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Africa Oil (TSE:AOI)
TSX:AOI

Africa Oil (AOI) AI Stock Analysis

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Africa Oil

(TSX:AOI)

45Neutral
Africa Oil's stock faces significant financial challenges with no revenue and negative cash flows, despite strategic initiatives and positive shareholder returns. Technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution, while earnings call guidance offers some optimism. Overall, the stock's performance is constrained by financial hurdles, balanced by strategic efforts and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Dividends
The Prime reorganisation is expected to underpin a sustainable annual dividend of at least $100 million, significantly higher than current levels.
Earnings
Africa Oil published Q4/24 results with numbers within guidance and slightly ahead of analyst estimates.
Operational Performance
The Egina field completed the year above plan due to its high production efficiency and successful well interventions.
Negative Factors
Share Price
The operational performance and smart corporate decisions made are at odds with the share price weakness, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors.
Valuation
The shares are trading at a 41% discount to analyst NAV of $3.20 per share.

Africa Oil (AOI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Africa Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAfrica Oil Corp (AOI) is an independent oil and gas company that focuses on exploration and production activities primarily in Africa. The company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties. Its core operations are centered in Kenya and Nigeria, and it holds interests in various exploration blocks across the African continent.
How the Company Makes MoneyAfrica Oil Corp generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its operational fields. A significant portion of its income is derived from its working interests in oil-producing assets in Nigeria, which provide consistent cash flow through the sale of crude oil. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other exploration and production companies, allowing it to share risks and costs associated with large-scale projects. These collaborations also enhance its access to new technologies and resources, contributing to its overall earnings.

Africa Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Africa Oil faces significant financial hurdles with no revenue generation leading to continuous losses. The balance sheet shows low leverage but declining total assets and cash reserves indicate potential liquidity risks. Negative operating and free cash flows further highlight sustainability concerns.
Income Statement
20
Very Negative
Africa Oil's income statement reveals significant challenges, as demonstrated by consistent negative EBIT and net income, with no total revenue across all periods. This indicates persistent financial distress and an inability to generate revenue, leading to negative profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a relatively strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating low leverage and a low debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company's declining total assets and cash reserves pose potential liquidity risks.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flows and free cash flows in the TTM, reflecting cash burn that could impact sustainability. The past year showed some improvement in cash management, yet overall, the free cash flow remains negative, signaling ongoing cash flow challenges.
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit
0.000.000.000.00-546.00K
EBIT
86.90M111.40M208.85M227.34M-17.11M
EBITDA
-31.90M-27.00M197.60M227.34M-11.28M
Net Income Common Stockholders
87.10K-57.90M-54.28M-287.31M-143.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
232.00M199.30M58.51M38.74M329.46M
Total Assets
966.20M917.70M991.62M910.50M812.30M
Total Debt
0.000.000.00141.69M3.27M
Net Debt
-232.00M-199.30M-58.51M102.95M-326.20M
Total Liabilities
71.60M87.10M43.56M156.21M45.60M
Stockholders Equity
894.60M830.60M948.06M754.29M766.70M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-53.30M-16.30M-14.79M-5.43M-4.59M
Operating Cash Flow
-53.30M-16.30M-10.21M-5.35M-4.48M
Investing Cash Flow
114.70M220.20M187.70M-394.27M-35.13M
Financing Cash Flow
-29.10M-63.20M-159.12M110.64M-1.22M

Africa Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.84
Price Trends
50DMA
1.88
Negative
100DMA
1.89
Negative
200DMA
1.90
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Negative
RSI
49.70
Neutral
STOCH
32.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AOI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.79, below the 50-day MA of 1.88, and below the 200-day MA of 1.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AOI.

Africa Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSCJ
78
Outperform
C$918.89M8.3711.78%12.61%3.79%3.87%
TSHWX
75
Outperform
$1.39B6.9129.87%7.08%20.48%21.66%
TSPXT
69
Neutral
C$1.07B13.363.20%14.00%-5.80%-87.18%
TSVET
63
Neutral
$1.35B-1.59%5.68%-1.72%79.87%
61
Neutral
C$2.25B17.3010.02%-5.71%-37.55%
56
Neutral
$7.00B3.44-4.86%5.89%-0.09%-48.37%
TSAOI
45
Neutral
$1.24B-38.67%4.72%-438.52%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AOI
Africa Oil
1.80
-0.57
-24.18%
TSE:HWX
Headwater Exploration
5.66
-1.26
-18.26%
TSE:PXT
Parex Resources
10.72
-10.47
-49.40%
TSE:VET
Vermilion Energy
8.34
-7.42
-47.06%
TSE:CJ
Cardinal Energy
5.49
-0.76
-12.16%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
18.33
0.97
5.59%

Africa Oil Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 28, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 0.38%|
Next Earnings Date:May 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strategic achievements and financial challenges. Africa Oil highlighted significant steps in shareholder returns, strategic acquisitions, and production performance, indicating a positive outlook. However, the company faced financial setbacks with a net loss primarily due to non-cash impairment and a decrease in cash balance. The overall sentiment is balanced with promising strategic developments but also notable financial challenges.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Largest Annual Return to Shareholders
Africa Oil returned almost $68 million to shareholders through base dividend policy and share buybacks, the largest annual return since March 2022.
Successful Venus Appraisal Program
Completion of the Venus appraisal program with positive updates and final investment decision expected by first half of 2026.
Strategic Acquisition in Impact Oil & Gas
Increased stake in Impact Oil & Gas to 39.5%, enhancing influence over strategic assets in Namibian Orange Basin.
Doubling Reserves and Production
Africa Oil is set to double reserves and production through Prime consolidation, taking direct control of Prime's cash flows and balance sheet.
Strong Cash Balance Post-Prime Deal
Combined cash balance with Prime is about $461 million, supporting financial strength and strategic priorities.
Positive Production Performance
Assets achieved average daily rates within full year guidance with successful well interventions in Akpo, Egina, and Agbami fields.
Capital Allocation Framework for Shareholder Returns
Introduction of a new capital allocation framework with an annual base dividend of at least $100 million and supplementary returns from free cash flows.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in 2024
Africa Oil recorded a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $279.1 million, mainly due to non-cash impairment loss in the company’s investment in Prime for $436.7 million.
Decrease in Cash Balance
Ended 2024 with a cash balance of $61.4 million, down from $232 million at the end of 2023.
Deferred Liftings to Q1 2025
Allocated liftings in Q4 2024 were deferred to Q1 2025, affecting year-end position.
Company Guidance
During the Africa Oil Corp. Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Presentation, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the future. The company reported returning $68 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, marking the largest annual return since its first dividend distribution in 2022. They anticipate a transformative event with the expected completion of the Prime deal by March 7, 2025, which would double reserves and production and implement a new annual base dividend of at least $100 million. In 2024, Prime achieved an average realized price of $84.6 per barrel, lifting 9 cargoes totaling 9 million barrels. Africa Oil recorded a net loss of $279.1 million due to a non-cash impairment in its investment in Prime but reported an EBITDAX of $242 million in Q4 2024. The company ended the year with a cash balance of $61.4 million and plans to present a consolidated 2025 production outlook post-Prime deal. Additionally, the Venus appraisal program was successfully completed, with development planning underway and a final investment decision expected by mid-2026.

Africa Oil Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Africa Oil Corp. Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. announced an update on its share capital and voting rights following the issuance of 762,907 common shares. This issuance was part of a residual settlement of performance share units linked to the consolidation of Prime Oil & Gas Coöperatief U.A shareholding. As of April 30, 2025, Africa Oil has 675,436,334 common shares issued and outstanding. This update reflects the company’s strategic consolidation efforts and may have implications for its market positioning and shareholder engagement.

Spark’s Take on TSE:AOI Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:AOI is a Underperform.

Africa Oil faces significant financial challenges with a lack of revenue and negative cash flows, impacting its sustainability. While strategic developments and a high dividend yield offer some positives, the overall financial distress and technical weakness weigh heavily on the score.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:AOI stock, click here.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Africa Oil Updates Share Capital and Announces AGM Date
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. has updated its share capital and voting rights following the issuance of over 239 million common shares to BTG Pactual Oil & Gas and the settlement of share units, resulting in a total of 674,673,427 common shares with voting rights as of March 31, 2025. The company has also announced its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will take place on June 12, 2025. These changes reflect Africa Oil’s ongoing strategic consolidation efforts and may influence shareholder dynamics and market perception.

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Africa Oil Completes Transformational Deal and Declares Dividend
Positive
Mar 20, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. has completed a significant amalgamation with Prime Oil & Gas, consolidating its shareholding and declaring a quarterly dividend of USD 25 million as part of an enlarged base dividend policy. This strategic move is expected to double the company’s reserves and production, strengthen its balance sheet, and enhance its capacity for shareholder returns. The company aims to leverage its increased scale and financial strength to pursue growth opportunities, positioning itself as a leading full-cycle exploration and production company. The introduction of BTG Pactual Oil & Gas as a major shareholder is anticipated to further support Africa Oil’s strategic objectives and capital allocation.

Stock Buyback
Africa Oil Corp. Reports Progress in Share Buyback Program
Positive
Mar 3, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. has announced the results of its share buyback program, repurchasing a total of 882,000 common shares between February 24 and February 28, 2025. The repurchases were conducted on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stockholm. This initiative is part of a broader plan announced in December 2024, allowing for the repurchase of up to 18,362,364 shares over a twelve-month period. The cancellation of repurchased shares has resulted in a total of 433,296,117 common shares with voting rights as of February 28, 2025. This move is expected to impact the company’s market positioning by potentially increasing shareholder value and optimizing capital structure.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Africa Oil Releases 2024 Annual Filings
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. has published its 2024 Annual Filings Document, which is now available for download on the company’s website. This release is part of the company’s compliance with the Swedish Markets Act and reflects its ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence. The publication of these filings may impact stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction.

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Africa Oil Corp. Reports Transformative 2024 with Strategic Consolidation and Record Shareholder Returns
Positive
Feb 28, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. announced its 2024 fourth quarter and full-year financial results, highlighting a transformative year with strategic initiatives that strengthened its business proposition. The company is set to complete the consolidation of Prime Oil & Gas, which will enhance its scale and financial strength, allowing for increased shareholder returns. The reorganization is expected to double reserves and production, enabling Africa Oil to significantly increase its annual dividend distribution. The company returned a record $67.9 million to shareholders in 2024 and plans to continue this trend with a robust cash balance and strategic investments in the Namibian Orange Basin.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Africa Oil Corp. Advances Share Buyback Program with Recent Repurchases
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. has announced the results of its recent share buyback program, which saw the company repurchasing a total of 804,400 common shares between February 17, 2025, and February 21, 2025. These repurchases, conducted on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stockholm, contribute to a cumulative total of 7,556,153 shares repurchased since December 6, 2024. This move is part of a larger initiative to buy back up to 18,362,364 shares by December 5, 2025, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Africa Oil Announces New Share Trading on Nasdaq Stockholm
Positive
Feb 21, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. has published a Swedish prospectus for the trading of 239,828,655 new common shares on Nasdaq Stockholm, following an agreement with BTG Pactual Oil & Gas to consolidate their holdings in Prime Oil & Gas Coöperatief U.A. The prospectus, approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, marks a significant step in Africa Oil’s strategic consolidation efforts, potentially enhancing its market presence and offering stakeholders new investment opportunities.

Financial Disclosures
Africa Oil Corp. to Announce Q4 2024 Results
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. announced it will release its fourth quarter 2024 financial results on February 27, 2025, after the Toronto market closes. The company will also host a conference call on February 28, 2025, to discuss these results, which will impact stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s operational and financial performance, potentially affecting its market positioning.

Stock Buyback
Africa Oil Corp. Advances Share Buyback Program with Over 838,000 Shares Repurchased
Positive
Feb 17, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. has announced the repurchase of 838,300 common shares between February 10 and February 14, 2025, as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This initiative aligns with regulatory standards and involves repurchases on the Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stockholm. All repurchased shares will be cancelled, and to date, 6,751,753 shares have been repurchased since the program’s inception. The initiative is expected to enhance shareholder value and streamline the company’s capital structure.

Stock Buyback
Africa Oil Advances Share Buyback Program with New Repurchases
Positive
Feb 10, 2025

Africa Oil Corp. announced the repurchase of 781,753 common shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program from February 3 to February 7, 2025. The buyback, which is in accordance with international regulations and local stock exchange rules, aims to repurchase up to 18,362,364 shares by December 2025, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception positively.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.