Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $163.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.45
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 46.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 97
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 216,998,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,873,734
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,003,933
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.56
• 1Y Price Target: $4.20
• Price Target Upside: 215.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.46
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.75 ▼(-43.53% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, large losses, and sustained cash burn despite some improvement), partially offset by improving near-term technical momentum. Corporate events are mixed, with the Alnylam collaboration supportive but tempered by Nasdaq deficiency risk, while valuation is limited by negative earnings and no indicated dividend.

Positive Factors

Strategic Alnylam collaboration

The Alnylam collaboration structurally shifts downstream clinical, manufacturing and commercialization costs to a partner while giving Tenaya discovery funding and substantial milestone upside. This model reduces capital intensity, extends program runway and aligns incentives long-term if targets progress.

Low leverage and equity capital

A low-debt capital structure preserves financial flexibility and reduces fixed interest obligations, helping Tenaya sustain R&D investment during clinical development. Meaningful equity capital supports partnership negotiations and absorbes losses without immediate insolvency risk, aiding multi-quarter resilience.

Focused cardiovascular gene therapy pipeline

Tenaya's concentrated focus on precision cardiovascular therapeutics targets large unmet medical need and leverages specialist expertise. A differentiated pipeline in gene therapy builds technical barriers, supports premium licensing opportunities and creates durable upside if clinical readouts validate mechanisms.

Negative Factors

No revenue, persistent losses

Absent product revenues, Tenaya remains dependent on non-commercial funding and partnership payments. Persistent operating losses erode equity over time, constrain reinvestment capacity and increase the probability of dilutive financings unless a program advances to commercialization or material partner payments are realized.

Sustained negative cash flow

Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow creates structural funding needs and limits strategic optionality. Even with year-over-year improvement, continued burn means management must secure external capital or milestone funding, which can dilute shareholders or constrain long-term program investment choices.

Nasdaq deficiency and larger equity pool

A listing deficiency creates an overhang and potential delisting risk that could impair liquidity and capital access. Simultaneously enlarging the equity award pool signals reliance on stock-based compensation and recruitment, increasing future dilution risk and complicating long-term shareholder value preservation.

Tenaya Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and delivers therapies for heart disease in the United States. It develops its products through cellular regeneration, gene therapy, and precision medicine platforms. The company is developing TN-201, an adeno-associated virus (AAV)-based gene therapy to address genetic hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (gHCM) caused by haploinsufficient myosin binding protein C3 (MYBPC3) gene mutations; and TN-301, a small molecule inhibitor of histone deacetylase 6 (HDAC6i) for use in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and genetic dilated cardiomyopathy (gDCM). It is also developing TN-401, an AAV-based gene therapy that addresses genetic arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (gARVC) caused by plakophilin 2 (PKP2) gene mutations; an AAV-based gene therapy designed to deliver the dwarf open reading frame (DWORF) gene in the heart for DCM; and Reprogramming program, an AAV-based approach for cardiac regeneration to replace heart cells lost in patients experiencing heart failure due to prior myocardial infarction. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Tenaya Therapeutics primarily generates revenue from collaboration and partnership arrangements rather than product sales, as it is a clinical-stage company and does not have approved commercial products. Its revenue model is typically driven by payments received under strategic collaborations (for example, upfront payments, research funding/reimbursements, and potential development, regulatory, and commercial milestone payments), and may also include royalties on future partnered product sales if partnered programs reach commercialization. In addition to collaboration-related revenue, Tenaya funds operations through capital raising (such as equity financings), which supports R&D but is not recorded as revenue. Specific current partners, deal terms, and the mix of collaboration revenue versus other sources: null.

Tenaya Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating fundamentals remain very weak with $0 revenue and persistent large net losses, plus ongoing negative operating and free cash flow despite some improvement in 2025 burn. The balance sheet is a relative bright spot with low leverage, but continued losses raise ongoing funding and dilution risk.

Income Statement

The income statement remains very weak: revenue is consistently $0 across the period, with persistent heavy operating and net losses. Losses improved in 2025 versus 2024 (net loss narrowed from about $111M to $91M), but profitability is still deeply negative and there is no visible top-line traction in the provided data, keeping overall earnings quality and margin profile poor.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.09 in 2025) and meaningful equity capital, providing financial flexibility. However, equity has declined materially from 2021–2022 levels, and returns on equity remain sharply negative due to ongoing losses—signaling continued balance-sheet erosion risk if the burn rate persists.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is pressured by sustained cash burn: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative every year shown. There was improvement in 2025 versus 2024 (operating cash flow burn reduced from about -$91M to -$68M; free cash flow burn similarly improved), but 2025 free cash flow growth is sharply negative and ongoing negative free cash flow means the company likely remains dependent on external funding absent a step-change in revenue or cost structure.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-8.44M	-8.47M	-8.69M	-8.71M	-4.03M
EBITDA	-84.89M	-102.66M	-115.40M	-114.95M	-68.70M
Net Income	-90.60M	-111.13M	-124.08M	-123.67M	-72.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	146.92M	119.94M	170.51M	278.94M	316.65M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	100.55M	61.45M	104.64M	186.53M	251.30M
Total Debt	10.83M	13.61M	12.42M	15.10M	15.70M
Total Liabilities	23.66M	27.09M	31.09M	35.57M	38.12M
Stockholders Equity	123.27M	92.85M	139.42M	243.38M	278.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-68.88M	-91.53M	-103.31M	-125.05M	-85.93M
Operating Cash Flow	-68.26M	-90.50M	-102.07M	-104.42M	-60.81M
Investing Cash Flow	56.08M	1.13M	48.72M	83.65M	-238.56M
Financing Cash Flow	108.41M	47.75M	4.05M	77.77M	208.97M

Tenaya Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNYA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.75, above the 50-day MA of 0.74, and above the 200-day MA of 1.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TNYA.

Tenaya Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TECX	54 Neutral	$561.05M	-5.15	-26.87%	―	―	60.40%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
TNYA	50 Neutral	$163.01M	-1.20	-85.20%	―	―	46.68%
ABEO	47 Neutral	$253.87M	3.92	53.18%	―	―	―
VYGR	47 Neutral	$229.16M	-1.93	-48.94%	―	-80.88%	-388.61%
CADL	47 Neutral	$364.04M	-2.63	-51.44%	―	―	68.53%
GALT	46 Neutral	$177.32M	-8.32	32.59%	―	―	18.82%

Tenaya Therapeutics Corporate Events

Tenaya Therapeutics Announces Major Cardiovascular Gene Target Collaboration

On March 4, 2026, Tenaya Therapeutics entered into a collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to jointly discover and validate up to 15 novel gene targets for potential cardiovascular disease treatments over an initial 24‑month research period. Under the deal, Tenaya will conduct in vitro and in vivo validation work reimbursed by Alnylam within an agreed budget, while Alnylam assumes sole responsibility and cost for subsequent development, manufacturing, regulatory and commercialization activities for any resulting products.

Tenaya granted Alnylam an exclusive worldwide license to use Tenaya’s relevant intellectual property and know‑how for collaboration targets, subject to target‑by‑target continuation based on Alnylam initiating non‑human primate pharmacodynamic studies within a defined evaluation window. In return, Alnylam will pay Tenaya up to $10 million upfront, subject to reductions for certain targets, and Tenaya could receive up to $1.13 billion in development, regulatory and sales‑based milestone payments, positioning the company for significant potential upside while limiting its downstream cost exposure and locking in exclusivity constraints on certain targets during the collaboration term.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Sell with a $0.86 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.

Tenaya Therapeutics Faces Nasdaq Deficiency, Amends Equity Plan

On January 28, 2026, Tenaya Therapeutics disclosed that it had received a deficiency notice from Nasdaq after its common stock traded below the required $1.00 minimum bid price for 30 consecutive business days between December 12, 2025, and January 27, 2026, triggering a 180-day compliance period through July 27, 2026, during which it must restore its share price or risk potential delisting, with the possibility of an additional 180-day extension via transfer to the Nasdaq Capital Market if certain conditions are met. Separately, effective January 26, 2026, the company’s board amended and restated its 2024 Inducement Equity Incentive Plan to increase the share pool to 3,361,000 shares for equity awards used to recruit new employees or support mergers and acquisitions, underscoring Tenaya’s continued reliance on stock-based compensation to strengthen its workforce and strategic flexibility amid listing compliance pressures.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Hold with a $0.76 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.

Tenaya Therapeutics announces orderly board leadership transition

Tenaya Therapeutics announced that board member David Goeddel submitted his resignation from the company’s board of directors and all board committees on December 31, 2025, with the resignation to take effect on January 26, 2026, in connection with his retirement. The company emphasized that Goeddel’s departure was voluntary, not due to any disagreement over operations, policies or practices, and the board publicly thanked him for his service and contributions, signaling an orderly leadership transition rather than a governance dispute.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNYA) stock is a Hold with a $0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tenaya Therapeutics stock, see the TNYA Stock Forecast page.