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Nutrien Ltd (TSE:NTR)
TSX:NTR
Top Page
Nutrien
(TSX:NTR)
67Neutral
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiency
Nutrien's investments in mining automation are aimed at further lowering controllable cost per ton, supporting its low-cost advantage.
Earnings
Retail EBITDA of $340M was 48% higher than the previous year on higher crop protection and seed margins, and lower expenses.
Market Confidence
As investors gain confidence in Nutrien's steady state, it is expected to re-rate to a higher EV/EBITDA multiple.
Negative Factors
Earnings Growth
A lack of earnings growth and limited prospects for sustained higher fertilizer prices will weigh on sentiment.
Market Instability
Brazil retail landscape remains challenging due to market instability.
Pricing Trends
Nutrien's large potash operation is likely to experience negative pricing comparisons because of adverse pricing trends.
Nutrien (NTR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$32.94B
Dividend Yield4.59%
Average Volume (3M)2.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.1
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth-9.23%
EPS Growth-45.29%
CountryCA
Employees25,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength60
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.87
Shares Outstanding488,556,980
10 Day Avg. Volume2,000,133
30 Day Avg. Volume2,169,265
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-7.10
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$83.41Price Target Upside23.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyNutrien makes money primarily through the sale of crop nutrients, including potash, nitrogen, and phosphate. As one of the largest producers of these essential fertilizers, Nutrien leverages its extensive production capabilities and distribution network to meet global demand. The company also generates revenue from its retail operations, which involve selling seeds, crop protection products, and providing agronomy services directly to farmers. Additionally, Nutrien benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that expand its market reach and operational efficiency. Factors such as global agricultural trends, commodity prices, and technological advancements in farming practices significantly influence Nutrien's earnings.
Nutrien Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Nutrien faces headwinds with declining revenue and profitability, as evidenced by deteriorating net margins and negative revenue growth. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a stable balance sheet with manageable leverage and a strong equity position. Cash flow performance is mixed, with solid operating cash flow but declining free cash flow. The company may need to address profitability and cash flow generation to enhance financial performance.Income Statement
Nutrien's income statement shows a decline in total revenue from 2022 to 2024, with a negative revenue growth rate of -7.54% in 2023 and -7.53% in 2024. Despite this, the company maintained a reasonable gross profit margin of 28.99% in 2024 and 30.16% in 2023. However, net profit margin deteriorated significantly to 2.59% in 2024 from 4.48% in 2023, indicating reduced profitability. The absence of EBIT data in 2024 further complicates the evaluation of core operational performance.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
Nutrien's balance sheet remains relatively stable with a healthy equity ratio of 47.09% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased slightly to 0.52 in 2024 from 0.50 in 2023, indicating manageable leverage levels. Return on equity has decreased to 2.76% in 2024 from 5.00% in 2023, reflecting pressure on profitability. Overall, the balance sheet suggests stability, albeit with some challenges in improving equity returns.75
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate of -43.98% in 2023 and -44.01% in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio was 5.24 in 2024, indicating strong cash flow generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio decreased to 2.05 in 2024 from 1.96 in 2023, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining free cash flow levels.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 25.97B | 28.08B | 37.88B | 27.71B | 20.91B | Gross Profit |
| 7.53B | 8.47B | 15.42B | 9.41B | 5.24B | EBIT |
| 0.00 | 4.35B | 10.81B | 4.78B | 1.61B | EBITDA |
| 4.21B | 4.88B | 12.07B | 6.58B | 2.89B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 674.00M | 1.26B | 7.66B | 3.15B | 459.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 853.00M | 941.00M | 901.00M | 499.00M | 1.45B | Total Assets |
| 51.84B | 52.75B | 54.59B | 49.95B | 47.19B | Total Debt |
| 12.81B | 12.57B | 11.93B | 10.85B | 11.36B | Net Debt |
| 11.95B | 11.63B | 11.03B | 10.35B | 9.91B | Total Liabilities |
| 27.40B | 27.55B | 28.72B | 26.25B | 24.83B | Stockholders Equity |
| 24.41B | 25.16B | 25.82B | 23.65B | 22.36B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 1.38B | 2.47B | 5.67B | 2.10B | 1.77B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 3.54B | 5.07B | 8.11B | 3.89B | 3.32B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -2.13B | -2.96B | -2.90B | -1.81B | -1.20B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.45B | -2.06B | -4.73B | -3.00B | -1.34B |
Nutrien Technical Analysis
Negative
67.42
Price Trends
72.85
Negative
69.67
Negative
67.10
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
45.19
Neutral
12.63
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 67.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.18, below the 50-day MA of 72.85, and above the 200-day MA of 67.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NTR.
Nutrien Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
TSE:NTR
Nutrien
67.42
-4.99
-6.90%
CBWBF
Canadian Western Bank
39.71
19.76
99.05%
TSE:AGT
Applied Graphite Technologies Corporation
0.11
-0.05
-31.25%
Nutrien Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -8.63% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Nutrien demonstrated strong performance with record potash volumes, significant retail EBITDA growth, and accelerated cost savings. However, challenges such as lower fertilizer prices, phosphate EBITDA decline, and tariff uncertainties persisted. Overall, the positive achievements slightly outweigh the lowlights.Highlights
Record Potash Volumes
Nutrien sold record potash volumes and progressed nitrogen brownfield expansions at two North American sites.
Retail Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Retail adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.7 billion, up 16% from the prior year, driven by stronger-than-expected crop protection margins in North America and improved Brazilian retail performance.
Cost Savings Acceleration
Nutrien accelerated the timeline for achieving $200 million in annual cost savings, expecting to achieve this target in 2025, one year earlier than initially planned.
GHG Emissions Reduction
Achieved a 15% reduction in total Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity in 2024 compared to the 2018 base year.
Dividend Growth
The dividend per share has been increased seven times since the beginning of 2018, with a total increase of 36%.
Lowlights
Lower Fertilizer Prices Impact
Adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion in 2024 was impacted by lower fertilizer prices, which more than offset increased downstream retail earnings.
Phosphate EBITDA Decline
Phosphate adjusted EBITDA was $384 million, down from the prior year, primarily due to lower production impacted by weather-related events and plant outages.
Tariff Uncertainty
Potential impacts of tariffs on Canadian potash exports to the U.S. could affect market dynamics, with costs likely passed on to U.S. farmers.
Ammonia Market Weakness
Ammonia prices declined entering 2025 due to weak fall application and new supply concerns, although optimism remains for the spring season.
Company Guidance
During Nutrien's 2024 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on various financial metrics and strategic goals. Nutrien achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion for 2024, despite lower fertilizer prices, due to increased downstream retail earnings, higher upstream fertilizer volumes, and reduced costs. Retail adjusted EBITDA reached $1.7 billion, marking a 16% increase over the previous year, driven by stronger-than-expected crop protection margins in North America and improvements in Brazilian retail performance. The company also reported a 7% reduction in potash controllable cash cost per tonne due to increased production and automation efforts. For 2025, Nutrien forecasts global potash shipments between 71 million to 75 million tonnes and anticipates U.S. corn acreage to rise to 91 to 93 million acres. The company set an annual potash sales volume guidance of 13.6 to 14.4 million tonnes, reflecting uncertainties such as potential tariffs on Canadian exports. Additionally, Nutrien aims to achieve $200 million in annual cost savings by 2025, a year ahead of schedule, and plans capital expenditures of $2 billion to $2.1 billion. The company continues to focus on strategic investments, share repurchases, and maintaining a stable and growing dividend.Nutrien Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Nutrien Unveils 2024 Sustainability Report
Neutral
Mar 13, 2025
Nutrien Ltd. has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting the company’s performance and progress in sustainability initiatives. This report underscores Nutrien’s commitment to enhancing its operational efficiency and sustainability practices, which are crucial for its industry positioning and stakeholder relationships.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Nutrien Announces Pricing of $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025
Nutrien Ltd. has announced the pricing of US$1.0 billion in senior notes, divided into US$400 million due in 2027 and US$600 million due in 2032. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debts maturing in 2025 and may also be used for reducing short-term credit facilities, financing working capital, and general corporate purposes. This move is part of Nutrien’s strategy to manage its debt efficiently and strengthen its financial position.
Stock BuybackDividends
Nutrien Boosts Dividend and Unveils Share Buyback Plan
Positive
Feb 19, 2025
Nutrien Ltd. has announced a one percent increase in its quarterly dividend to US$0.545 per share, payable on April 10, 2025, resulting in an annualized dividend of US$2.18 per share. Additionally, Nutrien’s Board of Directors has approved a plan to repurchase up to five percent of the company’s outstanding common shares over the next twelve months, subject to Toronto Stock Exchange approval, showcasing confidence in its financial stability and commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
M&A TransactionsStock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Nutrien Achieves Strong 2024 Results, Focuses on Strategic Growth
Positive
Feb 19, 2025
Nutrien reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results, showcasing significant progress towards its 2026 performance targets. The company achieved a net earnings of $700 million for 2024 and demonstrated growth in upstream fertilizer sales and downstream retail earnings. Nutrien continues to optimize capital allocation, having returned $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company also divested non-core assets totaling $60 million to focus on core strategic priorities. Looking ahead, Nutrien anticipates strong crop input demand and plans to strengthen its core business, improve earnings, and enhance free cash flow.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.