Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.95B
• Dividend Yield: 4.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 524,253,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,207,603
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,971,449
• PEG Ratio: 0.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.65
• 1Y Price Target: $59.67
• Price Target Upside: 51.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $31.67B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(11.62% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

The score is primarily held back by weaker current profitability/returns and mixed cash-conversion quality despite improved cash flow. This is partly offset by constructive technical momentum and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with clear EBITDA/FCF and deleveraging targets, though execution risks (volumes, downtime, energy) remain. Valuation is a modest headwind due to the higher P/E, partially balanced by the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improved Cash Generation

Operating cash flow and free cash flow recovered meaningfully to multi‑billion levels, providing durable internal funding for maintenance capex, dividends and gradual deleveraging. Sustained cash generation supports execution of the 2026–2030 plan and reduces reliance on external financing.

Integration Synergies Realized

Achieving and exceeding initial synergy targets evidences effective post‑merger integration and cost removal. These run‑rate savings are structurally supportive of margin expansion, ROCE improvement and provide recurring benefits that underpin medium‑term profitability targets.

Clear Medium‑Term Plan & Capabilities

A detailed 2026–2030 roadmap with explicit EBITDA, margin, FCF, capex and leverage targets provides strategic clarity. Combined with Design2Market/AI commercial tools and design centers, this structural focus on value selling and investment prioritization strengthens long‑term margin and growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Compressed Profitability

Margins remain materially below historical levels, constraining return on equity and cash available for reinvestment. Persistently compressed profitability reduces balance‑sheet flexibility, making it harder to fund growth capex and meet deleveraging targets without sustained pricing or structural cost gains.

Weak Cash Conversion

Only about a quarter of accounting earnings convert to free cash flow, indicating heavy reinvestment or working capital drag. This structural conversion gap limits net debt paydown and constrains margin of safety for capital returns and buybacks, elevating execution risk on deleveraging plans.

NA Volume Losses & Downtime

Significant North American volume declines, large downtime costs and plant closures indicate structural demand and operational challenges. Lost or reshaped customer relationships and utilization shortfalls can erode scale economics and make achieving medium‑term margin and EBITDA targets more difficult.

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box. It also produces linerboard and corrugated medium, paperboard, and non-packaging grades of paper, as well as converted products, such as folding cartons and corrugated boxes, and other products; recycled paper-based packaging products; and packaging machinery. The company primarily serves food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Smurfit Westrock makes money primarily by producing and selling paper-based packaging products and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Corrugated packaging and converting: selling corrugated boxes, sheets, and other converted packaging products to customers; revenue is generated per unit/contract based on specifications such as size, print/graphics, strength, and service levels. (2) Containerboard and paper: manufacturing containerboard (the primary paper input used to make corrugated products) and selling it either internally to the company’s converting operations or externally to other packaging producers; revenue is driven by volumes and market pricing for paper grades. (3) Integrated packaging solutions and services: providing packaging design/engineering support, performance testing, and operational services (e.g., packaging optimization and supply support) that are bundled into customer programs or priced as value-added services depending on the engagement. (4) Recycling and fiber sourcing: where applicable, collecting and processing recovered fiber that can be used as an input into paper production; earnings are influenced by recovered fiber volumes and market prices for recycled materials. Overall earnings are influenced by demand for consumer and industrial packaging, product mix (value-added converting/graphics vs. commodity paper), input costs (fiber, energy, chemicals, transportation), capacity utilization at mills and plants, and the company’s ability to pass through or reprice changes in paper and packaging markets. Significant partnerships or specific customer arrangements are null.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows strong TTM revenue growth but materially weaker profitability versus 2021–2023 (net margin ~2.4%, EBIT margin ~5.8%). Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.77) but ROE is low (~4.2%), limiting flexibility. Cash flow rebounded (OCF ~$3.39B; FCF ~$1.2B) yet cash conversion is weak (~27% of net income flowing to FCF), implying reinvestment/working-capital pressure.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is $29.4B with solid growth (up ~104% vs 2024), but profitability is modest: net margin is ~2.4% and EBIT margin is ~5.8%. Margins and earnings are materially below 2021–2023 levels (when net margins were ~6–8% and EBIT margins ~10–13%), suggesting weaker pricing/cost mix and/or integration pressure despite the much larger revenue base.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate based on debt-to-equity of ~0.77 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), broadly in line with recent years. The key weakness is low profitability on the equity base (return on equity ~4.2% TTM vs double-digit levels in 2021–2023), which reduces balance-sheet flexibility even if headline leverage is not extreme.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow rose to ~$3.39B and free cash flow to ~$1.2B (strong growth vs 2024). However, cash conversion remains a concern—only ~27% of net income is showing up as free cash flow in TTM, and cash flow coverage metrics are weaker than 2020–2023, pointing to higher reinvestment needs and/or working-capital volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.27B	20.38B	10.95B	12.62B	10.48B
Gross Profit	5.49B	4.05B	2.77B	3.06B	2.35B
EBITDA	3.91B	2.74B	1.79B	2.13B	1.57B
Net Income	659.72M	307.93M	747.28M	965.65M	704.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	45.16B	43.76B	14.05B	12.46B	11.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	892.00M	855.00M	1.00B	785.41M	854.32M
Total Debt	12.65B	13.60B	4.13B	3.74B	3.75B
Total Liabilities	26.80B	26.37B	7.88B	7.47B	7.31B
Stockholders Equity	18.33B	17.36B	6.16B	4.98B	4.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.02B	17.00M	630.00M	503.00M	468.06M
Operating Cash Flow	2.89B	1.48B	1.56B	1.43B	1.17B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.82B	-2.11B	-931.00M	-1.02B	-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.10B	607.00M	-479.00M	-431.00M	-16.55M

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.63, below the 50-day MA of 43.83, and below the 200-day MA of 41.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CCK	71 Outperform	$11.92B	16.16	25.41%	1.01%	2.94%	893.70%
PKG	69 Neutral	$19.27B	24.15	16.73%	2.42%	7.23%	-3.88%
SW	68 Neutral	$20.95B	25.47	3.90%	4.21%	―	―
BALL	66 Neutral	$16.43B	15.93	16.89%	1.53%	2.87%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AMCR	59 Neutral	$18.81B	27.28	6.12%	6.20%	28.41%	-35.50%
IP	49 Neutral	$19.80B	-5.92	-20.43%	4.69%	33.71%	-517.99%