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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (TSE:LCFS)
TSX:LCFS
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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:LCFS

Tidewater Renewables Ltd.

(TSX:LCFS)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
C$4.00
▼(-6.54% Downside)
The overall stock score is primarily impacted by significant financial challenges, including negative profitability and high leverage. While technical analysis shows some short-term strength, the negative valuation metrics further weigh down the score.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTidewater Renewables Ltd. is a leading Canadian renewable energy company focused on the production of low-carbon fuels and renewable energy solutions. Operating within the renewable energy sector, the company specializes in the manufacture of biofuels, particularly renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, utilizing advanced technology and sustainable feedstocks. Tidewater Renewables aims to contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while providing cleaner energy alternatives to traditional fossil fuels.
How the Company Makes MoneyTidewater Renewables generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, which are sold to various end-users including transportation and aviation companies. The company benefits from government incentives and credits associated with low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS), allowing it to monetize its carbon reduction efforts. Additionally, partnerships with feedstock suppliers and distribution networks enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. The demand for renewable fuels driven by regulatory frameworks and increasing consumer preference for sustainable energy solutions further contributes to its revenue streams.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted significant asset sales and debt reduction, strong operational performance at the HDRD Complex, and progress on a sustainable aviation fuel project. However, these positives were overshadowed by a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA, weak emission credit markets, and challenges related to trade remedies against U.S. imports.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Asset Sale and Debt Reduction
Completed a significant transaction with Tidewater Midstream, selling key assets for $122 million, which was used to reduce outstanding debt on the senior credit facility.
HDRD Complex Performance
The HDRD Complex achieved a 95% utilization rate in Q3 2024, producing and selling over 140 million liters of renewable diesel since November 2023.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Project Progress
Continued progress on the front-end engineering design for a 6,500-barrel per day sustainable aviation fuel project, fully funded through BC LCFS credits.
Negative Updates
Decline in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $13.6 million in Q3 2024, down from $29.6 million in Q2 2024, due to the sale of EBITDA-generating assets and termination of take-or-pay contracts.
Weak Emission Credit Market
The demand and price for emission credits remain weak, impacting the company’s ability to compete with subsidized U.S. producers.
Trade Remedy Challenges
Engaged in trade remedy complaints against U.S. renewable diesel imports, which are unfairly priced and affect competitiveness. The outcome and timeline of this complaint are uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Tidewater Renewables, the company provided significant guidance on its operations and financial performance. The company completed the sale of key assets to Tidewater Midstream, generating $122 million in cash proceeds, which were used to reduce debt. Tidewater Renewables also secured $7.7 million in BC LCFS credits from this transaction. The HDRD Complex achieved a 95% utilization rate, producing over 140 million liters of renewable diesel. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $13.6 million for Q3, down from $29.6 million in Q2, primarily due to the asset sale. The first lien credit facility was reduced to $30 million and extended to February 2026. In addition, Tidewater Renewables is pursuing a trade remedy complaint against U.S. imports, anticipating potential duty relief by late Q2 2025. The company remains optimistic about policy support to create a level playing field with U.S. producers and continues to advance its sustainable aviation fuel project, funded by BC LCFS credits.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative net income, and high leverage. The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow analysis all indicate financial instability, with negative profit margins and cash flow difficulties.
Income Statement
35
Negative
The income statement shows significant challenges with negative net income and declining revenue growth. The TTM data indicates a negative net profit margin of -96.61%, and a revenue decline of 19.74% compared to the previous period. Gross profit margin has also decreased from 27.70% to 22.81%. The company is struggling with profitability as reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable, suggesting some balance in asset financing.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a concerning trend with negative free cash flow and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.11 in the TTM period. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, indicating cash flow challenges. Despite a slight improvement in free cash flow growth, the overall cash flow position remains weak.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue299.35M426.54M97.68M76.10M23.05M4.17M
Gross Profit64.95M118.15M44.05M46.13M8.93M-1.78M
EBITDA-423.73M-404.94M-17.12M62.30M12.11M-4.01M
Net Income-352.22M-357.85M-41.02M25.94M2.76M-12.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets397.22M406.53M1.09B993.32M730.99M73.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments202.00K44.00K105.00K11.38M1.02M-25.35M
Total Debt191.35M192.98M345.60M219.37M81.86M25.35M
Total Liabilities227.23M248.75M573.57M443.20M215.40M33.38M
Stockholders Equity169.99M151.27M506.63M543.63M515.60M39.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-11.99M30.60M-180.02M-177.13M-24.62M-8.01M
Operating Cash Flow2.23M54.65M22.78M67.44M6.36M-4.43M
Investing Cash Flow151.83M129.08M-136.04M-194.50M-213.15M-3.02M
Financing Cash Flow-155.83M-183.79M101.98M137.41M207.81M7.45M

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4.28
Price Trends
50DMA
4.17
Positive
100DMA
3.48
Positive
200DMA
2.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
57.12
Neutral
STOCH
77.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LCFS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.02, above the 50-day MA of 4.17, and above the 200-day MA of 2.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LCFS.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
0.97%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
59
Neutral
C$12.89M-3.19-66.34%-38.92%-195.51%
57
Neutral
C$2.89B-288.59-0.61%2.31%-13.45%-112.19%
54
Neutral
C$63.96M3.8642.58%-51.92%
50
Neutral
C$68.32M-3.28-25.34%-15.02%-20.61%
46
Neutral
C$156.21M-0.43-102.17%-7.35%-3550.94%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LCFS
Tidewater Renewables Ltd.
4.28
2.43
131.35%
TSE:GIP
Green Impact Partners Inc
3.15
0.00
0.00%
TSE:BLX
Boralex Inc Cl A
28.63
-3.63
-11.25%
TSE:INE
Innergex Renewable Energy
13.74
5.17
60.33%
TSE:REVV
ReVolve Renewable Power Corp
0.20
-0.04
-16.67%
TSE:WEB
Westbridge Energy
2.20
-1.03
-31.89%

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Tidewater Renewables Supports Canadian Government’s Biofuels Incentive
Positive
Sep 6, 2025

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. has expressed its support for the Canadian government’s announcement of a new Biofuels Production Incentive, which will provide $370 million over two years to support biodiesel and renewable diesel producers. This initiative is expected to enhance the company’s cash flow and returns, as its Prince George refinery is projected to produce significant volumes of renewable diesel during the eligible period. The government’s measures, including amendments to the Clean Fuel Regulations, aim to strengthen the domestic low-carbon fuels industry, benefiting Tidewater Renewables and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tidewater Renewables Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Strategic Advances
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. reported a significant increase in net income for the second quarter of 2025, driven by improved cash flows and strategic offtake agreements. The company secured contracts for over 70% of its forecasted production for the latter half of 2025, benefiting from favorable regulatory changes in British Columbia that align with its strategic vision. These developments, alongside an extension of its credit facility, position Tidewater Renewables to capture additional market value and strengthen its competitive stance in the renewable fuels sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2025