TFS Financial (TFSL) Risk Factors

The Company is a separate legal entity from its subsidiaries and does not have significant operations of its own. Dividends from the Association provide a significant source of cash for the Company. The availability of dividends from the Association is limited by various statutes and regulations. Under these statutes and regulations, the Association is not permitted to pay dividends on its capital stock to the Company, its sole stockholder, if the dividend would reduce the stockholders' equity of the Association below the amount of the liquidation account established in connection with the mutual-to-stock conversion. Federal savings associations may pay dividends without the approval of its primary federal regulator only if they meet applicable regulatory capital requirements before and after the payment of the dividends and total dividends do not exceed net income to date over the calendar year plus its retained net income over the preceding two years. If in the future, the Company utilizes its available cash and the Association is unable to pay dividends to the Company, the Company may not have sufficient funds to pay dividends or fund stock repurchases.

Loan sales provide a portion of our non-interest income. In addition to being affected by interest rates, the secondary mortgage markets are also subject to investor demand for residential real estate loans and increased investor yield requirements for these loans. These conditions may fluctuate or worsen in the future. A prolonged period of secondary market illiquidity could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

We sell mortgage loans in the secondary market under agreements that contain representations and warranties related to, among other things, the origination, characteristics of the mortgage loans and subsequent servicing. We may be required to repurchase mortgage loans that we have sold in cases of borrower default or breaches of these representations and warranties, and we would be subject to increased risk of disputes and repurchase demands as our volume of loan sales increases. If we are required to repurchase mortgage loans or provide indemnification or other recourse, this could significantly increase our costs and thereby affect our future earnings.

We make various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of our loan portfolio, including the creditworthiness of our borrowers and the value of the real estate and other assets serving as collateral for the repayment of many of our loans. In determining the amount of the allowance for credit losses, we review our loans, our loss and delinquency experience, and evaluate economic conditions. If our assumptions or the results of our analyses are incorrect, our allowance for credit losses may not be sufficient to cover future losses, resulting in additions to our allowance. Material additions to our allowance would materially decrease our net income. See Note 5. LOANS AND ALLOWANCES FOR CREDIT LOSSES of the NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS for additional information on the CECL methodology. In addition, bank regulators periodically review our allowance for credit losses and, as a result of such reviews, we may decide to increase our provision for loans losses or recognize further loan charge-offs. Any increase in our allowance for credit losses or loan charge-offs as a result of such review or otherwise, may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operation.

On occasion we have employed various financial risk methodologies that limit, or "hedge," the adverse effects of rising or decreasing interest rates on our loan portfolios and short-term liabilities. We also engage in hedging strategies with respect to arrangements where our customers swap floating interest rate obligations for fixed interest rate obligations, or vice versa. Our hedging activity varies based on the level and volatility of interest rates and other changing market conditions. There are no perfect hedging strategies, and interest rate hedging may fail to protect us from loss. Moreover, hedging activities could result in losses if the event against which we hedge does not occur. Additionally, interest rate hedging could fail to protect us or adversely affect us because, among other things: - available interest rate hedging may not correspond directly with the interest rate risk for which protection is sought;- the durations of the hedge may not match the duration of the related liability;- the party owing money in the hedging transaction may default on its obligation to pay;- the credit quality of the party owing money on the hedge may be downgraded to such an extent that it impairs our ability to sell or assign our side of the hedging transaction;- the value of derivatives used for hedging may be adjusted from time to time in accordance with accounting rules to reflect changes in fair value; and/or - downward adjustments, or "mark-to-market" losses, would reduce our equity.

Federal regulations establish minimum capital requirements for insured depository institutions, including minimum risk-based capital and leverage ratios, and define "capital" for calculating these ratios. The minimum capital requirements are: (1) a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 4.5%; (2) a Tier 1 risk-based assets capital ratio of 6%; (3) a total capital ratio of 8%; and (4) a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 4%. The regulations also establish a "capital conservation buffer" of 2.5%, which results in the following minimum ratios: (1) a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 7.0%; (2) a Tier 1 to risk-based assets capital ratio of 8.5%; and (3) a total capital ratio of 10.5%. An institution will be subject to limitations on paying dividends, engaging in share repurchases and paying discretionary bonuses if its capital level falls below the capital conservation buffer amount. The application of these capital requirements could, among other things, result in lower returns on equity, and result in regulatory actions if we are unable to comply with such requirements. Specifically, our ability to pay dividends to the Company is limited for any association that does not maintain the capital conservation buffer required by the capital rules, which may limit our ability to pay dividends to our stockholders.

We are required by federal regulatory authorities to maintain adequate levels of capital to support our operations. We may at some point, however, need to raise additional capital to support continued growth or be required by our regulators to increase our capital resources. Our ability to raise additional capital, if needed, will depend on conditions in the capital markets at that time, which are outside of our control, and on our financial performance. Accordingly, we may not be able to raise additional capital, if needed, on terms acceptable to us. If we cannot raise additional capital when needed, our ability to further expand our operations and pursue our growth strategy could be materially impaired and our financial condition and liquidity could be materially and adversely affected. In addition, if we are unable to raise additional capital when required by our bank regulators, we may be subject to adverse regulatory action.

A significant portion of our total residential mortgage loan portfolio is secured by one- to four-family real estate. One- to four-family residential mortgage lending is generally sensitive to regional and local economic conditions that significantly impact the ability of borrowers to meet their loan payment obligations, making loss levels difficult to predict. A decline in residential real estate values as a result of a downturn in the housing markets in our lending areas could reduce the value of the real estate collateral securing these types of loans. As a result, we have increased risk that we could incur losses if borrowers default on their loans because we may be unable to recover all or part of the defaulted loans by selling the real estate collateral. In addition, if borrowers sell their homes, they may be unable to repay their loans in full from the sale proceeds.

The judicial foreclosure process is protracted, which delays our ability to resolve non-performing loans through the sale of the underlying collateral. The longer timelines have been the result of the economic crisis, additional consumer protection initiatives related to the foreclosure process, increased documentary requirements and judicial scrutiny, and, both voluntary and mandatory programs under which lenders may consider loan modifications or other alternatives to foreclosure. These reasons and the legal and regulatory responses have impacted the foreclosure process and completion time of foreclosures for residential mortgage lenders. This may result in a material adverse effect on collateral values and our ability to minimize its losses.

At September 30, 2024, certificates of deposit comprised 78.7% of our total deposits, as compared to 70.4% as of September 30, 2023. Our increased levels of certificates of deposit have resulted in a higher cost of funds than would otherwise be the case if we had a higher percentage of demand deposits and savings deposits. In addition, if our certificates of deposit do not remain with us, we may be required to access other sources of funds, including loan sales, other types of deposits, advances from the FHLB of Cincinnati and other borrowings. Depending on market conditions, we may be required to pay higher rates on such deposits or borrowings than we currently pay on our certificates of deposit.

Our ability to engage in routine funding transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty and other relationships. We have exposure to many different counterparties, and we routinely execute transactions with counterparties in the financial industry, including brokers and dealers, other commercial banks, investment banks, mutual and hedge funds, and other financial institutions. As a result, defaults by, or even rumors or questions about, one or more financial services institutions, or the financial services industry in general, could lead to market-wide liquidity problems and losses or defaults by us or by other institutions and organizations. Many of these transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of our counterparty or client. In addition, our credit risk may be exacerbated when the collateral held by us cannot be liquidated or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of the financial instrument exposure due to us. Any such losses could materially and adversely affect our results of operations.

Our principal lending activity consists of originating, and essentially all of our loan portfolio consists of, residential real estate mortgage loans. We originate our loans with a focus on limiting credit risk exposure and not necessarily to generate the highest return possible or maximize our interest rate spread. In addition, residential real estate mortgage loans generally have lower interest rates than commercial business loans, commercial real estate loans and consumer loans. As a result, we may generate lower interest rate spreads and rates of return when compared to our competitors who originate more consumer or commercial loans than we do. We intend to continue our focus on residential real estate lending.

Our net income largely depends on our net interest income, which could be negatively affected by changes in interest rates. Net interest income is the difference between the interest income we earn on our interest-earning assets, such as loans and securities, and the interest we pay on our interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. Generally, during a period of rising interest rates, the interest income earned on our assets may not increase as rapidly as the interest paid on our liabilities because, like many savings institutions, our liabilities generally have shorter contractual maturities than our assets. An example of this occurs when interest rates paid on certificates of deposit experience a significant increase. In this circumstance, a CD customer may determine that it is in his/her best interest to incur the existing penalty for early withdrawal, tender the certificate for cash and either reinvest the proceeds in a new CD with us, or withdraw the funds and leave us. As a result, we either establish a new, higher rate certificate (if the customer stays with us), or we must fund the customer's withdrawal by: (1) reducing our cash reserves; (2) selling assets to generate cash to fund the withdrawal; (3) attracting deposits from another customer at the then-higher interest rate; or (4) borrowing from a wholesale lender like the FHLB of Cincinnati, again at the then-higher interest rate. Each of these alternatives can have an unfavorable impact on us. Changes in interest rates can also have an unfavorable impact on our net interest income when and if home equity lines of credit and loans and mortgage interest rates decline. Our customers may seek to refinance, without penalty, their mortgage loans with us or repay their mortgage loans with us and borrow from another lender. When that happens, either the yield that we earn on the customer's loan is reduced (if the customer refinances with us), or the mortgage is paid off and we are faced with the challenge of reinvesting the cash received to repay the mortgage in a lower interest rate environment. This is frequently referred to as reinvestment risk, which is the risk that we may not be able to reinvest the proceeds of loan prepayments at rates that are comparable to the rates we earned on the loans prior to receipt of the repayment. Reinvestment risk also exists with the securities in our investment portfolio that are backed by mortgage loans. Our net interest income can also be negatively impacted when assets and funding sources with seemingly similar, but not identical re-pricing characteristics, react differently to changing interest rates. An example is our home equity lines of credit loan portfolio and our interest-bearing checking and savings deposit products. Interest rates charged on our home equity lines of credit loans are linked to the prime rate of interest, which generally adjusts in a direct relationship to changes in the FRS's Federal Funds target rate. Similarly, our interest-bearing checking and savings deposit products are generally expected to adjust when changes are made to the Federal Funds target rate. However, to the extent that increases or decreases are made to the Federal Funds target rate, and those increases or decreases translate into increases or decreases of the prime rate and the rate charged on our home equity lines of credit loans, but do not extend to equivalent adjustments to our interest-bearing checking and savings deposit products, we can experience a reduction in our net interest income. At September 30, 2024, we held $3.32 billion of home equity lines of credit loans and $2.00 billion of interest-bearing checking and savings deposits. Our net income can also be reduced by the impact that changes in interest rates can have on the value of our capitalized mortgage servicing rights. As of September 30, 2024, we serviced $1.97 billion of loans sold to third parties, and the mortgage servicing rights associated with such loans had an amortized cost of $7.6 million and an estimated fair value, at that date, of $17.1 million. Because the estimated life and estimated income to be derived from servicing the underlying mortgage loans generally increase with rising interest rates and decrease with falling interest rates, the value of mortgage servicing rights generally increases as interest rates rise and decreases as interest rates fall. If interest rates fall and the value of our capitalized servicing rights decrease, we may be required to recognize an additional impairment charge against income for the amount by which amortized cost exceeds estimated fair market value. Our securities portfolio may be impacted by fluctuations in market value, potentially reducing AOCI and/or earnings. Fluctuations in market value may be caused by changes in market interest rates, lower market prices for securities and limited investor demand. Changes in interest rates can also have an adverse effect on our financial condition, as our available for sale securities are reported at their estimated fair value, and therefore are impacted by fluctuations in interest rates. We increase or decrease our stockholders' equity by the amount of change in the estimated fair value of the available for sale securities, net of taxes. The declines in market value could result in other-than-temporary impairments of these assets, which would lead to accounting charges that could have a material adverse effect on our net income and capital levels. In general, changes in market and competitive interest rates result from events that we do not control and over which we generally have little or no influence. As a result, mitigation of the adverse effects of changing interest rates is generally limited to controlling the composition of the assets and liabilities that we hold. To monitor our positions, we maintain an interest rate risk modeling system which is designed to measure our interest rate risk sensitivity. Using customized modeling software, the Association prepares periodic estimates of the amounts by which the net present value of its cash flows from assets, liabilities and off balance sheet items (the institution's EVE) would change in the event of a range of assumed changes in market interest rates. The simulation model uses a discounted cash flow analysis and an option-based pricing approach in measuring the interest rate sensitivity of EVE. At September 30, 2024, in the event of an immediate 200 basis point increase in all interest rates, our model projects that we would experience a $311.5 million, or 27.24%, decrease in EVE. Our calculations further project that, at September 30, 2024, in the event that market interest rates used in the simulation were adjusted in equal monthly amounts (termed a "ramped" format) during the twelve month measurement period to an aggregate increase in 200 basis points, we would expect our projected net interest income for the twelve months ended September 30, 2025, to increase by 1.27%. See Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk.

Federal law requires that a holding company act as a source of financial and managerial strength to its subsidiary bank and to commit resources to support such subsidiary bank. Under the "source of strength" doctrine, the FRS may require a holding company to make capital injections into a troubled subsidiary bank and may charge the holding company with engaging in unsafe and unsound practices for failure to commit resources to a subsidiary bank. A capital injection may be required at times when the holding company may not have the resources to provide it and therefore may be required to attempt to borrow the funds or raise capital. Thus, any borrowing of funds needed to raise capital required to make a capital injection becomes more difficult and expensive, and could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Moreover, it is possible that we will be unable to borrow funds when we need to do so.