Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $84.61M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 918.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: 7.90%
• EPS Growth: 19.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 477
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 64,590,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,009,218
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 918,480
• PEG Ratio: -0.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.04
• 1Y Price Target: $3.56
• Price Target Upside: 163.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.85
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $210.29M

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(11.11% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is held down primarily by persistent losses and negative free cash flow alongside a clear bearish technical trend (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation remains difficult due to negative earnings and no dividend, while the earnings call provides only partial offset via improved cash-burn trajectory and strong liquidity but with guidance implying flat-to-declining revenue and continued EBITDA losses.

Positive Factors

High gross margins

Sustained ~80% gross margins indicate durable product-level economics from proprietary implant and instrumentation sales. High gross margins provide structural operating leverage, enabling the firm to absorb SG&A while pursuing surgeon adoption and easing the path to eventual operating profitability as revenue recovers.

Surgeon adoption & TAM expansion

Rapid growth in active surgeons (≈1,300 to >3,300 since 2020) and early adoption of newly launched systems signal durable clinical adoption and network effects. Expanding product lines and planned launches broaden the addressable market and support recurring per-procedure revenue over time.

Improved liquidity and reduced leverage

Ending cash plus a sizable committed credit facility materially lengthen runway and reduce refinancing risk. Combined with reported debt reduction versus prior years, the stronger liquidity profile supports continued commercialization investments while lowering short-term solvency pressure.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow

Meaningful negative free cash flow on a trailing basis shows the business still requires external funding to sustain operations and launches. Persistent cash burn limits strategic optionality, risks future dilution or leverage, and constrains the firm’s ability to invest without continued financing.

Ongoing operating losses

Despite strong gross margins, operating expenses yield large negative operating margins and recurring adjusted EBITDA losses. This structural cost base prevents self-sustaining profitability, meaning improvements rely on sustained revenue recovery or permanent cost structural changes.

Revenue stagnation and product-mix headwind

Guidance implies flat-to-declining top line and management cites a shift to lower-ASP products and softer elective procedure volumes. Stalled revenue growth and adverse mix reduce operating leverage, slowing margin recovery and lengthening the timeline to consistent profitability.

Treace Medical Concepts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc., an orthopedic medical device company, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of medical devices for foot and ankle surgeons in the United States. It offers Lapiplasty procedure that allows podiatric surgeons to treat all three dimensions of the bunion, providing patients with a cosmetic and medical improvement. The company also provides Lapiplasty Mini-Incision precision system. In addition, it offers products to address ancillary surgical procedures, including akin osteotomies, weil osteotomies, intercuneiform stabilization, lesser tarsometatarsal joint fusions, and autograft bone harvesting, as well as for MTP fusion. Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

TMCI primarily makes money by selling its foot-and-ankle surgical products—implants, instrumentation, and related procedure-specific components—to hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers that perform bunion and midfoot correction procedures. Revenue is generated on a per-procedure basis as surgeons use TMCI’s proprietary systems (notably the Lapiplasty platform) and the corresponding fixation implants and surgical tools during operations, driving recurring demand tied to procedure volume. Additional revenue is derived from sales of other midfoot and foot/ankle fixation products within its broader portfolio. Specific details on pricing, gross-to-net adjustments, distributor arrangements, or material revenue contributions from particular partnerships are null.

Treace Medical Concepts Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High gross margins (~80%) and sharply reduced debt improve quality, but operating losses remain material (TTM operating margin ~-20%) and cash flow is still negative (TTM FCF about -$29M). Revenue growth appears to have stalled with slight TTM contraction, keeping overall financial strength weak despite some progress in burn reduction.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled rapidly from 2020–2024, but TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a slight contraction (down ~2.8%), suggesting growth has stalled near the ~$210M level. Profitability remains the key issue: despite consistently strong gross margins (~80%), operating results are materially negative (TTM operating margin around -20%) and losses persist, indicating the cost structure has not yet scaled with revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully: total debt dropped sharply from ~70M (2022–2024) to ~14M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and the company maintains a solid equity base (~87M TTM). That said, returns remain deeply negative (TTM return on equity around -49%), reflecting ongoing losses and limiting the quality of the balance sheet despite reduced debt.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains weak with negative operating cash flow across all periods, though TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) burn improved versus 2024 (about -16M vs. -37M). Free cash flow is still meaningfully negative (about -29M TTM), indicating the business continues to require funding; while free cash flow has improved year-over-year, the company has not yet demonstrated sustained self-funding operations.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	212.69M	209.36M	187.12M	141.84M	94.42M
Gross Profit	169.75M	168.26M	151.94M	114.31M	77.53M
EBITDA	-43.18M	-42.07M	-39.01M	-36.28M	-15.81M
Net Income	-59.00M	-55.74M	-49.53M	-42.81M	-20.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	190.58M	217.09M	251.91M	159.02M	140.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	48.37M	75.68M	123.20M	81.25M	105.83M
Total Debt	13.98M	69.65M	70.30M	68.59M	29.36M
Total Liabilities	103.25M	104.20M	113.97M	98.50M	47.75M
Stockholders Equity	87.33M	112.89M	137.94M	60.53M	93.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.49M	-48.76M	-46.03M	-45.49M	-19.90M
Operating Cash Flow	-15.97M	-37.17M	-34.58M	-30.65M	-17.19M
Investing Cash Flow	13.25M	35.38M	-81.30M	-76.52M	-2.71M
Financing Cash Flow	2.08M	160.00K	109.38M	20.81M	107.65M

Treace Medical Concepts Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.61, below the 50-day MA of 2.07, and below the 200-day MA of 4.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMCI.

Treace Medical Concepts Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BVS	65 Neutral	$748.39M	21.81	4.97%	―	1.58%	―
TCMD	62 Neutral	$615.85M	15.27	9.26%	―	9.28%	21.00%
SIBN	56 Neutral	$563.99M	-130.15	-12.91%	―	23.27%	43.90%
KIDS	55 Neutral	$418.11M	-10.51	-12.67%	―	19.90%	-57.90%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
OFIX	50 Neutral	$469.69M	-6.56	-20.38%	―	4.31%	3.26%
TMCI	41 Neutral	$84.61M	-2.63	-51.63%	―	7.90%	19.92%

Treace Medical Concepts Corporate Events

Treace Medical Issues Preliminary Q4 Results, Highlights Growth

On January 13, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts reported preliminary, unaudited results showing fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $62.1 million to $62.5 million, representing about a 9% year-over-year decline, while full-year 2025 revenue rose modestly by roughly 2% to a range of $212.3 million to $212.7 million, in line with its prior guidance. The company added approximately 202 new active surgeons in 2025 and ended the year with about 3,337 active surgeons, a 6% increase that now represents roughly one-third of the estimated 10,000 U.S. bunion surgeons, with management highlighting mid–single-digit growth in procedure volumes driven by adoption of its 3D bunion technologies despite macroeconomic and product-mix headwinds, and noting that formal 2026 financial guidance will be issued with its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release in February 2026; executives emphasized maintaining Treace’s leading bunion-market position, further expanding procedure penetration and surgeon base, and improving profitability for shareholders as they present these trends to investors at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 14, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMCI) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treace Medical Concepts stock, see the TMCI Stock Forecast page.