Nutrien Ltd (TSE:NTR)
TSX:NTR
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Nutrien
(TSX:NTR)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$121.00
▲(13.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
Overall score reflects solid but cyclical financial performance (earnings rebound but weaker and uneven free cash flow), supported by a constructive technical uptrend and reasonable valuation with a ~3.1% dividend. Earnings call was net-positive on execution and capital allocation, tempered by operational and regional risks (Brazil, Trinidad-related nitrogen volumes, working-capital and phosphate pressure).
Positive Factors
Scale & vertical integration
Record 27.5 Mt fertilizer sales demonstrate enduring scale across production, wholesale and retail. That integrated footprint supports margin capture at multiple value-chain points, improves logistics control and strengthens negotiating leverage with suppliers and customers over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Cyclical cash conversion
Persistent volatility in free cash flow and weak cash conversion versus earnings signals structural working‑capital and seasonal collection risks. Uneven FCF constrains sustained debt reduction, buybacks and discretionary investments, increasing sensitivity to late seasonal receipts or inventory build patterns over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & vertical integration
Record 27.5 Mt fertilizer sales demonstrate enduring scale across production, wholesale and retail. That integrated footprint supports margin capture at multiple value-chain points, improves logistics control and strengthens negotiating leverage with suppliers and customers over a multi-quarter horizon.
Read all positive factors
Nutrien (NTR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$51.28B
Dividend Yield3.52%
Average Volume (3M)1.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth2.67%
EPS Growth154.37%
CountryCA
Employees25,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding481,141,330
10 Day Avg. Volume2,399,119
30 Day Avg. Volume1,785,717
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio14.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$110.99Price Target Upside4.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)7.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$37.18B
Nutrien Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through ap...
How the Company Makes Money
Nutrien makes money primarily through two major business segments: (1) upstream fertilizer production and wholesale distribution and (2) downstream retail sales of crop inputs and services. First, in its fertilizer businesses, Nutrien earns revenu...
Nutrien Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicates a predominantly positive operational and financial tone: the company delivered record volumes, double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth (+13%), lower-than-target controllable potash costs ($58/tonne vs $60 goal), meaningful automation progress (49% potash automation), strong capital discipline (CapEx reduced to $2.0B, ~$900M divestiture proceeds, >$600M debt paydown) and increased shareholder returns (+30%). Notable challenges remain—Brazil retail underperformance, Trinidad gas and production uncertainty (assumed offline in 2026), a year-end working capital/inventory build, and near-term phosphate margin pressure—but management has clear plans to address these issues (asset reviews, cost reductions, portfolio simplification). On balance the positive operational execution, strengthened balance sheet, and capital allocation progress outweigh the disclosed lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion in 2025, up 13% year-over-year, driven by operational execution and cost management across segments.
Negative Updates
Brazil Retail Underperformance and Strategic Review
Brazil retail remains below internal hurdle rates: the business moved from a loss in 2024 to near-breakeven in 2025 but continues to face macroeconomic headwinds; management is actively reviewing alternatives for components of the Brazilian business and may restructure or divest assets in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion in 2025, up 13% year-over-year, driven by operational execution and cost management across segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nutrien’s 2026 guidance emphasizes continued volume-led growth and disciplined capital allocation: potash sales volumes guided to 14.1–14.8 Mt (aligned with a global demand view of ~74–77 Mt) with controllable cash cost at or below $60/t (2025 controllable cost $58/t) and mine automation at 49%; nitrogen sales volumes 9.2–9.7 Mt (assumes no Trinidad/New Madrid production; those were ~1.6 Mt or ~15% of 2025 N volumes) after 2025 nitrogen volumes of 10.9 Mt and a 4‑pp improvement in ammonia operating rates; phosphate sales volumes 2.4–2.6 Mt (H2 2025 operating rate ~87%); retail adjusted EBITDA $1.75–$1.95bn (2025 retail adj. EBITDA $1.74bn) with proprietary products gross margin ~ $1.2bn and expected high single‑digit growth, mid‑single‑digit North American crop volumes growth, and continued Brazil actions; company capex $2.0–$2.1bn (sustaining ~$1.65bn, growth ~$400m; 2025 capex $2.0bn vs Investor Day target $2.2–$2.3bn); working capital expected to unwind after a ~ $300m Q4 build to materially improve cash conversion; 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $6.05bn (up 13%), record fertilizer sales of 27.5 Mt, ~$900m gross proceeds from divestitures, >$600m of short‑term debt paydown, a 30% increase in cash returned to shareholders in 2025, Board authorization to repurchase up to 5% of shares (repurchases ~ $50m/month YTD; ~2% repurchased last year), eighth consecutive annual dividend increase (dividend expense ~ $1bn) and capital leases ~ $0.5bn; regional potash benchmarks noted around Brazil $375/t, U.S. winter fill $355/st, SE Asia $375/t, India $349/t and China ~$348/t, with benchmark prices roughly ~20% higher year‑over‑year.Nutrien Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 27.36B | 25.97B | 29.06B | 37.88B | 27.71B |
| Gross Profit | 8.49B | 7.53B | 8.47B | 15.42B | 9.41B |
| EBITDA | 6.37B | 4.21B | 4.88B | 12.78B | 6.58B |
| Net Income | 2.31B | 674.00M | 1.26B | 7.66B | 3.15B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 52.21B | 51.84B | 52.75B | 54.59B | 49.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 699.72M | 853.00M | 941.00M | 901.00M | 499.00M |
| Total Debt | 12.93B | 12.81B | 12.57B | 11.93B | 10.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.89B | 27.40B | 27.55B | 28.72B | 26.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.28B | 24.41B | 25.16B | 25.82B | 23.65B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.04B | 1.38B | 2.47B | 5.67B | 2.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.08B | 3.54B | 5.07B | 8.11B | 3.89B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.40B | -2.13B | -2.96B | -2.90B | -1.81B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.87B | -1.45B | -2.06B | -4.73B | -3.00B |
Nutrien Technical Analysis
Positive
106.59
Price Trends
99.76
Positive
91.47
Positive
85.79
Positive
Market Momentum
1.43
Positive
53.05
Neutral
39.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 106.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.08, above the 50-day MA of 99.76, and above the 200-day MA of 85.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NTR.
Nutrien Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$51.28B | 13.01 | 9.13% | 3.52% | 2.67% | 154.37% | |
70 Outperform | C$722.49M | 3.48 | 30.02% | ― | 20.52% | 1196.33% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | C$16.52M | -13.97 | -21.85% | ― | ― | 39.56% | |
51 Neutral | C$31.19M | -3.66 | -459.98% | ― | 51.04% | -2521.74% | |
41 Neutral | C$57.94M | -4.83 | -40.67% | ― | -36.30% | 10.13% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:NTR
Nutrien
106.59
36.97
53.11%
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Nutrien Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividends
Nutrien Lifts Dividend and Plans New Share Buyback Program
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Nutrien Ltd. has raised its quarterly dividend to US$0.55 per share, a roughly one percent increase that brings its annualized payout to US$2.20, with payments structured in either Canadian or U.S. dollars depending on shareholder residency and el...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Nutrien Boosts Earnings, Cash Returns as Portfolio Streamlining Accelerates
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Nutrien reported full-year 2025 net earnings of $2.30 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion, driven by higher fertilizer selling prices, record upstream sales volumes and stronger retail performance, while fourth-quarter net earnings reache...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.