Oncology Institute (TOI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $328.15M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.47
• Revenue Growth: 21.67%
• EPS Growth: 16.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 825
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 98,839,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,256,919
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,952,711
• PEG Ratio: 2.27
• Price to Book (P/B): -209.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.54
• P/FCF Ratio: -118.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.01
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: 81.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $636.18M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.50 ▼(-9.09% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, cash burn, and negative equity). Offsetting that, technicals are constructive with the stock trading above major moving averages, and the latest earnings call/guidance supports improving fundamentals (positive adjusted EBITDA targeted in 2026 and progress toward free-cash-flow breakeven). Valuation remains constrained by the negative P/E and lack of dividend support.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Scale

TOI has meaningfully scaled revenue over several years, surpassing $500M in 2025. Durable top-line growth supports negotiating leverage with payers, spreads fixed costs over a larger base and funds investments in care models, improving the odds of sustained profitability as scale benefits accrue.

Growing Capitated/Delegated Revenue

Expansion of capitated and delegated contracts shifts revenue toward recurring, prospective payments and aligns incentives to manage total cost of care. This structural change can stabilize cash flows, improve margin predictability, and deepen payer relationships as capitation scale increases over the medium term.

Operating Leverage & SG&A Discipline

Management has reduced SG&A intensity and targets further declines driven by scale and AI efficiencies. If sustained, lower SG&A as a percent of revenue provides durable margin expansion potential, supporting the company's path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven and eventual free cash flow positivity.

Negative Factors

Negative Equity / Weakened Capitalization

The move to negative shareholders' equity signals cumulative losses or write-downs and reduces financial flexibility. Persistent negative equity can constrain access to capital, increase borrowing costs, complicate covenant compliance and limit ability to pursue inorganic growth without dilutive financing.

Ongoing Cash Burn

Multi-year negative operating and free cash flow necessitate external financing to fund operations and growth. Continued cash burn elevates refinancing and dilution risk, limits strategic optionality and makes the company vulnerable to adverse funding conditions until sustained FCF positivity is achieved.

High Pharmacy/Dispensing Concentration

More than half of recent revenues derive from pharmacy/dispensing, concentrating reimbursement and margin exposure. Structural reliance increases sensitivity to drug pricing, payer contract changes and regulatory shifts, which could materially affect earnings and cash flow unless the business diversifies revenue streams.

Oncology Institute Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Oncology Institute, Inc., an oncology company, provides medical oncology services in the United States. Its services include physician services, in-house infusion and dispensary, clinical trial services, radiation, outpatient stem cell transplants and transfusions programs, and patient support. The company also offers and manages clinical trial services, such as managing clinical trials, palliative care programs, and stem cell transplants services. It serves adult and senior cancer patients. The company operates 67 clinic locations. The Oncology Institute, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Cerritos, California.

How the Company Makes Money

TOI primarily makes money by providing oncology and related clinical services and being reimbursed by commercial insurers, Medicare, and other payers under both traditional and value-based arrangements. A major revenue stream is fee-for-service reimbursement for professional services (e.g., physician/advanced practitioner visits, care management) and for infusion-center services where treatment is administered in an outpatient setting. Another important revenue stream is derived from value-based care contracts (including risk-sharing arrangements) with health plans and other payers; under these models, TOI can earn care-management fees and/or performance-based payments if it meets cost and quality targets for defined patient populations, and it may also bear financial risk if costs exceed agreed benchmarks. The company’s earnings are therefore influenced by (1) patient volumes and site-of-care mix (clinic/infusion utilization), (2) negotiated payer reimbursement rates and contract structure, (3) its ability to manage total cost of care under risk-based/value-based contracts, and (4) relationships with payers and affiliated provider networks that drive patient access and contracted membership. Specific contract terms, individual payer partners, and precise revenue breakdowns: null.

Oncology Institute Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials remain pressured: losses persist, operating profitability is negative, and cash flow is still meaningfully negative despite some improvement. The 2025 move to negative equity increases balance-sheet risk and reduces financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time (from ~$188M in 2020 to ~$503M in 2025, with 2025 growth of ~9%), but profitability remains weak. Net losses persist in most years (2025 net margin ~-12% vs. ~-16% in 2024), and operating profitability is still negative (2025 EBITDA margin ~-8%). Gross margin also shows volatility and appears to have deteriorated in the latest year (2025 gross profit reported at 0), which raises questions around cost structure and/or reporting quality. Overall: improving loss profile versus prior years, but not yet demonstrating a sustainable path to earnings.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet risk is elevated due to a shift to negative equity in 2025 (stockholders’ equity ~-$15.7M), which weakens financial flexibility. Debt is relatively low in 2025 (~$26.3M) versus 2024 (~$123.2M), but leverage metrics become less meaningful with negative equity and still signal strain. Total assets are fairly stable (~$165M in 2025), yet the erosion from positive equity in 2022–2024 to negative equity in 2025 suggests cumulative losses and/or balance sheet write-downs are pressuring capitalization.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently negative: operating cash flow is a multi-year outflow (about -$24.6M in 2025 and -$26.5M in 2024), and free cash flow remains meaningfully negative (about -$27.8M in 2025). While the cash burn rate has improved compared with 2022–2023, the company is still not funding operations internally, implying ongoing reliance on external financing or balance sheet actions. A positive note is that free cash flow has been improving year over year recently, but it remains below breakeven.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	502.73M	393.41M	324.24M	252.48M	203.00M
Gross Profit	69.49M	54.00M	59.57M	52.09M	40.85M
EBITDA	-29.14M	-53.83M	-54.28M	-67.60M	-42.04M
Net Income	-60.61M	-64.66M	-83.07M	152.00K	-10.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	164.66M	172.72M	209.24M	261.67M	203.44M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	33.56M	49.67M	82.86M	73.81M	114.30M
Total Debt	103.69M	123.15M	119.67M	108.18M	183.00K
Total Liabilities	180.38M	169.13M	152.22M	138.49M	99.28M
Stockholders Equity	-15.72M	3.59M	57.02M	123.17M	104.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-27.79M	-30.33M	-40.88M	-67.28M	-35.73M
Operating Cash Flow	-24.59M	-26.54M	-36.31M	-61.76M	-32.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.07M	46.21M	62.64M	-131.61M	-12.15M
Financing Cash Flow	11.56M	-3.49M	-6.85M	92.21M	154.01M

Oncology Institute Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.95, above the 50-day MA of 3.00, and above the 200-day MA of 3.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TOI.

Oncology Institute Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TALK	70 Outperform	$858.77M	78.45	6.89%	―	18.37%	―
EHAB	65 Neutral	$690.85M	-101.82	-0.84%	―	1.02%	89.58%
CYH	60 Neutral	$400.63M	0.82	-31.57%	―	0.74%	―
CCRN	55 Neutral	$296.69M	-2.77	-24.30%	―	-22.14%	-787.87%
TOI	54 Neutral	$328.15M	―	759.71%	―	21.67%	16.74%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AGL	43 Neutral	$176.86M	―	-116.65%	―	5.21%	5.21%

Oncology Institute Corporate Events

Oncology Institute Updates Investors With New Presentation

The Oncology Institute, Inc. has prepared a new investor presentation for use in meetings with current and prospective investors, signaling an effort to update the market on its business and financial outlook. The materials were furnished in connection with a Form 8-K filing but were explicitly designated as furnished rather than filed, limiting their exposure to certain securities law liabilities and indicating a more flexible investor-communication tool.

By structuring the investor presentation as furnished information, the company maintains disclosure to the market while reducing potential legal risks tied to the Exchange Act’s reporting provisions. This approach underscores a cautious stance toward regulatory exposure while still aiming to engage stakeholders with detailed, supplemental information about its operations and strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.

Oncology Institute Adds Independent Director to Board

The Oncology Institute, Inc., a leading U.S. value-based oncology group with over 100 clinics and affiliate locations across five states, delivers specialized, evidence-based cancer care and clinical trials to about 1.9 million patients. Operating in community settings with more than 180 clinicians, it aims to expand access to advanced oncology services while maintaining a focus on cost-effective, integrated care.

On February 23, 2026, The Oncology Institute appointed healthcare executive Kim Tzoumakas to its Board of Directors to fill a vacancy, confirming her independence under Nasdaq rules and eligibility for the company’s standard non-employee director pay and equity program. Her background in oncology, pharmacy services, operational turnarounds and integrated care models is expected to support TOI’s expansion of its care delivery and pharmacy businesses, potentially strengthening strategic execution and governance for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.

Oncology Institute Adds Independent Director and Audit Chair

On January 2, 2026, The Oncology Institute, Inc. filled a vacancy on its board of directors by appointing Mark D. Stolper, a veteran public-company executive and current CFO of RadNet, Inc., as an independent director and chairman of the audit committee, a move publicly announced on January 5, 2026. Stolper, who will serve as the audit committee’s designated financial expert and participate in the company’s standard non-employee director compensation program, brings extensive capital markets, financial planning, and healthcare services experience that is expected to bolster TOI’s financial oversight and support its next phase of growth in value-based oncology care.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.