Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
NASDAQ:TNDM

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) AI Stock Analysis

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Tandem Diabetes Care

(NASDAQ:TNDM)

56Neutral
Tandem Diabetes Care's overall stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, such as the launch of Control-IQ+ and expansion into the type 2 diabetes market. However, significant challenges remain in terms of profitability, leverage, and bearish technical indicators. The earnings call suggests positive long-term growth potential, yet near-term risks associated with execution and market conditions temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Growth Drivers
A slew of positive growth drivers, namely T2 label expansion, pharmacy expansion, and OUS momentum, may create upside to TNDM's largely conservative guidance.
Growth Prospects
The results of TNDM's type 2 trial are compelling and will help restore confidence in TNDM's growth prospects.
Market Opportunity
Diabetes is a huge, attractive market.
Negative Factors
Competition
New entrants, especially Beta Bionics, are intensifying competition for the #2 spot in the insulin pump market.
Financial Performance
Margins came in below expectations in Q4, which could stoke anxieties about Tandem’s path to positive EPS.
Stock Performance
TNDM's stock is down 40% since late February, pressured by concerns about share loss and the company's ability to hit its 2025 guidance.

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Tandem Diabetes Care Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTandem Diabetes Care, Inc., a medical device company, designs, develops, and commercializes various products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally. The company's flagship product is the t:slim X2 insulin delivery system, a pump platform that comprises t:slim X2 pump, its 300-unit disposable insulin cartridge, and an infusion set. It also provides t:slim X2 insulin with Basal-IQ and control IQ technology; t:slim X2 with G5 Integration; and Tandem Device Updater, a tool that allows users to update their pump's software. In addition, the company offers t:connect, a web-based data management application, which provides a visual way to display diabetes therapy management data from the pump, continuous glucose monitoring, and supported blood glucose meters for users, their caregivers, and their healthcare providers; and Sugarmate, a mobile app for people with diabetes who use insulin. It has development and commercialization agreements with Dexcom, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. The company was formerly known as Phluid Inc. and changed its name to Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. in January 2008. Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyTandem Diabetes Care generates revenue primarily through the sale of its insulin pump systems and associated supplies, such as cartridges and infusion sets. The company's flagship product line, the t:slim X2 insulin pump, is a key driver of its revenue. Additionally, Tandem offers software applications that integrate with its hardware to provide continuous glucose monitoring and data management services. Revenue is also derived from customer support services and training programs for healthcare providers and patients. Tandem's earnings are bolstered by strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies, facilitating broader access to its products. The company also invests in research and development to innovate and enhance its offerings, which can contribute to increased market share and revenue growth.

Tandem Diabetes Care Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tandem Diabetes Care shows strong revenue growth and improved cash flow health. However, profitability remains a concern with persistent net losses and negative operating margins. The balance sheet reflects increased leverage, though cash reserves offer some stability. Focus on enhancing operational efficiency and controlling debt levels could drive better financial performance.
Income Statement
67
Positive
Tandem Diabetes Care shows robust revenue growth with a 25.7% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss, with a net profit margin of -10.2% in 2024. Gross profit margin remains strong at 52.1%, but negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate challenges in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80, showing a reliance on debt. Stockholders' equity has decreased, impacting the equity ratio to 27.2%. Return on equity is negative at -36.5%, reflecting profitability challenges. However, the company maintains a healthy cash position relative to its debt.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
Cash flow has improved significantly, with free cash flow turning positive in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 0.25, indicating some efficiency in converting net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also positive, showing improved cash generation capabilities.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
940.20M747.72M801.22M702.80M498.83M
Gross Profit
489.57M367.69M412.99M376.21M260.52M
EBIT
-99.13M-233.23M-61.81M8.81M-7.96M
EBITDA
-99.13M-194.66M-72.31M36.50M-13.03M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-96.03M-222.61M-94.59M15.57M-34.38M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
438.33M467.91M616.90M623.81M484.94M
Total Assets
967.66M952.66M1.05B905.14M716.41M
Total Debt
473.56M415.67M419.88M314.67M228.32M
Net Debt
404.33M356.80M247.36M243.49M133.71M
Total Liabilities
704.56M639.03M612.84M472.02M350.11M
Stockholders Equity
263.10M313.63M439.95M433.11M366.31M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
4.99M-83.41M7.51M87.85M-7.63M
Operating Cash Flow
24.23M-31.81M50.46M111.36M24.67M
Investing Cash Flow
-23.48M-85.74M33.17M-186.88M-296.06M
Financing Cash Flow
8.37M4.11M16.88M51.93M314.44M

Tandem Diabetes Care Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price16.88
Price Trends
50DMA
26.42
Negative
100DMA
29.94
Negative
200DMA
35.18
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.09
Negative
RSI
30.13
Neutral
STOCH
14.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNDM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.22, below the 50-day MA of 26.42, and below the 200-day MA of 35.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TNDM.

Tandem Diabetes Care Risk Analysis

Tandem Diabetes Care disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tandem Diabetes Care reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tandem Diabetes Care Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ABABT
79
Outperform
$228.29B17.2330.95%1.80%4.59%134.50%
MDMDT
77
Outperform
$112.72B26.718.42%3.38%2.72%4.48%
76
Outperform
$18.03B42.3743.03%22.07%101.95%
61
Neutral
$24.15B42.0027.63%11.34%4.24%
56
Neutral
$1.12B-33.30%25.74%57.18%
56
Neutral
$1.95B31.314.87%8.33%256.54%
48
Neutral
$6.36B1.09-49.92%2.63%17.17%0.95%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care
16.88
-16.67
-49.69%
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
124.44
16.13
14.89%
DXCM
Dexcom
59.83
-80.11
-57.25%
PODD
Insulet
245.26
75.22
44.24%
MDT
Medtronic
82.88
2.68
3.34%
LIVN
LivaNova
35.95
-18.75
-34.28%

Tandem Diabetes Care Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -49.75% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, including record sales, the launch of the Control-IQ+ system, and expansion into the type 2 diabetes market. However, challenges remain with U.S. sales shortfalls, potential disruptions from sales force realignment, and international transition complexities. Overall, the positive developments and strategic initiatives indicate strong growth potential, though execution risks exist.
Highlights
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Tandem Diabetes achieved record annual worldwide sales of $910 million, marking an 18% increase year-over-year. Fourth quarter sales were also a record at $252 million.
Launch of Control-IQ+
The launch of Control-IQ+ is imminent, offering enhancements like superior glucose control and new clinical features, benefiting both type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients.
Type 2 Diabetes Market Expansion
Control-IQ+ received FDA clearance for use in adults with type 2 diabetes, doubling the addressable market in the U.S. and positioning Tandem for significant long-term growth.
International Sales Growth
Sales outside the U.S. grew by 39% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for the t:slim X2 pump, with plans to transition to direct operations in Europe by 2026.
Pharmacy Channel Progress
Tandem has approximately 20% of U.S. lives covered under pharmacy agreements, a strategic move to increase access and affordability for patients.
Lowlights
Fourth Quarter U.S. Sales Shortfall
The U.S. fourth quarter did not meet expectations due to muted seasonal demand and shipping delays, impacting revenue timing.
Potential Disruption from Sales Force Realignment
The U.S. sales force underwent a realignment and expansion, with potential short-term disruption as the team adjusts to new territories and strategies.
Challenges with International Transition
The transition to direct sales in select European countries may cause disruption and a potential $15 million to $20 million headwind.
Company Guidance
During the Tandem Diabetes Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance for 2025, highlighting key growth metrics and strategic initiatives. Tandem reported a record 2024 sales of $910 million, reflecting an 18% increase year-over-year, driven by strong pump shipments and operational efficiencies. The company anticipates worldwide sales in 2025 to range from $997 million to slightly over $1 billion, representing a 10% to 11% growth. In particular, U.S. sales are expected to grow 13% to 14%, supported by a strategic sales force expansion and enhanced market access through the Pharmacy channel, which now covers approximately 20% of U.S. lives. Tandem also emphasized its entry into the type 2 diabetes market, following FDA clearance of its Control-IQ+ algorithm for type 2 diabetes, which is expected to significantly expand its addressable market. Additionally, the company forecasts a 54% gross margin for 2025, driven by increased Mobi pump sales and efficiency initiatives. Tandem's strategic focus on innovation, including the integration with FreeStyle Libre 3 and the launch of new technology solutions, positions it for long-term growth and profitability.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.