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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (TSE:LCFS)
TSX:LCFS

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) AI Stock Analysis

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Tidewater Renewables Ltd.

(TSX:LCFS)

Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.50
▼(-1.96%Downside)
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. faces significant challenges, primarily driven by negative financial performance and valuation issues. Technical analysis provides a neutral outlook, but recent corporate events add additional pressure. The company's financial instability and market challenges are the most significant factors affecting its stock score.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) is a Canada-based clean energy company focused on the production and supply of low-carbon fuels. Operating primarily in the renewable energy sector, the company specializes in the development, commercialization, and sale of renewable fuels and products, such as renewable diesel and renewable natural gas. Through strategic projects and a commitment to sustainability, Tidewater Renewables aims to play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting environmental stewardship.
How the Company Makes MoneyTidewater Renewables Ltd. generates revenue through the production and sale of renewable fuels, including renewable diesel and renewable natural gas. The company capitalizes on government incentives and credits related to low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) and carbon offset programs, which enhance the profitability of its renewable products. Key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts with various industries, leveraging partnerships with governmental and non-governmental organizations, and investing in infrastructure that supports the efficient production and distribution of renewable fuels. Additionally, Tidewater Renewables may engage in joint ventures and strategic alliances to expand its market reach and optimize its operations, further contributing to its earnings.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: -3.77%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted significant asset sales and debt reduction, strong operational performance at the HDRD Complex, and progress on a sustainable aviation fuel project. However, these positives were overshadowed by a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA, weak emission credit markets, and challenges related to trade remedies against U.S. imports.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Asset Sale and Debt Reduction
Completed a significant transaction with Tidewater Midstream, selling key assets for $122 million, which was used to reduce outstanding debt on the senior credit facility.
HDRD Complex Performance
The HDRD Complex achieved a 95% utilization rate in Q3 2024, producing and selling over 140 million liters of renewable diesel since November 2023.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Project Progress
Continued progress on the front-end engineering design for a 6,500-barrel per day sustainable aviation fuel project, fully funded through BC LCFS credits.
Negative Updates
Decline in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $13.6 million in Q3 2024, down from $29.6 million in Q2 2024, due to the sale of EBITDA-generating assets and termination of take-or-pay contracts.
Weak Emission Credit Market
The demand and price for emission credits remain weak, impacting the company’s ability to compete with subsidized U.S. producers.
Trade Remedy Challenges
Engaged in trade remedy complaints against U.S. renewable diesel imports, which are unfairly priced and affect competitiveness. The outcome and timeline of this complaint are uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Tidewater Renewables, the company provided significant guidance on its operations and financial performance. The company completed the sale of key assets to Tidewater Midstream, generating $122 million in cash proceeds, which were used to reduce debt. Tidewater Renewables also secured $7.7 million in BC LCFS credits from this transaction. The HDRD Complex achieved a 95% utilization rate, producing over 140 million liters of renewable diesel. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $13.6 million for Q3, down from $29.6 million in Q2, primarily due to the asset sale. The first lien credit facility was reduced to $30 million and extended to February 2026. In addition, Tidewater Renewables is pursuing a trade remedy complaint against U.S. imports, anticipating potential duty relief by late Q2 2025. The company remains optimistic about policy support to create a level playing field with U.S. producers and continues to advance its sustainable aviation fuel project, funded by BC LCFS credits.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The company is struggling financially with negative net income and declining gross profit margins. While the balance sheet shows some stability, cash flow challenges and inconsistent revenue growth present significant risks.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The income statement shows a challenging financial situation with a negative net income trend and declining gross profit margins. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with significant fluctuations over the years. Despite a positive EBIT margin, the negative EBITDA highlights ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. However, a declining equity ratio suggests increasing leverage. Return on equity metrics are negative due to consistent net losses, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates negative free cash flow growth and a decreasing operating cash flow to net income ratio. This suggests that the company is struggling to generate cash from its operations, which could impact future investments and financial health.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue372.98M426.54M97.68M76.10M23.05M4.17M
Gross Profit85.09M118.15M44.05M46.13M8.93M-1.78M
EBITDA-420.73M-409.47M-17.12M62.30M12.11M-4.01M
Net Income-360.32M-357.85M-41.02M25.94M2.76M-12.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets401.69M406.53M1.09B993.32M730.99M73.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments123.00K44.00K105.00K11.38M1.02M-25.35M
Total Debt172.10M192.98M345.60M219.37M81.86M25.35M
Total Liabilities245.17M248.75M573.57M443.20M215.40M33.38M
Stockholders Equity156.52M151.27M506.63M543.63M515.60M39.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-11.73M30.60M-180.02M-177.13M-24.62M-8.01M
Operating Cash Flow8.60M54.65M22.78M67.44M6.36M-4.43M
Investing Cash Flow119.34M129.08M-136.04M-194.50M-213.15M-3.02M
Financing Cash Flow-147.77M-183.79M101.98M137.41M207.81M7.45M

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.55
Price Trends
50DMA
2.68
Negative
100DMA
2.39
Positive
200DMA
1.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
48.18
Neutral
STOCH
25.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LCFS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.54, below the 50-day MA of 2.68, and above the 200-day MA of 1.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LCFS.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSINE
67
Neutral
C$2.78B69.814.20%2.63%0.97%
61
Neutral
C$4.81B-10.63-12.21%4.50%11.13%-68.91%
61
Neutral
C$13.55M6.3973.47%371.84%
TSBLX
58
Neutral
C$3.31B301.310.67%2.81%-16.63%-87.78%
TSWEB
54
Neutral
C$59.62M3.0243.72%-37.73%
TSGIP
50
Neutral
C$83.41M-24.89%-13.68%-1548.28%
44
Neutral
C$94.67M-107.29%97.32%-2916.07%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LCFS
Tidewater Renewables Ltd.
2.55
-4.65
-64.58%
TSE:BLX
Boralex Inc Cl A
32.24
-1.07
-3.21%
TSE:WEB
Westbridge Energy
0.59
-0.26
-30.59%
TSE:INE
Innergex Renewable Energy
13.71
3.39
32.85%
TSE:GIP
Green Impact Partners Inc
4.26
1.05
32.71%
TSE:REVV
ReVolve Renewable Power Corp
0.23
-0.15
-39.47%

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tidewater Renewables Announces AGM Results and Strategic Decisions
Neutral
May 28, 2025

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. announced the results of its annual general meeting, where 82.431% of outstanding shares were voted. Key outcomes included the election of four directors, re-appointment of Deloitte LLP as auditors, and approval of the executive compensation approach. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and strategic direction as it continues to focus on renewable energy solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tidewater Renewables Reports Q1 2025 Results and Strategic Developments
Neutral
May 8, 2025

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. reported its first-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a strategic sale of its interest in Rimrock Renewables Limited Partnership, which helped reduce debt. The company faced a decline in net income and Adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, attributed to asset sales and contract terminations. The Government of British Columbia’s amendments to the Low Carbon Fuels Act, increasing renewable fuel requirements, are seen as beneficial for the company and the broader Canadian biofuels sector. Additionally, Tidewater Renewables successfully refinanced its credit facilities, providing more financial flexibility. Despite a minor fire incident at its renewable diesel complex, operations resumed swiftly with minimal impact. The Canadian International Trade Tribunal’s decision to terminate an inquiry into alleged subsidized U.S. imports marks a significant development for the company.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tribunal Ends Inquiry into Tidewater Renewables’ Trade Complaint
Negative
May 6, 2025

The Canadian International Trade Tribunal has terminated its preliminary injury inquiry into Tidewater Renewables Ltd.’s complaint regarding countervailing and anti-dumping duties on U.S. renewable diesel imports. Despite disappointment, Tidewater Renewables remains committed to advocating for fair trade in Canada’s renewable diesel market, as it believes that U.S. imports have caused significant harm to its operations as the sole Canadian producer. The company is reviewing its options and may consider filing a new complaint.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025