Jaguar Mining (JAG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$682.94M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 193.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.07
• Revenue Growth: -5.94%
• EPS Growth: -153.35%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,105
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 85,261,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 212,785
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 193,901
• PEG Ratio: 0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$6.75
• Price Target Upside: 11.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: C$8.50 ▲(40.96% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by the company's strong technical indicators, suggesting positive market momentum. However, this is offset by financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and profitability issues, as well as a negative valuation due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Low financial leverage

A very low debt-to-equity ratio (0.038) gives Jaguar durable financial flexibility to fund operations or development without large interest burdens. Over 2-6 months this reduces bankruptcy risk, preserves liquidity during gold-price swings, and supports capital allocation choices.

High gross profit margin

A near-50% gross margin indicates structurally efficient extraction and processing costs. This margin buffer helps absorb operating disruptions or commodity price declines, supporting mid-term cash generation and the economics of existing mines and development projects.

Operating producing mines and development projects

Owning producing mines provides ongoing revenue streams while development projects offer optionality to grow output or replace reserves. This asset base supports continuity of production and the potential to lift volumes and margins over the medium term if projects progress as expected.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and profitability

A sustained decline in revenue and negative net margins signal structural operational or market challenges. Persisting over several quarters this constrains reinvestment, weakens return metrics, and may force cost cutting or asset sales, impairing growth and competitiveness.

Weak cash generation and FCF decline

A 33% drop in free cash flow and OCF below net income indicate poor cash conversion. Over the medium term this limits ability to fund mine development, sustain maintenance capex, and service obligations, increasing reliance on external financing despite low leverage.

High exposure to gold price volatility

Revenue and profitability are structurally tied to the gold price, creating cyclicality and earnings volatility. This dependence complicates planning and capital allocation and can materially reduce cash flows and margins during prolonged price weakness.

Jaguar Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold producing properties in Brazil. Its principal assets include the Turmalina Gold Mine Complex, Caeté Gold Mine Complex, and the Paciência Gold Mine Complex located in the Iron Quadrangle in the state of Minas Gerais. The company also holds an option agreement to acquire a package of 28 exploration tenements. It currently holds 32,000 hectares of mineral rights in Brazil. Jaguar Mining Inc. is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Jaguar Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company operates gold mines that extract ore, which is then processed to produce gold bullion. The revenue model is heavily reliant on the global price of gold, as fluctuations can significantly impact earnings. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold, which is sold to refiners or through direct sales to international markets. Additionally, Jaguar Mining may earn revenue from by-products or secondary minerals extracted during the gold mining process. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships with other mining or exploration companies to enhance its operational efficiency, share resources, or access new technologies, which can further contribute to its profitability.

Jaguar Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Jaguar Mining faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as reflected in negative margins and net income. The balance sheet remains strong with low leverage, but cash flow generation is under pressure. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash flow to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Jaguar Mining's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a negative growth rate of -3.39% in the TTM period. The company is experiencing negative net profit margins and EBIT margins, indicating operational challenges. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 49.90%, suggesting some efficiency in production costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.038, indicating low financial leverage. However, the return on equity is negative in the TTM period, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is solid, showing a healthy proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by -33.04% in the TTM period, which is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, indicating potential cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	139.49M	158.63M	136.53M	142.50M	151.47M	160.25M
Gross Profit	69.60M	59.50M	32.48M	38.10M	60.04M	85.74M
EBITDA	8.89M	35.43M	42.97M	49.70M	53.93M	103.02M
Net Income	-15.11M	-1.29M	15.85M	21.44M	24.05M	72.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	360.61M	345.00M	309.12M	288.13M	259.88M	249.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	62.90M	47.80M	22.04M	25.21M	40.37M	38.91M
Total Debt	9.34M	6.95M	5.84M	7.00M	6.89M	5.78M
Total Liabilities	114.59M	105.46M	68.85M	71.11M	58.58M	60.07M
Stockholders Equity	246.02M	239.53M	240.27M	217.02M	201.29M	189.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.63M	23.76M	-687.00K	-3.40M	10.81M	43.91M
Operating Cash Flow	34.85M	57.35M	36.04M	40.77M	45.04M	78.67M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.91M	-30.68M	-35.78M	-43.72M	-27.00M	-34.75M
Financing Cash Flow	1.94M	-2.74M	-3.45M	-9.78M	-16.30M	-17.17M

Jaguar Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 6.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:JAG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.42, below the 50-day MA of 7.65, and above the 200-day MA of 5.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:JAG.

Jaguar Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MKO	71 Outperform	C$870.09M	23.42	29.30%	―	45.36%	-14.35%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
JAG	56 Neutral	C$682.94M	-29.72	-5.98%	―	-5.94%	-153.35%
OMI	54 Neutral	C$242.74M	35.23	―	―	―	―
BSX	52 Neutral	C$287.18M	-33.33	-47.58%	―	―	32.22%
MAI	48 Neutral	C$608.29M	-7.35	-180.41%	―	119.95%	-79.81%

Jaguar Mining Corporate Events

Jaguar Mining Posts Lower Q4 Output as Pilar Holds Steady and Turmalina Restart Advances

Jaguar Mining reported preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 operating results showing consolidated gold output of 9,356 ounces, all from its Pilar mine, down from a year earlier due to the temporary suspension of Turmalina following a December 2024 incident at the Satinoco dry-stacked facility. Pilar delivered steady production with slightly lower grades as the company prioritized ventilation and exhaust upgrades, strategic development, and increased full-year drilling, while Brazilian regulators have now lifted restrictions on the MTL Complex, allowing Jaguar to progress through its gradual resumption plan at Turmalina and positioning the company for a staged restart and potential production recovery once full operations resume.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:JAG) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jaguar Mining stock, see the TSE:JAG Stock Forecast page.

Jaguar Mining Wins Key Regulatory Nod to Restart Turmalina Operations at MTL Complex

Jaguar Mining has secured approval from Brazil’s National Mining Agency to restart key mining and processing operations at its MTL Complex, including full operations at the Turmalina mine, metallurgical plant, paste fill plant and filtration unit. The decision, which follows the decommissioning of the problematic Satinoco dry-stacked pile and the commissioning of a new tailings facility, is described by management as a major milestone toward restoring planned gold production levels and underpins the company’s emphasis on enhanced safety and responsible mining. Actual resumption of activities still depends on final clearance from the independent Environmental Emergency Office, but Jaguar expects the Turmalina restart to be a turning point that supports its growth strategy for 2026 and beyond, with potential implications for production volumes and its competitive position in Brazil’s Iron Quadrangle gold district.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:JAG) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jaguar Mining stock, see the TSE:JAG Stock Forecast page.

Jaguar Mining Bolsters Senior Team With New CFO and Investor Relations Chief

Jaguar Mining Inc. has strengthened its senior leadership by appointing Daniel Karrqvist as Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary and creating a new Vice President, Investor Relations role filled by Naomi Nemeth, moves aimed at supporting the company’s strategic growth agenda. Karrqvist will oversee all aspects of Jaguar’s financial operations, capital structure and governance, leveraging nearly two decades of international experience in mining, metals and related industries, while Nemeth will build a comprehensive global investor relations program and broaden Jaguar’s shareholder base through targeted outreach to both traditional and non‑traditional investor groups, signaling an intensified focus on capital markets, transparency and shareholder alignment as the company advances its growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:JAG) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jaguar Mining stock, see the TSE:JAG Stock Forecast page.

Jaguar Mining Prepares for Safe Resumption of Operations at MTL Complex

Jaguar Mining Inc. has completed extensive remediation work at its MTL Complex in Minas Gerais, Brazil, following a significant incident that led to the suspension of operations. The company has submitted detailed technical documentation to the National Mining Agency, demonstrating compliance and readiness to resume operations. The resumption is expected to benefit the local economy, generate employment, and enhance the company’s liquidity, while ensuring the safety of employees, the community, and the environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:JAG) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jaguar Mining stock, see the TSE:JAG Stock Forecast page.

Jaguar Mining Begins Drilling at Promising Chamé Target

Jaguar Mining Inc. has commenced drilling at the Chamé target, part of its five-year exploration plan, located near the Santa Isabel mine in Brazil’s Iron Quadrangle. This initiative aims to assess the potential for a near-surface, open-pit operation, leveraging historical mining data and proximity to existing facilities. The drilling program is a significant step in Jaguar’s growth strategy, with early results indicating a promising large-scale mineralized system that could enhance the company’s resource base and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:JAG) stock is a Hold with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jaguar Mining stock, see the TSE:JAG Stock Forecast page.

Jaguar Mining’s Q3 2025 Results Boosted by Strong Gold Prices and Pilar Mine Performance

Jaguar Mining reported solid financial results for the third quarter of 2025, driven by strong gold prices and the performance of its Pilar mine. Despite the temporary suspension of operations at the Turmalina mine, the company achieved a net income of $13.0 million, a significant increase from the previous year, due to higher realized gold prices and strategic cost management. The company also made targeted investments to support future mining operations, reflecting a robust operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:JAG) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jaguar Mining stock, see the TSE:JAG Stock Forecast page.