Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$75.01B
• Dividend Yield: 1.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 2.25%
• EPS Growth: 4.76%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 149,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.06
• Shares Outstanding: 918,679,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,091,688
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,527,454
• PEG Ratio: -7.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$91.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$74.80B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$93.00 ▲(13.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/11/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/11/25

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's robust revenue growth, efficient operations, and strategic expansion efforts are key strengths. While technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, the reasonable valuation and positive earnings sentiment support a favorable outlook.

Positive Factors

Network Expansion & Scale

A large, growing store pipeline and steady openings deepen distribution, boost purchasing scale, and create more cross-selling points for higher-margin in-store items. Over 100 openings and 1,000 potential sites support multi-quarter revenue and margin leverage from fixed costs and logistics.

Food category and Loyalty Momentum

Rapid loyalty growth and record meal-deal volumes drive recurring customer engagement and higher-margin in-store sales. A 12.5M member base plus >1M meal deals/week creates sustainable frequency, improves basket size and allows targeted promotions that strengthen long-term revenue mix.

Strong profitability and capital structure

A balanced leverage profile and high ROE indicate effective capital deployment and earnings conversion. Manageable debt with strong ROE supports disciplined M&A, funding of store growth and shareholder returns while leaving capacity to invest in cost efficiency and network expansion.

Negative Factors

Weakening free cash flow

Declining free cash flow growth and modest operating cash conversion constrain financial flexibility for capex, debt paydown and acquisitions. Over several quarters this can limit ability to fund network expansion or return capital without increasing leverage or cutting investments.

Fuel volume declines in key regions

Structural drops in fuel volumes reduce a high-revenue line and pressure site profitability where fuel drives store traffic. Persistent declines in major regions can erode fuel gross profit contribution and force reliance on lower-margin in-store sales to sustain overall margins.

Regulatory and illicit pressure on nicotine sales

Regulatory restrictions and illicit competition reduce sales of a traditionally high-margin category. Ongoing policy changes and black-market substitution in Canada can permanently shrink a profitable revenue stream and require pricing or category strategy shifts to offset margin loss.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. operates and licenses convenience stores. Its convenience stores sell tobacco products, grocery items, candies and snacks, beer, wine, beverages, and fresh food offerings; road transportation fuels; and aviation fuels, as well as energy for stationary engines. The company operates its convenience stores chain under the Circle K, Couche-Tard, Holiday, Ingo, and Mac's brands. It is also involved in the sale of lottery tickets, calling and gift cards, postage stamps, and bus tickets; issuance of money orders; and provision of automatic teller machines and car wash services. As of April 24, 2022, it operated and licensed 12,166 convenience stores, which include 9,808 company-operated stores in North America, Europe, and Asia, as well as approximately 1,800 stores operated under the Circle K banner in Cambodia, Egypt, Guam, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Jamaica, Macau, Mexico, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. The company was formerly known as Actidev Inc. and changed its name to Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in December 1994. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Laval, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Alimentation Couche-Tard generates revenue primarily through the sale of fuel and convenience store products. Its revenue model is diversified into several key streams: first, the retail sales of fuel, which accounts for a substantial portion of its income, particularly in regions with high traffic and demand. Second, the convenience store sales encompass a variety of merchandise including food, beverages, and personal care items. The company also benefits from ancillary services such as lottery sales, car washes, and foodservice operations. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and brands enhance its product offerings and promotions, driving customer traffic and sales. Additionally, Couche-Tard's aggressive expansion strategy through acquisitions of other convenience store chains has bolstered its market share and revenue potential, further contributing to its financial performance.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc shows strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations and a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains healthy margins and a solid return on equity, attention is needed on improving free cash flow generation to ensure long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 64.1%, indicating robust expansion. The gross profit margin of 18.3% and net profit margin of 3.6% are stable, reflecting efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 5.3% and 8.1%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased compared to previous periods, suggesting potential pressure on profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97 indicates a balanced approach to leveraging, with manageable debt levels relative to equity. Return on equity is strong at 17.6%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio of 37.9% suggests a solid capital structure, though there is room for improvement in reducing leverage further.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 indicate adequate cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative at -2.1%, highlighting a potential area of concern for future liquidity. The company needs to focus on improving free cash flow generation to support ongoing operations and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	72.39B	72.86B	69.26B	71.86B	62.81B	45.76B
Gross Profit	13.42B	13.02B	12.10B	12.05B	11.00B	10.12B
EBITDA	5.97B	5.28B	5.02B	5.18B	4.52B	4.52B
Net Income	2.60B	2.58B	2.73B	3.09B	2.68B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.62B	38.32B	37.40B	28.99B	29.47B	28.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.17B	2.32B	1.89B	940.68M	2.18B	3.03B
Total Debt	15.62B	13.96B	14.69B	9.47B	9.40B	9.59B
Total Liabilities	25.11B	23.22B	24.02B	16.45B	17.08B	16.20B
Stockholders Equity	15.38B	14.95B	13.25B	12.53B	12.39B	12.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.92B	2.74B	2.84B	2.48B	2.23B	3.05B
Operating Cash Flow	5.19B	5.08B	4.76B	4.25B	3.86B	4.35B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.80B	-1.60B	-6.53B	-2.23B	-1.74B	-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-2.56B	2.18B	-3.28B	-2.89B	-3.65B

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 81.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.92, above the 50-day MA of 77.34, and above the 200-day MA of 72.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATD.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATD	77 Outperform	C$75.01B	22.62	17.53%	1.08%	2.25%	4.76%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CTC.A	58 Neutral	C$10.32B	16.32	13.16%	4.10%	-0.13%	13.73%
CTC	55 Neutral	$10.32B	16.32	13.16%	3.17%	-0.13%	13.73%

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Corporate Events

Couche-Tard Maps Out ‘Core + More’ Growth Strategy and Long-Term Financial Targets

Alimentation Couche-Tard unveiled its 2026 Business Strategy Update in Toronto, introducing a “Core + More” plan aimed at reinforcing its core convenience and fuel retail platforms while investing in new growth areas. Management says the strategy is designed to use the company’s scale, data capabilities and supply chain to enhance customer offerings and convert operational strength into higher shareholder value.

As part of the update, the company issued new long-term financial guidance through fiscal 2030, targeting 2% to 3% annual growth in consolidated same-store merchandise revenues and 4% to 5% growth in total merchandise and service revenues. It also aims for adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% to 8%, adjusted diluted EPS growth of at least 10%, fuel gross profit and expense growth roughly in line with inflation, and free cash flow exceeding US$2.5 billion in fiscal 2026, underscoring a focus on earnings expansion and disciplined capital deployment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATD) stock is a Buy with a C$96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc stock, see the TSE:ATD Stock Forecast page.