Ambea AB (AMBEA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr10.31B
• Dividend Yield: 1.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 135.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 10.83%
• EPS Growth: 16.24%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 1.77
• Shares Outstanding: 84,101,290
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 127,005
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 135,589
• PEG Ratio: 1.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr17.11B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: kr123.00 ▼(-11.06% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance—especially strong free cash flow and steady revenue growth—partly offset by meaningful leverage risk. Technicals materially reduce the score due to a pronounced downtrend and weak momentum, while valuation is supportive but only moderately attractive.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Consistently high free cash flow that tracks net income indicates durable earnings quality and strong cash conversion. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports reinvestment in facilities, meeting working capital needs, and gives management options to reduce leverage or fund targeted capital expenditures without needing external financing.

Steady, accelerating revenue

A multi-year upward revenue trajectory with acceleration in the latest year reflects resilient demand from public purchasers and effective contract acquisition. This trend supports capacity utilization, better absorption of fixed costs and provides a stable base for margins and cash flow over the medium term, aiding strategic planning.

Public-sector funded, long-term contracts

A business model reliant on public-sector contracts and long-term municipal relationships creates predictable, structural revenue visibility and lower commercial cyclicality. Framework agreements and tender participation typically yield recurring placement and occupancy revenues, underpinning steady demand and planning visibility for operations and staffing.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio in the ~2.2–2.4 range and rising absolute debt materially reduce financial flexibility. Over months this increases interest expense sensitivity and limits the company's ability to pursue opportunistic investments or absorb operational shocks, making consistent cash generation a critical covenant and liquidity factor.

Debt coverage risk

Operating cash flow covering under half of total debt implies limited immediate deleveraging capacity absent continued strong free cash flow. This structural mismatch raises refinancing and liquidity risk if cash generation weakens, forcing either asset sales, cost cuts, or higher-cost funding over a 2–6 month horizon.

Modest and variable margins

Modest net margins and a recent dip reduce the buffer against cost inflation (notably labor) common in care services. Historical oddities in 2021–22 gross margins add comparability risk, complicating forecasts. Sustaining profitability requires ongoing efficiency gains and stable reimbursement terms from public payers.

Ambea AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ambea AB (publ) provides housing, support, education, and personnel for health and social care for the elderly and people with disabilities in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. The company operates through Nytida, Vardaga, Stendi, Altiden, and Klara segments. The Nytida segment comprises residential facilities, support for individuals and families, schools for children, young people and adults with disabilities or psychosocial problems, and day services. The Vardaga segment offers nursing homes, short-term residential facilities, home care, and day services for elderly people. The Stendi segment provides for children, young people, adults by offering personal assistance, residential care, elderly care, and home care. The Altiden segment comprises operations in elderly care, home care, social care, and disability care. The Klara segment offers subscription services for ambulatory care teams; and a supply of temporary doctors and nurses. Ambea AB (publ) was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Ambea AB generates revenue primarily through government contracts and funding for its care services. The company receives payments from municipal and regional authorities for the provision of healthcare and social services, which form the bulk of its revenue stream. Additionally, Ambea may generate income through private pay clients who choose to utilize its services outside of government funding. The company also benefits from economies of scale by operating multiple care facilities, which allows it to optimize costs and improve service delivery. Significant partnerships with local governments and healthcare organizations enhance its ability to secure contracts and expand its service offerings, further contributing to its earnings.

Ambea AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are supported by steady revenue growth and strong, consistent free cash flow conversion (good earnings quality). The main constraint is elevated and rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.2–2.4), which reduces flexibility and increases sensitivity to any earnings or cash flow volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue shows a steady upward trajectory from 2020 to 2025 (with growth accelerating in 2025), indicating resilient demand. Profitability is solid but not exceptional: operating profitability improved versus the early years, while net margins remain modest for the period and dipped slightly in 2025 versus 2024. Gross margin is generally stable in the mid-to-high teens in 2023–2025, though the 2021–2022 gross margin figures appear unusually high relative to other years, which adds some comparability risk when interpreting the longer trend.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is levered: debt to equity runs around ~2.2–2.4 in recent years and total debt increased into 2025, which reduces flexibility in a higher-rate or slower-growth environment. Offsetting this, equity has grown over time and returns on shareholder capital improved versus earlier years, reaching the low-teens most recently. Overall, the company looks stable but meaningfully debt-reliant, making it more sensitive to earnings or cash flow volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: free cash flow is consistently high and closely tracks net income, suggesting good earnings quality and cash conversion. Free cash flow growth improved notably in 2025 versus 2024, supporting reinvestment and/or balance sheet management. A key watch item is that operating cash flow covers less than half of total debt across the years shown, implying leverage remains material and paydown capacity depends on sustaining current cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.04B	14.20B	13.31B	12.63B	11.48B
Gross Profit	2.81B	2.44B	3.44B	12.19B	11.06B
EBITDA	2.71B	2.61B	2.28B	2.04B	1.61B
Net Income	665.00M	620.00M	455.00M	366.00M	237.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.48B	18.48B	17.89B	17.88B	16.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	133.00M	28.00M	6.00M	259.00M	86.00M
Total Debt	12.64B	11.05B	10.74B	10.96B	9.89B
Total Liabilities	15.28B	13.49B	12.97B	13.19B	12.14B
Stockholders Equity	5.20B	4.99B	4.92B	4.68B	4.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.03B	1.95B	1.62B	1.33B	1.11B
Operating Cash Flow	2.17B	2.07B	1.71B	1.44B	1.21B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.39B	-358.00M	-93.00M	-214.00M	-258.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-672.00M	-1.69B	-1.88B	-1.04B	-882.00M

Ambea AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 138.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:AMBEA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 138.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.80, above the 50-day MA of 133.50, and above the 200-day MA of 125.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:AMBEA.

Ambea AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATT	65 Neutral	kr15.71B	19.13	―	1.47%	2.96%	73.50%
ACAD	64 Neutral	kr9.88B	11.71	12.65%	2.31%	9.02%	29.93%
AMBEA	63 Neutral	kr10.31B	16.36	13.39%	1.56%	10.83%	16.24%
HUM	52 Neutral	kr2.36B	9.65	7.53%	2.01%	2.11%	92.69%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Ambea AB Corporate Events

Ambea boosts growth and dividend as Nordic care expansion accelerates

Care group Ambea reported a strong 2025 with net sales up 13% to SEK 16.0 billion, driven by 4% organic and 10% acquired growth, while maintaining an adjusted EBITA margin of 9.6% and lifting earnings per share by 10%. The board proposed raising the dividend to SEK 2.65 per share as free cash flow improved and cash conversion remained high.

The group accelerated its Nordic expansion through Validia’s acquisition of Attendo’s Finnish child welfare and family care business and an agreement to buy Sauma Lastensuojelupalvelut Oy, alongside Nytida’s purchase of LSS residential operations from Serigmo Invest. Ambea also strengthened its capital structure and shareholder returns with a new SEK 5 billion loan facility and ongoing share buyback programmes, even as integration costs from the Finnish deals temporarily weighed on reported margins.

In the fourth quarter, sales rose 15% to SEK 4.19 billion, but the EBITA margin narrowed due to acquisition integration expenses and mix effects. Nevertheless, operating profit and full-year profitability increased versus 2024, signalling that management is prioritising scale and future growth capacity over short-term margin expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AMBEA) stock is a Buy with a SEK158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambea AB stock, see the SE:AMBEA Stock Forecast page.

Ambea Launches Share Buyback to Optimise Capital Structure

Ambea AB’s board has approved a new share repurchase programme of up to 2,000,000 shares on Nasdaq Stockholm, to be executed by a mandated credit institution ahead of the 2026 annual general meeting. The initiative is designed to optimise the company’s capital structure and enhance shareholder value, while ensuring that total treasury holdings do not exceed 10 per cent of the 84,101,290 shares outstanding.

The buyback may be carried out in regular trading or block transactions, subject to Nasdaq Stockholm’s issuer rulebook and volume limits, and must occur within the prevailing market price band. With Ambea already holding 2,000,000 own shares, the decision underscores management’s confidence in the business and provides additional financial flexibility, which may be viewed positively by investors in the Nordic care services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AMBEA) stock is a Buy with a SEK158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambea AB stock, see the SE:AMBEA Stock Forecast page.

Ambea Sets Date for Publication of 2025 Year-End Report and Investor Call

Ambea has announced that it will publish its year-end report for 2025 on 12 February at 07:00 CET, followed by an English-language webcast and telephone conference at 10:00 CET hosted by CEO Mark Jensen and CFO Benno Eliasson. The scheduled presentation underscores the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with investors and stakeholders, providing detailed financial and operational insights into its performance in the Nordic care market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AMBEA) stock is a Buy with a SEK158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambea AB stock, see the SE:AMBEA Stock Forecast page.

Ambea Expands Finnish Child and Youth Care Through Acquisition of Sauma

Ambea, through its Finnish unit Validia, has agreed to acquire Terveystalo Sauma Lastensuojelupalvelut Oy, a Finnish provider of child protection and family care services. Sauma operates 13 residential care units for children and young people across Finland and offers foster care services, with strong expertise in supporting children and youth with neuropsychiatric needs. The deal, which is subject to regulatory approval, will add about 200 employees and just over EUR 11 million in annual revenue to Ambea, reinforcing its core offering in child and youth care and significantly strengthening its presence in the Finnish market, complementing its already established operations in Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AMBEA) stock is a Hold with a SEK134.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambea AB stock, see the SE:AMBEA Stock Forecast page.

Nytida Expands with Acquisition of Serigmo Invest’s Care Operations

Nytida, a part of the Ambea Group, has signed an agreement to acquire LSS and short-term care operations from Serigmo Invest Holding AB, including Serigmo Care KÅS AB and Villa Arelid AB. This acquisition, set to close on December 1, 2025, is expected to enhance Nytida’s service offerings in Enköping, Alingsås, and Vallentuna, with the acquired companies reporting combined revenues of SEK 45 million in 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AMBEA) stock is a Hold with a SEK134.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambea AB stock, see the SE:AMBEA Stock Forecast page.