Royal Gold (RGLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.82B
• Dividend Yield: 0.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 622.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 18.77%
• EPS Growth: 38.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 1.63
• Shares Outstanding: 65,806,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 868,315
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 622,663
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 14.35
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 18.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $182.43
• Price Target Upside: -1.34% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

Royal Gold demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth and a debt-free balance sheet. Positive technical indicators and strategic executive agreements further bolster confidence. While the P/E ratio suggests a premium valuation, the company's consistent dividend increases and positive earnings call sentiment support a favorable outlook. Overall, Royal Gold is well-positioned within the mining industry, with strengths outweighing minor risks.

Positive Factors

Asset Ramp-up

Royal Gold is viewed as a quality gold streaming and royalty company that should see strong free cash flow as it benefits from the ramp-up of assets like Pueblo Viejo, Goldrush, and Khoemacau.

Earnings

Q4’24 earnings beat expectations driven by higher revenues, especially from the royalty segment.

Financial Performance

Net cash and liquidity improved significantly, with outstanding debt cleared during the quarter.

Negative Factors

Growth Outlook

Royal Gold does have the lowest forward-looking growth in the coverage, with a modest current growth outlook compared to peers.

Production Delays

Royal Gold released 2025 guidance this morning coming in weaker than expected, citing delays from lower production at Mt. Milligan impacting 2025 and a continued slow ramp-up at Pueblo Viejo.

Sales Guidance

The 2025 gold sales guidance was lower than expected, with a range of 210-230koz falling short of the 244koz estimate.

Royal Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests. It focuses on acquiring stream and royalty interests or to finance projects that are in production or in development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests, which primarily consists of gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and cobalt. As of June 30, 2022, the Company owned interests in 185 properties on five continents, including interests on 41 producing mines and 19 development stage projects. Its stream and royalty interests on properties are located in the United States, Canada, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Australia, Africa, Mexico, and internationally. Royal Gold, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Royal Gold generates revenue through its streaming and royalty agreements with mining companies. Under these agreements, Royal Gold provides capital to mining companies for the development of mining projects in exchange for a percentage of the mine's future production at a fixed, below-market price, or a percentage of revenue. The company earns income primarily from the sale of the metals it receives through these agreements at market prices, which can be significantly higher than the fixed costs. Additionally, Royal Gold benefits from increases in metal prices and production levels at the mines in which it holds interests. Key revenue streams for the company include royalties, which are calculated as a percentage of revenue from the mine, and streams, which involve purchasing a portion of the mine's production at a discounted rate. The company also seeks to diversify its portfolio by entering into agreements with multiple mining operators across different geographic locations and maintaining a focus on high-quality, long-life assets. Significant partnerships with established mining companies and a disciplined approach to investment further contribute to Royal Gold's earnings and growth potential.

Royal Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Royal Gold exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth. The company maintains a debt-free balance sheet, enhancing its financial stability. Strong cash flow generation supports ongoing operations and potential future investments, positioning the company well within the mining industry.

Income Statement

Royal Gold has demonstrated strong growth in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin increased, indicating improved operational efficiency. Revenue grew significantly by 18.77% from 2023 to 2024, showcasing robust growth in a competitive mining sector. Net profit margin also improved, suggesting effective cost management and operational strategies. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, reflecting efficient earnings generation.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with zero debt as of 2024, which is a positive indicator of financial health and low leverage risk. The company's equity ratio is high, indicating a solid capital structure. Return on equity showed an impressive increase to 10.64%, highlighting effective use of equity to generate profits. The absence of debt reduces financial risk, enhancing stability.

Cash Flow

Royal Gold's cash flow statement reveals a positive trajectory in free cash flow, which grew by 3.35% from 2023 to 2024, indicating improved cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, signifying efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains stable, suggesting consistent cash flow management despite fluctuations in capital expenditures.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Jun 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
719.39M	605.72M	603.21M	645.17M	615.86M
	Gross Profit
470.83M	342.96M	322.61M	546.70M	332.65M
	EBIT
429.90M	303.20M	283.71M	328.39M	337.60M
	EBITDA
576.82M	468.14M	474.76M	517.40M	489.71M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
332.02M	239.44M	238.98M	274.04M	302.53M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
195.50M	104.17M	118.59M	143.55M	225.92M
	Total Assets
3.39B	3.36B	3.53B	2.76B	2.65B
	Total Debt
0.00	251.61M	571.57M	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-195.50M	147.44M	452.99M	-143.55M	-225.92M
	Total Liabilities
260.92M	460.42M	781.05M	155.82M	148.19M
	Stockholders Equity
3.12B	2.89B	2.74B	2.59B	2.49B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
426.94M	413.11M	-504.81M	61.49M	239.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
529.50M	415.79M	417.35M	461.87M	407.15M
	Investing Cash Flow
-77.68M	-2.83M	-922.88M	-416.97M	-116.74M
	Financing Cash Flow
-360.49M	-427.38M	480.57M	-283.21M	-383.63M

Royal Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 184.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 184.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.69, above the 50-day MA of 156.63, and above the 200-day MA of 143.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.11 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RGLD.

Royal Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AU	82 Outperform	$21.78B	18.53	19.42%	2.10%	26.43%	―
RGLD	78 Outperform	$11.82B	35.58	11.05%	0.88%	18.77%	38.55%
BVN	77 Outperform	$3.68B	9.02	12.62%	0.49%	39.13%	1927.49%
GFI	77 Outperform	$21.51B	17.24	25.35%	1.85%	13.41%	73.34%
HMY	76 Outperform	$11.37B	19.25	25.19%	0.60%	20.35%	20.44%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$1.92B	-1.99	-22.85%	3.95%	0.94%	-27.31%
SBSW	47 Neutral	$3.42B	―	-15.89%	―	-0.71%	80.26%

Royal Gold Corporate Events

Royal Gold Announces New Executive Agreements for Stability

On March 17, 2025, Royal Gold, Inc. announced new employment and restrictive covenants agreements with key executives, including the President and CEO, CFO, and Senior Vice Presidents. These agreements, replacing previous ones, outline salary structures, participation in incentive programs, and severance terms, while also imposing non-compete clauses for 12 months post-employment. The move is aimed at ensuring leadership stability and aligning executive incentives with company performance, potentially impacting the company’s operational continuity and stakeholder confidence.

Royal Gold Releases 2025 Financial Guidance Overview

On March 13, 2025, Royal Gold, Inc. announced its guidance for the 2025 calendar year, detailing expected sales volumes for gold, silver, copper, and other metals, as well as projections for depletion, depreciation, and amortization expenses, and effective tax rates. The company anticipates that gold, silver, and copper will provide the majority of its revenue, with sales volumes expected to be split between the first and second halves of the year. Key assumptions include a lag in gold deliveries from Mount Milligan, ongoing ramp-up at the Pueblo Viejo mine, and increased production at Andacollo due to improved water availability. The guidance reflects adjustments based on management’s experience and forecasts from operating partners, with no new acquisitions factored into the projections.

Kevin McArthur Resigns from Royal Gold Board

Kevin McArthur has announced his resignation from Royal Gold, Inc.’s Board of Directors, effective at the conclusion of the company’s annual stockholders meeting on May 22, 2025, as he prepares to take on the role of chairman of the board at First Quantum Minerals Ltd on May 8, 2025. Royal Gold’s Board of Directors will start a search to find a replacement for McArthur, highlighting the company’s focus on maintaining strong leadership amid this transition.