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Teekay Corporation (TK)
NYSE:TK

Teekay (TK) AI Stock Analysis

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TK

Teekay

(NYSE:TK)

74Outperform
Teekay's overall score reflects strong financial management with improved margins and reduced debt, enhancing stability. However, revenue volatility and cash flow declines pose challenges. The technical analysis suggests moderate momentum with potential overbought conditions. The valuation indicates an undervalued stock, presenting an opportunity. Despite geopolitical uncertainties impacting earnings call sentiment, strategic investments and dividends provide optimism.

Teekay (TK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Teekay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTeekay Corporation (TK) is a leading provider of international crude oil and gas marine transportation services. The company is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda, and operates through a global fleet of tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. Teekay serves the global oil and gas industry by offering transportation, storage, and other logistics services. Its primary sectors include crude oil tankers, LNG carriers, and offshore production, storage, and offloading units.
How the Company Makes MoneyTeekay Corporation generates revenue primarily through long-term charter agreements and spot market voyages in the oil and gas shipping sector. The company earns money by leasing its fleet of vessels to major oil and energy companies, who require reliable transportation services for their crude oil and LNG products. Key revenue streams include time-charter contracts, where customers pay a fixed rate for vessel use over a specified period, and spot market contracts, where earnings are based on voyage-specific rates. Additionally, Teekay benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other maritime and energy companies, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its market reach.

Teekay Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Teekay demonstrates strong financial management with improved profitability margins and reduced leverage. The strategic debt reduction significantly enhances financial stability, while strong cost control measures bolster profitability. However, revenue volatility and declining cash flows present potential challenges.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Teekay's income statement reflects a volatile revenue trajectory with a noticeable decline from 2023 to 2024, where revenue fell from $1.46 billion to $1.22 billion. Despite the revenue drop, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 32.3% in 2024, up from 29.5% in 2023, signaling improved cost efficiency. However, net profit margin decreased slightly to 10.96% in 2024 from 10.28% in 2023, indicating challenges in managing operating expenses. The company shows resilience with positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, but revenue volatility poses a risk.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy reduction in total debt from $227 million in 2023 to $65.6 million in 2024, significantly lowering the debt-to-equity ratio to 0.09, enhancing financial stability. The equity ratio remains robust at 32.9% in 2024, indicating a stable capital structure. However, the decrease in stockholders' equity from $732 million in 2023 to $710 million in 2024 suggests potential challenges in generating returns, as reflected in the reduced ROE of 18.84% in 2024 from 20.57% in 2023.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Teekay's cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow generation of $391.8 million in 2024, despite a reduction from $623 million in 2023. The operating cash flow remains robust at $467 million in 2024, albeit down from $633 million in 2023. The company's ability to convert net income into cash is sound, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.49 in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio also indicates strong cash generation capabilities. Despite these strengths, declining cash flows year-over-year could impact future liquidity.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.22B1.46B1.19B682.51M1.82B
Gross Profit
393.86M580.63M293.03M-49.73M559.82M
EBIT
365.25M531.73M245.77M-185.35M593.15M
EBITDA
503.15M655.14M348.67M-107.93M201.71M
Net Income Common Stockholders
133.77M150.64M209.64M-277.46M90.98M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
717.77M652.68M519.86M108.98M348.79M
Total Assets
2.15B2.20B2.16B6.53B6.95B
Total Debt
65.55M227.20M597.39M1.01B3.82B
Net Debt
-619.78M-252.88M287.53M896.24M3.47B
Total Liabilities
217.95M396.29M795.24M4.10B4.47B
Stockholders Equity
709.76M732.28M623.46M515.05M481.41M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
391.84M623.26M183.72M54.54M957.51M
Operating Cash Flow
467.19M633.46M199.15M75.99M984.02M
Investing Cash Flow
157.50M54.66M308.98M7.17M63.06M
Financing Cash Flow
-416.45M-524.05M-456.95M-223.53M-1.10B

Teekay Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price6.54
Price Trends
50DMA
6.79
Negative
100DMA
6.80
Negative
200DMA
7.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Negative
RSI
47.16
Neutral
STOCH
27.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.57, below the 50-day MA of 6.79, and below the 200-day MA of 7.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TK.

Teekay Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$1.90B2.7724.68%4.20%-7.25%31.85%
TKTK
74
Outperform
$548.85M4.6218.55%-16.70%-8.04%
DHDHT
74
Outperform
$1.70B9.3917.56%9.00%2.11%13.10%
ASASC
71
Outperform
$396.06M3.2021.87%9.70%46.10%
NANAT
68
Neutral
$520.91M11.048.91%13.71%-2.37%-52.77%
63
Neutral
$1.63B3.9623.33%15.46%-11.21%-25.50%
58
Neutral
$9.12B5.24-7.59%7.51%0.53%-65.25%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TK
Teekay
6.54
-0.19
-2.82%
DHT
DHT Holdings
10.37
-0.53
-4.86%
NAT
Nordic American Tanker
2.44
-1.20
-32.97%
STNG
Scorpio Tankers
37.43
-33.77
-47.43%
ASC
Ardmore Shipping
9.66
-6.32
-39.55%
INSW
International Seaways
33.12
-15.94
-32.49%

Teekay Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -6.03% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with strong financial performance and strategic fleet management highlighted, while facing challenges such as softer spot rates and geopolitical uncertainties. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about its strategic investments and dividend declarations.
Highlights
Strong Financial Performance
Teekay Tankers reported adjusted net income of $52 million for the fourth quarter and $355 million for the full year 2024. The company generated $69 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $415 million for the year.
Fleet Management Success
Teekay Tankers sold five vessels for a total of $160 million, resulting in expected book gains of nearly $60 million. They've also signed an MOA to acquire a Martin LR2 tanker, expected to close in the second quarter.
Strategic Investments
Teekay made a passive investment in Ardmore Shipping Corporation, owning 5.1% of the company, suggesting confidence in the product sector.
Dividend Declaration
Teekay Tankers declared a quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share, with a total of $3 per share paid for the full year.
Lowlights
Softer Spot Rates
Spot rates booked to date are slightly below fourth quarter levels, although they remain above the fleet's free cash flow breakeven levels.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Potential impacts from geopolitical events, such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and changes in sanctions, create uncertainty in the market.
Impact of Sanctions
The imposition of additional US sanctions on 153 tankers servicing the Russian oil trade has increased rate volatility.
Pressure on Spot Rates
Despite some positive trends, the Aframax and Suezmax spot rates experienced pressure near the term, influenced by market overhang and geopolitical events.
Company Guidance
During the Teekay Group's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics and strategic moves were highlighted. Teekay Tankers reported an adjusted net income of $52 million, or $1.50 per share for Q4, and $355 million, or $10.31 per share for the entire year. The company generated $69 million in free cash flow in Q4 and $415 million annually. As part of its fleet management strategy, Teekay Tankers sold five vessels for $160 million, expecting book gains of nearly $60 million, and announced the acquisition of a Martin LR2 tanker, expected to close in Q2. Additionally, Teekay Tankers declared a quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share, totaling $3 per share over the year. Despite softer spot rates, the company's free cash flow breakeven rate is approximately $14,300 per day, allowing it to remain profitable. The company also made a passive investment in Ardmore Shipping Corporation, acquiring a 5.1% stake. Looking ahead, Teekay anticipates potential market volatility due to geopolitical factors, including US sanctions on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil exports, as well as potential peace agreements in conflict regions, which could impact tanker demand and trade patterns.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.