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Smart Sand Inc (SND)
NASDAQ:SND

Smart Sand (SND) AI Stock Analysis

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SND

Smart Sand

(NASDAQ:SND)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(87.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—stronger cash generation and a conservative balance sheet offset by weak and volatile profitability. Technicals add support with an upward trend and positive momentum, while the high P/E ratio weighs on valuation. The new buyback authorization is a modest positive tailwind.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Smart Sand delivered materially improved operating and free cash flow in 2025, converting operating performance into durable liquidity. Strong FCF provides funding for capex, debt service, and shareholder returns, reducing reliance on external financing during energy cycles.
Conservative leverage
Low debt-to-equity gives the company structural financial flexibility to absorb industry cyclicality and fund operations or strategic moves internally. Conservative leverage lowers refinancing risk and supports continued investment or buybacks through downcycles.
Scale plus active capital returns
Record volumes and substantial FCF in 2025, together with a $20M repurchase authorization and prior dividends/repurchases, show scale and disciplined capital allocation. This reinforces long-run shareholder alignment and demonstrates ability to return cash when operational cash generation holds.
Negative Factors
Thin, volatile profitability
Low gross margins and swings to operating losses indicate earnings are sensitive to cost and pricing fluctuations. Persistently thin profitability constrains internal reinvestment, limits return on capital, and makes long-term planning and dividend/buyback sustainability more conditional on cyclically strong periods.
Inconsistent revenue trends
Irregular revenue growth and episodes of sharp declines undermine predictability of cash flows and complicate capacity planning. For a volume-driven commodity business, inconsistent top-line trends increase execution risk and make multi-period investment returns more uncertain.
High end‑market cyclicality
Dependence on hydraulic fracturing demand ties revenues to commodity cycles, rig counts and regulatory shifts. Structural exposure to oil & gas activity increases long-term volume and pricing volatility, pressuring margin sustainability and capital return consistency across cycles.

Smart Sand (SND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Smart Sand Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSmart Sand, Inc., an integrated frac sand supply and services company, engages in the excavation, processing, and sale of sands or proppant for use in hydraulic fracturing operations in the oil and gas industry in the United States. It also provides logistics services; and SmartSystems, a wellsite proppant storage solution. The company sells its products primarily to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, oilfield service companies, and industrial manufacturers. As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 250 million tons of proven and probable recoverable sand reserves. Smart Sand, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneySmart Sand generates revenue through the sale of its industrial sand products, primarily frac sand, to oil and gas exploration and production companies. The company's revenue model is based on the volume of sand sold, with pricing influenced by demand in the energy market and competitive dynamics. Key revenue streams include direct sales to customers, long-term supply contracts with major energy companies, and spot market transactions. Additionally, Smart Sand benefits from its strategic partnerships and relationships with operators in the oil and gas industry, which help secure consistent demand and facilitate growth. The company also focuses on operational efficiency and cost management to enhance profitability.

Smart Sand Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2024
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. Positive aspects included a focus on free cash flow, shareholder returns, and strategic growth initiatives. However, challenges such as decreased sales volumes and revenue, alongside lower contribution margins and EBITDA, highlighted operational pressures. The company remains optimistic about future demand and pricing improvements, particularly in natural gas markets.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Free Cash Flow
Smart Sand reported positive free cash flow of $3.7 million for the third quarter and $11.7 million year-to-date. The company remains cash flow positive for 2024.
Special Dividend and Share Buyback
A special dividend of $0.10 per share was paid, and a share buyback plan of up to $10 million was announced, indicating a focus on returning capital to shareholders.
New Credit Facility
A new 5-year $30 million ABL credit facility was established with First Citizens Bank, providing efficient and flexible funding.
Sales Volume Increase
Sales volumes increased by 9% over 2023, with approximately 1.2 million tons delivered in the third quarter.
Decreased Capital Expenditures
Capital expenditures are down $11 million year-to-date, with total expected to be at or under $10 million for 2024, compared to $23 million in 2023.
Growth in Industrial Product Solutions
IPS sales volumes increased by 38% sequentially and are expected to grow from under 5% to around 10% of total sales volumes in 2025.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Sales Volumes and Revenue
Third quarter sales volumes decreased by 7% from the second quarter, with total revenues dropping from $73.8 million to $63.2 million.
Lower Contribution Margin and EBITDA
Contribution margin fell to $13.2 million from $19.8 million in the second quarter, with adjusted EBITDA dropping to $5.7 million from $11.9 million.
Non-Cash Charge and Increased Operating Expenses
A $1.1 million non-cash charge was incurred due to the closure of a Canadian facility, contributing to an increase in operating expenses to $11.4 million from $9.5 million.
Company Guidance
During Smart Sand's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided several financial metrics and guidance reflecting its performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported sales volumes of just under 1.2 million tons and an adjusted EBITDA of $5.7 million for the quarter. Positive free cash flow was reported at $3.7 million, contributing to a year-to-date free cash flow of $11.7 million. Despite a 7% decrease from the previous quarter, total revenues were $63.2 million, with a contribution margin of $13.2 million or $11.09 per ton sold. Smart Sand also highlighted a decrease in capital expenditures, down to $5.1 million year-to-date compared to $16.1 million in 2023, and anticipated total capital expenditures to remain under $10 million for 2024. The company announced a share buyback plan of up to $10 million and recently paid a special dividend of $0.10 per share, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Looking forward, Smart Sand expects a pickup in activity, especially in natural gas markets, and anticipates continued demand for Northern White Sand. They foresee fourth-quarter sand sales volumes ranging from 1.1 to 1.4 million tons and anticipate positive free cash flow for the year despite increased capital expenditures in the fourth quarter.

Smart Sand Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall fundamentals are mixed: balance sheet leverage is conservative and recent cash flow improved materially (strong operating and free cash flow in 2025), but profitability is thin and volatile with low gross margins and a swing to operating losses in 2025.
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Revenue recovered strongly from 2020 levels and remained solid through 2025, but growth has been inconsistent (including a sharp decline in 2025). Profitability is thin and volatile: gross margin is low (~11–14% recently), operating profit swung from positive (2024) to negative (2025), and net margins have been near breakeven in the last two years. The business shows it can generate profits in better environments, but current earnings quality and margin stability remain weak.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Leverage looks conservative, with debt-to-equity consistently low (roughly ~0.15–0.23) and equity forming a substantial base relative to assets. While returns on equity have been modest recently (low single digits in 2024–2025), the balance sheet appears positioned to absorb cyclicality better than many peers. The main drawback is that profitability has not been strong enough to consistently produce attractive returns on that capital base.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow improved materially in 2025 versus 2024, with free cash flow turning into a sizable positive level and showing strong growth year over year. Cash flow has been uneven historically (including negative free cash flow in 2022), but the latest period suggests improved conversion and discipline, helping offset weak accounting earnings.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue330.15M311.37M295.97M255.74M126.65M
Gross Profit37.89M44.82M41.55M29.59M-15.91M
EBITDA-1.73M31.75M27.29M24.98M-31.61M
Net Income1.34M2.99M4.65M-703.00K-50.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets340.01M341.55M346.30M360.00M374.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments22.55M1.55M6.07M5.51M25.59M
Total Debt36.18M37.22M43.75M44.54M55.20M
Total Liabilities100.32M97.74M104.03M116.53M132.86M
Stockholders Equity239.70M243.81M242.27M243.47M241.16M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow32.52M10.85M7.96M-7.31M21.22M
Operating Cash Flow44.12M17.86M30.99M5.42M32.44M
Investing Cash Flow-10.86M-6.92M-22.90M-18.21M-11.14M
Financing Cash Flow-12.26M-15.46M-7.53M-7.29M-7.43M

Smart Sand Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.93
Price Trends
50DMA
4.43
Positive
100DMA
3.53
Positive
200DMA
2.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.24
Positive
RSI
59.12
Neutral
STOCH
44.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SND, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.04, below the 50-day MA of 4.43, and above the 200-day MA of 2.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SND.

Smart Sand Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$101.23M8.7811.89%16.61%-72.29%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
64
Neutral
$225.96M159.690.56%18.98%
52
Neutral
$122.49M-19.46-5.18%7.46%-165.76%
50
Neutral
$45.31M-0.59-12.57%-45.75%
45
Neutral
$106.18M-31.99-19.81%-22.31%39.11%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SND
Smart Sand
5.19
3.21
162.12%
DWSN
Dawson Geophysical Company
3.42
2.09
157.14%
NCSM
Ncs Multistage Holdings
39.84
13.87
53.41%
KLXE
KLX Energy Services Holdings
2.54
-1.49
-36.97%
DTI
Drilling Tools International
3.48
0.46
15.23%

Smart Sand Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Smart Sand Authorizes New Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Feb 26, 2026

On February 23, 2026, Smart Sand’s board approved a new two-year share repurchase program of up to $20 million in ordinary shares, effective April 4, 2026, following the expiration of its current buyback plan. This adds to an ongoing capital return strategy that in 2025 included $8 million in dividends and repurchases and an earlier $10 million authorization, underscoring a commitment to shareholder returns alongside operational growth.

For the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, Smart Sand reported revenue of $86.0 million and $330.2 million, with record annual sales volumes of 5.4 million tons and free cash flow of about $33 million. Despite higher logistics and production costs pressuring margins and net income to $1.3 million, the company generated strong operating cash flow, expanded its Industrial Products Solutions business, and positioned itself to benefit from expected growth in natural gas demand in its core North American markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SND) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smart Sand stock, see the SND Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026