Summit Midstream (SMC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $572.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 68.17K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 17.09%
• EPS Growth: 72.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 272
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): -0.66
• Shares Outstanding: 12,261,954
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 79,063
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 68,165
• PEG Ratio: 1.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.95
• 1Y Price Target: $48.50
• Price Target Upside: 83.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $591.30M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(21.03% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial health (strong cash generation and meaningful deleveraging) but held back by ongoing net losses. Technicals are mildly supportive with neutral momentum, while valuation looks reasonable on P/E but lacks dividend support. Earnings-call commentary adds modest upside due to Double E commercial wins and a clearer long-term growth plan, tempered by still-elevated leverage and near-term segment headwinds.

Positive Factors

Consistent cash generation

Summit generates durable operating cash flows and materially improved free cash flow in 2025. Persistent positive cash conversion supports liquidity, funds growth projects and deleveraging, and provides a structurally stronger buffer against commodity cycles even while accounting earnings lag.

Meaningful deleveraging

Reported net debt reduction and a materially stronger balance sheet represent lasting de-risking. Lower leverage increases financial flexibility to fund capex, pursue Double E expansion, and reduces refinancing risk, helping management reach its dividend and capital-allocation objectives if maintained.

Long-term Double E contracts & expansion optionality

Firm take-or-pay commitments and binding open-season optionality create durable contracted throughput and predictable revenue growth for the Permian franchise. This structural backlog underpins management's multi-year EBITDA growth thesis and reduces exposure to short-term well timing.

Negative Factors

Persistent net losses

Despite improving margins and revenue, recurring net losses hinder return generation and limit retained-earnings accumulation. Continued negative net income constrains ROE, limits ability to reinstate dividends, and means cash strength must be sustained to bridge to consistent profitability.

Regional segment headwinds (Piceance, Midcon, Rockies)

Concentrated regional slowdowns, notably Piceance with zero 2026 connects and rolling off MVCs, create structural volume and revenue pressure in affected basins. These persistent basin-specific headwinds can depress utilization and margin recovery absent new upstream activity or contract resets.

Leverage above target and elevated near-term capex

Higher-than-target pro forma leverage plus above-historical capex to commercialize Double E raises execution and financing risk. Sustained elevated spending while earnings remain negative could slow deleveraging and delay dividend reinstatement, tightening liquidity if commodity or timing risks hit.

Summit Midstream Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Summit Midstream Corporation focuses on owning, developing, and operating midstream energy infrastructure assets primarily shale formations in the continental United States. It operates natural gas, crude oil, and produced water gathering systems in four unconventional resource basins, including the Williston Basin in North Dakota, which includes the Bakken and Three Forks shale formations; the Denver-Julesburg Basin that consists of the Niobrara and Codell shale formations in Colorado and Wyoming; the Fort Worth Basin in Texas, which comprises the Barnett Shale formation; and the Piceance Basin in Colorado, which includes the Mesaverde formation, as well as the emerging Mancos and Niobrara Shale formations. It serves natural gas and crude oil producers. Summit Midstream Corporation was founded in 2012 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

SMC primarily makes money by charging fees under contracts to gather and move natural gas (and associated volumes) from producer wellheads through its gathering pipelines and related midstream systems. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Gathering and transportation fees: charges based on volumes moved through the company’s gathering systems and pipelines, often set under long-term, fee-based arrangements with producer customers. (2) Compression and treating fees: charges for field-level services that increase pressure and/or condition gas to meet pipeline specifications; these services are commonly provided as part of an integrated gathering system offering. (3) Minimum volume commitments and/or deficiency payments (where applicable): some midstream contracts include provisions that require customers to pay for a minimum level of service or volume capacity; if actual throughput is below the commitment, the customer may owe a shortfall payment under the contract terms. (4) Other midstream service revenues: depending on specific asset configurations, revenues can also include ancillary services tied to operating and maintaining the system or providing connectivity to downstream markets. The company’s earnings are influenced by producer activity levels and throughput on its systems, the mix of fee structures across contracts (e.g., purely volumetric vs. minimum commitments), and the credit quality and concentration of its producer customers. Specific material partnerships or counterparty arrangements beyond its producer customer contracts are null.

Summit Midstream Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are improving but still mixed. Cash flow is a clear strength with consistently positive operating cash flow and stronger free cash flow in 2025, while the balance sheet shows meaningful deleveraging (debt reported at zero in 2025). However, profitability remains the main weakness, with continued net losses despite better 2025 gross margin and revenue improvement.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile but improved in 2025 (up ~6.7% year over year after a decline in 2024). Profitability remains the key weakness: net income is still negative in most years (including 2025), although the loss narrowed materially versus 2024. Gross margin expanded sharply in 2025, suggesting a much better underlying spread, but overall earnings quality is mixed given continued net losses and inconsistent operating profitability year-to-year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically in 2025, with total debt reported at zero versus meaningful debt levels from 2020–2024 and debt-to-equity previously running around ~1.3x–2.1x—this is a major de-risking if sustainable. Equity is solid relative to assets, but returns on equity have been negative in recent years due to net losses. The balance sheet looks substantially stronger on leverage, but profitability still needs to catch up to support consistent value creation.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow is consistently positive across the period and rebounded strongly in 2025. Free cash flow also improved meaningfully in 2025 versus 2024, indicating better cash conversion and/or lower cash outlays. A watch-out is that free cash flow relative to net income is less informative while earnings are negative, but overall the business is producing cash despite accounting losses, which supports liquidity and flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	562.09M	429.62M	458.90M	369.59M	401.56M
Gross Profit	408.05M	113.01M	122.94M	89.56M	245.41M
EBITDA	203.73M	250.53M	225.86M	81.17M	187.22M
Net Income	-1.91M	-113.17M	-38.95M	-123.46M	-19.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.39B	2.36B	2.49B	2.56B	2.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.27M	22.82M	14.04M	11.81M	7.35M
Total Debt	1.05B	993.58M	1.48B	1.50B	1.36B
Total Liabilities	1.30B	1.39B	1.65B	1.68B	1.51B
Stockholders Equity	546.18M	467.79M	718.56M	764.82M	904.36M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.55M	8.16M	58.00M	68.27M	140.07M
Operating Cash Flow	133.59M	61.77M	126.91M	98.74M	165.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-163.15M	487.06M	-74.76M	-226.56M	-165.73M
Financing Cash Flow	24.04M	-540.28M	-49.04M	121.77M	4.66M

Summit Midstream Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.44, below the 50-day MA of 28.84, and above the 200-day MA of 25.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMC.

Summit Midstream Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DKL	69 Neutral	$2.87B	13.53	461.30%	9.78%	-1.78%	9.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SMC	64 Neutral	$572.05M	-2.74	-2.47%	―	17.09%	72.64%
NGL	64 Neutral	$1.43B	6.63	24.41%	―	-38.82%	92.56%
GEL	58 Neutral	$2.15B	24.04	-162.28%	4.14%	-36.47%	-75.37%
MMLP	58 Neutral	$104.67M	-7.02	18.35%	0.77%	-0.58%	-587.83%