Keyera Corp. (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$10.32B
• Dividend Yield: 4.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: -4.09%
• EPS Growth: -3.57%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,005
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 229,282,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,043,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,197,989
• PEG Ratio: 1.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$52.71
• Price Target Upside: 17.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: C$46.00 ▲(2.24% Upside)

Keyera Corp. has a solid financial foundation with strong profitability and effective equity utilization. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting margin growth and sustainability achievements, boosts the score. However, technical indicators and valuation concerns, along with challenges in revenue growth and cash flow, moderate the overall score.

Positive Factors

Fee-for-Service Margin Growth

The growth in fee-for-service margins indicates strong demand and operational efficiency, which can lead to sustained profitability and competitive advantage in the midstream sector.

Sustainability Achievements

Achieving sustainability targets ahead of schedule enhances Keyera's reputation and aligns with global energy transition trends, potentially attracting more environmentally-conscious partners and investors.

Contracting and Project Advancements

Securing substantial new contracts and advancing major projects on time and budget strengthens Keyera's market position and ensures future revenue streams, supporting long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Declining revenue growth poses a risk to long-term financial health, potentially impacting Keyera's ability to invest in new projects and maintain competitive pricing.

Cash Flow Management Issues

Challenges in cash flow management could limit Keyera's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, impacting its financial flexibility and resilience.

Marketing Segment Underperformance

Underperformance in the Marketing segment indicates potential volatility and risk in revenue streams, which could affect overall profitability and strategic planning.

Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keyera Corp. engages in the energy infrastructure business in Canada. The company operates through Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing segments. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate the economic components primarily natural gas liquids; and provides condensate handling services. This segment has approximately 4,400 kilometers of gathering pipelines; and holds interests in 12 active gas plants in Alberta. The Liquids Infrastructure segment provides gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, liquids blending, and terminalling services for natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil through a network of facilities that include underground NGL storage caverns, above ground storage tanks, NGL fractionation and de-ethanization facilities, pipelines, rail and truck terminals, NGL blending facilities, and the Alberta EnviroFuels facility. This segment also produces iso-octane. The Marketing segment engages in the marketing of propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane, as well as liquids blending activities. The company was formerly known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund and changed its name to Keyera Corp. in January 2011. Keyera Corp. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Keyera Corp. generates revenue primarily through its midstream services, which include natural gas processing, transportation, and storage. The company earns income from fee-based contracts with producers, where it charges for processing and transporting natural gas. Key revenue streams include processing fees from its natural gas plants, transportation fees from its pipeline system, and revenue from the sale of by-products such as natural gas liquids. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other energy companies and long-term contracts with producers help to stabilize and diversify Keyera's earnings. The company also benefits from its operational efficiencies and scale, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing and enhance profitability.

Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keyera Corp. demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and operational efficiency. However, recent revenue decline and cash flow challenges pose risks. Continued focus on revenue growth and cash flow management will be crucial for sustaining financial stability.

Income Statement

Keyera Corp. shows a stable income statement with a consistent gross profit margin around 15% over the years, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 7.3% in the TTM, reflecting better profitability. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative recently, which is a concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36 in the TTM, indicating a balanced leverage. Return on equity has improved to 18.7%, showcasing effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which limits a full assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.29, indicating potential cash flow constraints. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.72, suggesting decent cash generation relative to profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.09B	7.14B	7.05B	7.06B	4.98B	3.01B
Gross Profit	1.25B	1.39B	1.43B	1.18B	1.05B	940.54M
EBITDA	1.12B	1.16B	1.24B	1.02B	893.99M	816.92M
Net Income	430.98M	486.63M	424.03M	328.29M	324.21M	62.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.36B	8.76B	8.78B	8.57B	8.13B	7.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.80B	118.44M	20.09M	-209.40M	15.94M	2.90M
Total Debt	6.62B	3.90B	4.29B	3.90B	3.70B	3.43B
Total Liabilities	10.56B	5.92B	6.00B	5.75B	5.47B	4.80B
Stockholders Equity	2.80B	2.83B	2.78B	2.82B	2.66B	2.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	546.66M	1.01B	272.80M	29.40M	67.21M	27.84M
Operating Cash Flow	800.90M	1.27B	975.49M	925.33M	583.84M	688.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-249.85M	-235.31M	-819.71M	-843.92M	-397.12M	-748.31M
Financing Cash Flow	2.22B	-935.65M	-134.26M	-100.65M	-173.85M	53.80M

Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 44.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.42, above the 50-day MA of 43.28, and above the 200-day MA of 42.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEY.

Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	70 Outperform	C$31.43B	19.28	10.22%	5.44%	2.81%	-14.92%
GEI	68 Neutral	$4.24B	28.10	16.47%	6.61%	-12.18%	-29.17%
TPZ	68 Neutral	C$4.21B	74.84	4.75%	4.91%	6.52%	-13.92%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
KEY	64 Neutral	C$10.32B	23.92	15.28%	4.81%	-4.09%	-3.57%
ALA	64 Neutral	C$12.77B	16.43	9.01%	2.99%	-0.68%	49.61%
TWM	43 Neutral	C$126.34M	-1.48	-33.62%	―	-23.30%	76.16%

Keyera Corp. Corporate Events

Keyera Adds Veteran Energy Executive Renee Zemljak to Board of Directors

Keyera Corp. has appointed veteran energy executive Renee Zemljak to its Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2026, adding more than three decades of experience in North American energy markets and midstream operations. Zemljak’s background in commodity risk management, midstream infrastructure development, M&A-driven portfolio optimization, capital allocation discipline, and organizational transformation is expected to strengthen Keyera’s strategic oversight and support its ongoing efforts to create value and enhance governance as it competes in the evolving North American energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Hold with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Reports Q3 2025 Results and Achieves Emissions Target Early

Keyera Corp. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a year-over-year growth in fee-for-service realized margins, driven by increased throughput and utilization across its integrated system. Despite a decrease in the Marketing segment’s realized margin due to lower liquids blending contributions and reduced condensate import volumes, Keyera maintains confidence in its long-term marketing outlook. The company also achieved a significant milestone by meeting its 2025 GHG emissions intensity reduction target ahead of schedule. Additionally, Keyera finalized financing for its acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL business, with the transaction expected to close in early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend for 2025

Keyera Corp. announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.54 per common share for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on December 31, 2025, to shareholders of record on December 15, 2025. This announcement underscores Keyera’s commitment to delivering value to its shareholders, reflecting its stable financial performance and strategic positioning within the energy infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Completes Consent Solicitation for Hybrid Notes

Keyera Corp. has successfully completed its consent solicitation for its outstanding hybrid notes, receiving strong support from noteholders. This approval allows for amendments to the indentures governing the notes, resulting in the exchange of the 2019 and 2021 Notes for new notes with similar economic terms but without automatic conversion provisions. This alignment of hybrid instruments is expected to maintain consistent credit ratings and strengthen Keyera’s financial positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Schedules Q3 2025 Results Release and Conference Call

Keyera Corp. announced the release of its third quarter 2025 financial results scheduled for November 14, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.

Keyera Corp. Seeks Amendments for Hybrid Notes

Keyera Corp. has initiated a consent solicitation process to amend the terms of its outstanding hybrid notes, aiming to align them with its most recent hybrid securities. This move is expected to standardize the treatment of its hybrid notes, potentially impacting their credit rating positively, and requires approval from a significant majority of noteholders by the end of October 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEY) stock is a Buy with a C$49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keyera Corp. stock, see the TSE:KEY Stock Forecast page.