RXO, Inc. (RXO) Risk Analysis

Our business could be adversely affected by strikes and labor negotiations at seaports, labor disputes between railroads and their union employees, or by a work stoppage at one or more railroads or local trucking companies servicing rail or port terminals, including work disruptions involving owner-operators under contract with our local trucking operations. Port shutdowns and similar disruptions to major points in national or international transportation networks could result in terminal embargoes, disrupt equipment and freight flows, depress volumes and revenues, increase costs and have other negative effects on our operations and financial results. Labor disputes involving our customers could affect our operations. If our customers experience plant slowdowns or closures because they are unable to negotiate labor contracts, our revenue and profitability could be negatively impacted. We are subject to one collective bargaining agreement that covers fewer than 20 of our employees. We have not experienced any work stoppages due to strikes by unionized workers, but we cannot make assurances that there will not be any work stoppages due to strikes or other job actions in the future. Labor unions may continue to attempt to organize our employees. Further successful unionization by our employees or organizing efforts could lead to business interruptions, work stoppages and the reduction of service levels due to work rules that could have an adverse effect on our customer relationships and our revenues, earnings, financial position and outlook.

Federal and state legislation as well as tax and other regulatory authorities have sought to assert that independent contractors in the transportation service industry are employees rather than independent contractors. There can be no assurance that interpretations supporting independent contractor status will not change, that other federal or state legislation will not be enacted or that various authorities will not successfully assert a position that re-classifies independent contractors to be employees. If the third-party carriers with which we contract for the performance of delivery services, or their delivery workers, are determined to be our employees, that determination could materially increase our exposure under a variety of federal and state tax, workers' compensation, unemployment benefits, labor, employment and tort laws, as well as our potential liability for employee benefits and tax withholdings. Any of the above increased costs would adversely affect our business and operating results. In addition, we are involved in several class action and collective action lawsuits claiming that the third-party carriers with which we contract, or their delivery workers, should be treated as our employees, rather than independent contractors. These lawsuits may seek substantial monetary damages (including claims for unpaid wages, overtime, unreimbursed business expenses, deductions from wages and other items), injunctive relief, or both. While we believe that our third-party carriers are properly classified as independent contractors rather than as employees, and that their delivery workers are not employees of the Company, adverse final outcomes in these matters could result in changes to their independent contractor status and could, among other things, entitle certain claimants to reimbursement of certain expenses and to the benefit of wage-and-hour laws, and result in employment and withholding taxes, back wages and benefit liability for us. These claims involve potentially significant classes that could involve thousands of claimants and, accordingly, significant potential damages and litigation costs, and could lead others to bring similar claims. Adverse final outcomes in these matters or changes to state or federal laws could cause us to change our business model, which could have a material adverse effect on our business strategies, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. The results of these matters cannot be predicted with certainty and an unfavorable resolution of one or more of these matters could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.

Establishing new customer relationships or adding operational sites for existing customers requires a significant amount of time, operational focus and capital. Although we typically partner with our new customers to ensure that onboarding is smooth and allocate costs appropriately, our inability to integrate new customers or operational sites into our technology systems or recruit additional employees to manage new customer relationships, or higher than anticipated costs to onboard new customers, may negatively affect our financial condition or operations.

We may be subject to cybersecurity attacks and other intentional hacking. Any failure to identify and address such defects or errors or prevent a cyber-attack could result in service interruptions, operational difficulties, loss of revenues or market share, liability to our customers or others, the diversion of corporate resources, injury to our reputation or increased service and maintenance costs. Addressing such issues could prove to be impossible or very costly and responding to the resulting claims or liability could similarly involve substantial cost. Also, due to recent advances in technology and well-known efforts on the part of computer hackers and cyber-criminals to breach data security of companies, we face risks associated with potential failure to adequately protect critical corporate, customer and employee data, which, if released, could adversely impact our customer relationships, our reputation, and even violate privacy laws. Recently, regulatory and enforcement focus on data protection has heightened in the United States. Failure to comply with applicable data protection regulations or other data protection standards may expose us to litigation, fines, sanctions or other penalties, which could harm our business, our reputation, results of operations and financial condition.

If we fail to successfully integrate AI into our platform and business processes, or if we fail to keep pace with rapidly evolving AI technological developments, including attracting and retaining talented AI developers and programmers and cybersecurity personnel, we may face a competitive disadvantage. At the same time, the use or offering of AI technologies may result in new or expanded risks and liabilities, including enhanced government or regulatory scrutiny, litigation, privacy and compliance issues, ethical concerns, confidentiality, reputational harm, and security risks. It is not possible to predict all of the risks related to the use of AI and changes in laws, rules, directives, and regulations governing the use of AI that may adversely affect our ability to develop and use AI or subject us to legal liability. The cost of complying with laws and regulations governing AI could be significant and would increase our operating expenses, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Further, market demand and acceptance of AI technologies are uncertain, and we may be unsuccessful in efforts to further incorporate AI into our processes.

The nature of our business exposes us to the potential for various types of claims and litigation. We are subject to claims and litigation related to independent contractor classification, labor and employment, personal injury, vehicular accidents, cargo and other property damage, commercial disputes, environmental liability and other matters, including with respect to claims asserted under various other theories of agency or employer liability. Claims against us may exceed the amount of insurance coverage that we have or may not be covered by insurance at all. Businesses that we acquire also increase our exposure to litigation. Material increases in liability claims or workers' compensation claims, or the unfavorable resolution of claims, or our failure to recover, in full or in part, under indemnity provisions could materially and adversely affect our operating results. In addition, significant increases in insurance costs or the inability to purchase insurance as a result of these claims could reduce our profitability.

Our top five customers comprised approximately 23% of our consolidated total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. Our largest customer comprised approximately 11.4% of our consolidated total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The sudden loss of one or more major customers could materially and adversely affect our operating results.

The transportation industry in North America historically has experienced cyclical fluctuations in financial results due to economic recessions, downturns in the business cycles of our customers, increases in the prices charged by third-party carriers, interest rate fluctuations, prolonged periods of inflation, political instability, pandemics, geopolitical conflict and war, changes in international trade policies and other U.S. and global economic factors beyond our control. During economic downturns, a reduction in overall demand for transportation services will likely reduce demand for our services and exert downward pressures on our rates and margins. The pricing environment also generally becomes more competitive during economic downturns, which may, as it has in the past, affect our ability to obtain price increases from customers both during and following such periods, especially during periods of increased economic inflation. In addition, in periods of strong economic growth, overall demand may exceed the available supply of transportation resources, resulting in increased network congestion and operating inefficiencies. Changes in international trade policies could significantly reduce the volume of goods transported globally and adversely affect our business and results of operations. These factors subject our business to various risks that may have a material impact on our operating results and future prospects. These risks may include the following: - A reduction in overall freight volume reduces our opportunities for growth. In addition, if a downturn in our customers' business causes a reduction in the volume of freight shipped by those customers, our operating results could be adversely affected;- Some of our customers may experience financial distress, file for bankruptcy protection, go out of business, or suffer disruptions in their business and may be unable to pay us. In addition, some customers may not pay us as quickly as they have in the past, causing our working capital needs to increase;- A significant number of our carriers may go out of business or may be unable to secure sufficient equipment capacity or services to enable us to meet our commitments to our customers;- We may not be able to adjust appropriately our expenses to rapid changes in market demand. In order to maintain high variability in our business model, it is necessary to adjust staffing levels when market demand changes. In periods of rapid change, it is more difficult to match our staffing levels to our business needs. In addition, we have other expenses that are primarily variable but are fixed for a period of time, as well as certain significant fixed expenses;- Prolonged, escalated or expanded current and future international conflicts, and potential sanctions imposed in response to these conflicts, may adversely impact global supply chain activities and the economy at large; and - The U.S. government has made significant changes in U.S. trade policy and has taken certain actions that have negatively impacted U.S. trade, including imposing tariffs on certain goods imported into the United States. To date, several governments, including the European Union and China have imposed tariffs on certain goods imported from the United States. These actions may contribute to weakness in the global economy that could adversely affect our results of operations. Any further changes in U.S. or international trade policy could trigger additional retaliatory actions by affected countries, resulting in "trade wars" and further increased costs for goods transported globally, which may reduce customer demand for these products if the parties having to pay those tariffs increase their prices, or in trading partners limiting their trade with countries that impose anti-trade measures. Any of these factors could have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations or financial condition, as well as on the price of our common stock.