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Incyte Corp (INCY)
NASDAQ:INCY
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Incyte
(NASDAQ:INCY)
66Neutral
Positive Factors
Clinical Trial Results
Povorcitinib demonstrated a statistically significant difference in HiSCR50 against placebo in both trials, indicating its efficacy in treating moderate/severe hidradenitis suppurativa.
Market Positioning
Povorcitinib could become the first oral selective JAK1 inhibitor approved in hidradenitis suppurativa, offering a new treatment option in the post-biologic setting.
Negative Factors
Competitive Landscape
The data from the Phase 3 trials are inferior to scores for other approved and pipeline competitors.
Financial Projections
The reduction of pipeline estimates and the lowering of the TGR drive the reduction of the price target from $69 to $65.
Incyte (INCY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)217.0
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth14.76%
EPS Growth-88.32%
CountryUS
Employees2,617
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength74
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding193,524,350
10 Day Avg. Volume2,377,663
30 Day Avg. Volume2,234,155
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.83
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)7.90
P/FCF Ratio8.20
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.21Price Target Upside34.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
Incyte Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIncyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of proprietary therapeutics in the United States and internationally. The company offers JAKAFI, a drug for the treatment of myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera; PEMAZYRE, a fibroblast growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor that act as oncogenic drivers in various liquid and solid tumor types; and ICLUSIG, a kinase inhibitor to treat chronic myeloid leukemia and philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Its clinical stage products include ruxolitinib, a steroid-refractory chronic graft-versus-host-diseases (GVHD); itacitinib, which is in Phase II/III clinical trial to treat naive chronic GVHD; and pemigatinib for treating bladder cancer, cholangiocarcinoma, myeloproliferative syndrome, and tumor agnostic. In addition, the company engages in developing Parsaclisib, which is in Phase II clinical trial for follicular lymphoma, marginal zone lymphoma, and mantel cell lymphoma. Additionally, it develops Retifanlimab that is in Phase II clinical trials for MSI-high endometrial cancer, merkel cell carcinoma, and anal cancer, as well as in Phase II clinical trials for patients with non-small cell lung cancer. It has collaboration agreements with Novartis International Pharmaceutical Ltd.; Eli Lilly and Company; Agenus Inc.; Calithera Biosciences, Inc; MacroGenics, Inc.; Merus N.V.; Syros Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Innovent Biologics, Inc.; Zai Lab Limited; Cellenkos, Inc.; and Nimble Therapeutics, as well as clinical collaborations with MorphoSys AG and Xencor, Inc. to investigate the combination of tafasitamab, plamotamab, and lenalidomide in patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.
How the Company Makes MoneyIncyte makes money primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, with a significant portion of its revenue generated from its flagship drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), which is used for treating myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera. The company also earns revenue from licensing agreements and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, where it receives milestone payments and royalties. Additionally, Incyte invests in research and development to expand its product pipeline, ensuring a continuous flow of new and innovative treatments to sustain its growth and profitability.
Incyte Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Incyte demonstrates strong revenue growth and maintains a robust balance sheet with minimal debt. However, the decline in margins and net income, along with reduced cash flow generation, poses challenges for future profitability. The company's financial health remains stable, supported by solid equity and cash reserves, but addressing profitability issues will be crucial for sustained growth.Income Statement
Incyte has shown solid revenue growth over the years, with a 15% increase in 2024 compared to the previous year. However, margins have compressed, with the EBIT margin dropping significantly from 16.8% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at around 92.6% in 2024, indicating strong product pricing power. Despite the revenue growth, net income has decreased, resulting in a net profit margin of just 0.8% in 2024.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 in 2024, indicating minimal leverage. The equity ratio is healthy at 63.3%, reflecting strong shareholder equity relative to total assets. However, the return on equity has decreased to 0.9% in 2024 from 11.5% in 2023, highlighting reduced profitability on equity investments.80
Positive
Cash Flow
Incyte's operating cash flow decreased by 32.4% in 2024 compared to 2023, impacting cash-based profitability. Free cash flow also declined, but the company maintains a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio, however, shows reduced efficiency at 10.3 in 2024.72
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.24B | 3.70B | 3.39B | 2.99B | 2.67B | Gross Profit |
| 3.93B | 3.44B | 3.19B | 2.84B | 2.54B | EBIT |
| 61.37M | 620.52M | 579.44M | 585.78M | -240.29M | EBITDA |
| 408.16M | 919.43M | 599.64M | 630.20M | -178.24M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 32.62M | 597.60M | 340.66M | 948.58M | -295.70M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 2.16B | 3.66B | 3.24B | 2.35B | 1.80B | Total Assets |
| 5.44B | 6.78B | 5.84B | 4.93B | 3.56B | Total Debt |
| 37.96M | 38.29M | 44.64M | 34.27M | 34.86M | Net Debt |
| -1.65B | -3.18B | -2.91B | -2.02B | -1.48B | Total Liabilities |
| 2.00B | 1.59B | 1.47B | 1.16B | 949.65M | Stockholders Equity |
| 3.45B | 5.19B | 4.37B | 3.77B | 2.61B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 249.07M | 449.00M | 892.11M | 568.48M | -311.98M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 335.34M | 496.49M | 969.94M | 749.49M | -124.60M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 157.52M | -207.68M | -78.54M | -207.70M | -269.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -2.02B | -20.03M | -794.00K | 6.18M | 71.71M |
Incyte Technical Analysis
Negative
55.17
Price Trends
67.24
Negative
69.60
Negative
67.75
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.67
Positive
32.10
Neutral
40.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INCY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.91, below the 50-day MA of 67.24, and below the 200-day MA of 67.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for INCY.
Incyte Risk Analysis
Incyte disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Incyte reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Incyte Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $10.92B | 10.64 | 23.16% | ― | 30.43% | 82.29% | |
79 Outperform | $9.89B | 19.94 | 23.13% | ― | 18.49% | 176.71% | |
78 Outperform | $11.34B | 27.02 | 8.05% | ― | 17.35% | 151.40% | |
78 Outperform | $13.15B | 11.90 | 19.23% | ― | 23.63% | 25.66% | |
66 Neutral | $11.39B | 217.04 | 0.76% | ― | 14.76% | -88.32% | |
53 Neutral | $8.25B | ― | 357.68% | ― | 36.09% | 22.96% | |
48 Neutral | $6.36B | 1.28 | -45.04% | 2.64% | 19.24% | 1.69% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
INCY
Incyte
55.17
0.25
0.46%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
56.32
-35.14
-38.42%
EXEL
Exelixis
34.46
11.81
52.14%
UTHR
United Therapeutics
278.89
41.65
17.56%
ASND
Ascendis Pharma
143.33
-7.71
-5.10%
GMAB
Genmab
18.01
-11.73
-39.44%
Incyte Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 10, 2025 | % Change Since: -25.58% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong revenue growth driven by products like Jakafi and Opzelura, significant progress in the pipeline with multiple FDA approvals, and a healthy financial position. However, challenges such as Medicare Part D dynamics, increased operating expenses, and potential pricing pressures were noted.Highlights
Strong Revenue Growth
2024 total revenues grew 15% versus 2023 to reach $4.2 billion. Jakafi net sales were $2.8 billion, growing 8% year-over-year.
Opzelura Performance
Opzelura revenue grew 50% to $508 million in 2024, driven by both new patients and refills in atopic dermatitis and vitiligo in the US, and expanding reimbursement outside the US.
Cash and Share Repurchase
Ended 2024 with $2.2 billion in cash and no debt. Completed a $2 billion share repurchase during 2024.
FDA Approvals and Pipeline Progress
FDA approved Niktimvo for chronic GVHD, and multiple other potential launches and approvals are expected in 2025, contributing potentially $1 billion in incremental revenues by 2029.
Pipeline Development
Plans to initiate at least three Phase 3 studies and expect four pivotal data readouts in 2025. Seven early-stage programs to generate informative data.
Strong Commercial Execution
Total revenues in Q4 2024 were $1.2 billion, up 16% versus the same period last year, driven by strong demand for Jakafi and Opzelura.
Lowlights
Medicare Part D Challenges
Continued challenges with Medicare Part D patients, though improvements were seen as patients returned to paid demand in 2024.
340B Program Impact
Expectations of lower net pricing for Jakafi due to IRA-imposed price increase caps and continued growth in 340B volumes.
High Operating Expenses
Total GAAP R&D expenses for Q4 were $466 million, a 5% increase, with full year 2024 R&D expenses increasing 14% year-over-year.
SG&A Expense Increase
Total GAAP SG&A expenses were $327 million for Q4, an 11% year-over-year increase.
Ruxolitinib XR Delays
Approval for ruxolitinib XR is contingent on the completion of stability studies expected by the end of 2025.
Company Guidance
Incyte's guidance for 2025 emphasizes a strong financial outlook and robust pipeline development. The company projects Jakafi net product revenue to grow 5% to 7% year-over-year, reaching $2.925 to $2.975 billion, driven by demand growth, particularly in polycythemia vera (PV). Opzelura is expected to generate $630 to $670 million, reflecting a 24% to 32% increase, buoyed by continued growth in atopic dermatitis and vitiligo, as well as potential pediatric atopic dermatitis approval. Incyte anticipates four product launches in 2025, including Niktimvo, with these launches potentially contributing $1 billion in incremental revenues by 2029. The company ended 2024 with $2.2 billion in cash and no debt, underscoring its strong financial position to support the anticipated 18 key milestones and continued pipeline advancements.Incyte Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Incyte Announces Retirement of Executive VP Barry Flannelly
Neutral
Jan 10, 2025
Incyte Corporation announced that Barry P. Flannelly, Executive Vice President and General Manager, North America, has retired from his role as of January 6, 2025. He will continue with the company until July 31, 2025, to aid in the transition of his responsibilities, ensuring a smooth handover to his successor.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.