Keyera Corp. (TSE:KEY)
TSX:KEY
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Keyera Corp.
(TSX:KEY)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
C$59.00
▲(19.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by adequate but risk-tilted fundamentals—steady margins and meaningful free cash flow, but higher leverage and weaker/volatile earnings. Technicals add support with a clear uptrend versus key moving averages, while valuation is mixed (good yield but high P/E). Earnings call tone is generally constructive on fee-based growth and strategic expansion, tempered by the AEF outage impact and weaker Marketing results.
Positive Factors
Fee-for-service diversified midstream model
Keyera's core business collects contracted fees across G&P, fractionation, storage and pipelines. The predominance of take-or-pay and capacity-style arrangements yields predictable, durable cash flows that reduce commodity exposure and support capital spending, dividends and debt reduction over multi-year horizons.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage rising to multi-year highs constrains financial flexibility and increases interest and refinancing risk. Higher debt levels reduce the company's ability to absorb commodity or operational shocks, limit opportunistic investments, and make achieving target payout and deleveraging goals more challenging over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fee-for-service diversified midstream model
Keyera's core business collects contracted fees across G&P, fractionation, storage and pipelines. The predominance of take-or-pay and capacity-style arrangements yields predictable, durable cash flows that reduce commodity exposure and support capital spending, dividends and debt reduction over multi-year horizons.
Read all positive factors
Keyera Corp. (KEY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$13.38B
Dividend Yield4.81%
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth-11.59%
EPS Growth-67.03%
CountryCA
Employees1,005
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding229,282,820
10 Day Avg. Volume1,043,890
30 Day Avg. Volume1,197,989
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio20.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$58.91Price Target Upside18.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$8.35B
Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keyera Corp. engages in the energy infrastructure business in Canada. The company operates through Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing segments. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering p...
How the Company Makes Money
Keyera makes money by charging fees and earning margins across multiple midstream segments that move and upgrade hydrocarbons from producers to end markets. (1) Gathering & Processing: It generates revenue by providing services to upstream produce...
Keyera Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: record fee-for-service results, disciplined capital allocation, strategic sanctions of high-quality growth projects, and a transformational acquisition that should expand scale and fee-based cash flow. Offsetting these positives are a substantial year-over-year decline in Marketing realized margin (≈ -38%), an unplanned AEF outage with an estimated ~$110 million impact and short-term throughput variability. Management emphasized conservative dividend policy, low leverage, and reinvestment in fee-for-service growth. On balance, the highlights — including strong fee-based performance and strategic M&A — outweigh the lowlights, which are significant but appear manageable and being actively addressed.Positive Updates
Strong Overall Financial Results
Annual adjusted EBITDA (ex-deal/integration costs) of $1.16 billion; distributable cash flow of $767 million ($3.35 per share); annual net earnings of $432 million, reflecting stable performance and strong cash generation.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Marketing Realized Margin
Marketing realized margin fell to $300 million from $485 million last year, a decline of $185 million (approximately -38%), primarily due to lower premiums and reduced volumes for iso-octane sales. Results were within the top end of revised guidance but below long-term base expectations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Overall Financial Results
Annual adjusted EBITDA (ex-deal/integration costs) of $1.16 billion; distributable cash flow of $767 million ($3.35 per share); annual net earnings of $432 million, reflecting stable performance and strong cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Keyera provided 2026 financial guidance and key metrics: growth capital $400–$475 million, maintenance capital $140–$160 million, and cash taxes $60–$70 million, with Marketing segment realized margin guidance to be issued mid‑May; management also reiterated an approximate $110 million adverse impact to 2026 results from the unplanned AEF outage (facility expected back to full production in May). For 2025 results and targets that frame guidance, annual adjusted EBITDA (ex‑Plains deal/integration costs) was $1.16 billion, distributable cash flow was $767 million (or $3.35/share), net earnings $432 million, and segment realized margins were G&P $439 million, Liquids Infrastructure $593 million and Marketing $300 million; Keyera expects fee‑for‑service EBITDA to grow ~7–8% to 2027, targets dividends with a conservative 50–70% payout range, seeks 10–15% returns on stand‑alone infrastructure projects, and will provide pro‑forma guidance for the Plains acquisition after the anticipated close around the end of Q1 2026.Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.59B | 6.85B | 7.14B | 7.05B | 7.06B | 4.98B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 1.01B | 1.39B | 1.43B | 1.18B | 1.05B |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 1.19B | 1.16B | 1.24B | 1.02B | 893.99M |
| Net Income | 180.03M | 432.33M | 486.63M | 424.03M | 328.29M | 324.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.23B | 13.05B | 8.76B | 8.78B | 8.57B | 8.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.48B | 2.33B | 118.44M | 20.09M | -209.40M | 15.94M |
| Total Debt | 6.29B | 6.30B | 3.90B | 4.29B | 3.90B | 3.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.70B | 10.29B | 5.92B | 6.00B | 5.75B | 5.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.52B | 2.76B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.82B | 2.66B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 557.45M | 492.01M | 1.01B | 272.80M | 29.40M | 67.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 931.24M | 774.54M | 1.27B | 975.49M | 925.33M | 583.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -448.56M | -465.43M | -235.31M | -819.71M | -843.92M | -397.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.91B | 1.91B | -935.65M | -134.26M | -100.65M | -173.85M |
Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis
Positive
49.56
Price Trends
52.54
Positive
49.65
Positive
46.32
Positive
Market Momentum
1.51
Negative
71.29
Negative
96.16
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.50, below the 50-day MA of 52.54, and above the 200-day MA of 46.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.29 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEY.
Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$39.38B | 18.16 | 9.98% | 5.44% | -5.92% | -12.92% | |
72 Outperform | C$5.14B | 35.11 | 10.95% | 4.91% | 4.94% | 93.71% | |
69 Neutral | C$16.51B | 25.03 | 5.92% | 2.99% | 1.11% | -13.38% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$13.38B | -25.29 | 6.59% | 4.81% | -11.59% | -67.03% | |
54 Neutral | C$4.98B | -916.52 | 16.60% | 6.61% | -4.83% | -9.94% | |
50 Neutral | C$379.57M | -1.78 | -54.09% | ― | -7.72% | -127.37% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
57.85
17.76
44.30%
TSE:PPL
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19.04
38.93%
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TSE:ALA
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17.02
46.61%
TSE:TWM
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure
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343.19%
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
33.25
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39.79%
Keyera Corp. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Keyera Delays Closing of Plains Canada NGL Deal to May 2026
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
Keyera Corp. has pushed back the expected closing date for its acquisition of Plains All American’s Canadian natural gas liquids business, citing ongoing regulatory review. The deal, originally targeted for completion around the end of the f...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Keyera Delays Closing of Plains Canada NGL Deal to May 2026
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
Keyera Corp. has revised the expected closing date of its acquisition of Plains All American’s Canadian natural gas liquids business, citing ongoing regulatory review. The transaction, previously anticipated to close around the end of the fi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.