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Heliostar Metals (TSE:HSTR)
:HSTR

Heliostar Metals (HSTR) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:HSTR

Heliostar Metals

(HSTR)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$3.50
â–²(8.36% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by the improved financial profile (profitability step-change and low leverage), supported by constructive technical momentum. Positive project and operational catalysts add support, while below-ideal cash conversion and the sustainability of the recent earnings jump keep the score from rating higher.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Near-zero debt gives long-term financial flexibility for a development miner: it reduces refinancing risk, preserves capacity to fund exploration or permitting milestones, and allows management to pursue partnerships or capex without immediate debt servicing pressure, bolstering resilience.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Sustained positive free cash flow and strong growth signal improving cash generation from operations rather than financing. Over 2–6 months this supports funding of development programs, reduces the need for dilutive capital raises, and underpins value-creating project advancement.
Project and Permitting Progress
Advancing technical studies and permitting represents structural de‑risking: NI 43‑101 work and PEA/FEAS progress increase project economics clarity, improve partner/seller optionality, and materially raise the probability of transitioning from explorer to developer over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Earnings are not fully converting to cash, exposing reported profitability to working‑capital swings or non‑cash gains. Over several months this can stress funding for drilling/permits, make results more volatile, and heighten the risk of earnings adjustments or non‑recurring drivers.
Earnings Sustainability Risk
A rapid profitability step‑change after prolonged losses raises persistence concerns: margins may reflect one‑off items or early production quirks. Over 2–6 months, reversion or commodity price swings could materially affect earnings, complicating forecasting and return expectations.
Small Team / Execution Scale Risk
A compact workforce and explorer/developer mandate imply execution depends heavily on a small management and technical team. This elevates operational and delivery risk for drilling, permitting, and project execution, and increases the likelihood of needing external partners or capital raises.

Heliostar Metals (HSTR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Heliostar Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHeliostar Metals Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in North America. It explores for gold and silver deposits. The company holds 100% interests in the Unga Gold project that covers an area of 240 square kilometers located in Alaska, the United States; and the Cumaro project in Mexico. It also has an option to acquire 100% interests in the Oso Negro and La Lola projects in Mexico. The company was formerly known as Redstar Gold Corp. and changed its name to Heliostar Metals Ltd. in October 2020. Heliostar Metals Ltd. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyHeliostar Metals makes money primarily through the exploration and potential development of mineral properties with a focus on gold. The company's revenue model is centered around increasing the value of its exploration assets through successful drilling programs, resource delineation, and strategic project advancements. Key revenue streams include raising capital through equity financing to fund exploration activities, and potentially monetizing assets through joint ventures, partnerships, or selling interests in projects to larger mining companies. Significant partnerships with other mining companies or investors can contribute to its earnings by providing the necessary capital or expertise to advance exploration projects.

Heliostar Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong turnaround with sharp TTM revenue growth and very high reported profitability, supported by a conservative, near-zero-debt balance sheet. The main offset is quality/durability risk: earnings have shifted quickly from years of losses and cash conversion is weaker than net income (OCF below net income).
Income Statement
74
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp step-change in scale and profitability, with revenue up 38.0% and very strong reported margins (gross margin ~51% and net margin ~57%). This is a major improvement versus prior years (2021–2024) that showed no revenue and meaningful losses. The key weakness is volatility/visibility: the business moved from multiple years of losses to very high profitability in a short period, which can be less predictable in the gold space and may include one-off or non-recurring drivers.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The balance sheet is conservatively financed with essentially no leverage (TTM total debt of 0 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0; annual 2025 debt-to-equity is still minimal at ~0.003). Equity and assets have expanded substantially versus 2024, and returns on equity are strong in the latest periods (TTM ~72% and annual 2025 ~34%), reflecting the jump in earnings. The main watch-out is that these elevated returns may be difficult to sustain if earnings normalize, given the company’s historically loss-making profile.
Cash Flow
61
Positive
Cash generation has improved materially: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive (~$18.6M) and free cash flow is positive (~$17.0M), with very strong free cash flow growth (+192.7%). Free cash flow is also broadly in line with reported profit (free cash flow is ~0.91x net income). The key weakness is conversion: operating cash flow covers only ~0.60x net income in TTM (and ~0.29x in annual 2025), suggesting earnings are not fully translating into operating cash yet and could be working-capital/quality-of-earnings sensitive.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue97.19M36.57M0.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit49.98M18.58M-186.69K-28.84K-52.80K-9.96K
EBITDA76.18M31.11M-17.77M-3.60M-11.40M-8.91M
Net Income55.56M21.04M-19.93M-4.53M-12.46M-8.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets129.88M117.23M28.36M33.69M12.16M13.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments34.58M27.18M752.89K4.16M1.31M2.90M
Total Debt0.00212.06K0.000.000.000.00
Total Liabilities62.38M55.68M5.14M3.95M1.88M453.62K
Stockholders Equity67.50M61.54M23.22M29.74M10.28M12.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow16.98M5.26M-14.91M-5.73M-10.47M-8.11M
Operating Cash Flow18.61M5.85M-14.80M-5.61M-10.12M-7.83M
Investing Cash Flow-2.31M-1.27M-85.75K-14.17M1.06M2.20M
Financing Cash Flow21.46M22.01M11.51M22.73M9.00M6.81M

Heliostar Metals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.23
Price Trends
50DMA
2.69
Positive
100DMA
2.27
Positive
200DMA
1.76
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.17
Negative
RSI
70.41
Negative
STOCH
72.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:HSTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.89, above the 50-day MA of 2.69, and above the 200-day MA of 1.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:HSTR.

Heliostar Metals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
C$841.59M9.60――――
71
Outperform
C$928.39M24.0129.30%―45.36%-14.35%
65
Neutral
C$742.56M-29.47-81.62%――18.96%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
56
Neutral
C$774.17M-31.35-5.98%―-5.94%-153.35%
52
Neutral
C$1.28B-52.32-10.64%――54.00%
47
Neutral
C$1.08B-33.48-11.85%――50.54%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:HSTR
Heliostar Metals
3.23
2.45
314.10%
TSE:FF
First Mining Gold
0.76
0.63
462.96%
TSE:MKO
Mako Mining Corp
10.25
6.49
172.61%
TSE:PRB
Probe Gold
3.64
1.71
88.60%
TSE:JAG
Jaguar Mining
8.45
5.88
228.79%
TSE:AMRQ
Amaroq Ltd.
2.71
0.69
34.16%

Heliostar Metals Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Heliostar Files NI 43-101 Prefeasibility Study for Cerro del Gallo Project in Mexico
Positive
Jan 26, 2026

Heliostar Metals has filed a National Instrument 43-101 compliant Prefeasibility Study Technical Report for its Cerro del Gallo gold project in Guanajuato, Mexico, formalizing an important step in advancing the asset’s development. Prepared by Kappes, Cassiday & Associates and now available on Canadian securities and company websites, the study supports Heliostar’s broader strategy of building a pipeline of Mexican gold projects that can underpin its ambition to become a mid-tier producer, potentially enhancing its project portfolio quality and visibility among investors and industry partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Heliostar Sets 2026 Output Guidance and Funds $27 Million Growth Program From Operations
Positive
Jan 13, 2026

Heliostar Metals has issued its 2026 guidance, forecasting consolidated gold production of 50,000–55,000 ounces and 290,000–320,000 ounces of silver, with by-product cash costs of $1,850–$1,950 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs of $2,025–$2,125 per ounce. The company plans to fund a US$27 million exploration and growth program from operating cash flow, including pre-stripping for the Veta Madre open-pit expansion at La Colorada, continued steady-state output at the recently restarted San Agustin mine, and further advancement of the Ana Paula feasibility study and access decline, positioning the business for higher production and potential reserve growth from 2027 onward despite cost pressures from inflation and contractor expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Heliostar Meets 2025 Output Targets and Ends Year With US$41M Cash, No Debt
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

Heliostar Metals reported 2025 production of 34,098 gold equivalent ounces, comprising 32,990 ounces of gold and 80,527 ounces of silver, meeting its full-year guidance range. The company ended 2025 with a preliminary cash balance of US$41 million and no debt, underpinning plans to ramp up output in 2026 following the successful restart of the La Colorada and San Agustin mines, while advancing the Ana Paula project through feasibility work as it pursues a long-term scale-up toward significantly higher annual production.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Heliostar Files NI 43-101 PEA for Ana Paula Gold Project in Mexico
Positive
Dec 22, 2025

Heliostar Metals has filed a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) technical report for its Ana Paula Project in Guerrero, Mexico, prepared under National Instrument 43-101 standards by M3 Engineering & Technology Corp. with JDS Energy & Mining as a subcontractor. The filing of this NI 43-101-compliant PEA marks a key technical and regulatory milestone for Ana Paula, providing an economic framework for the project and reinforcing Heliostar’s broader strategy to build scale in Mexico and progress toward its goal of becoming a mid-tier gold producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$5.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Heliostar Restarts San Agustin Mine to Boost Gold Output and Cash Flow
Positive
Dec 18, 2025

Heliostar Metals has restarted mining, crushing, conveying and ore stacking operations at its San Agustin gold mine in Durango, Mexico, following receipt of final government approvals and completion of key site works including surface access rights, power line adjustments and recommissioning of a 30,000-tonne-per-day crushing circuit. The company expects the current reserve at San Agustin to yield 45,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,990 per ounce, generating an estimated US$40 million in cash flow at prevailing gold prices, while an ongoing 10,000–15,000 metre drilling program targeting oxide extensions could extend mine life; a recent technical report outlines a 1.2-year mine plan with a probable reserve of 68,000 ounces and robust project economics, supporting Heliostar’s strategy to increase production and enhance per-share value heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$5.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Heliostar Metals Advances La Colorada Expansion with Positive Permitting Progress
Positive
Dec 15, 2025

Heliostar Metals Ltd. has acknowledged positive media reports regarding the progress of its La Colorada expansion project in Sonora, Mexico. The company has completed necessary submissions for a permit to expand the Veta Madre open pit and is expecting formal documentation to confirm the permit in Q1 2026, which will allow the restart of open-pit mining. This development is a significant step in Heliostar’s strategy to enhance its production capabilities and strengthen its position in the gold mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$5.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Heliostar Metals Unveils Promising Prefeasibility Study for Cerro del Gallo Project
Positive
Dec 11, 2025

Heliostar Metals has announced a positive prefeasibility study for its Cerro del Gallo project in Mexico, highlighting strong economic potential with a post-tax NPV of $424 million and an IRR of 33.1% at a base gold price of $2,300 per ounce. The study outlines a 15.3-year mine life with significant expansion potential, positioning the project as a key component in Heliostar’s growth strategy to achieve 300,000 ounces of annual gold equivalent production by the end of the decade.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$3.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Heliostar Metals Appoints James Perry as New Chairman Amid Growth Plans
Positive
Dec 1, 2025

Heliostar Metals Ltd. has appointed James Perry as the new Chairman, succeeding Jacques Vaillancourt. Perry, who brings over 17 years of global mining and resources experience, aims to guide Heliostar towards becoming a leading gold producer in the Americas. His extensive background includes roles at Sweetwater Royalties and Newcrest Mining, where he managed significant transactions and strategic initiatives. This leadership change aligns with Heliostar’s growth ambitions, as the company targets a production goal of 500,000 ounces per year by the end of the decade. Additionally, Heliostar announced the issuance of stock options and restricted share units to its directors, officers, and consultants as part of its equity incentive plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$2.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Heliostar Metals Strengthens Investor Relations with New Marketing Agreement
Positive
Dec 1, 2025

Heliostar Metals Ltd. has entered into a new marketing agreement with GRA Enterprises LLC DBA National Inflation Association to enhance its investor relations and communication services. This agreement, which follows a similar unannounced agreement earlier in the year, aims to bolster the company’s visibility through website features and related services. These agreements are pending approval by the TSX Venture Exchange and reflect Heliostar’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its market presence and investor engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$2.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Heliostar Metals Updates Technical Report for La Colorada Mine
Positive
Nov 28, 2025

Heliostar Metals Ltd. has filed an updated technical report for its La Colorada mine in Sonora, Mexico, prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 standards. This report is a significant step in the company’s efforts to enhance its mining operations and solidify its position in the gold production industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$2.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Heliostar Metals Expands Ana Paula Drill Program Following Promising Gold Intercepts
Positive
Nov 24, 2025

Heliostar Metals Ltd. has announced additional results from its drill program at the Ana Paula project in Guerrero, Mexico, highlighting significant gold grades over wide intercepts. The company plans to expand the drilling program by 33% to 20,000 meters to support a feasibility study and explore new targets, aiming to increase resource confidence and potentially lower costs, which could enhance project margins and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$2.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Heliostar Metals Achieves Record Q3 Production and Strong Financial Performance
Positive
Nov 21, 2025

Heliostar Metals reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with record production of 9,165 gold equivalent ounces and operating income of $14.2 million. The company is on track to meet its annual production guidance and has maintained a strong cash position, enabling significant reinvestment in its projects. The recent Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Ana Paula project indicates potential for substantial cash flow, supporting Heliostar’s goal to become a mid-tier producer by the end of the decade.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$2.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Heliostar Metals Unveils Promising PEA for Ana Paula Project
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Heliostar Metals has announced a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for its Ana Paula underground project, highlighting strong economic potential with a post-tax NPV of $426 million at a $2,400/oz gold price. The project is expected to produce 874,700 ounces of gold over nine years, with a low average all-in sustaining cost, positioning it competitively in the global market. The company plans to accelerate development steps, including a feasibility study and exploration drilling, to bring the project into production by 2028, potentially enhancing its market position and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$2.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Heliostar Metals Announces Board Changes and Strategic Growth Plans
Positive
Oct 31, 2025

Heliostar Metals Ltd. announced significant changes to its board at the upcoming Annual General & Special Meeting, with Chairman Jacques Vaillancourt and director Ken Booth stepping down. James Perry, with extensive mining experience, is proposed to succeed Vaillancourt as Chairman. The company aims to expand its production to 500,000 ounces annually by the end of the decade, reflecting its strategic growth and operational strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:HSTR) stock is a Buy with a C$2.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heliostar Metals stock, see the TSE:HSTR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025