Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.60B
• Dividend Yield: 0.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 29.08%
• EPS Growth: 72.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,715
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 636,798,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,583,381
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,093,454
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 17.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.29
• 1Y Price Target: $24.00
• Price Target Upside: 80.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.18B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(8.86% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, low leverage, and solid cash generation). This is tempered by weak technicals (price below major moving averages and negative MACD with heavy downside momentum). Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, and the earnings call was broadly positive on cash flow and balance sheet strength but flagged cost and safety pressures.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Harmony's very low leverage and strong equity base provide durable financial flexibility. High ROE shows efficient capital use. This conservatism lowers refinancing and solvency risk, supports dividends and project funding, and cushions the business through commodity and currency cycles over years.

Operational reliability

Consistently meeting guidance for a decade demonstrates repeatable mine planning and execution. Reliable production underpins predictable revenue and cash flow, aiding multi-year capital allocation, sustaining investment in mines, and reducing execution risk for medium-term growth plans.

Strategic diversification into copper

Advancing MAC Copper, CSA maiden production and Eva Copper creates a dual gold-copper footprint. Structural diversification reduces single-commodity exposure, opens new revenue streams, and leverages mining capabilities to support multi-year growth and resilience against gold-price volatility.

Negative Factors

Rising unit costs

A significant rise in all-in sustaining costs signals structural margin pressure from inflation, lower volumes and higher royalties. If elevated, these costs erode free cash flow per ounce and reduce the buffer against weaker metal prices, constraining reinvestment and shareholder returns over the medium term.

Safety and operational risk

A recent fatality and prior H2 safety lapses highlight persistent operational and reputational risk. Beyond human cost, safety incidents can trigger regulatory scrutiny, operational stoppages, higher compliance expenses and lower workforce morale, all of which can depress production reliability over multiple years.

Execution risk at key asset

A projected multi-year gap at a major mine and contractor shortages create medium-term supply risk. Loss of high-grade tonnes raises unit costs and may force capital reallocation or slower growth, undermining near-term production plans and the expected contribution from current project pipelines.

Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold. It also explores for uranium, silver, copper, and molybdenum deposits. The company has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; an open-pit mine on the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface treatment operations in South Africa. It also owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and Wafi-Golpu, a project in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Randfontein, South Africa.

How the Company Makes Money

Harmony primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is driven by (1) the volume of gold produced and sold (production levels from its mining operations), and (2) the realized gold price, which is influenced by global spot and contract pricing as well as currency movements (notably the South African rand versus the U.S. dollar). The core revenue stream is proceeds from gold sales to refiners/metal marketers after processing ore into doré/metal suitable for sale; cash flow is largely determined by operating costs (labor, power, consumables), sustaining and growth capital expenditure, ore grades, recovery rates, and mine performance. The company can also earn ancillary revenue from by-products produced alongside gold in certain operations (if and when such by-product production occurs) and may benefit from hedging/financial arrangements that affect realized pricing and revenue timing; specific partnership terms, customer contracts, or hedging details are null.

Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and growth: revenue up 10.37% with healthy margins (gross 39.65%, net 19.47%). Balance sheet is conservatively leveraged (debt-to-equity 0.046) with high ROE (29.82%), and cash generation is solid (operating cash flow to net income 1.83; free cash flow growth 13.55%).

Income Statement

Harmony Gold Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.37% increase in the latest year, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 39.65% and 19.47% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 28.99% and 35.54%, indicating efficient operational management. The company has shown consistent improvement over the years, reflecting a positive growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.046, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is impressive at 29.82%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 62.23%, suggesting a strong equity base. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with minimal risk from debt.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 13.55% and a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.83. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.48 indicates good cash conversion. The company has consistently improved its cash flow generation, supporting its operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	83.32B	73.90B	61.38B	49.27B	42.65B	41.73B
Gross Profit	35.25B	29.30B	14.15B	9.74B	718.00M	6.08B
EBITDA	36.13B	26.27B	16.52B	11.05B	3.34B	10.92B
Net Income	15.81B	14.38B	8.59B	4.82B	-1.05B	5.09B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	114.52B	77.50B	60.46B	57.24B	46.81B	49.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.67B	13.10B	4.73B	2.87B	2.45B	2.82B
Total Debt	12.88B	2.23B	2.29B	6.22B	3.65B	3.36B
Total Liabilities	62.36B	28.99B	19.51B	22.36B	16.69B	17.82B
Stockholders Equity	51.83B	48.23B	40.77B	34.76B	30.04B	31.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.87B	10.79B	7.25B	2.31B	710.00M	4.04B
Operating Cash Flow	25.66B	22.65B	15.65B	9.95B	6.92B	9.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-32.18B	-11.96B	-8.37B	-10.60B	-6.20B	-8.46B
Financing Cash Flow	4.89B	-2.21B	-5.43B	1.19B	-1.15B	-4.30B

Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.57, below the 50-day MA of 20.47, and below the 200-day MA of 17.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.15 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HMY.

Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDE	76 Outperform	$11.35B	19.33	19.56%	―	72.94%	―
DRD	73 Outperform	$2.24B	0.61	32.58%	1.02%	30.05%	73.40%
HMY	71 Outperform	$8.60B	5.53	32.51%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
RGLD	68 Neutral	$18.25B	33.10	10.92%	0.77%	28.11%	66.85%
HL	66 Neutral	$11.56B	38.89	13.65%	0.07%	45.61%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SBSW	49 Neutral	$7.82B	-34.86	-12.94%	―	6.27%	93.14%

Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events

Harmony Gold Doubles Interim Dividend as Copper Expansion Lifts H1FY26 Earnings

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, a South African-based gold producer listed in Johannesburg and New York, is steadily evolving into a dual gold-and-copper miner, with gold remaining core while copper becomes an increasingly important growth vector. Its portfolio now includes the CSA copper mine in production and the Eva Copper project under construction, backed by a capital allocation framework focused on safe, predictable output, disciplined investment, and resilient cash returns.

Reporting interim results for the six months to 31 December 2025 on 11 March 2026, Harmony posted a 61% jump in operating profit to R16.1 billion and 20% higher revenue, driven largely by a 36% increase in the average gold price received despite a 9% drop in group gold output and higher all-in sustaining costs. The company doubled its interim dividend under a revised policy returning up to half of net free cash to shareholders, while keeping net debt low at 0.18-times EBITDA and liquidity near R14.8 billion, and advanced its copper growth strategy with maiden CSA production and the board’s November 2025 go-ahead for the Eva Copper project, setting a trajectory toward about 100,000 tonnes of annual copper output within three years.

Safety performance continued to improve with the lowest-ever lost-time injury frequency rate of 4.23 per million hours in H1FY26 and a loss-of-life-free first quarter, although one fatality occurred at Mponeng on 26 October 2025, underscoring the company’s ongoing push toward zero harm. Harmony also reported progress on sustainability, moving ahead with a 100 MW solar plant at Moab Khotsong due to start phased commissioning in April 2026 and earning improved external scores for water security and climate-change management, reinforcing its positioning as a responsible steward while it scales gold and copper production.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Doubles Interim Dividend as Higher Gold Price Fuels Earnings and Copper Growth

Harmony Gold Mining reported interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2025 on 11 March 2026, showing it remains on track to meet full-year production, grade and cost guidance despite a 9% drop in group gold output and an 11% decline in underground recovered grade. The company benefited from a significantly higher gold price, which lifted group revenue 20% to R44.4 billion, operating profit 61% to R16.1 billion, and basic earnings per share 24%, while maintaining a robust balance sheet with net debt to EBITDA at 0.18 times and liquidity of R14.8 billion.

Harmony doubled its interim dividend to 530 SA cents per share and adopted a more generous dividend policy of paying out up to 50% of net free cash, resulting in a record R3.38 billion interim payout to shareholders. Strategically, Harmony advanced its copper growth platform with maiden production from the newly acquired CSA mine and board approval of the Eva Copper project, while continuing to improve safety performance with its lowest-ever lost time injury frequency rate, reinforcing its shift toward a diversified gold and copper profile and more shareholder-friendly capital returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold flags double-digit profit surge on higher gold price and MAC Copper deal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, a South African-based gold producer with growing copper exposure, reported that its underlying fundamentals remained strong across its portfolio during the six months ended 31 December 2025. The company continues to emphasise disciplined capital allocation, selective and affordable growth, and “Mining with Purpose” to translate elevated metal prices into long-term value and responsible shareholder returns.

On 9 March 2026, Harmony issued a trading statement indicating that basic and headline earnings for the first half of FY26 will be materially higher than a year earlier, driven chiefly by a 36% jump in the rand gold price received and related reversal of impairments at the Tshepong North unit. Earnings gains were partly offset by higher production, tax, depreciation, finance and derivative costs linked to rising input prices and the MAC Copper acquisition, but EPS is still expected to rise 21%–30% and HEPS 11%–17%, underscoring stronger profitability ahead of the interim results release due on 11 March 2026.

The company highlighted additional upside from favourable foreign-exchange translation on its U.S. dollar bridge facility, even as copper and silver streaming arrangements and acquisition costs weighed on results. For shareholders, the guidance signals that Harmony is successfully converting higher commodity prices and recent portfolio additions into improved earnings, albeit with increased cost complexity and financial leverage that will remain key monitoring points as the MAC Copper integration progresses.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Confirms FY26 Guidance and Cash-Flow Strength Despite H1 Operational Disruptions

On 3 February 2026, Harmony Gold Mining said it expects solid financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, as elevated gold prices and strong free cash flow offset temporary operational setbacks including a mill motor failure and deferred gold shipment at Hidden Valley, as well as lower metallurgical recoveries linked to an industry-wide cyanide shortage in South Africa. Despite these headwinds, the company reiterated its full-year 2026 production guidance of 1.4–1.5 million ounces of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost of R1,150,000–R1,220,000 per kilogram and an underground recovered grade above 5.8g/t, while reporting good progress on integrating the high-grade CSA copper mine and advancing the Eva Copper Project, reviewing its capital structure to support long-term growth, and preparing to publish fully integrated interim results on 11 March 2026 alongside active engagement with investors at the upcoming Investing in African Mining Indaba.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Accident at Moab Khotsong Mine

On 20 January 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company reported that an employee at its Moab Khotsong mine near Orkney in South Africa died in a locomotive-related incident. The company stated that the employee’s family has been informed and that an investigation, led by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, is under way to establish the circumstances surrounding the fatal accident. Chief executive officer Beyers Nel expressed condolences to the worker’s family, friends and colleagues and reiterated Harmony’s commitment to safety and its goal of zero loss of life, underscoring the ongoing operational and reputational importance of safety performance for the miner and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.