Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 487.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 5.19%
• EPS Growth: 3454.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,818
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 2.12
• Shares Outstanding: 44,176,838
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 452,694
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 487,738
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.50
• 1Y Price Target: $104.60
• Price Target Upside: 13.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.35B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $99.00 ▲(7.63% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/10/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial fundamentals (profitability rebound and de-risked balance sheet) and a constructive earnings outlook, partially offset by weak technical momentum and remaining volatility/credit and margin headwinds.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet & Capital Strength

Meaningfully lower leverage and recovering ROE indicate a de‑risked balance sheet and greater loss-absorption capacity. Strong tangible equity and CET1 trends reported support regulatory resilience, reduce funding fragility, and afford the bank flexibility for capital deployment and opportunistic repurchases over the medium term.

Revenue and Margin Rebound

A durable rebound in revenue and a material expansion in net margin demonstrate improved core profitability. Sustained NII growth plus higher margins support internal capital generation and provide a stronger earnings base to fund investments, provisions, and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.

Diversified Fee Income & Client Traction

Growing fee streams—particularly treasury and investment banking—reduce reliance on interest income and dampen margin cyclicality. Coupled with commercial loan and deposit growth, this diversification supports steadier pre-provision revenues and provides scalable, higher‑margin avenues as the bank invests in front-office capabilities.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Volatility

Large year-to-year swings in free cash flow undermine predictability of internal funding for loans, technology, and buybacks. While FCF matched net income in 2025, the sharp decline reduces confidence in sustainable cash generation and increases reliance on capital markets or tighter expense control during stress periods.

Concentrated CRE Multifamily Stress

Concentrated special‑mention exposure in a regional multifamily cohort can produce protracted workout timelines and higher provisions if rental recovery lags. Given the portfolio concentration, credit erosion could impair returns, constrain capital deployment, and necessitate elevated provisioning through multiple quarters.

NIM Pressure & Funding Costs

Timing mismatches between loan yields and deposit repricing, plus hedging costs, create persistent margin pressure risk. If deposit beta or hedge costs remain elevated, sustaining NII growth will require either higher loan yields, continued fee growth, or cost control, all of which can be structural headwinds to durable margin recovery.

Texas Capital Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, is a full-service financial services firm that delivers customized solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual customers. The company offers commercial banking, consumer banking, investment banking, and wealth management services. It offers business deposit products and services, including commercial checking accounts, lockbox accounts, and cash concentration accounts, as well as information, wire transfer initiation, ACH initiation, account transfer, and service integration services; and consumer deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also provides commercial loans for general corporate purposes comprising financing working capital, internal growth, acquisitions, and business insurance premiums, as well as consumer loans; loans to exploration and production companies; mortgage finance loans; commercial real estate and residential homebuilder finance loans; first and second lien loans for the purpose of purchasing or constructing 1-4 family residential dwellings, as well as home equity revolving lines of credit and loans to purchase lots for future construction of 1-4 family residential dwellings; and real estate loans originated through a small business administration program, as well as equipment finance and leasing services, and letters of credit. In addition, it offers online and mobile banking, and debit and credit card services; escrow services; personal wealth management and trust services; and depositors American Airlines AAdvantage miles. It operates in Austin, Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio metropolitan areas of Texas. Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Texas Capital Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from various service fees. The bank's loan portfolio, which includes commercial loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans, is a significant source of interest income. Additionally, TCBI earns fees from deposit services, treasury management, and wealth management services, contributing to its non-interest income. The company's focus on relationship-based banking allows it to build strong ties with clients, leading to repeat business and sustained revenue streams. Furthermore, strategic partnerships and collaborations enhance its service offerings, driving growth and profitability.

Texas Capital Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 rebound in revenue and profitability and a notably improved leverage profile support the score, but earnings and cash-flow volatility (including a sharp 2024 dip and a 2025 free-cash-flow decline) reduce confidence in consistency.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (annual revenue up ~64% after a slight decline in 2024), and profitability improved materially as net margin expanded from ~4.4% (2024) to ~16.5% (2025). However, results have been volatile across the cycle—2021–2022 showed unusually high margins, followed by a sharp dip in 2024—suggesting earnings sensitivity and less consistent profitability than top-tier peers.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully, with debt-to-equity stepping down from ~1.22 (2020) to ~0.26 (2025), while equity has grown and assets have been relatively stable. Return on equity also recovered to ~9.1% in 2025 from ~2.3% in 2024, but it remains below the prior peak (~10.9% in 2022), indicating the balance sheet is healthier, though profitability still has room to normalize higher.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2025 (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), and generally strong conversion in prior years as well. The key weakness is volatility: free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (about -46.7% growth), and operating cash flow has swung significantly year-to-year, reducing confidence in near-term cash flow consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.00B	1.76B	1.79B	1.25B	987.05M
Gross Profit	1.21B	865.35M	1.00B	910.76M	909.30M
EBITDA	480.00M	161.29M	287.07M	477.04M	431.46M
Net Income	330.24M	77.51M	189.14M	332.48M	253.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	31.54B	30.73B	28.36B	28.41B	34.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	205.24M	3.37B	6.47B	7.63B	11.53B
Total Debt	950.58M	1.55B	2.36B	2.13B	3.13B
Total Liabilities	27.91B	27.36B	25.16B	25.36B	31.52B
Stockholders Equity	3.63B	3.37B	3.20B	3.06B	3.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	347.58M	416.28M	357.36M	136.70M	653.19M
Operating Cash Flow	360.15M	481.12M	373.74M	147.97M	657.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.85B	-2.48B	-1.76B	3.31B	1.23B
Financing Cash Flow	404.27M	1.94B	-387.67M	-6.39B	-3.15B

Texas Capital Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 91.98
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 91.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.21, below the 50-day MA of 98.30, and above the 200-day MA of 88.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TCBI.

Texas Capital Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UCB	78 Outperform	$3.60B	11.58	9.15%	3.02%	5.63%	65.11%
FULT	70 Outperform	$3.53B	9.05	11.71%	3.52%	9.60%	20.38%
RNST	69 Neutral	$3.28B	18.35	5.10%	2.47%	20.26%	-35.00%
FIBK	68 Neutral	$3.28B	11.75	8.83%	5.24%	-5.43%	4.19%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TCBI	65 Neutral	$4.06B	12.34	9.30%	―	5.19%	3454.95%
INDB	64 Neutral	$3.65B	17.62	6.21%	3.05%	11.05%	-10.78%

Texas Capital Bancshares Corporate Events

Texas Capital Bancshares Announces Redemption of Subordinated Notes

On March 9, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. announced that it had notified holders of its 4.000% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes due 2031 that all $375 million of the outstanding notes will be redeemed. The redemption will occur on May 6, 2026, at 100% of principal plus accrued and unpaid interest up to, but excluding, the redemption date, effectively retiring this entire subordinated debt issuance and potentially simplifying the company’s capital structure.

The notes being redeemed were issued under an indenture originally dated September 21, 2012, and later supplemented on May 6, 2021, with U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, serving as successor trustee. This transaction marks a significant capital management step for Texas Capital Bancshares, as the full redemption of these subordinated notes may reduce future interest expense and adjust the mix of the bank’s regulatory capital over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBI) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Capital Bancshares stock, see the TCBI Stock Forecast page.

Texas Capital Bancshares Completes $400 Million Senior Notes Offering

On February 27, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares completed a $400 million public offering of 5.301% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2032, underwritten by a syndicate led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and its affiliate Texas Capital Securities. The notes, issued under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company as trustee, pay a fixed 5.301% rate semi-annually through February 27, 2031, then convert to a floating rate tied to the Compounded Secured Overnight Financing Rate plus 1.94% until maturity on February 27, 2032.

The company received approximately $398.4 million in gross proceeds before expenses and plans to use the funds for general corporate purposes, which may include redeeming its 4.000% subordinated notes due 2031. The transaction strengthens Texas Capital Bancshares’ funding profile and capital flexibility, potentially lowering its future funding costs and adjusting its liability mix as it manages upcoming debt maturities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBI) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Capital Bancshares stock, see the TCBI Stock Forecast page.

Texas Capital Bancshares Simplifies Capital Structure via Elimination

On February 20, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. eliminated a previously authorized but unused class of Series A-1 Nonvoting Common Stock by filing a Certificate of Elimination in Delaware, confirming that no shares were outstanding and that none would be issued under that designation. On the same date, the company also eliminated its unused 6.50% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, returning those previously authorized but unissued preferred shares to the pool of undesignated preferred stock, thereby simplifying its capital structure without affecting existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBI) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Capital Bancshares stock, see the TCBI Stock Forecast page.