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Smith Micro Software (SMSI)
NASDAQ:SMSI

Smith Micro Software (SMSI) AI Stock Analysis

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Smith Micro Software

(NASDAQ:SMSI)

33Underperform
Smith Micro Software's overall stock score is low due to severe financial performance issues, marked by declining revenues, persistent losses, and weak cash flows. Technical analysis indicates ongoing bearish momentum, compounded by poor valuation metrics. The mixed sentiment from the earnings call offers some hope for future growth, contingent on execution of strategic initiatives. However, substantial risks remain, particularly regarding financial sustainability and market conditions.

Smith Micro Software (SMSI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Smith Micro Software Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSmith Micro Software, Inc. is a software solutions company that specializes in developing and marketing wireless and mobility software products and services. The company primarily operates in the telecommunications sector, providing solutions that empower wireless network operators, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and enterprises to optimize and manage their wireless networks. Its core products include platforms for network connectivity, device management, and location-based services, which are designed to enhance the user experience and improve operational efficiency.
How the Company Makes MoneySmith Micro Software makes money through the sale of its software solutions and services to wireless carriers, device manufacturers, and enterprises. The company's revenue model is primarily based on licensing its software platforms, offering subscription-based services, and providing professional services such as software customization and integration. Key revenue streams include recurring revenue from software licenses, maintenance and support contracts, and additional services related to their software products. Significant partnerships with major wireless carriers and technology companies also contribute to its earnings by expanding its market reach and customer base.

Smith Micro Software Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Smith Micro Software is experiencing financial challenges with declining revenues, negative margins, and cash flow issues. While the balance sheet shows some stability due to a strong equity base, the overall financial health is concerning.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Smith Micro Software has experienced declining revenues over recent years, with a significant drop from $58.4M in 2021 to $24.2M in the TTM period. Gross profit margins have also decreased, and the company has been facing negative EBIT and net margins, indicating operational and profitability challenges. The revenue growth rate is negative, signaling a downward trend in sales.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Despite a high debt-to-equity ratio in recent periods, the company maintains a positive equity position. However, declining total assets and stockholders' equity over the years reflect financial stress. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid base of equity compared to total assets.
Cash Flow
39
Negative
Smith Micro Software's cash flow statement shows negative operating and free cash flows, which have worsened in the TTM period. This trend indicates liquidity challenges and potential difficulties in sustaining operations without external financing. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting cash management concerns.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
24.18M40.86M48.51M58.42M51.30M43.35M
Gross Profit
12.72M30.30M34.30M45.72M46.11M39.42M
EBIT
-26.48M-18.05M-30.93M-5.21M3.52M10.11M
EBITDA
-19.39M-10.49M-17.67M-7.24M3.52M13.10M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-51.02M-24.40M-29.28M-31.04M4.17M10.72M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.38M7.13M14.03M16.08M25.75M28.27M
Total Assets
33.60M85.58M103.58M115.36M72.90M61.20M
Total Debt
2.86M3.26M13.42M5.87M6.24M7.00M
Net Debt
-4.51M-3.86M-602.00K-10.21M-19.52M-21.27M
Total Liabilities
7.56M10.19M27.20M14.80M14.19M12.51M
Stockholders Equity
26.04M75.39M76.38M100.56M58.72M48.68M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-10.41M-6.98M-19.31M-13.75M6.60M8.33M
Operating Cash Flow
-10.39M-6.97M-19.26M-12.92M7.92M9.99M
Investing Cash Flow
247.00K132.00K115.00K-57.50M-14.68M-5.26M
Financing Cash Flow
3.67M-60.00K17.09M60.74M4.24M11.38M

Smith Micro Software Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.71
Price Trends
50DMA
1.32
Negative
100DMA
1.09
Negative
200DMA
1.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.09
Positive
RSI
22.78
Positive
STOCH
14.27
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMSI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.27, below the 50-day MA of 1.32, and below the 200-day MA of 1.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMSI.

Smith Micro Software Risk Analysis

Smith Micro Software disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smith Micro Software reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Smith Micro Software Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$1.52B21.1615.57%2.09%5.40%14.68%
58
Neutral
$21.35B9.96-19.72%2.38%5.03%-22.83%
51
Neutral
$283.14M-40.78%-2.23%19.48%
33
Underperform
$19.07M-89.00%-44.64%-54.65%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMSI
Smith Micro Software
0.71
-1.99
-73.70%
EGHT
8X8
2.12
-0.70
-24.82%
SPNS
Sapiens
27.32
-2.65
-8.84%

Smith Micro Software Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -34.26% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted promising developments with the launch of SafePath Kids and growing interest in SafePath OS, indicating potential future growth. However, significant revenue declines and ongoing net losses pose challenges. The sentiment is mixed, with notable achievements balancing the substantial financial setbacks.
Highlights
Launch of SafePath Kids with Orange Spain
SafePath Kids was successfully launched with Orange Spain's TuYo solution, marking a significant deployment under the renewed focus of aligning with mobile operators' core business. This deployment integrates SafePath directly into the carrier's offering, providing a safer mobile experience for children.
Strong Interest in SafePath OS
There is broadening interest in SafePath OS from several partners worldwide. The company is in in-depth discussions with multiple carriers and plans to capitalize on this growing demand.
CommSuite Revenue Growth
CommSuite revenues increased by approximately $600,000 compared to Q4 2023, driven by subscriber growth on the Boost CommSuite Premium Visual Voicemail platform.
Cost Reduction Achievements
The company exceeded its cost reduction goals with a decrease in total non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $3.1 million compared to Q1 2024.
Lowlights
Significant Revenue Decline
Q4 2024 revenue was $5 million, a 42% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2023. Annual revenue for 2024 was $20.6 million, a 50% decline from 2023, primarily due to the conclusion of the Verizon Family Safety Contract and decline in legacy Sprint subscribers.
Ongoing GAAP Net Losses
The GAAP net loss for Q4 2024 was $4.4 million, compared to a loss of $6.7 million in Q4 2023. The annual GAAP net loss for 2024 was $48.7 million, significantly higher than the $24.4 million loss in 2023, impacted by a $24 million goodwill impairment charge.
Expected Revenue Decline in Q1 2025
The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to be in the range of $4.6 million to $5 million, partly due to the timing of revenue from ongoing opportunities and an anticipated decline in CommSuite revenues.
Company Guidance
During the Smith Micro Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance on several financial metrics and strategic initiatives. They reported a revenue of $5 million for Q4 2024, which showed a 42% decline compared to the same quarter in 2023, but an increase of 7% from Q3 2024. The annual revenue for 2024 was $20.6 million, marking a 50% decrease from 2023, primarily due to the end of the Verizon Family Safety Contract and a decline in Safe and Found Family Safety revenue post the T-Mobile acquisition of Sprint. The gross profit for Q4 2024 was $3.8 million, with a gross margin of 76%, and GAAP operating expenses dropped by 32% from the previous year. The company expects Q1 2025 revenues to range between $4.6 million and $5 million, with a gross margin projected between 72% and 75%. They are focusing on expanding their SafePath offerings, including SafePath Kids and SafePath OS for seniors, which align with mobile operators' core strategies. The company aims for significant growth in the latter half of 2025, driven by new product launches and strategic partnerships.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.