Keyera Corp. (TSE:KEY)
TSX:KEY
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Keyera Corp.
(TSX:KEY)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
C$55.00
▲(10.98% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by financial risk from higher leverage and softer 2025 cash-flow/revenue trends, partially offset by strong technical uptrend and a constructive earnings-call outlook (fee-for-service strength and growth/M&A). Valuation is mixed: a solid dividend yield helps, but the higher P/E reduces upside support.
Positive Factors
Fee-for-service segment strength
Sustained growth in fee-for-service margins reflects higher throughput and plant contributions (Wapiti, Simonette). Fee-based cash flows are structurally more predictable than commodity-exposed earnings, supporting durable EBITDA and lowering revenue volatility over a multi‑year horizon.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A sharp step-up in leverage constrains balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. Elevated debt amplifies downside risk if midstream cash flows soften, limiting the company's ability to fund growth, weather outages, or sustain dividends without additional capital actions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fee-for-service segment strength
Sustained growth in fee-for-service margins reflects higher throughput and plant contributions (Wapiti, Simonette). Fee-based cash flows are structurally more predictable than commodity-exposed earnings, supporting durable EBITDA and lowering revenue volatility over a multi‑year horizon.
Read all positive factors
Keyera Corp. (KEY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$12.15B
Dividend Yield4.81%
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.9
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth-6.30%
EPS Growth-11.17%
CountryCA
Employees1,005
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.88
Shares Outstanding229,282,820
10 Day Avg. Volume1,043,890
30 Day Avg. Volume1,197,989
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio20.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$55.78Price Target Upside12.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$8.34B
Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keyera Corp. engages in the energy infrastructure business in Canada. The company operates through Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing segments. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering p...
How the Company Makes Money
Keyera Corp. generates revenue primarily through its midstream services, which include natural gas processing, transportation, and storage. The company earns income from fee-based contracts with producers, where it charges for processing and trans...
Keyera Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: record fee-for-service results, disciplined capital allocation, strategic sanctions of high-quality growth projects, and a transformational acquisition that should expand scale and fee-based cash flow. Offsetting these positives are a substantial year-over-year decline in Marketing realized margin (≈ -38%), an unplanned AEF outage with an estimated ~$110 million impact and short-term throughput variability. Management emphasized conservative dividend policy, low leverage, and reinvestment in fee-for-service growth. On balance, the highlights — including strong fee-based performance and strategic M&A — outweigh the lowlights, which are significant but appear manageable and being actively addressed.Positive Updates
Strong Overall Financial Results
Annual adjusted EBITDA (ex-deal/integration costs) of $1.16 billion; distributable cash flow of $767 million ($3.35 per share); annual net earnings of $432 million, reflecting stable performance and strong cash generation.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Marketing Realized Margin
Marketing realized margin fell to $300 million from $485 million last year, a decline of $185 million (approximately -38%), primarily due to lower premiums and reduced volumes for iso-octane sales. Results were within the top end of revised guidance but below long-term base expectations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Overall Financial Results
Annual adjusted EBITDA (ex-deal/integration costs) of $1.16 billion; distributable cash flow of $767 million ($3.35 per share); annual net earnings of $432 million, reflecting stable performance and strong cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Keyera provided 2026 financial guidance and key metrics: growth capital $400–$475 million, maintenance capital $140–$160 million, and cash taxes $60–$70 million, with Marketing segment realized margin guidance to be issued mid‑May; management also reiterated an approximate $110 million adverse impact to 2026 results from the unplanned AEF outage (facility expected back to full production in May). For 2025 results and targets that frame guidance, annual adjusted EBITDA (ex‑Plains deal/integration costs) was $1.16 billion, distributable cash flow was $767 million (or $3.35/share), net earnings $432 million, and segment realized margins were G&P $439 million, Liquids Infrastructure $593 million and Marketing $300 million; Keyera expects fee‑for‑service EBITDA to grow ~7–8% to 2027, targets dividends with a conservative 50–70% payout range, seeks 10–15% returns on stand‑alone infrastructure projects, and will provide pro‑forma guidance for the Plains acquisition after the anticipated close around the end of Q1 2026.Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.85B | 7.14B | 7.05B | 7.06B | 4.98B |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 1.39B | 1.43B | 1.18B | 1.05B |
| EBITDA | 1.19B | 1.16B | 1.24B | 1.02B | 893.99M |
| Net Income | 432.33M | 486.63M | 424.03M | 328.29M | 324.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.05B | 8.76B | 8.78B | 8.57B | 8.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.33B | 118.44M | 20.09M | -209.40M | 15.94M |
| Total Debt | 6.30B | 3.90B | 4.29B | 3.90B | 3.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.29B | 5.92B | 6.00B | 5.75B | 5.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.76B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.82B | 2.66B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 492.01M | 1.01B | 272.80M | 29.40M | 67.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 774.54M | 1.27B | 975.49M | 925.33M | 583.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -465.43M | -235.31M | -819.71M | -843.92M | -397.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.91B | -935.65M | -134.26M | -100.65M | -173.85M |
Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis
Neutral
49.56
Price Trends
51.83
Negative
47.73
Positive
45.16
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.61
Positive
36.71
Neutral
12.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 49.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.54, below the 50-day MA of 51.83, and above the 200-day MA of 45.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:KEY.
Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$36.85B | 15.53 | 9.91% | 5.44% | 5.05% | -11.22% | |
70 Outperform | C$4.87B | 13.77 | 9.77% | 4.91% | 8.31% | 72.30% | |
69 Neutral | C$16.32B | 25.03 | 8.74% | 2.99% | 1.11% | -13.38% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$5.19B | 24.92 | 22.62% | 6.61% | -9.26% | 28.92% | |
61 Neutral | C$12.15B | 27.94 | 15.39% | 4.81% | -6.30% | -11.17% | |
48 Neutral | C$321.19M | -0.95 | -49.98% | ― | -19.63% | -319.36% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
52.97
12.38
30.51%
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Keyera Corp. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Keyera Posts Record Fee-Based Margins as Transformative NGL Expansion Advances
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Keyera reported 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1.13 billion, or $1.16 billion excluding transaction costs, with record annual fee-for-service margins from its Gathering and Processing and Liquids Infrastructure segments, even as weaker Marketing results...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Keyera Declares Q1 2026 Dividend, Underscoring Stable Midstream Cash Flows
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Keyera Corp., a Canadian energy infrastructure company specializing in natural gas and NGL services across North America, runs a largely fee-for-service business that includes gathering, processing, liquids handling, iso-octane production and a le...
Financial Disclosures
Keyera Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2025 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 29, 2026
Keyera Corp. has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for before markets open on February 12, 2026, followed by a same-day conference call and live webcast for investors and stakeholders. The planned dis...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Keyera Faces Extended Alberta Envirofuels Outage, Brings Forward Major Turnaround
Negative
Jan 19, 2026
Keyera Corp. has reported an extended unplanned outage at its Alberta Envirofuels iso-octane facility after identifying premature failure in long-life equipment that had been replaced about three years ago, with the plant now expected to return to...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Keyera Adds Veteran Energy Executive Renee Zemljak to Board of Directors
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
Keyera Corp. has appointed veteran energy executive Renee Zemljak to its Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2026, adding more than three decades of experience in North American energy markets and midstream operations. Zemljak’s backgro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.