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TPG (TPG)
NASDAQ:TPG

TPG (TPG) AI Stock Analysis

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TPTPG
(NASDAQ:TPG)
58Neutral
TPG's overall score reflects its strong strategic growth initiatives and solid balance sheet, countered by profitability issues and bearish technical indicators. The company's ambitious plans for AUM growth and strategic expansions are promising, but current valuation concerns and technical weaknesses weigh on the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Q4/24 results above expectations with $0.62 in after-tax distributable earnings per share.
Growth Potential
TPG has a strong growth potential with expectations to double its assets under management to $500 billion through a combination of organic and inorganic strategies.
Negative Factors
Stock Performance
TPG shares underperformed the general market, with shortfalls mainly involving decreases for management fees and fee AUM below consensus.

TPG (TPG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

TPG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTPG is a leading global alternative asset management firm with a focus on private equity, growth equity, real estate, credit, and public equity. The company operates across multiple sectors, including healthcare, technology, consumer products, and financial services, offering a range of investment strategies to its clients. TPG is known for its active management approach and its ability to create value through strategic investments and operational improvements.
How the Company Makes MoneyTPG makes money primarily through managing private investment funds and earning fees from investors. The company's revenue streams include management fees, which are a percentage of the total assets under management, and performance fees, which are earned when the investment returns exceed a predetermined benchmark. TPG also generates income from strategic partnerships and co-investments with institutional investors, enhancing its ability to deploy capital effectively across diverse sectors. Additionally, the firm earns returns from its direct investments and successful exits, including the sale of portfolio companies or assets.

TPG Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TPG exhibits strong operational efficiencies and a robust balance sheet with no debt. However, profitability issues and cash flow fluctuations present challenges. The mixed financial performance is underscored by a negative net profit margin despite positive free cash flow.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
TPG's revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable increase in 2024 compared to 2023. However, the net profit margin is negative due to a net loss in 2024, indicating challenges in profitability. The EBIT margin improved significantly in 2024, reflecting better operational efficiency despite previous losses.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
TPG has a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, indicating no reliance on debt financing in 2024. The equity ratio is moderate, reflecting a stable financial position. However, fluctuations in stockholders' equity over the years suggest potential volatility.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The free cash flow was positive in 2024, showcasing good cash generation ability. The operating cash flow is strong compared to net income, which is a positive indicator. However, the decline in free cash flow growth in 2024 compared to previous periods points to some challenges in maintaining cash flow momentum.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.50B1.82B1.90B5.56B2.25B
Gross Profit
3.50B-524.10M-92.23M4.62B2.21B
EBIT
0.00-434.01M146.52M2.03B937.36M
EBITDA
198.07M0.00179.51M0.001.11B
Net Income Common Stockholders
23.48M80.09M-56.23M4.66B1.44B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
808.02M678.37M1.11B978.10M861.92M
Total Assets
10.54B9.37B7.94B8.96B7.00B
Total Debt
0.001.26B444.57M621.45M490.63M
Net Debt
-808.02M585.55M-668.01M-356.65M-371.30M
Total Liabilities
6.94B6.01B4.86B1.70B1.48B
Stockholders Equity
3.59B579.16M509.67M1.61B2.46B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
504.01M703.79M1.37B1.47B-20.16M
Operating Cash Flow
532.15M720.52M1.38B1.47B95.39M
Investing Cash Flow
-44.47M-373.56M-3.01M-37.74M-108.10M
Financing Cash Flow
-344.86M-789.23M-1.24B-1.32B250.33M

TPG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price49.08
Price Trends
50DMA
61.36
Negative
100DMA
63.75
Negative
200DMA
55.37
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.57
Positive
RSI
22.71
Positive
STOCH
18.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.17, below the 50-day MA of 61.36, and below the 200-day MA of 55.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.71 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPG.

TPG Risk Analysis

TPG disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TPG reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TPG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
APAPO
73
Outperform
$76.89B18.8128.29%1.37%-20.40%-13.30%
KKKKR
67
Neutral
$103.15B35.4413.23%0.60%42.19%-18.20%
66
Neutral
$48.37B74.0515.93%2.42%6.12%-15.84%
BXBX
65
Neutral
$185.29B41.9836.95%2.71%21.25%97.42%
64
Neutral
$14.34B10.619.28%4.07%18.04%-9.54%
TPTPG
58
Neutral
$18.09B0.05%3.55%86.74%-85.88%
TSBAM
54
Neutral
C$124.40B50.7621.63%2.73%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TPG
TPG
49.08
6.43
15.08%
APO
Apollo Global Management
132.40
25.14
23.44%
KKR
KKR & Co
115.27
18.44
19.04%
BX
Blackstone Group
145.15
23.80
19.61%
ARES
Ares Management
154.96
25.68
19.86%
TSE:BAM
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. Class A
75.98
21.33
39.03%

TPG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -20.60% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted TPG's significant achievements in fundraising, investment performance, and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in climate and infrastructure. However, there were challenges with fee-earning AUM growth and delayed fee activation for new funds. Overall, the positive aspects and strategic progress outweigh the challenges.
Highlights
Record Fundraising Achievement
TPG exceeded its fundraising targets by raising $30 billion in 2024, a 54% increase from 2023 on a pro forma basis.
Strong Investment Performance
TPG's private equity portfolio appreciated more than 3% in the fourth quarter and 10% over the last twelve months, with revenue growth of approximately 16% over the last twelve months.
Successful Integration and Growth Post-Acquisition
Successfully integrated the acquisition of Angelo Gordon, realizing revenue synergies and opportunities for business growth as one fully integrated firm.
Strong Deployment and Realization Activities
TPG deployed $33 billion and realized $23 billion across the firm in 2024, with realizations increasing 50% from 2023 on a pro forma basis.
Expansion into Infrastructure and Climate Strategies
Launched the RISE Climate Transition Infrastructure Fund with $2 billion in anchor commitments and expanded the RISE Climate franchise into new asset classes.
Increased Capital Markets Revenue
Reported step-function growth in capital markets revenue in 2024, driven by expanded product expertise and integration of the broker-dealer across platforms.
Lowlights
Fee-Earning AUM Growth Challenges
Fee-earning AUM of $141 billion at the end of 2024 grew only approximately 3% versus year-end 2023 due to timing-related factors.
Delay in Fee Activation for New Funds
The fee base in the first RISE Climate Fund stepped down to actively invested capital with delayed activations affecting management fee growth.
Impact of Market Conditions on Fundraising
Some elongation in fundraising cycles due to market conditions, impacting the timing of capital inflows.
Company Guidance
During TPG's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided comprehensive guidance for the upcoming year, highlighting several key financial metrics and strategic priorities. TPG reported GAAP net income of $13 million and after-tax distributable earnings of $261 million, equating to $0.62 per Class A common stock. The firm declared a dividend of $0.53 per share, payable on March 7, 2025. TPG raised $30 billion in 2024, a 54% increase from the previous year, and deployed $33 billion while realizing $23 billion across the firm. For 2025, TPG aims to raise significantly more capital, with plans to expand its client relationships, particularly in private wealth, and to launch a new evergreen private equity vehicle. The company is targeting assets under management (AUM) growth, aspiring to double its current AUM of nearly $250 billion in the coming years. The focus will be on growing core strategies, driving organic innovation, pursuing inorganic acquisitions, enhancing private wealth penetration, and expanding insurance partnerships.

TPG Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
TPG Strengthens Board with New Independent Director
Positive
Jan 15, 2025

On January 15, 2025, TPG Inc. appointed Kathy Elsesser as an independent director as part of its strategic transition to a majority independent board. Elsesser, who brings over three decades of experience from Goldman Sachs, will serve on the Audit and Compensation Committees, enhancing TPG’s corporate governance and positioning as a leader in the alternative asset management industry.

Executive/Board Changes
TPG Announces Major Board of Directors Restructure
Neutral
Dec 20, 2024

TPG Inc. announced a significant change in its corporate governance structure as part of an ongoing transition to a board with a majority of independent directors. The planned departure of Maya Chorengel, Jonathan Coslet, and Jack Weingart from the Board of Directors marks a step in reducing the number of management directors, though they will continue in their roles as officers or employees, indicating no disruption to their contributions to the company.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.