Smith Micro Software (SMSI)
NASDAQ:SMSI
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Smith Micro Software
(NASDAQ:SMSI)
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▲(392.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/06/26
SMSI scores low primarily due to steep revenue deterioration, persistent heavy losses, and ongoing negative free cash flow, which outweigh strong gross margins and low leverage. Technical indicators also reflect weak momentum, and valuation offers limited support given losses and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margin
Sustained ~75% gross margins reflect durable software economics and low incremental costs to serve additional subscribers. If revenue stabilizes, these margins provide a clear path to operating leverage and eventual profitability because fixed costs can be absorbed as volumes recover.
Negative Factors
Multi-year Revenue Decline
A sustained, multi-year top-line collapse undermines operating leverage and makes current fixed-costs unsustainable. Even with strong unit economics, persistent revenue loss signals customer churn, contract non-renewals or market displacement that must be reversed to restore margins, cash flow and investor confidence.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margin
Sustained ~75% gross margins reflect durable software economics and low incremental costs to serve additional subscribers. If revenue stabilizes, these margins provide a clear path to operating leverage and eventual profitability because fixed costs can be absorbed as volumes recover.
Read all positive factors
Smith Micro Software (SMSI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.20M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)917.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-12.47%
EPS Growth20.72%
CountryUS
Employees164
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.90
Shares Outstanding5,111,482
10 Day Avg. Volume2,390,606
30 Day Avg. Volume917,415
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio-1.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-14.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside463.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.40M
Smith Micro Software Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Smith Micro Software, Inc. engineers and distributes specialized software solutions globally, primarily to telecommunications and cable service providers, with the goal of enriching the mobile experience. Their product lineup includes the SafePath...
How the Company Makes Money
Smith Micro generally makes money by licensing and operating subscriber-facing software platforms that are embedded into or offered by telecom and broadband providers as value-added services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Recurring software/Saa...
Smith Micro Software Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture: revenue trends remain negative with meaningful YoY declines and a low cash balance that requires continued financing, which are material concerns. Offsetting this are clear operational improvements — substantial cost reductions, improved gross margins, reductions in non-GAAP losses, committed funding from founders, a refined product strategy (SafePath OS) that expands the addressable market, expected new carrier wins mid-2026, and an orderly leadership succession. Given the balance of meaningful financial risks against tangible progress on margins, cost structure, funding and go-to-market strategy, the tone is constructive but still dependent on execution and the realization of expected customer wins and funding plans.Positive Updates
Strategic Product Shift to SafePath OS and Enlarged TAM
Refocused product strategy on phones with SafePath OS for kids and seniors; senior-focused solution more than doubles the total addressable market and is cited as a key differentiator versus over-the-top apps.
Negative Updates
Revenue Declines — Quarterly and Annual
Q4 2025 revenue of $4.0M versus $5.0M in Q4 2024 (down 20% YoY) and down $0.3M (7%) sequentially from Q3 2025. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $17.4M versus $20.6M in 2024 (down $3.2M or 16% YoY).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Product Shift to SafePath OS and Enlarged TAM
Refocused product strategy on phones with SafePath OS for kids and seniors; senior-focused solution more than doubles the total addressable market and is cited as a key differentiator versus over-the-top apps.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call management guided Q1 2026 consolidated revenue of approximately $4.2M–$4.5M and gross margin of 76%–78% (rising to 78%–80% after a full quarter of cost savings, with a long‑term target of 85%), said non‑GAAP operating expenses fell to $4.7M in Q4 (down ~19% YoY and ~17% sequentially) and are expected to decline another ~5% in Q1, and reiterated that a reduced GAAP loss is expected in Q1 and non‑GAAP profitability in Q2 and beyond; they highlighted cost savings of ~$1.8M per quarter vs Q2 2025 (a $7.2M run‑rate, excluding ~$600k of separation costs) and >$10M of annualized reductions, reported Q4 GAAP net loss $4.7M ($0.20/sh) and non‑GAAP net loss $2.1M ($0.09/sh), FY2025 GAAP net loss $30M ($1.46/sh) and non‑GAAP net loss $10.9M ($0.53/sh), cash of $1.5M at 12/31/25, $2.7M of Q4 financing closed, and an expected convertible note financing (including ~$4M from the Smiths plus roll‑overs of ~$585k and roughly half of $485k) to close imminently (note due March 2029); management also expects to add two carrier customers by mid‑2026.Smith Micro Software Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.96M | 17.36M | 20.55M | 40.86M | 48.51M | 58.42M |
| Gross Profit | 12.80M | 12.86M | 14.43M | 30.30M | 34.30M | 45.72M |
| EBITDA | -1.41M | -13.85M | -19.10M | -10.66M | -17.67M | -8.74M |
| Net Income | -28.05M | -30.10M | -48.70M | -24.40M | -29.28M | -31.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 25.79M | 24.97M | 48.05M | 85.58M | 103.58M | 114.51M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.74M | 1.49M | 2.81M | 7.13M | 14.03M | 16.08M |
| Total Debt | 3.78M | 2.34M | 2.57M | 3.26M | 13.42M | 5.87M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.45M | 6.58M | 7.29M | 10.19M | 27.20M | 13.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.34M | 18.39M | 40.76M | 75.39M | 76.38M | 100.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -10.40M | -7.28M | -14.31M | -6.98M | -19.31M | -13.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -10.34M | -7.19M | -14.29M | -6.97M | -19.26M | -12.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.19M | 1.20M | 178.00K | 132.00K | 115.00K | -57.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.61M | 4.68M | 9.80M | -60.00K | 17.09M | 60.74M |
Smith Micro Software Technical Analysis
Negative
0.71
Price Trends
3.92
Negative
3.47
Positive
3.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
36.01
Neutral
22.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMSI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.07, below the 50-day MA of 3.92, and below the 200-day MA of 3.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMSI.
Smith Micro Software Risk Analysis
Smith Micro Software disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smith Micro Software reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Smith Micro Software Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
SMSI
Smith Micro Software
3.56
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-20.52%
FTFT
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MYSE
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NVNI
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SPPL
Simpple Ltd.
3.76
0.83
28.33%
Smith Micro Software Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Smith Micro Shareholders Approve Reverse Split and Governance Measures
Neutral
May 26, 2026
Smith Micro Software, Inc. shareholders approved several corporate actions at the May 26, 2026 annual meeting, including an amendment to allow a reverse stock split and subsequent director elections, executive compensation on an advisory basis, an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.