tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (TSE:LCFS)
TSX:LCFS
Advertisement

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
34 Followers

Top Page

TSE:LCFS

Tidewater Renewables Ltd.

(TSX:LCFS)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
C$3.00
▼(-9.91% Downside)
The overall stock score is primarily impacted by the company's weak financial performance, which is a significant concern. Despite positive technical indicators suggesting some market momentum, the negative valuation metrics due to ongoing losses and lack of profitability weigh heavily on the stock's attractiveness.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTidewater Renewables Ltd. engages in production of renewable fuel in North America. It intends to focus on the production of low carbon fuels, including renewable diesel, renewable hydrogen, and renewable natural gas, as well as carbon capture. The company intends to supply low carbon fuels to investment grade offtakers, existing customers, government entities, first nations groups, and others in the transportation, utilities, refining, marketing, power, and other industries. Tidewater Renewables Ltd. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTidewater Renewables Ltd. generates revenue through the production and sale of low-carbon fuels and renewable energy products, including renewable diesel and hydrogen. The company capitalizes on its existing infrastructure and strategic location to access feedstock and deliver its products efficiently. Revenue streams include sales contracts with fuel distributors, partnerships with other energy companies, and government incentives or credits for producing low-carbon fuels. Additionally, the company benefits from participating in carbon credit markets, allowing it to monetize reductions in carbon emissions. These diverse revenue streams enable Tidewater Renewables to maintain a robust financial foundation while contributing to a sustainable energy future.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted significant asset sales and debt reduction, strong operational performance at the HDRD Complex, and progress on a sustainable aviation fuel project. However, these positives were overshadowed by a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA, weak emission credit markets, and challenges related to trade remedies against U.S. imports.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Asset Sale and Debt Reduction
Completed a significant transaction with Tidewater Midstream, selling key assets for $122 million, which was used to reduce outstanding debt on the senior credit facility.
HDRD Complex Performance
The HDRD Complex achieved a 95% utilization rate in Q3 2024, producing and selling over 140 million liters of renewable diesel since November 2023.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Project Progress
Continued progress on the front-end engineering design for a 6,500-barrel per day sustainable aviation fuel project, fully funded through BC LCFS credits.
Negative Updates
Decline in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $13.6 million in Q3 2024, down from $29.6 million in Q2 2024, due to the sale of EBITDA-generating assets and termination of take-or-pay contracts.
Weak Emission Credit Market
The demand and price for emission credits remain weak, impacting the company’s ability to compete with subsidized U.S. producers.
Trade Remedy Challenges
Engaged in trade remedy complaints against U.S. renewable diesel imports, which are unfairly priced and affect competitiveness. The outcome and timeline of this complaint are uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Tidewater Renewables, the company provided significant guidance on its operations and financial performance. The company completed the sale of key assets to Tidewater Midstream, generating $122 million in cash proceeds, which were used to reduce debt. Tidewater Renewables also secured $7.7 million in BC LCFS credits from this transaction. The HDRD Complex achieved a 95% utilization rate, producing over 140 million liters of renewable diesel. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $13.6 million for Q3, down from $29.6 million in Q2, primarily due to the asset sale. The first lien credit facility was reduced to $30 million and extended to February 2026. In addition, Tidewater Renewables is pursuing a trade remedy complaint against U.S. imports, anticipating potential duty relief by late Q2 2025. The company remains optimistic about policy support to create a level playing field with U.S. producers and continues to advance its sustainable aviation fuel project, funded by BC LCFS credits.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative profitability, high leverage, and cash flow difficulties. The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow analysis all indicate a need for strategic improvements.
Income Statement
35
Negative
The income statement shows significant challenges with negative net income and declining revenue growth. The TTM data indicates a negative net profit margin of -96.61%, and a revenue decline of 19.74% compared to the previous period. Gross profit margin has also decreased from 27.70% to 22.81%. The company is struggling with profitability as reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable, suggesting some balance in asset financing.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a concerning trend with negative free cash flow and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.11 in the TTM period. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, indicating cash flow challenges. Despite a slight improvement in free cash flow growth, the overall cash flow position remains weak.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue299.35M426.54M97.68M76.10M23.05M4.17M
Gross Profit64.95M118.15M44.05M46.13M8.93M-1.78M
EBITDA-423.73M-404.94M-17.12M62.30M12.11M-4.01M
Net Income-352.22M-357.85M-41.02M25.94M2.76M-12.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets397.22M406.53M1.09B993.32M730.99M73.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments202.00K44.00K105.00K11.38M1.02M-25.35M
Total Debt191.35M192.98M345.60M219.37M81.86M25.35M
Total Liabilities227.23M248.75M573.57M443.20M215.40M33.38M
Stockholders Equity169.99M151.27M506.63M543.63M515.60M39.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-11.99M30.60M-180.02M-177.13M-24.62M-8.01M
Operating Cash Flow2.23M54.65M22.78M67.44M6.36M-4.43M
Investing Cash Flow151.83M129.08M-136.04M-194.50M-213.15M-3.02M
Financing Cash Flow-155.83M-183.79M101.98M137.41M207.81M7.45M

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.33
Price Trends
50DMA
2.87
Positive
100DMA
2.80
Positive
200DMA
2.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.18
Negative
RSI
59.02
Neutral
STOCH
67.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LCFS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.20, above the 50-day MA of 2.87, and above the 200-day MA of 2.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LCFS.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
0.97%
66
Neutral
$17.25B17.875.54%3.65%6.63%11.55%
59
Neutral
C$13.91M5.5673.47%371.84%
54
Neutral
C$2.89B271.12-0.61%2.37%-13.45%-112.19%
54
Neutral
C$55.63M3.1939.75%-46.59%
51
Neutral
C$126.35M-102.17%-7.35%-3550.94%
50
Neutral
C$69.51M-25.34%-15.02%-20.61%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LCFS
Tidewater Renewables Ltd.
3.33
0.71
27.10%
TSE:GIP
Green Impact Partners Inc
3.55
0.21
6.29%
TSE:BLX
Boralex Inc Cl A
28.00
-3.03
-9.76%
TSE:INE
Innergex Renewable Energy
13.74
4.98
56.85%
TSE:REVV
ReVolve Renewable Power Corp
0.20
-0.08
-28.57%
TSE:WEB
Westbridge Energy
2.20
-0.84
-27.63%

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tidewater Renewables Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Strategic Advances
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. reported a significant increase in net income for the second quarter of 2025, driven by improved cash flows and strategic offtake agreements. The company secured contracts for over 70% of its forecasted production for the latter half of 2025, benefiting from favorable regulatory changes in British Columbia that align with its strategic vision. These developments, alongside an extension of its credit facility, position Tidewater Renewables to capture additional market value and strengthen its competitive stance in the renewable fuels sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tidewater Renewables Announces AGM Results and Strategic Decisions
Neutral
May 28, 2025

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. announced the results of its annual general meeting, where 82.431% of outstanding shares were voted. Key outcomes included the election of four directors, re-appointment of Deloitte LLP as auditors, and approval of the executive compensation approach. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and strategic direction as it continues to focus on renewable energy solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025