Origin Agritech (SEED) AI Stock Analysis

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Origin Agritech

(NASDAQ:SEED)

41Neutral

Origin Agritech's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative cash flows. While recent earnings call highlights suggest some strategic and technological progress, these are counterbalanced by the company's operational inefficiencies and market bearishness. The valuation indicates potential undervaluation, but this is mitigated by financial instability.

Origin Agritech (SEED) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$10.73M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)77.39K

Price to Earnings (P/E)3.3

Beta (1Y)0.96

Revenue Growth18.41%

EPS Growth-64.88%

CountryUS

Employees68

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength58

IndustryAgricultural Inputs

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.45

Shares Outstanding7,199,998

10 Day Avg. Volume95,800

30 Day Avg. Volume77,394

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.88

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Origin Agritech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrigin Agritech (SEED) is a leading agricultural biotechnology company focused on the research, development, and commercialization of crop seeds in China. The company operates primarily in the seed industry, leveraging its proprietary technology to develop high-yield and high-quality hybrid crop seeds. Origin Agritech's core products include genetically modified (GM) seeds for crops such as corn, rice, and canola, aimed at enhancing crop productivity and sustainability in agriculture.

How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Agritech makes money through the sale of its proprietary hybrid and genetically modified crop seeds. The company's revenue model is centered around its seed sales to farmers and agricultural businesses, primarily within the Chinese market. Key revenue streams include direct sales of seeds and licensing agreements for the use of its biotechnology in other seed products. The company may also engage in collaborations and partnerships with other agricultural firms to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include advancements in biotechnology, government policies favoring GM crops, and the increasing demand for high-yield and sustainable agricultural practices.

Origin Agritech Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Agritech faces substantial financial challenges, with unstable revenues, operational inefficiencies, high leverage, and negative cash flows. Although there is some revenue growth, the negative equity and poor cash flow position are significant concerns.

Income Statement

Negative

Origin Agritech has shown inconsistent revenue growth with significant fluctuations in net income. Despite a positive net income in the latest period, the company has experienced negative EBIT and volatile EBITDA margins, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Very Negative

The company exhibits a negative stockholders' equity, reflecting a concerning financial position. The high debt-to-equity ratio indicates significant leverage, posing potential risks to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Negative

Origin Agritech has struggled with negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, reflecting challenges in generating cash from operations. The company's reliance on financing activities to manage cash flow needs further highlights cash management issues.

Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
113.38M	93.31M	52.58M	46.42M	52.51M
	Gross Profit
16.07M	17.25M	16.19M	12.81M	3.51M
	EBIT
-36.60M	-14.99M	13.45M	-68.04M	-63.49M
	EBITDA
23.08M	67.84M	17.35M	-137.91M	-86.01M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
20.71M	55.33M	2.33M	-127.08M	-102.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
8.38M	23.71M	17.67M	15.35M	22.48M
	Total Assets
131.56M	238.51M	135.96M	119.04M	254.88M
	Total Debt
5.08M	241.00K	139.28M	140.77M	140.89M
	Net Debt
-3.30M	-23.47M	121.61M	125.42M	118.41M
	Total Liabilities
190.16M	319.77M	308.60M	304.64M	340.35M
	Stockholders Equity
-31.29M	-57.40M	-133.87M	-140.67M	-77.19M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-20.00M	-17.66M	2.67M	-26.79M	-5.62M
	Operating Cash Flow
-15.03M	-5.46M	3.29M	-25.08M	-5.62M
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.97M	-11.22M	-1.10M	-1.21M	-42.24M
	Financing Cash Flow
4.50M	22.93M	-332.00K	19.84M	65.92M

Origin Agritech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1.44

Price Trends

50DMA

1.98

Negative

100DMA

2.11

Negative

200DMA

2.56

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.13

Positive

RSI

33.76

Neutral

STOCH

4.18

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEED, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.83, below the 50-day MA of 1.98, and below the 200-day MA of 2.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEED.

Origin Agritech Risk Analysis

Origin Agritech disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Agritech reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Origin Agritech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (47)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTR	67 Neutral	$34.69B	38.00	2.72%	4.25%	-9.23%	-45.29%
BIOX	58 Neutral	$278.44M	193.04	0.51%	―	-10.30%	-93.51%
GROW	54 Neutral	$28.71M	58.42	1.04%	4.26%	-67.99%	-83.33%
RKDA	51 Neutral	$4.31M	―	-60.76%	―	-6.20%	64.07%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.53B	-3.19	-22.23%	3.49%	4.01%	-27.90%
CRESY	46 Neutral	$728.54M	―	-8.05%	8.95%	-3.06%	-124.82%
SEED	41 Neutral	$10.73M	3.28		―	18.41%	-64.88%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SEED

Origin Agritech

1.49

-1.67

-52.85%

CRESY

Cresud Sociedad

11.48

3.47

43.32%

GROW

US Global Investors

2.15

-0.52

-19.48%

RKDA

Arcadia Biosciences

3.15

1.23

64.06%

BIOX

Bioceres Crop Solutions

4.44

-7.99

-64.28%

TSE:NTR

Nutrien

72.29

4.04

5.91%

Origin Agritech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 10, 2025 | % Change Since: -44.83% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth and technological advancements, such as the GMO safety certificate and gene editing breakthroughs. However, these were tempered by challenges including decreased net income and increased expenses.

Highlights

Revenue Growth

Origin Agritech achieved a revenue of $16.2 million in fiscal year 2024, representing a 24.6% increase from the previous year.

GMO Safety Certificate

Received a GMO safety certificate for BBL2-2 transgenic maize, enhancing insect resistance and herbicide tolerance.

Gene Editing Breakthrough

Published breakthrough in induction line gene editing technology, allowing for faster development of improved maize traits.

New Product Pipeline

Eight new varieties launching in 2025, targeting different regions with several more in advanced trials.

Increased R&D Investment

R&D investment increased to $1.5 million from $1 million, advancing biotechnology platforms and developing new seed varieties.

Lowlights

Decreased Net Income

Net income from continuing operations was $2.7 million, down from $8.7 million in the prior year due to one-time gains.

Increased General and Administrative Expenses

General and administrative expenses rose to $5.1 million from $1.99 million, driven by investments in talent and systems.

Reduced Cash Position

Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $1.2 million from $3.3 million the previous year.

Company Guidance

During the Origin Agritech Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call, CEO Weibin Yan and CFO Patrick Cheng presented a comprehensive update on the company's financial and strategic performance. The company reported a 24.6% increase in revenue, reaching $16.2 million, primarily driven by increased corn seed sales. Origin Agritech achieved significant milestones, including obtaining a GMO safety certificate for their BBL2-2 transgenic maize and advancing gene editing technology. While general and administrative expenses rose to $5.1 million, reflecting investments in talent and systems, R&D spending also increased to $1.5 million. The company's net income from continuing operations was $2.7 million, down from the previous year's $8.7 million due to one-time gains from subsidiary disposals. With $1.2 million in cash and cash equivalents, Origin Agritech aims for cash flow breakeven and plans further expansion, targeting a top-five position in China's corn seed industry by 2030-2032. The call emphasized the company's strategic roadmap and confidence in achieving long-term growth and profitability through biotechnology innovation and expanded seed offerings.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.