Smurfit Westrock (SW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.23B
• Dividend Yield: 3.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 49.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 100,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 96
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 521,976,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,279,844
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,634,489
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.09
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 7.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $55.22
• Price Target Upside: 32.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

Smurfit Westrock's overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. However, technical analysis suggests potential short-term challenges, and valuation metrics imply the stock might be overvalued. The company's strengths include a stable financial foundation and strategic initiatives yielding synergies, but market momentum and high P/E ratio present cautionary signals.

Positive Factors

Operational Improvements

Strong progress in improving margins without losing market share in the US and achieving pricing benefits in Brazil suggests effective management strategies.

Pricing Strategy

Expected tailwinds from US corrugated box pricing and European testliner price increases are anticipated to offset some price erosion in EU box prices.

Synergies

Management reiterates its confidence in capturing identified $400m in synergies by year-end 2025.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

Smurfit WestRock shares sold off on results, with a 5% decrease due to the first quarter guidance being slightly below consensus expectations.

Maintenance Costs

The shares fell further, to -7%, by the end of the call due to management commentary indicating higher maintenance cost headwinds in Q2 and Q3.

Tariffs Impact

A key risk mentioned is the possible tariffs and the potential impact on Smurfit WestRock's Latin American business.

Smurfit Westrock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland and internationally. The company produces containerboard that it converts into corrugated containers or sells to third parties, as well as produces other types of paper, such as consumer packaging board, sack paper, graphic paper, solid board and graphic board, and other paper-based packaging products, such as consumer packaging, solid board packaging, paper sacks, and other packaging products, including bag-in-box. It also produces linerboard and corrugated medium, paperboard, and non-packaging grades of paper, as well as converted products, such as folding cartons and corrugated boxes, and other products; recycled paper-based packaging products; and packaging machinery. The company primarily serves food and beverage, e-commerce, retail, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Smurfit Westrock generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of packaging products. Its primary revenue streams include corrugated packaging solutions, paperboard production, and consumer packaging. The company capitalizes on its global reach and scale to serve a broad customer base across various industries. Additionally, Smurfit Westrock benefits from significant partnerships with key players in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and healthcare, which contribute to its consistent revenue growth. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation in packaging solutions also helps in attracting and retaining clients, thereby boosting its financial performance.

Smurfit Westrock Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Smurfit Westrock demonstrates a stable financial condition with strengths in profitability and balance sheet health. The company maintains solid margins and a strong equity position, though revenue and free cash flow growth have been inconsistent. There are opportunities for improvement in revenue consistency and cash flow management to enhance overall financial performance.

Income Statement

Smurfit Westrock's income statement reflects a stable gross profit margin of approximately 20% over recent years. The net profit margin has shown improvement, reaching around 3.8% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the EBIT margin has seen fluctuations, with a recent decline. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with occasional declines, although there was a notable increase in 2024. Overall, the company demonstrates profitability with room for improvement in revenue growth consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a solid equity base, with an equity ratio of nearly 40% in 2024, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.06, signaling manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) has been decent at approximately 4.6% in 2024, though it has decreased compared to prior years. While the company's financial position is stable, there is potential to enhance ROE and further optimize leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a significant drop in free cash flow growth in 2024, indicating increased capital expenditure. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, suggesting efficient cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, highlighting the need for careful cash management. Despite challenges, the company's ability to generate operating cash flow remains robust.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
21.11B	12.46B	12.81B	10.11B	8.53B
	Gross Profit
4.20B	4.19B	4.06B	3.09B	2.87B
	EBIT
1.01B	1.38B	1.44B	1.07B	891.00M
	EBITDA
2.55B	2.06B	2.23B	1.80B	1.78B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
319.00M	837.89M	1.01B	768.78M	670.32M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
855.00M	983.81M	777.00M	869.00M	891.00M
	Total Assets
43.76B	13.96B	12.48B	11.71B	10.29B
	Total Debt
1.05B	3.75B	3.78B	3.75B	3.28B
	Net Debt
198.00M	―	3.00B	2.88B	2.38B
	Total Liabilities
26.37B	7.80B	7.44B	7.32B	6.51B
	Stockholders Equity
17.36B	6.15B	5.03B	4.38B	3.77B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
17.00M	727.35M	562.00M	371.00M	733.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.48B	1.68B	1.45B	986.00M	1.25B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.11B	―	-967.00M	-1.00B	-498.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
607.00M	―	-496.00M	-14.00M	-64.00M

Smurfit Westrock Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 41.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 41.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.53, below the 50-day MA of 46.51, and below the 200-day MA of 48.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SW.

Smurfit Westrock Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PKG	70 Outperform	$16.99B	21.15	19.03%	2.75%	7.45%	5.26%
BERY	65 Neutral	$7.98B	17.17	19.44%	1.75%	-5.35%	-13.51%
CCK	64 Neutral	$9.85B	23.72	16.41%	1.20%	-1.53%	-5.16%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$9.39B	14.85	4.11%	187.30%	3.96%	6.50%
SW	63 Neutral	$21.23B	49.76	13.63%	3.98%	―	―
IP	61 Neutral	$23.79B	28.65	6.74%	4.11%	-1.57%	84.85%
AMCR	59 Neutral	$13.46B	16.90	20.60%	5.38%	-3.54%	25.25%

Smurfit Westrock Corporate Events

Smurfit Westrock Appoints Carole L. Brown to Board

On March 10, 2025, Smurfit Westrock plc appointed Carole L. Brown as an independent director to its Board, effective March 11, 2025. Ms. Brown, who has a strong background in asset management and municipal finance, will also serve on the Audit and Sustainability Committees. Her appointment increases the Board size to 15 members, but it will revert to 14 after Dmitri L. Stockton steps down following the 2025 Annual General Meeting.

Dmitri Stockton Resigns from Smurfit Westrock Board

On February 26, 2025, Dmitri Stockton announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Smurfit Westrock plc, effective after the 2025 Annual General Meeting on May 2, 2025. His departure is not due to any disagreements with the company, and the Board expressed gratitude for his contributions during the company’s formative period following its merger.