Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) AI Stock Analysis

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Puma Biotechnology

(NASDAQ:PBYI)

60Neutral

Puma Biotechnology's stock score reflects a moderate outlook. Financial improvements and a low P/E ratio are positive, but technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. Challenges with revenue growth and declining royalties emphasize the need for strategic adjustments to sustain long-term growth.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Nerlynx net sales beat guidance and our estimate in 4Q24.

Market Expansion

The inclusion of Nerlynx in the updated NCCN Guidelines for Cervical Cancer as a treatment option signifies a potential increase in demand for the drug.

Negative Factors

Demand Decline

Nerlynx demand/volumes continue to decline, management has largely been able to counteract this with price increases.

Prescription Trends

New prescriptions in 4Q24 decreased approximately 7% QoQ.

Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$144.37M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)472.24K

Price to Earnings (P/E)4.8

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth-2.19%

EPS Growth34.91%

CountryUS

Employees172

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength74

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.61

Shares Outstanding49,610,798

10 Day Avg. Volume311,182

30 Day Avg. Volume472,235

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.14

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.76

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)2.80

P/FCF Ratio2.80

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.33

Price Target Upside48.80% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering3

Puma Biotechnology Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPuma Biotechnology, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative products to enhance cancer care. Primarily operating in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, the company is dedicated to discovering and advancing novel therapeutics for the treatment of various cancer types. Its core product, NERLYNX (neratinib), is a leading oral medication designed to treat HER2-positive breast cancer and has been approved by the FDA for commercial use.

How the Company Makes MoneyPuma Biotechnology generates revenue primarily through the sales of its flagship product, NERLYNX. The company earns money by selling this prescription drug to wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors, who then supply it to healthcare providers and patients. Additionally, Puma may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing agreements or partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies interested in marketing NERLYNX in regions outside the United States. These collaborations can significantly contribute to the company's earnings by expanding its market reach and leveraging the distribution and marketing capabilities of its partners.

Puma Biotechnology Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Puma Biotechnology demonstrates financial improvement with positive net income and enhanced cash flow management. However, revenue growth remains inconsistent, and leverage poses a risk.

Income Statement

Positive

Puma Biotechnology's income statement shows moderate performance with a consistent gross profit margin of around 72% over the years. However, the revenue has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline from 2023 to 2024. Net income has improved significantly, transitioning from negative figures in previous years to a positive $30.28 million in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating better operational efficiency, but the overall revenue growth remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects improvement in stockholders' equity, rising to $92.13 million in 2024 from negative figures in previous years. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved due to increased equity, although it still indicates a leveraged position. The equity ratio has stabilized, reflecting better asset management, but the high total liabilities continue to pose a risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows strong growth in free cash flow, which increased significantly in 2024. Operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient cash management, and free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable. The company has managed capital expenditures well, contributing to improved free cash flow, though past fluctuations in cash flow need monitoring.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
230.47M	235.64M	228.00M	253.20M	225.10M
	Gross Profit
166.06M	172.96M	172.90M	189.50M	185.70M
	EBIT
30.97M	32.64M	23.70M	-8.90M	-30.40M
	EBITDA
48.08M	47.52M	20.97M	-5.40M	-38.54M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
30.28M	21.59M	912.00K	-29.10M	-60.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
100.97M	95.94M	76.20M	63.10M	85.30M
	Total Assets
213.33M	230.53M	222.06M	226.59M	244.22M
	Total Debt
52.36M	111.49M	114.28M	116.64M	120.95M
	Net Debt
-16.86M	26.91M	38.08M	53.54M	35.65M
	Total Liabilities
121.21M	177.09M	200.45M	229.03M	250.17M
	Stockholders Equity
92.13M	53.44M	21.60M	-2.40M	-6.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
38.86M	14.37M	-22.80M	20.70M	-19.25M
	Operating Cash Flow
38.92M	27.01M	-15.80M	20.70M	800.00K
	Investing Cash Flow
-20.44M	-19.13M	7.10M	-10.90M	23.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-33.85M	0.00	12.20M	-31.90M	100.00K

Puma Biotechnology Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.91

Price Trends

50DMA

3.10

Negative

100DMA

3.07

Negative

200DMA

3.02

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.03

Positive

RSI

38.51

Neutral

STOCH

8.96

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBYI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.16, below the 50-day MA of 3.10, and below the 200-day MA of 3.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PBYI.

Puma Biotechnology Risk Analysis

Puma Biotechnology disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Puma Biotechnology reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Puma Biotechnology Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (48)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXEL	79 Outperform	$9.75B	19.26	23.13%	―	18.49%	176.71%
INCY	66 Neutral	$11.67B	210.07	0.76%	―	14.76%	-88.32%
PBYI	60 Neutral	$144.37M	4.77	41.60%	―	-2.19%	34.91%
ALNY	50 Neutral	$30.30B	―	-414.62%	―	22.97%	38.54%
ARRY	49 Neutral	$688.62M	―	-53.46%	―	-41.91%	-459.51%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.36B	1.24	-44.94%	2.70%	18.33%	1.47%
BLUE	36 Underperform	$46.70M	―	-295.35%	―	184.12%	31.92%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PBYI

Puma Biotechnology

2.91

-2.61

-47.28%

ALNY

Alnylam Pharma

243.27

90.86

59.62%

EXEL

Exelixis

35.34

11.66

49.24%

INCY

Incyte

58.86

3.86

7.02%

BLUE

Bluebird Bio

4.85

-18.95

-79.62%

ARRY

Array Technologies

4.53

-9.75

-68.28%

Puma Biotechnology Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -2.68% | Next Earnings Date: May 1, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive advancements in clinical trials and regulatory approvals, as well as ongoing challenges with revenue and prescription declines. While the company continues to maintain a positive net income, the drop in royalty revenue and NERLYNX net product revenue raises concerns.

Highlights

Increased NERLYNX Bottle Sales

NERLYNX ex-factory bottle sales in Q4 2024 were 2,964, representing an approximate 9% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 3% increase year-over-year.

New Regulatory Approvals

NERLYNX received regulatory approval in Turkey for the extended adjuvant setting and in Thailand for both extended adjuvant and metastatic breast cancer.

Positive Net Income

Net income for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $19.3 million, or $0.39 per share, with an expectation of positive net income for the full year 2025 in the range of $23 million to $28 million.

Revenue Growth in Specialty Distributor Channel

The addition of BioCare to the SD distribution network supports a significant portion of business driven by community oncologists.

Ongoing Clinical Trials Progress

Phase 1 trial for neratinib and trastuzumab deruxtecan, and two Phase 2 trials for alisertib in breast and lung cancer are progressing, with interim data expected in 2025.

Lowlights

Decline in NERLYNX Net Product Revenue

NERLYNX net revenue in Q4 2024 was $54.4 million, a decline of $1.7 million from Q3 2024.

Significant Drop in Royalty Revenue

Royalty revenue in Q4 2024 was $4.7 million compared to $24.4 million in Q3 2024, largely due to reduced sales to China by licensing partner Pierre Fabre.

Challenges with Inventory and Prescriptions

New prescriptions (NRx) decreased 7% quarter-over-quarter, and enrollments declined 7% quarter-over-quarter and about 10% year-over-year.

Company Guidance

During the fourth quarter of 2024, Puma Biotechnology reported total revenue of $59.1 million, with product revenue net from NERLYNX sales at $54.4 million, a slight decline from $56.1 million in Q3 2024 but an increase from $53.2 million in Q4 2023. The product revenue was influenced by a $3.7 million inventory increase at specialty pharmacies and distributors. Royalty revenue was $4.7 million, a decrease from $24.4 million in Q3 2024 and $19.0 million in Q4 2023, due to lower sales to China. NERLYNX's ex-factory bottle sales reached 2,964 in Q4 2024, up 9% from Q3 2024. New prescriptions (NRx) declined by 7% from the previous quarter, while total prescriptions (TRx) increased by 4%. For fiscal year 2025, Puma anticipates NERLYNX product revenue net in the range of $192 million to $198 million, with a gross to net adjustment between 20.5% and 21.5%. The company also expects royalties between $20 million and $24 million and projects net income for the year between $23 million and $28 million.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.