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Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (TSE:ATD)
TSX:ATD
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Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:ATD

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc

(TSX:ATD)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$79.00
▲(13.18% Upside)
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its overall score. While technical indicators suggest a lack of strong momentum, the company's fair valuation and strategic initiatives in international markets and technology provide a solid foundation for future growth. Challenges in the U.S. market and decreased net earnings slightly temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Market Activity
Analyst expects ATD shares to rise after Couche-Tard pulls offer for 7&i.
Profit Growth
Growing merchandise categories like Other Tobacco Products and prepared food are margin accretive and can drive gross profit growth.
Sales Improvement
Value meal bundles are still accelerating sequentially and ATD's loyalty program is signing on more members that drive incremental sales.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Elevated operating expenses and depreciation & amortization growth are expected to continue, affecting ATD's financial performance.
Growth Prospects
ATD's U.S. merchandise same-store sales may remain tepid, impacting the company's growth prospects.
Valuation Concerns
The stock's valuation is not considered compelling due to low expected organic EBIT growth and challenges in U.S. merchandise sales.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlimentation Couche-Tard Inc. is a Canada-based multinational operator of convenience stores. The company operates in the retail sector, primarily focusing on offering a wide range of products such as beverages, snacks, fuel, and other convenience-related items. With a vast network of stores under various brand names including Couche-Tard, Circle K, and Ingo, the company serves millions of customers daily across numerous countries.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlimentation Couche-Tard Inc. generates revenue through its extensive network of convenience stores that sell a variety of products including fuel, food, and beverages. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of fuel, which constitutes a significant portion of its income, and the sale of merchandise within its stores. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and acquisitions that expand its market reach and enhance its offerings. Couche-Tard's ability to effectively manage its supply chain and optimize store operations also contributes to its profitability. The company leverages its strong brand presence and customer loyalty programs to drive sales and maintain a competitive position in the convenience retail market.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 27, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong international growth, technological advancements, and successful loyalty and food programs, offset by challenges in U.S. merchandise and fuel volumes, and decreased net earnings. While international markets showed resilience, the U.S. faced economic headwinds impacting revenue and volume growth.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong International Performance
Positive same-store sales in Canada (3.5%) and Europe (3.4%), driven by strong alcohol sales in Canada and favorable legislation in Europe.
Fuel Business Growth
Increased fuel volumes in Canada by 3.7%, and maintained market share in the U.S. with aligned margins.
Expansion and M&A Activity
45 new stores opened this quarter; ongoing discussions for acquiring Seven & i Holdings with a clear path to U.S. regulatory approval.
Technological Advancements
Awarded the 2025 NACS Convenience Retail Technology Award Europe for AI-driven digital people platform; plans to pilot RELEX for inventory management.
Successful Loyalty and Food Programs
Loyalty membership growth in the U.S. to 10.5 million; food bundle sales in North America up 35% from Q3, totaling nearly 800,000 meal deals weekly.
Negative Updates
U.S. Merchandise Revenue Decline
Same-store merchandise revenues decreased by 0.4% in the U.S., due to challenging economic and inflationary conditions.
Decreased Net Earnings
Net earnings for fiscal year 2025 stood at $2.6 billion, a decrease of 5.5% compared to fiscal 2024, primarily due to higher depreciation and operating expenses.
Increased Operating Expenses
Normalized operating expenses rose by 4.6% year-over-year, including $20 million in legal and environmental reserves.
Challenges in U.S. Fuel Volumes
Same-store road transportation fuel volumes decreased by 1.9% in the U.S., impacted by low-income consumer spending.
Company Guidance
In the call discussing Alimentation Couche-Tard's fourth-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, several key metrics and initiatives were highlighted. The company maintained same-store sales in the U.S., with strong growth in Canada and Europe, where same-store merchandise revenues increased by 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively. Meal deals in North America displayed significant growth, with sales reaching nearly 800,000 per week. The U.S. saw a modest improvement in same-store sales by the end of the quarter. The company pursued notable M&A activities, including efforts to acquire Seven & i Holdings and nearing the closure of the GetGo acquisition. Fuel business performance showed resilience with positive volumes in Canada, while U.S. fuel margins remained aligned with recent quarters. In terms of financials, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 6%, driven by improved fuel margins. The company also focused on operational efficiency, noting a 6.1% increase in adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year and maintaining a leverage ratio of 1.96. Furthermore, Couche-Tard made significant progress in deploying technology and AI to streamline operations and enhance customer engagement, while continuing its commitment to cost control and strategic investments.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue and cash flow growth. The company maintains a stable balance sheet with manageable leverage and effective capital allocation. While net profit margins have faced slight pressure, operational efficiency remains strong, positioning the company well for future growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc has shown consistent growth in revenue, with a notable increase from $62.8 billion in 2022 to $72.9 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin improved, reaching approximately 17.9% in 2025, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin slightly decreased to 3.5% in 2025, reflecting pressure on net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins remained stable, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a strong equity position, with an equity ratio improving to around 39.0% in 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased slightly to 0.93, signifying prudent debt management. Return on equity is healthy, reflecting strong shareholder value creation. The balance sheet shows stability, with manageable leverage levels.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Operating cash flow has shown consistent growth, reaching $5.0 billion in 2025, supporting strong free cash flow generation at $2.7 billion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating efficient cash conversion. The company effectively manages its capital expenditures, supporting sustainable cash flow growth.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue74.18B72.86B69.26B71.86B62.81B45.76B
Gross Profit12.87B13.02B12.10B12.05B11.00B10.12B
EBITDA6.01B6.08B5.73B5.82B5.27B5.05B
Net Income2.59B2.58B2.73B3.09B2.68B2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets36.57B38.30B36.94B29.05B29.59B28.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.78B2.31B1.87B929.20M2.17B3.03B
Total Debt13.91B13.96B14.47B9.47B9.44B9.60B
Total Liabilities22.23B23.21B23.64B16.48B17.15B16.21B
Stockholders Equity14.20B14.95B13.19B12.56B12.44B12.18B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.53B2.71B2.87B2.54B2.28B2.86B
Operating Cash Flow4.77B5.04B4.82B4.34B3.94B4.09B
Investing Cash Flow-1.47B-1.58B-6.60B-2.28B-1.80B-1.39B
Financing Cash Flow-2.59B-2.54B2.21B-3.35B-2.95B-3.43B

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price69.80
Price Trends
50DMA
70.68
Negative
100DMA
70.76
Negative
200DMA
72.97
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.52
Positive
RSI
45.47
Neutral
STOCH
31.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.29, below the 50-day MA of 70.68, and below the 200-day MA of 72.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ATD.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
C$65.26B18.3918.50%1.09%8.61%-0.93%
61
Neutral
$17.75B12.56-5.49%3.02%1.43%-14.12%
$6.93B18.0213.84%2.85%
$6.93B12.5913.84%4.08%
72
Outperform
C$2.62B28.06126.66%1.21%5.18%17.66%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ATD
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc
69.80
-7.16
-9.30%
CDNTF
Canadian Tire
179.14
16.20
9.94%
CDNAF
Canadian Tire
124.50
15.60
14.33%
TSE:PET
Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.
38.15
14.52
61.45%

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alimentation Couche-Tard Reports Resilient Fiscal 2025 Results Amid Global Challenges
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, highlighting resilience amid challenging economic and geopolitical conditions. The company maintained stable same-store sales in the U.S. and achieved positive results in Canada and Europe. Despite a slight decrease in net earnings compared to the previous year, Couche-Tard demonstrated strong operational effectiveness and continued investment in technology and customer value. The integration of TotalEnergies assets progressed as planned, and the company focused on strategic initiatives and cost control to support long-term growth. Key highlights include a 2.0% increase in total merchandise and service revenues, a decrease in same-store merchandise revenues in the U.S., and an increase in fuel volumes in Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATD) stock is a Buy with a C$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc stock, see the TSE:ATD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025