PBF Energy (PBF) Risk Analysis

Beginning in 2022, record refining industry profits raised the concern of many public policy experts and federal and state policymakers, who have questioned whether these profits were justified, or whether they constituted a "windfall" to the industry and have proposed legislation that if enacted could adversely affect our profitability. In September 2022, California adopted Senate Bill No. 1322 ("SB 1322"), which requires refineries in California to report monthly on the volume and cost of the crude oil they buy, the quantity and price of the wholesale gasoline they sell, and the gross gasoline margin per barrel, among other information. The provisions of SB 1322 were effective January 2023. In March 2023, California adopted Senate Bill No. 2 (such statute, together with any regulations contemplated or issued thereunder, "SBx 1-2"), which, among other things, (i) authorized the establishment of a maximum gross gasoline refining margin ("GGRM") and the imposition of a financial penalty for profits above a maximum GGRM, (ii) significantly expanded the reporting obligations under SB 1322 and the Petroleum Industry Information Reporting Act of 1980, which include reporting requirements to the California Energy Commission ("CEC") for all participants in the petroleum industry supply chain in California (e.g., refiners, marketers, importers, transporters, terminals, producers, renewables producers, pipelines, and ports), (iii) created the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight within the CEC to analyze the data provided under SBx 1-2, and (iv) authorized the CEC to regulate the timing and other aspects of refinery turnaround and maintenance activities in certain instances. SBx 1-2 imposes increased and substantial reporting requirements, which include daily, weekly, monthly, and annual reporting of detailed operational and financial data on all aspects of our operations in California. The operational data includes any plans for turnaround and maintenance activities at our two California refineries and the way we expect to address the potential impacts on feedstock and product inventories in California as a result of such turnaround and maintenance activities. The provisions of SBx 1-2 became effective June 26, 2023. In September 2023, the Governor of the State of California directed the CEC to begin the regulatory processes concerning (i) potential penalties for exceeding a maximum GGRM and (ii) the timing of refinery turnarounds and maintenance. Consequently, the CEC adopted an order requiring an informational proceeding on a maximum GGRM and penalty under SBx 1-2. It also adopted an order initiating rulemaking activity under SBx 1-2 that will be focused on refinery maintenance and turnarounds. However, in August 2025, CEC adopted a resolution to pause rulemaking on a maximum GGRM and penalty for five years, but will continue to collect and analyze information to assess a maximum GGRM and penalty during the five-year pause. Following the adoption of SBx 1-2, in October 2024, California adopted Assembly Bill No. 1 (such statute, together with any regulations contemplated or issued thereunder, "ABx 2-1") which authorizes the CEC to consider the effects of refiners' inventories of fuel and feedstocks and blending components on the price of transportation fuels in California. The bill further authorizes the CEC, by regulation, to develop and impose requirements for refiners operating in the state to maintain minimum levels of inventories of refined transportation fuels meeting California specifications, including any feedstocks and blending components, as specified. Specifically, the bill provides that the CEC: (i) may establish criteria that refiners must meet before commencing a turnaround or maintenance event, including requiring California's petroleum refiners to have resupply plans and arrangements to cover their loss in production, as specified; (ii) is authorized to develop and impose requirements on California refiners to maintain minimum levels of inventories of refined transportation fuels meeting California specifications; (iii) is prohibited from adopting minimum inventory regulations unless it finds that the benefits outweigh the potential costs to consumers; and (iv) is required to annually re-evaluate these factors and provide a report to the Legislature concluding whether the regulation meets the cost effectiveness test. To the extent that the CEC in the future establishes a maximum GGRM and imposes a financial penalty for profits above such maximum GGRM, inventory requirements, or timing of turnaround schedules, our financial results and profitability could be adversely affected. Our results of operations and our financial performance could also be adversely impacted to the extent that restrictions on turnaround and maintenance activities are imposed by the CEC. We cannot reasonably predict the impact that the full implementation of SBx 1-2 or ABx 2-1 will have on our California operations or our Company nor can we predict the impact that similarly focused legislation or actions in other jurisdictions in which we operate our refineries may have. The legislation in California, and the future enactment of similar legislation in any of the other jurisdictions could adversely impact our business, results of operations, profitability and cash.

Product liability and liability arising from our operations are significant risks. Substantial damage awards have been made in certain jurisdictions against manufacturers and resellers of petroleum products based upon claims for injuries and property damage caused by the use of or exposure to various products. Failure of our products to meet required specifications or claims that a product is inherently defective could result in product liability claims from third parties, including our shippers and customers, and also arise from contaminated or off-specification product in commingled pipelines and storage tanks and/or defective fuels. We may also be subject to personal injury claims arising from incidents that occur in connection with or relating to our operations. Product liability and personal injury claims against us could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.

We are subject to extensive tax liabilities, including federal, state, local and foreign taxes such as income, excise, sales/use, payroll, franchise, property, gross receipts, withholding and ad valorem taxes. New tax laws and regulations and changes in existing tax laws and regulations, such as the IRA, are continuously being enacted or proposed and could result in increased expenditures for tax liabilities in the future. These liabilities are subject to periodic audits by the respective taxing authorities, which could increase our tax liabilities. Subsequent changes to our tax liabilities as a result of these audits may also subject us to interest and penalties. Also, uncertainties remain with respect to current or contemplated legal, political or regulatory developments that may impose taxes or penalties on profits, windfalls, or margins above certain levels. There can be no certainty that our federal, state, local or foreign taxes could be passed on to our customers.

The U.S. federal government under previous presidential administrations took a number of actions to address GHG emissions. For example, both houses of Congress actively considered legislation to reduce emissions of GHGs, such as carbon dioxide and methane, including proposals to: (i) establish a cap and trade system, (ii) create a federal renewable energy or "clean" energy standard requiring electric utilities to provide a certain percentage of power from such sources, and (iii) create enhanced incentives for use of renewable energy and increased efficiency in energy supply and use. In addition, EPA has taken steps to regulate GHGs under the existing federal Clean Air Act ("CAA"). EPA has adopted regulations limiting GHG emissions for light- and medium-duty vehicles and heavy-duty highway vehicles. EPA has also adopted regulations addressing the permitting of GHG emissions from stationary sources, and requiring the reporting of GHG emissions from specified large GHG emission sources, including refineries. However, the current U.S. presidential administration has expressed a different approach with respect to U.S. climate, environmental, and energy policies and has revoked many of the existing executive orders and directives, and has indicated an intention to modify or eliminate many of the aforementioned laws and regulations, several of which are also currently being litigated, or may be subject to future legal challenges. However, the ultimate timing and outcome with respect to any modifications or eliminations of such laws and regulations, which may require action by the U.S. Congress or a federal agency or department, as well as pending or future litigation, are currently unknown and are subject to considerable uncertainty. It is also currently uncertain whether and to what extent any U.S. state and local governments may still pursue the prior administration's agenda on such matters. In addition, various states, individually as well as in some cases on a regional basis, have taken steps to control GHG emissions, including adoption of GHG reporting requirements, cap and trade systems and renewable portfolio standards. For example, the State of California's AB 32 imposes a statewide cap on GHG emissions, including emissions from transportation fuels, with the aim of returning the state to 1990 emission levels by 2020. Also, in September 2016, the State of California enacted Senate Bill 32, which further reduces GHG emissions targets to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Two regulations implemented to achieve these goals are Cap-and-Trade and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard ("LCFS"). In 2012, CARB implemented Cap-and-Trade. This program currently places a cap on GHG emissions and we are required to acquire a sufficient number of credits to cover emissions from our refineries and our in-state sales of gasoline and diesel. In 2009, CARB adopted the LCFS, which required a 10% reduction in the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel by 2020. In 2022, California enacted Assembly Bill 1279 which requires the state to achieve a GHG reduction target of 85 percent below 1990 levels by 2045 and overall carbon neutrality by 2045. CARB also amended the LCFS in 2024, which requires a 30 percent reduction by 2030 and 90 percent reduction by 2045 in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels (compared to a 2010 baseline). Compliance is achieved through blending lower carbon intensity biofuels into gasoline and diesel or by purchasing credits. Compliance with each of these programs is facilitated through a market-based credit system. If sufficient credits are unavailable for purchase or we are unable to pass through costs to our customers, we may have to pay a higher price for credits or if we are otherwise unable to meet our compliance obligations, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. Additionally, on September 23, 2020, the California Governor issued Executive Order N-79-20 ("N-79-20 Order") intended to further reduce GHG emissions within the state. The N-79-20 Order sets a 2035 goal of no new sale of internal combustion engines for passenger cars and pickup trucks within California, and a 2045 goal of no new sale of internal combustion engine medium- and heavy-duty trucks, and off-road vehicles and equipment. However, the N-79-20 Order would still allow used internal combustion engine vehicles to be used and sold after these dates. In an effort to accomplish the 2035 goal, on August 25, 2022, CARB voted unanimously to adopt the Advanced Clean Cars II ("ACCII") regulations. According to CARB, the ACCII regulations will rapidly scale down light-duty passenger car, truck, and SUV emissions starting with the 2026 model year through 2035. The regulations are two-pronged. First, they amend the California Zero-emission Vehicle Regulation to require an increasing number of zero-emission vehicles, and rely on advanced vehicle technologies, including battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, to meet air quality and climate change emissions standards. Second, the regulations amend the California Low-emission Vehicle Regulations to include increasingly stringent standards for gasoline cars and heavier passenger trucks to continue to reduce smog-forming emissions while the sector transitions toward 100% electrification by 2035. Similar to the ACCII, on April 28, 2023, CARB voted unanimously to adopt the Advanced Clean Fleet ("ACF") regulations with the goal of achieving a zero-emission truck and bus fleet by 2045 everywhere feasible, and significantly earlier for certain market segments such as last mile delivery and drayage applications. The initial focus of ACF is on high-priority fleets with vehicles that are suitable for early electrification, their subhaulers, and entities that hire them. However, in June 2025, the current U.S. presidential administration signed into law three Congressional Review Act resolutions, approved by congress, revoking CAA waivers that were granted by the previous presidential administration that allowed California to set its own stringent vehicle emissions standards (i.e., ACCII and ACF). California and other states have challenged the revocation of the CAA waivers. While the CAA resolutions are currently being litigated, it is currently uncertain whether and to what extent California, other states and local governments will still pursue the vehicle emission standards. In the event we do incur increased costs as a result of increased efforts to control GHG emissions through future adopted regulatory requirements, we may not be able to pass these costs to our customers. These future regulatory requirements also could adversely affect demand for the refined products that we produce. Any increased costs or reduced demand could materially and adversely affect our business and results of operations.

Our future success depends to a large extent on the services of our senior executives and other key employees. Our business depends on our continuing ability to recruit, train and retain highly qualified employees in all areas of our operations, including engineering, accounting, business operations, finance and other key back-office and mid-office personnel. Furthermore, our operations require skilled and experienced employees with proficiency in multiple tasks. The competition for these employees is intense, and the loss of these executives or employees could harm our business. If any of these executives or other key personnel resigns or becomes unable to continue in his or her present role and is not adequately replaced, our business operations could be materially adversely affected.

Our Toledo, Chalmette, and Torrance refineries receive a significant portion of their crude oil through our owned, as well as third-party, pipelines. These pipelines include the Enbridge system, Capline and Mid-Valley pipelines for supplying crude to our Toledo refinery, the MOEM Pipeline and CAM Pipeline for supplying crude to our Chalmette refinery and the San Joaquin Pipeline, San Ardo and Coastal Pipeline systems for supplying crude to our Torrance refinery. Additionally, our Toledo, Chalmette, Torrance and Martinez refineries deliver a significant portion of the refined products through pipelines. These pipelines include pipelines such as the Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. and Buckeye Partners L.P. pipelines at the Toledo refinery, the Collins pipeline at our Chalmette refinery, the Jet Pipeline to the Los Angeles International Airport, the Product Pipeline to Vernon and the Product Pipeline to Atwood at our Torrance refinery and the KinderMorgan SFPP North Pipeline at our Martinez refinery. We could experience an interruption of supply or delivery, or an increased cost of receiving crude oil and delivering refined products to market, if the ability of these pipelines to transport crude oil or refined products is disrupted because of accidents, weather interruptions, governmental regulation, terrorism, other third-party action or casualty or other events. The Delaware City rail unloading facilities and the assets acquired in connection with the acquisition of CPI Operations LLC (the "East Coast Storage Assets"), allow our East Coast Refining System to source WTI-based crudes from Western Canada and the Mid-Continent, which may provide significant cost advantages versus traditional Brent-based international crudes in certain market environments. Any disruptions or restrictions to our supply of crude by rail due to problems with third-party logistics infrastructure or operations or as a result of increased regulations, could increase our crude costs and negatively impact our results of operations and cash flows. Due to the common carrier regulatory obligation applicable to interstate oil pipelines, capacity allocation among shippers can become contentious in the event demand is in excess of capacity. Therefore, nominations by new shippers or increased nominations by existing shippers may reduce the capacity available to us. Any prolonged interruption in the operation or curtailment of available capacity of the pipelines that we rely upon for transportation of crude oil and refined products could have a further material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In addition, substantial weather-related conditions could impact our relationships and arrangements with our major customers and suppliers by materially affecting the normal flow of crude oil and refined products, especially seaborne transactions. For example, natural disasters or severe weather events (such as hurricanes, earthquakes or extreme cold) could damage transportation infrastructures, impede access to waterways and lead to interruptions of our operations, including our ability to deliver our products, or increases in costs to receive crude oil.

A significant portion of our profitability is derived from the ability to purchase and process crude oil feedstocks that historically have been less expensive than benchmark crude oils, such as the heavy, sour crude oils processed at our Delaware City, Paulsboro, Chalmette, Torrance and Martinez refineries. For our Toledo refinery, aside from recent crude differential volatility, purchased crude prices have historically been above the WTI benchmark, however, such crude slate typically results in favorable refinery production yield. For all locations, these crude oil differentials can vary significantly from quarter to quarter depending on overall economic conditions and trends and conditions within the markets for crude oil and refined products. Any change in these crude oil differentials may have an impact on our earnings. Our rail investment and strategy to acquire cost advantaged Mid-Continent and Canadian crude, which are priced based on WTI, could be adversely affected when the WTI/Dated Brent or related differentials narrow. A narrowing of the WTI/Dated Brent differential may result in our Toledo refinery losing a portion of its crude oil price advantage over certain of our competitors, which negatively impacts our profitability. In addition, imbalances between the production and capacity to export crude in Canada and reduced supply of heavy, sour grades of crude oil in general due to production curtailments or sanction restrictions may continue to result in price volatility and the narrowing of the WTI/WCS, Mars/Brent, and other light heavy differentials, and may reduce our refining margins and adversely affect our profitability and earnings. Divergent views have been expressed as to the expected magnitude of changes to these crude differentials in future periods. Any continued or further narrowing of these differentials could have a material adverse effect on our business and profitability. Additionally, governmental and regulatory actions, including sanctions against oil exporting countries and decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to restrict crude oil production levels and executive actions by the U.S. presidential administration to advance certain energy infrastructure projects such as the Keystone XL pipeline or Enbridge's Line 5 pipeline, may continue to impact crude oil prices and crude oil differentials. Recent U.S. actions related to Venezuela's oil sector have included sanction-related seizures of certain oil tankers, as well as public statements by the U.S. presidential administration indicating that authorized sales of Venezuelan crude oil into the U.S. have commenced. While these developments may present opportunities through increased crude oil supply and improved crude oil differentials, they also remain subject to significant political, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainty. Any increase in crude oil prices or unfavorable movements in crude oil differentials due to such actions or changing regulatory environment may negatively impact our ability to acquire crude oil at economical prices and could have a material adverse effect on our business and profitability.

Business closings or reduced activity and layoffs in the markets we operate may adversely affect demand for our refined products. Deterioration of general economic conditions or weak demand levels could require additional actions on our part to lower our operating costs, including temporarily or permanently ceasing to operate units at our facilities. There may be significant incremental costs associated with such actions. Deterioration of global and regional economic conditions may negatively affect our margins and harm our liquidity and ability to repay our outstanding debt and the trading price of PBF Energy's Class A common stock.

Our refining operations compete with domestic refiners and marketers in regions of the United States in which we operate, as well as with domestic refiners in other regions and foreign refiners that import products into the United States. In addition, we compete with other refiners, producers and marketers in other industries that provide means to satisfy the energy and fuel requirements of our industrial, commercial and individual consumers. Certain of our competitors have larger and more complex refineries, and may be able to realize lower per-barrel costs or higher margins per barrel of throughput. Several of our principal competitors are integrated national or international oil companies that are larger and have substantially greater resources than we do and access to proprietary sources of controlled crude oil production. Unlike these competitors, we obtain substantially all of our feedstocks from unaffiliated sources. We are not engaged in the petroleum exploration and production business and therefore do not produce any of our crude oil feedstocks. We do not have a retail business and therefore are dependent upon others for outlets for our refined products. Because of their integrated operations and larger capitalization, these companies may be more flexible in responding to volatile industry or market conditions, such as shortages of crude oil supply and other feedstocks or intense price fluctuations and they may also be able to obtain more favorable trade credit terms. Newer or upgraded refineries will often be more efficient than our refineries, which may put us at a competitive disadvantage. We have taken significant measures to maintain our refineries including the installation of new equipment and redesigning older equipment to improve our operations. However, these actions involve significant uncertainties, since upgraded equipment may not perform at expected throughput levels, the yield and product quality of new equipment may differ from design specifications and modifications may be needed to correct equipment that does not perform as expected. Any of these risks associated with new equipment, redesigned older equipment or repaired equipment could lead to lower revenues or higher costs or otherwise have an adverse effect on future results of operations and financial condition. Over time, our refineries or certain refinery units may become obsolete, or be unable to compete, because of the construction of new, more efficient facilities by our competitors.