TriplePoint Venture Growth (TPVG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $212.58M
• Dividend Yield: 17.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 423.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 206.13%
• EPS Growth: 298.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 40,491,146
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 534,180
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 423,945
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.71
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.68
• 1Y Price Target: $5.83
• Price Target Upside: 11.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.94
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $92.81M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(4.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is held back primarily by inconsistent financial performance and cash-flow volatility, plus weak technicals with the stock trading below major moving averages. Offsetting factors include supportive earnings-call updates on liquidity/capital actions and origination momentum, and a very high dividend yield, though earnings-based valuation is unclear given the reported P/E of 0.0.

Positive Factors

Origination momentum & large pipeline

TriplePoint materially scaled originations in 2025 (>$508M commitments, $287M funded) with a >$2.0B pipeline. Sustained origination throughput increases interest and fee income potential, diversifies borrower exposure, and raises revenue visibility for multiple quarters if underwriting and funding execution continue.

Strengthened liquidity & liability profile

Management extended and increased near-term liquidity, refinanced maturing notes and issued new senior notes while keeping revolver capacity. These actions lengthen maturities, reduce immediate refinancing risk and leave leverage at manageable levels, improving solvency and strategic flexibility over the next several quarters.

Sponsor alignment & adviser fee relief

Sponsor share purchases and an extended adviser fee waiver materially align incentives and reduce operating drag. Fee relief increased reported net investment income and improves distributable earnings durability, while sponsor stock buying signals commitment that can stabilize capital support during portfolio realizations.

Negative Factors

Portfolio yield compression

A 200bp decline in portfolio yield in one year reduces net interest margins and long-term earning power absent offsetting cost reductions or higher volumes. As yields moderate because of mix shifts and lower base rates, durable earnings per dollar invested will be lower and require sustained origination growth to offset margin erosion.

Cash-flow & profitability volatility

Inconsistent operating and free cash flows—large positive flows in 2023–24 followed by a sharp negative in 2025—and erratic profit history undermine the predictability of distributions and reinvestment. This variability stems from timing of realizations, prepayments and credit outcomes, making capital planning and dividend coverage less durable.

Credit workouts & equity/warrant realization risk

Active credit restructurings and recoveries (e.g., Frubana, NA‑KD) create uncertainty over timing and magnitude of recoveries and can lock value in equity or illiquid instruments. Such workouts and unrealized equity/warrant exposures increase NAV volatility and delay cash realizations, constraining durable upside from equity-linked positions.

TriplePoint Venture Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. is a business development company specializing investments in venture capital-backed companies at the growth stage investments. It also provides debt financing to venture growth space companies which includes growth capital loans, secured and customized loans, equipment financings, revolving loans and direct equity investments. The fund seeks to invest in e-commerce, entertainment, technology and life sciences sector. Within technology the areas of focus include: Security, wireless communication equipments, network system and software, business applications software, conferencing equipments/services .big data, cloud computing, data storage, electronics, energy efficiency, hardware, information services, internet and media, networking, semiconductors, software, software as a service, and other technology related subsectors and within life sciences the areas of focus include: biotechnology, bio fuels/bio mass, diagnostic testing and bioinformatics, drug delivery, drug discovery, healthcare information systems, healthcare services, medical, surgical and therapeutic devices, pharmaceuticals and other life science related subsectors. Within growth capital loans it invests between $5 million and $50 million, for equipment financings it invests between $5 million and $25 million, for revolving loans it invests between $1 million and $25 million, and for direct equity investments it may invest between $0.1 million and $5 million (generally not exceeding 5% of the company's total equity). The debt financing products are typically structured as lines of credit and it invests through warrants and secured loans. It targeted returns between 10% and 18%. It does not take board seat in the company.

How the Company Makes Money

TPVG generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and financing solutions provided to venture growth stage companies. The company earns money by charging interest on the loans and credit facilities it provides, as well as through origination and other fees associated with its financing activities. TPVG's earnings are also influenced by its ability to maintain strong relationships with venture capital firms, which often refer high-quality investment opportunities, and by managing the credit risk of its portfolio effectively.

TriplePoint Venture Growth Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth improved in 2024–2025, and leverage metrics appear better, but results are erratic: large losses in 2022–2023, a sharp profitability rebound in 2024, then 2025 shows zero reported profit despite higher revenue. Cash flow also swung from strong positive in 2023–2024 to negative in 2025, raising durability concerns.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2024 (+10.9%) and accelerated further in 2025 (+36.9%), but profitability is highly volatile. After large losses in 2022–2023 (deeply negative margins), 2024 showed a sharp recovery with strong net profitability (~45% net margin). However, 2025 reports zero profit and zero margins despite higher revenue, which raises questions about earnings quality/consistency and makes the trend less dependable.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially: debt-to-equity moved down from 1.76x (2023) to 1.15x (2024), and 2025 shows no reported debt with equity up to ~$354M (supportive for solvency if accurate). That said, the company has historically operated with meaningful leverage and returns on equity have swung from negative (2022–2023) to positive (2024) and then back to zero in 2025, highlighting uneven underlying performance.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. Operating and free cash flow were strong and positive in 2023–2024 (including a large ~$153M in 2024), but flipped sharply negative in 2025 to about -$57M, with a steep free-cash-flow decline versus the prior year. Earlier years also show sizable cash burn (2021–2022), so overall cash-flow stability remains a key risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	97.21M	71.19M	5.97M	13.39M	100.74M
Gross Profit	81.18M	45.53M	-27.07M	-9.51M	87.35M
EBITDA	75.73M	32.05M	-39.82M	-20.07M	76.56M
Net Income	49.21M	32.05M	-39.82M	-20.07M	76.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	839.65M	763.04M	978.83M	1.01B	927.67M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.36M	45.90M	153.33M	51.49M	51.27M
Total Debt	469.08M	398.83M	607.90M	566.98M	467.50M
Total Liabilities	486.03M	417.35M	632.52M	594.59M	493.18M
Stockholders Equity	353.62M	345.69M	346.31M	419.94M	434.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-57.03M	152.92M	49.23M	-100.89M	-144.68M
Operating Cash Flow	-57.03M	152.92M	49.23M	-100.89M	-144.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-77.11M	0.00	56.92M	-421.00M	-417.37M
Financing Cash Flow	25.67M	-245.78M	6.17M	101.00M	159.15M

TriplePoint Venture Growth Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPVG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.46, below the 50-day MA of 5.97, and below the 200-day MA of 6.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPVG.

TriplePoint Venture Growth Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TRIN	66 Neutral	$1.23B	7.49	14.09%	13.53%	33.44%	25.22%
LIEN	64 Neutral	$227.75M	6.78	10.94%	13.03%	315.14%	116.85%
SSSS	62 Neutral	$257.97M	―	35.45%	5.39%	―	―
PNNT	59 Neutral	$311.46M	10.64	5.42%	16.61%	-3.09%	200.66%
TPVG	52 Neutral	$212.58M	5.35	14.02%	17.28%	206.13%	298.86%
SCM	50 Neutral	$274.13M	―	0.03%	12.83%	90.34%	-44.25%

TriplePoint Venture Growth Corporate Events

TriplePoint Venture Growth Reports Strong 2025 Investment Income

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. reported on March 4, 2026 that it achieved net investment income of $42.3 million, or $1.05 per share, for fiscal 2025 and a net increase in net assets from operations of $1.22 per share, supported by strong portfolio yields and expanded originations. Over 2025, the firm grew its investment portfolio to $783.5 million, increased the number of debt portfolio companies to 55, modestly lifted net asset value to $8.73 per share, and paid $1.08 per share in total dividends, while securing an extended and cheaper revolving credit facility, maintaining an investment-grade rating, and refinancing upcoming unsecured debt with new investment-grade notes, steps that collectively strengthen its balance sheet and position it for continued growth in venture lending.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPVG) stock is a Buy with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TriplePoint Venture Growth stock, see the TPVG Stock Forecast page.

TriplePoint Venture Growth Refinances 2026 Notes, Enhancing Flexibility

On February 27, 2026, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. entered into a $75 million master note purchase agreement for senior unsecured notes due February 27, 2028, carrying a fixed annual interest rate of 7.50% and sold in a private placement to a qualified institutional investor. The notes, which rank pari passu with the company’s other unsecured unsubordinated debt, feature quarterly interest payments, optional redemption provisions, change-of-control prepayment rights, and interest step-ups tied to credit rating and secured debt metrics.

On March 2, 2026, the company applied the proceeds from the new Series 2026 notes, together with borrowings from its revolving credit facility and cash on hand, to fully repay at maturity its $200 million 4.50% unsecured notes due March 2026, including accrued interest. The associated covenants, including a minimum asset coverage ratio and minimum stockholders’ equity thresholds, reinforce balance sheet discipline and regulatory status requirements, underscoring TriplePoint’s efforts to actively manage its liability profile and maintain financial flexibility in a higher-rate environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPVG) stock is a Buy with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TriplePoint Venture Growth stock, see the TPVG Stock Forecast page.