Serve Robotics Inc (SERV) AI Stock Analysis

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Serve Robotics Inc

(NASDAQ:SERV)

Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:

$12.50

▼(-2.42%Downside)

Serve Robotics Inc's stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and positive earnings call insights, highlighting growth and expansion. However, ongoing financial struggles and unattractive valuation metrics present significant risks.

Serve Robotics Inc (SERV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$731.75M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)5.66M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.38

Revenue Growth17.26%

EPS Growth-32.57%

CountryUS

Employees120

SectorGeneral

Sector StrengthN/A

IndustryIndustrial - Machinery

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.23

Shares Outstanding57,123,356

10 Day Avg. Volume8,657,662

30 Day Avg. Volume5,660,308

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.53

Price to Book (P/B)1.75

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-11.26

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$17.00

Price Target Upside32.71% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Serve Robotics Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionServe Robotics Inc (SERV) is a company that specializes in the design and development of autonomous sidewalk delivery robots. These robots are primarily used for last-mile delivery solutions in urban environments, providing a sustainable, efficient, and contactless method for transporting goods. The company's primary sectors include robotics, logistics, and technology, with core products focusing on the deployment of their self-driving delivery robots.

How the Company Makes MoneyServe Robotics Inc generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering delivery services using their autonomous robots. The company partners with restaurants, retailers, and logistics companies to facilitate last-mile deliveries, charging fees per delivery or through subscription models. Additionally, Serve Robotics may generate income through strategic partnerships and collaborations with major players in the food delivery and retail industries, which can include revenue-sharing agreements or service contracts. The company's focus on innovation and technology also opens opportunities for licensing its robotics technology to other businesses in the logistics and transportation sectors.

Serve Robotics Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 95.27%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Serve Robotics demonstrated strong growth in revenue and operational efficiency, with significant fleet expansion and new market launches. However, the company continues to face high operating expenses and negative EBITDA, reflecting the upfront costs of scaling. Overall, the positive achievements in growth and expansion outweigh these financial challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Fleet Expansion

Serve Robotics built 250 new third-generation robots in Q1, with a target to deploy 2,000 robots by the end of the year. This expansion resulted in a 75% increase in delivery volume over the quarter.

Revenue Growth

Revenue for Q1 2025 increased 150% sequentially to $440,000. This growth was driven by $229,000 in software services and a 20% increase in fleet revenues, totaling $212,000.

Increased Operational Efficiency

The company managed to reduce the percentage of deliveries failing to meet the internal delivery deadline by 65% compared to the previous year, while maintaining a consistent average delivery drop-off time.

Strong Capital Position

Serve Robotics raised an additional $91 million in Q1, ending the quarter with $198 million on the balance sheet, providing strategic flexibility.

Market Expansion

New markets were launched in Miami and Dallas, with plans to launch in Atlanta by the end of Q2. The company also increased its presence in LA, now serving over 320 households and 1,500 restaurants, a 50% increase since the last update.

Negative Updates

Operating Expenses Increase

Total GAAP operating expenses were $13.5 million in Q1, up from $12.9 million in Q4 and $8.3 million in the same quarter last year. Non-GAAP operating expenses also increased.

Continued Negative EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was negative $7.1 million, an improvement from the previous quarter but still negative as the company absorbs upfront expansion costs.

High Startup Costs

Total cost of revenues increased by approximately $1 million due to startup costs related to scaling up the fleet and launching in new markets.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, Serve Robotics provided guidance indicating significant growth and expansion, with key metrics highlighting their progress. They built 250 new third-generation robots, aiming to deploy a total of 2,000 by the end of the year. The company's delivery volume increased by over 75% throughout the quarter, with expectations for 60% to 75% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2. Revenue for Q1 jumped 150% sequentially to $440,000, driven by software services and a 20% increase in fleet revenues. Serve Robotics raised an additional $91 million, ending the quarter with $198 million in cash, and projects an annualized revenue run rate of $60 million to $80 million once the full fleet is operational. They plan to launch in Atlanta by the end of Q2 and have agreements for software platform revenues starting in Q2, indicating a strategic diversification in their revenue streams.

Serve Robotics Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Serve Robotics Inc displays a challenging financial position with ongoing profitability issues, high dependency on external financing, and negative cash flows. Recent revenue increases and equity improvements show potential for growth, but operational inefficiencies and cash flow challenges present significant risks.

Income Statement

Very Negative

Serve Robotics Inc shows significant challenges in profitability with negative gross profit and net income consistently over the years. The recent revenue growth is promising, but the company still faces high EBIT and EBITDA losses, indicating ongoing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals substantial improvement in stockholders' equity due to the latest financing activities. However, the company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting reliance on debt financing, and a low equity ratio, indicating potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Negative

The cash flow statement shows negative free and operating cash flows, with heavy reliance on financing activities for cash inflow. Despite a recent infusion of cash, the company struggles to generate cash from operations, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.81M	207.54K	107.82K	0.00
	Gross Profit
-75.16K	-1.52M	-1.04M	-42.47K
	EBIT
-38.29M	-20.73M	-20.95M	-10.62M
	EBITDA
-37.98M	-17.39M	-20.83M	-10.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-39.19M	-24.81M	-21.86M	-21.67M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
123.27M	6.76K	2.72M	7.97M
	Total Assets
139.60M	2.80M	8.54M	8.66M
	Total Debt
2.34M	4.37M	7.48M	0.00
	Net Debt
-120.92M	4.37M	4.77M	-7.97M
	Total Liabilities
7.92M	6.84M	21.00M	336.31K
	Stockholders Equity
131.68M	-4.03M	-12.45M	8.32M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-31.79M	-15.98M	-25.05M	-10.87M
	Operating Cash Flow
-21.54M	-15.97M	-21.40M	-10.71M
	Investing Cash Flow
-10.32M	-4.91K	-4.06M	-258.73K
	Financing Cash Flow
155.12M	13.27M	20.21M	18.93M

Serve Robotics Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price12.81

Price Trends

50DMA

7.23

Positive

100DMA

10.79

Positive

200DMA

10.36

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.44

Negative

RSI

73.14

Negative

STOCH

89.30

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.86, above the 50-day MA of 7.23, and above the 200-day MA of 10.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.30 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SERV.

Serve Robotics Inc Risk Analysis

Serve Robotics Inc disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Serve Robotics Inc reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Serve Robotics Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SERV	62 Neutral	$731.75M	―	-43.04%	―	17.26%	-32.57%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$4.92B	20.26	-16.90%	5.18%	13.58%	-28.06%
BWEN	53 Neutral	$39.02M	30.96	-1.24%	―	-25.94%	-108.22%
LASE	50 Neutral	$36.56M	―	-30.59%	―	-44.07%	-78.93%
CETY	40 Neutral	$18.08M	―	-90.36%	―	-87.59%	51.14%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SERV

Serve Robotics Inc

12.65

9.61

316.12%

BWEN

Broadwind Energy

1.70

-2.25

-56.96%

CETY

Clean Energy Technologies

0.26

-1.05

-80.15%

LASE

Laser Photonics Corp.

2.41

0.47

24.23%

Serve Robotics Inc Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Serve Robotics Inc Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results

Positive

May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Serve Robotics Inc. announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting the successful deployment of 250 new third-generation robots and expansion into Miami and Dallas. The company reported a 150% increase in revenue compared to Q4 2024, reaching $440,000, and strengthened its balance sheet with $91.5 million in new capital. Serve also expanded its merchant partnerships significantly and is on track to deploy 2,000 robots by the end of the year, aiming for a $60-$80 million annualized revenue run-rate once fully deployed. The company is also focusing on monetizing its software and data platform, expecting recurring revenue from new key customers.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.