Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$69.94B
• Dividend Yield: 1.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 2.25%
• EPS Growth: 4.76%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 149,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.11
• Shares Outstanding: 918,230,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,091,688
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,527,454
• PEG Ratio: -7.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$90.17
• Price Target Upside: 18.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.91
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$75.09B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$85.00 ▲(11.59% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/19/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue and free-cash-flow generation) tempered by increased leverage and thin net margins. Earnings-call commentary was broadly positive with clear operating momentum, while technicals are mixed-to-soft near term and valuation support is limited by a higher P/E and modest yield.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Consistent, meaningful free cash flow (TTM ~3.36B with +15% growth) supports durable strategic options: funding store expansion, loyalty and meal-deal investments, debt service, buybacks or dividends. Strong cash generation underpins resilience through cyclical retail dynamics.

Loyalty & Food Ecosystem

A large, growing loyalty base (12.5M+) and >1M meal deals/week enhance customer frequency and basket size, shifting sales mix toward higher-margin foodservice. That structural consumer engagement improves lifetime value and supports sustained in-store revenue growth.

Network Scale & Growth Pipeline

Ongoing store openings and a deep site pipeline extend distribution scale and local market density, reinforcing purchasing, logistics, and brand advantages. Incremental stores compound convenience synergies between fuel and in-store sales, supporting medium-term revenue and margin opportunities.

Negative Factors

Thin Profit Margins

Low net and operating margins mean limited earnings leverage from revenue growth and a smaller buffer versus cost inflation. In a low-margin retail model, margin pressure can quickly erode profitability and constrain reinvestment or shareholder return capacity over the medium term.

Rising Leverage

Higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Given thin margins, elevated debt amplifies downside risk from weaker cash flow periods and limits optionality for large M&A or counter-cyclical investment without adding further leverage.

Category & Demand Risks

Declining fuel volumes and regulatory/illicit challenges in nicotine sales are structural headwinds to high-revenue categories. They reduce site-level throughput and cross-sell potential, pressuring overall store economics and requiring strategic adjustments to preserve margin mix.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. operates and licenses convenience stores. Its convenience stores sell tobacco products, grocery items, candies and snacks, beer, wine, beverages, and fresh food offerings; road transportation fuels; and aviation fuels, as well as energy for stationary engines. The company operates its convenience stores chain under the Circle K, Couche-Tard, Holiday, Ingo, and Mac's brands. It is also involved in the sale of lottery tickets, calling and gift cards, postage stamps, and bus tickets; issuance of money orders; and provision of automatic teller machines and car wash services. As of April 24, 2022, it operated and licensed 12,166 convenience stores, which include 9,808 company-operated stores in North America, Europe, and Asia, as well as approximately 1,800 stores operated under the Circle K banner in Cambodia, Egypt, Guam, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Jamaica, Macau, Mexico, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. The company was formerly known as Actidev Inc. and changed its name to Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in December 1994. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Laval, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Couche-Tard generates revenue mainly through two interconnected retail activities: (1) in-store convenience retail sales and (2) road-transportation fuel (and related) sales. In-store revenue comes from selling consumer goods and prepared food/beverages (including coffee and foodservice) where profitability is driven by retail gross margin, merchandising, and increasing same-store traffic and basket size. Fuel revenue comes from selling gasoline and diesel at company-operated sites; while fuel can be a high-revenue line item, profitability is primarily influenced by fuel gross margin (the spread between pump prices and fuel acquisition costs) and volume sold. The company also earns revenue from ancillary offerings tied to its store network, which can include car wash, lottery, and other site services (where permitted), as well as commissions/fees on certain third-party products and services sold in-store. Across these streams, earnings are supported by scale purchasing, logistics and distribution efficiency, optimized pricing and promotions, private-label/controlled brands, and a network strategy that leverages the convenience store to drive both higher-margin in-store sales and repeat fuel visits. The company’s overall results are also influenced by factors such as fuel margin volatility, consumer traffic patterns, product mix (including tobacco/nicotine and foodservice penetration), foreign exchange (given international operations), and acquisitions/integration of new store networks.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue growth (~+25% vs 2025) and meaningful free cash flow (~3.36B) support a solid base. Offsetting this, profitability remains thin (TTM net margin ~3.6%) and leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~1.02), reducing balance-sheet flexibility versus recent years.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up strongly versus the prior annual period (about +25% vs 2025), indicating solid top-line momentum. Profitability is steady but not expanding meaningfully: gross margin improved modestly (TTM ~18.5% vs 2025 ~17.9%), while net margin remains thin (~3.6% TTM) and below the stronger levels seen in earlier years (e.g., 2021). Operating profitability (EBIT margin ~5.4% TTM) is consistent, but overall earnings power is constrained by low retail margins and a multi-year downshift from 2021’s higher margin profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased: total debt rose to ~15.8B in TTM and debt relative to equity moved to ~1.02, higher than 2025 (~0.93) and well above 2022–2023 (~0.76). Returns on shareholders’ equity remain healthy (~17% TTM), but the combination of higher leverage and only modest margin profile reduces balance sheet flexibility versus prior years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid with TTM operating cash flow of ~5.6B and free cash flow of ~3.36B, with very strong TTM free-cash-flow growth (about +15% vs 2025). However, cash conversion is not especially strong: free cash flow is only ~56% of net income in TTM (and similar in prior years), and operating cash flow relative to revenue is moderate (TTM ~0.63). Overall, the business produces meaningful free cash flow, but conversion metrics suggest working-capital and/or reinvestment needs can weigh on how much accounting profit becomes distributable cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	73.29B	72.86B	69.26B	71.86B	62.81B	45.76B
Gross Profit	13.89B	13.02B	12.10B	12.05B	11.00B	10.12B
EBITDA	6.26B	5.28B	5.02B	5.18B	4.52B	4.52B
Net Income	2.72B	2.58B	2.73B	3.09B	2.68B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.89B	38.32B	37.40B	28.99B	29.47B	28.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.56B	2.32B	1.89B	940.68M	2.18B	3.03B
Total Debt	15.78B	13.96B	14.69B	9.47B	9.40B	9.59B
Total Liabilities	25.17B	23.22B	24.02B	16.45B	17.08B	16.20B
Stockholders Equity	15.59B	14.95B	13.25B	12.53B	12.39B	12.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.36B	2.74B	2.84B	2.48B	2.23B	3.05B
Operating Cash Flow	5.55B	5.08B	4.76B	4.25B	3.86B	4.35B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.86B	-1.60B	-6.53B	-2.23B	-1.74B	-1.48B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.97B	-2.56B	2.18B	-3.28B	-2.89B	-3.65B

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 76.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 76.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.84, below the 50-day MA of 79.03, and above the 200-day MA of 73.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ATD.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATD	67 Neutral	C$69.94B	21.61	17.36%	1.08%	2.25%	4.76%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CTC	52 Neutral	C$9.50B	16.32	13.16%	3.17%	-0.13%	13.73%
CTC.A	51 Neutral	C$9.50B	16.32	8.99%	4.10%	-0.13%	13.73%

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc Corporate Events

Couche-Tard Delivers Strong Q3 2026 Earnings and Expands Store Network

Alimentation Couche-Tard reported a strong third quarter for fiscal 2026, with net earnings attributable to shareholders rising to $757.2 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, and adjusted net earnings up 17.2% year over year. Total merchandise and service revenues grew 8.7% to $5.8 billion, while consolidated same-store merchandise revenues increased 2.0% and fuel gross margins improved across all regions.

Management highlighted that same-store sales were positive in every region for a third consecutive quarter, supported by value-focused offers, loyalty engagement, and a refreshed Core + More strategy. The company continued to expand its network with 37 new-to-industry openings and eight relocations or reconstructions in the quarter, with 58 more stores under construction, underscoring its growth ambitions and reinforcing its competitive position in the global convenience and fuel retail market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATD) stock is a Buy with a C$91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc stock, see the TSE:ATD Stock Forecast page.

Couche-Tard Maps Out ‘Core + More’ Growth Strategy and Long-Term Financial Targets

Alimentation Couche-Tard unveiled its 2026 Business Strategy Update in Toronto, introducing a “Core + More” plan aimed at reinforcing its core convenience and fuel retail platforms while investing in new growth areas. Management says the strategy is designed to use the company’s scale, data capabilities and supply chain to enhance customer offerings and convert operational strength into higher shareholder value.

As part of the update, the company issued new long-term financial guidance through fiscal 2030, targeting 2% to 3% annual growth in consolidated same-store merchandise revenues and 4% to 5% growth in total merchandise and service revenues. It also aims for adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% to 8%, adjusted diluted EPS growth of at least 10%, fuel gross profit and expense growth roughly in line with inflation, and free cash flow exceeding US$2.5 billion in fiscal 2026, underscoring a focus on earnings expansion and disciplined capital deployment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATD) stock is a Buy with a C$96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc stock, see the TSE:ATD Stock Forecast page.