M | 543.63M | 515.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.44M | 5.60M | 30.60M | -180.02M | -177.13M | -24.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.29M | 18.70M | 54.65M | 22.78M | 67.44M | 6.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.02M | -13.00M | 129.08M | -136.04M | -194.50M | -213.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.35M | -5.70M | -183.79M | 101.98M | 137.41M | 207.81M |
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
8.59
Price Trends
6.33
Positive
5.24
Positive
4.44
Positive
Market Momentum
0.67
Negative
73.53
Negative
82.60
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LCFS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.55, above the 50-day MA of 6.33, and above the 200-day MA of 4.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.60 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LCFS.
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | C$425.20M | 6.36 | 5.00% | ― | -23.88% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
46 Neutral | C$14.25M | -5.14 | -69.20% | ― | -35.26% | -811.11% | |
45 Neutral | C$51.89M | -4.88 | -24.57% | ― | -19.22% | 11.82% | |
43 Neutral | C$36.29M | -6.77 | -29.47% | ― | ― | -163.54% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LCFS
Tidewater Renewables Ltd.
11.67
9.07
348.85%
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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Tidewater Renewables Swings to Profit in 2025 Amid Weaker EBITDA and Policy Tailwinds
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Tidewater Renewables reported a wider fourth-quarter 2025 net loss of $13.8 million and negative Adjusted EBITDA as lower throughput and weaker contributions from its Rimrock Cattle joint venture weighed on results, though a completed turnaround a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tidewater Renewables Swings to 2025 Profit Amid Weaker EBITDA and Regulatory Tailwinds
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Tidewater Renewables reported a wider fourth-quarter 2025 net loss of $13.8 million and negative adjusted EBITDA as lower throughput and reduced contributions from its Rimrock Cattle Company joint venture weighed on results, though a completed tur...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.