Amerigo Resources (ARG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$772.54M
• Dividend Yield: 4.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 819.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.56
• Revenue Growth: 10.41%
• EPS Growth: -0.23%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 299
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 160,946,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 829,810
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 819,919
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$7.25
• Price Target Upside: 29.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$212.80M

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$5.00 ▼(-10.55% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial health (notably zero debt and improving profitability) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting these positives are a demanding valuation (high P/E) and earnings sensitivity from reduced production guidance and cost/royalty risks highlighted on the latest earnings call.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet strength

Zero trailing-twelve-month debt gives Amerigo durable financial flexibility: it can fund operations, absorb commodity shocks, and prioritize dividends or capital spending without debt-service strain. This strengthens resilience across copper cycles and supports strategic optionality.

Improving profitability

Sustained operating margins (~13%) and improved net profitability (~7%) indicate the MVC operation converts throughput into earnings efficiently. Persistent margins support cash generation and dividend capacity, reducing sensitivity to short-term price swings when maintained.

Deleveraging enables capital returns

Full repayment of outstanding debt materially increases free cash flow capacity and financial optionality. Management has already increased the dividend, showing a durable commitment to returning capital; this positions Amerigo to sustain payouts or reinvest through the copper cycle.

Negative Factors

Tailings supply dependency

Amerigo's MVC relies on Codelco's El Teniente tailings as its feedstock; supply interruptions outside Amerigo's control directly cut production and forced guidance reductions. This concentrated supply relationship is a structural operational risk that can recur and impair output.

Volatile cash conversion

Historic gaps between accounting earnings and realized cash, plus cyclical results, suggest earnings durability risk. If operating cash fails to track net income in down cycles, dividend and reinvestment plans become vulnerable and free cash flow can swing materially year-to-year.

Royalty and cost pressure

Potential royalty renegotiation and rising tolling/production costs are structural margin risks. Higher royalties or sustained cost inflation would erode unit margins and long-term free cash flow, reducing the company's ability to sustain dividends and capital programs.

Amerigo Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amerigo Resources Ltd., through its subsidiary, Minera Valle Central S.A., produces and sells copper and molybdenum concentrates from Codelco's El Teniente underground mine in Chile. The company was formerly known as Golden Temple Mining Corp. and changed its name to Amerigo Resources Ltd. in March 2002. Amerigo Resources Ltd. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Amerigo makes money primarily by producing and selling copper concentrate from its MVC operation in Chile. MVC generates revenue by recovering copper from tailings (waste streams) originating from Codelco’s El Teniente mine, then marketing the resulting copper concentrate to smelters/refiners under offtake and/or sales arrangements (specific counterparties and contract terms: null). Revenue is driven mainly by (1) payable copper content in the concentrate sold, which is largely linked to prevailing copper prices; (2) production volumes, which depend on tailings throughput, copper grades, metallurgical recoveries, and plant availability; and (3) treatment and refining charges and other typical concentrate commercial terms that affect net realized pricing (specific fee structures: null). In addition to copper, MVC may generate incremental revenue from by-product metals contained in the concentrate (by-product details and materiality: null). Key factors influencing earnings include copper price movements, operating and energy costs, foreign-exchange effects (cost base vs. sales currency), and the operational relationship with Codelco as the source of tailings supply from El Teniente (specific supply/contract terms: null).

Amerigo Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial strength is supported by a very strong balance sheet (zero total debt in TTM and solid returns on equity), alongside improved TTM profitability. Offsetting this, cash conversion is only moderate (operating cash flow and free cash flow below net income in TTM) and results have been cyclical, increasing earnings durability risk.

Income Statement

Profitability has strengthened meaningfully into TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with healthy operating profitability (about 13% operating margin) and improved net profitability (about 7%). The business also shows strong top-line expansion in the most recent period, but results have been cyclical over the past several years (notably weaker profitability in 2022–2023 versus the very strong 2021), which is a key risk for earnings durability.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet quality is a clear strength: leverage is low, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) total debt is reported at zero, while equity and total assets remain solid. Returns on shareholder capital are strong (around 19% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), though the company has seen periods of much lower returns in prior years, underscoring commodity/operating sensitivity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with solid free cash flow in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but cash conversion is not consistently strong: operating cash flow is below net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and free cash flow is also below net income, indicating weaker cash realization versus accounting profits. Cash flow performance has improved sharply from the low levels seen in 2022–2023, but year-to-year volatility remains a consideration.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	231.30M	294.99M	157.46M	168.05M	199.55M
Gross Profit	68.27M	45.41M	13.86M	27.92M	71.68M
EBITDA	85.29M	57.61M	29.98M	45.59M	84.16M
Net Income	36.05M	19.24M	3.38M	4.37M	39.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	217.34M	205.47M	199.56M	231.18M	269.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.24M	35.86M	17.15M	38.96M	59.79M
Total Debt	0.00	10.70M	20.71M	25.91M	33.85M
Total Liabilities	102.43M	100.68M	94.71M	112.48M	130.55M
Stockholders Equity	114.91M	104.79M	104.85M	118.70M	138.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	32.38M	50.44M	3.39M	13.82M	81.17M
Operating Cash Flow	44.48M	59.78M	20.28M	23.63M	93.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.10M	-9.34M	-16.89M	-9.81M	-8.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-27.88M	-29.40M	-24.91M	-35.89M	-36.82M

Amerigo Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.58, below the 50-day MA of 5.64, and above the 200-day MA of 3.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ARG.

Amerigo Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARG	75 Outperform	C$772.54M	14.93	33.30%	4.11%	10.41%	-0.23%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ASCU	59 Neutral	C$1.28B	-39.35	-5.31%	―	―	22.26%
FDY	56 Neutral	C$1.06B	-22.07	-67.57%	―	―	-10.32%
ECU	55 Neutral	C$177.27M	-56.86	-15.12%	―	―	71.30%
CUU	47 Neutral	C$334.16M	-361.97	-1.26%	―	―	36.84%
LA	42 Neutral	C$354.77M	-48.09	-6.57%	―	―	-41.70%

Amerigo Resources Corporate Events

Amerigo Boosts Payouts on Strong 2025 Results and Record Copper Prices

Amerigo Resources reported strong 2025 results, with net income of $35.4 million, EBITDA of $89.8 million and free cash flow to equity of $37.1 million, supported by higher copper and molybdenum revenues despite slightly lower copper output. The company returned $20.4 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, eliminated its debt, and declared an eighteenth consecutive quarterly dividend of Cdn$0.04 per share, reinforcing its fully deployed capital return strategy amid historically high copper prices.

Copper production from Minera Valle Central reached 62.2 million pounds in 2025, alongside 1.5 million pounds of molybdenum, while Q4-2025 net income climbed to $17.9 million on strong margins. Management remains optimistic on copper’s long-term fundamentals and plans to prioritize reliability and asset integrity to sustain free cash flow generation, positioning Amerigo to continue channeling rising copper price leverage into direct returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARG) stock is a Hold with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amerigo Resources stock, see the TSE:ARG Stock Forecast page.

Amerigo Hits Record Q4 Copper Output, Tops 2025 Guidance and Lifts 2026 Production Target

Amerigo Resources reported record quarterly copper output in Q4 2025 of 18.9 million pounds and full-year copper production of 62.2 million pounds, surpassing its revised guidance despite operational headwinds from reduced fresh tailings following an accident at El Teniente. Molybdenum production also beat expectations at 1.5 million pounds, cash costs came in below normalized guidance, and MVC ran with 98.4% plant availability, no lost-time accidents and no environmental incidents, underscoring operational resilience and the benefits of recent optimization projects. The company kept 2025 capex below its approved budget with no cost overruns, became debt-free after repaying $11.5 million in debt, returned $20.3 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, and ended the year with $40.3 million in cash, while issuing 2026 guidance for higher copper output of 63.8 million pounds and steady molybdenum production, marking the sixth consecutive year of increased production guidance and reinforcing its growth and capital-return profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARG) stock is a Buy with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amerigo Resources stock, see the TSE:ARG Stock Forecast page.