Calibre Mining (CXB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.70B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 54.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: 6.13%
• EPS Growth: -76.71%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,322
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Mining
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 852,535,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,012,296
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,100,805
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.13
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 5.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$3.63
• Price Target Upside: 14.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Calibre Mining is positioned well for growth with strong revenue and operational efficiency. However, challenges with cash flow and high valuation impact its attractiveness. Positive corporate events and a favorable earnings call offer support, though caution is advised regarding debt management and exploration dependencies.

Positive Factors

Financial Position

The company is in a strong position to finish the build with no additional financing due to having a cash balance of US$131.1M.

Production Performance

Q4/24 production beat the top end of revised annual guidance leading to annual production that exceeded expectations.

Project Development

Valentine mine project de-risking has led to a stock re-rating.

Negative Factors

Analyst Recommendations

Analyst downgrades the stock to Hold as it is now viewed as fairly valued with insufficient return to target.

Financial Costs

Cash burn was higher than expected, resulting in a cash burn of $26M.

Production Guidance

Calibre has lowered its 2024 full year production guidance to 230,000-240,000 ounces of gold, marking an 18% decrease from the midpoint of the company’s original guidance.

Calibre Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Calibre Mining Corp (CXB) is a Canadian-based gold mining and exploration company with a portfolio of high-quality assets in Central America, primarily in Nicaragua. The company's mission is to unlock value through responsible mining practices and the sustainable development of its projects. Calibre Mining focuses on optimizing its existing production capabilities while strategically exploring and developing new projects to enhance its resource base.

How the Company Makes Money

Calibre Mining Corp generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company operates several mining projects in Nicaragua, including the El Limon and La Libertad mines. These mines produce gold dore, which is then sold to various refineries and buyers in the global market. Calibre Mining's revenue model is heavily reliant on the market prices of gold, which can fluctuate based on global economic conditions, investor sentiment, and supply-demand dynamics. The company also invests in exploration to identify new resources, expand its reserves, and ensure long-term production sustainability. Additionally, Calibre Mining may engage in partnerships or joint ventures that contribute to its operational efficiency and resource development.

Calibre Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Calibre Mining shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency but faces challenges with profitability margins and cash flow generation. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, although free cash flow deficits need addressing for sustainable financial health.

Income Statement

Calibre Mining has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $57.76 million in 2019 to $585.86 million in 2024. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 26.02%, and the net profit margin stands at 5.93%. Both margins indicate moderate profitability. However, the decline in gross profit from the previous year suggests some cost pressures. EBIT and EBITDA margins for 2024 were 14.34% and 30.76% respectively, reflecting solid operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, indicating low financial leverage. The return on equity for 2024 is 3.62%, which is relatively modest and suggests that the company could improve its efficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 54.16% highlights a balanced approach to financing through equity.

Cash Flow

Calibre Mining's cash flow statement reveals a challenging free cash flow situation, with a negative free cash flow of $-228.32 million in 2024, primarily due to substantial capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 5.21, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting the strain of capital investments on cash reserves.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
585.86M	561.70M	403.07M	328.13M	242.75M
	Gross Profit
152.50M	170.40M	103.60M	104.25M	109.61M
	EBIT
84.03M	135.77M	79.88M	91.90M	86.65M
	EBITDA
180.26M	211.85M	165.67M	131.15M	137.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
34.74M	85.03M	43.34M	58.20M	63.41M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
131.09M	86.16M	56.49M	78.45M	53.17M
	Total Assets
1.77B	819.57M	664.26M	437.53M	351.18M
	Total Debt
378.42M	11.14M	13.08M	43.00K	150.00K
	Net Debt
247.33M	-75.02M	-43.41M	-78.41M	-53.02M
	Total Liabilities
811.75M	262.36M	213.51M	148.08M	121.03M
	Stockholders Equity
959.39M	557.21M	450.74M	289.45M	230.15M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-228.32M	43.19M	-49.52M	18.73M	34.71M
	Operating Cash Flow
181.05M	201.11M	96.66M	105.60M	81.26M
	Investing Cash Flow
-400.55M	-187.06M	-133.72M	-83.39M	-46.36M
	Financing Cash Flow
265.29M	15.56M	15.12M	3.03M	-14.48M

Calibre Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CXB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.02, above the 50-day MA of 2.83, and above the 200-day MA of 2.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CXB.

Calibre Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WDO	78 Outperform	C$2.44B	17.97	27.15%	―	67.54%	―
ELD	74 Outperform	$4.86B	12.18	8.12%	―	27.29%	―
IMG	72 Outperform	$5.02B	4.33	29.57%	―	―	―
CXB	65 Neutral	C$2.70B	54.19	4.55%	―	6.13%	-76.71%
OR	56 Neutral	$5.64B	246.15	1.33%	0.88%	1.62%	-232.31%
BTO	54 Neutral	C$5.94B	―	-18.54%	5.06%	-4.17%	-318.18%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.72B	-3.49	-20.75%	3.27%	3.42%	-28.80%

Calibre Mining Corporate Events

Calibre Mining Secures $75 Million in Private Placement to Fuel Growth

Calibre Mining Corp. has successfully closed a US$75 million private placement of unsecured convertible notes, which bear an interest rate of 5.5% per annum. This financial move is expected to bolster Calibre’s operational capabilities and support its growth strategy, enhancing its position in the gold production industry and potentially benefiting its stakeholders.

Equinox Gold and Calibre Mining Merge to Form Major Gold Producer

Equinox Gold Corp. and Calibre Mining Corp. have announced a definitive agreement to merge, creating a major gold producer focused on the Americas. The new entity, New Equinox Gold, will become the second largest gold producer in Canada, with significant production capacity and a strong pipeline of development projects, positioning it for sustainable growth and increased shareholder value.

Calibre Mining’s Record 2024 Results and Transformative Prospects for 2025

Calibre Mining Corp. reported record gold production for Q4 and FY 2024, surpassing revised annual production guidance. The company is set for a transformative 2025 with the Valentine Gold Mine expected to commence gold production in Q2, bolstered by strong exploration results and strategic preparations. The progress at Valentine, along with high-grade discoveries in Nicaragua, positions Calibre for continued growth and diversification, enhancing shareholder value.

Calibre Mining Expands Gold Discoveries at Valentine Mine

Calibre Mining has announced significant gold mineralization discoveries at the Frank Zone, part of their Valentine Gold Mine project in Newfoundland & Labrador, Canada. The new drilling results reveal broad zones of high-grade gold mineralization at surface, suggesting potential for a new open pit and enhancing the project’s prospects. With mineralization now traced over a kilometer along strike and 500 meters deep, the findings highlight the area’s untapped potential, positioning Calibre to achieve its target of becoming a mid-tier gold producer with annual production of 450,000 to 500,000 ounces.

Calibre Mining Announces 30% Increase in Gold at Valentine Mine

Calibre Mining, operating in the gold mining industry, has reported significant results from its ore control drilling at the Leprechaun open pit within the Valentine Gold Mine in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The drilling, covering 21,500 meters, has revealed 30% more contained gold compared to the 2022 Mineral Reserve model, with a 29% increase in ore tonnes and a 1% higher grade. This development enhances the confidence in the resource estimates, potentially leading to increased metal production and extended mine life, with Valentine construction progressing well and first gold production expected in Q2 2025.

Calibre Mining Achieves Major Milestone with One-Millionth Ounce of Gold in Nicaragua

Calibre Mining has announced the pouring of its one-millionth ounce of gold in Nicaragua and declared an initial mineral resource estimate at the Talavera Gold Deposit near the Limon Mill. The Talavera deposit, with a resource of 630,000 ounces of gold, presents significant expansion potential due to its high-grade mineralization and proximity to existing infrastructure, aligning with Calibre’s strategy of self-funded growth and operational excellence.

Calibre Mining Celebrates Four Years of Responsible Gold Mining Excellence

Calibre Mining Corp. has announced its fourth consecutive year of compliance with the World Gold Council’s Responsible Gold Mining Principles, underlining its dedication to sustainability, transparency, and ethical mining practices. The company’s efforts have been recognized with an upgraded MSCI ESG Rating, reflecting its progress and commitment to leading environmental, social, and governance standards. This achievement not only fortifies stakeholder confidence but also showcases Calibre’s continuous improvement and accountability in aligning with best global practices, setting benchmarks in responsible mining and contributing significantly to its sustainability strategy.

Calibre Mining Achieves Record Gold Production and Prepares for Significant Growth with Valentine Mine

Calibre Mining Corp. reported a record gold production in Q4 2024, with a total of 76,269 ounces and a full-year production of 242,487 ounces, exceeding their guidance. The company’s upcoming Valentine Gold Mine in Canada is on track for its first gold production by Q2 2025, positioning Calibre as a robust, diversified mid-tier producer. With strategic advancements and exploration success, particularly at the Valentine site, Calibre is set for significant growth, aiming to increase its production capacity and solidify its industry position.