Tidewater Renewables Ltd. (LCFS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$160.25M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): -1.44
• Revenue Growth: -30.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 83
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 36,419,495
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,968
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,206
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$6.00
• Price Target Upside: 36.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: C$4.50 ▲(2.27% Upside)

The overall stock score for Tidewater Renewables Ltd. is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance, with improved profitability but declining revenue growth and cash flow challenges. Technical indicators suggest a neutral to bearish trend, while the valuation appears reasonable. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Strategic access to feedstock & logistics

Connection to the Tidewater midstream/downstream platform provides durable operational advantages: more reliable feedstock sourcing, lower logistics/friction costs and stronger offtake channels. Those structural benefits support margin sustainability and reduce execution risk over months.

Improving profitability

The move to a positive net margin (5.2% TTM) indicates that management has tightened cost control and improved operating leverage. Sustained profitability increases reinvestment capacity and resiliency to commodity and credit-price swings over the medium term.

Business tied to low-carbon fuels & credits

A business model based on renewable diesel production plus sale of environmental credits aligns with long-term regulatory and market trends toward lower-carbon fuels. Structural demand from compliance regimes can provide recurring revenue and premium pricing over time.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Leverage at ~1.1x constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. With capital-intensive operations and volatile commodity-linked cash flows, elevated debt increases the risk that operational setbacks erode equity and limit strategic investments.

Weak cash generation

Negative FCF growth and an OCF-to-net-income ratio of 0.19 show poor cash conversion. That structural cash weakness limits ability to pay down debt, fund maintenance or expansion, and absorb commodity cycle shocks without external financing or asset sales.

Declining revenue trajectory

Sharp negative top-line growth undermines scale economics and puts pressure on unit margins and credit generation. Sustained volume or revenue declines reduce utilization of fixed assets and challenge the company’s ability to convert renewable-fuel capacity into durable earnings growth.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. engages in production of renewable fuel in North America. It intends to focus on the production of low carbon fuels, including renewable diesel, renewable hydrogen, and renewable natural gas, as well as carbon capture. The company intends to supply low carbon fuels to investment grade offtakers, existing customers, government entities, first nations groups, and others in the transportation, utilities, refining, marketing, power, and other industries. Tidewater Renewables Ltd. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Tidewater Renewables generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, which are sold to various end-users including transportation and aviation companies. The company benefits from government incentives and credits associated with low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS), allowing it to monetize its carbon reduction efforts. Additionally, partnerships with feedstock suppliers and distribution networks enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. The demand for renewable fuels driven by regulatory frameworks and increasing consumer preference for sustainable energy solutions further contributes to its revenue streams.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. shows mixed financial performance. While profitability has improved with a positive net profit margin, revenue growth has declined, and cash flow management remains a concern. The balance sheet reflects high leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Overall, the company needs to focus on enhancing revenue growth and improving cash flow stability to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. has experienced a decline in revenue growth with a negative rate of -9.9% in the TTM period, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin has decreased to 16.1% from 27.7% in the previous year, reflecting increased cost pressures. However, the company has managed to achieve a positive net profit margin of 5.2% in the TTM period, a significant improvement from the negative margin in the previous year, showing better cost management and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.10, indicating a relatively high level of leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity has improved to 8.6% in the TTM period, suggesting better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets.

Cash Flow

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. faces challenges in cash flow management, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -23% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.19, indicating limited cash generation relative to net income. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	269.73M	426.54M	97.68M	76.10M	23.05M	4.17M
Gross Profit	43.48M	118.15M	44.05M	46.13M	8.93M	-1.78M
EBITDA	57.39M	-404.94M	-17.12M	62.30M	12.11M	-3.93M
Net Income	13.92M	-357.85M	-41.02M	25.94M	2.76M	-12.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	398.45M	406.53M	1.09B	993.32M	730.99M	73.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.04M	44.00K	105.00K	11.38M	1.02M	-25.35M
Total Debt	186.77M	192.98M	345.60M	219.37M	81.86M	25.35M
Total Liabilities	229.37M	248.75M	573.57M	443.20M	215.40M	33.38M
Stockholders Equity	169.08M	151.27M	506.63M	543.63M	515.60M	39.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-9.24M	30.60M	-180.02M	-177.13M	-24.62M	-8.01M
Operating Cash Flow	9.15M	54.65M	22.78M	67.44M	6.36M	-4.43M
Investing Cash Flow	11.09M	129.08M	-136.04M	-194.50M	-213.15M	-3.02M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.21M	-183.79M	101.98M	137.41M	207.81M	7.45M

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LCFS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.31, above the 50-day MA of 4.16, and above the 200-day MA of 3.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LCFS.

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
REVV	59 Neutral	C$12.99M	-3.65	-69.20%	―	-31.40%	-354.49%
LCFS	50 Neutral	C$160.25M	11.51	8.55%	―	-30.92%	―
WEB	50 Neutral	C$50.18M	3.03	42.58%	―	―	-51.92%
GIP	45 Neutral	C$52.07M	-2.80	-23.88%	―	-19.22%	11.82%

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. Corporate Events

Tidewater Renewables Restores Full Capacity at Prince George Facility

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. announced the successful completion of a planned seven-day outage at its renewable diesel and hydrogen complex in Prince George, British Columbia. The outage was necessary to reinstall a repaired component after an unplanned shutdown in October. With the component now installed, the facility has returned to full capacity, increasing its utilization to 3,000 barrels per day. This development marks a significant step in the company’s operations, reinforcing its commitment to maintaining efficient production and strengthening its position in the renewable fuels market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.

Tidewater Renewables Reports Improved Q3 Results and Strategic Advancements

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. reported a net loss of $1.0 million for the third quarter of 2025, showing significant improvement from the previous year’s loss. The company achieved a 21% increase in Adjusted EBITDA, driven by contributions from its joint venture with Rimrock Cattle Company. The Canadian government’s new Biofuels Production Incentive is expected to enhance the company’s cash flow and returns, while additional BC LCFS Credits will support its sustainable aviation fuel project. The company also completed a scheduled turnaround at its HDRD Complex, with plans to restore full capacity by December 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.

Tidewater Renewables Reports Improved Q3 2025 Results and Anticipates Benefits from New Biofuels Incentive

Tidewater Renewables Ltd. reported a net loss of $1.0 million for the third quarter of 2025, a significant improvement from the $367.1 million loss in the same period last year. The company’s Adjusted EBITDA increased by 21% year-over-year, driven by higher contributions from its joint venture with Rimrock Cattle Company Ltd. The Canadian government’s new $370 million Biofuels Production Incentive is expected to benefit Tidewater Renewables, enhancing cash flow and returns. Additionally, the company completed a scheduled turnaround at its renewable diesel and hydrogen complex, although it faced a short unplanned outage due to equipment issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LCFS) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater Renewables Ltd. stock, see the TSE:LCFS Stock Forecast page.